[Spoilers] rho21 follows the works of Homer... D'OH!

[rho21]

Turn 95

Score tracking
The Aztecs finished a commercial hub and gained two pop. Or possibly finished another district and a settler.

Western Theatre
The damaged sword from a few turns back is up to support the eagle warrior, for some reason left within range of my chariots. Here's the view at the start of my turn:

I send in Aryabhata to see if there are any more units coming from behind them. Nothing visible. I guess they're not aware quite how many chariots I have here...
The first chariot (on the forest) attacks at 30v28, dealing 29 damage and suffering 25.
The other chariot in range attacks at 30v25, dealing 38 damage and suffering 21.
That leaves the eagle with maybe 5hp left and nowhere to run. I suppose the sword could try to fight a rearguard action but that would just get both units killed. Most likely the sword will run while the eagle will use its dying moments to kick Aryabhata back to Xenocrates again.

Housekeeping
Education complete, stirrups next (1 turn) as I don't have any more chariots to build.
Military Training complete, straight on towards Mercenaries, due in 6. Fingers crossed that's soon enough.

At Apollonius, I had been planning to harvest the stone next turn through the walls. But I don't really have anything to spend the production on. There's only a little left in the shrine anyway. I'd like a temple, but that requires Theology and I don't want another turn of detour until after Mercenaries is in. Equally I'd be happy to overflow into a district, but there isn't one I want to place yet: a commercial hub where the rice is is perahaps a good option. I could overflow into a settler instead, but that always feels like a waste when there's +50% available on production anyway.

My other cities without walls are Aristaeus, Menaechmus and Pythagoras. The first two definitely want to get a chop done sooner rather than later, so I want to run Limes anyway. Especially as Aristaeus needs to actually build its walls before the chop can happen, so 6 turns in the policy is fine.

For the next 6 turns, I can have any 4 out of:

• Conscription (14/turn) - well duh
  
• Limes (+100% walls) - see above
  
• Veterancy (+30% encampment + buildings) - only affects Xenocrates, so about 3.5/turn. Just not enough to be pulling its weight.
  
• Urban planning (7 per turn, before multipliers) - still so valuable
  
• Colonization (+50% settlers) - great timing for this, with Pythagoras and Euclid looking for something to do
  
• Caravanseries (6/turn) - seems good in the run up to doing upgrades, may make the difference between 4 and 5 upgrades
  

Oof, tough choice. I think on balance I'm going to leave out Limes. I can live without those boosted chops for the time being.

The Aztecs matched me on 5 envoys in Geneva. Hopefully that's the envoy from Mercenaries that I think they finished last turn. Handily, I just finished Military Training which comes with its own envoy. I go to 6 envoys for more bonus science; Geneva declares war on the Aztecs again, cutting 4 off their science rate.

Lots more happened this turn.

• Pythagoras and Euclid started settlers. They are currently due in 7 and 8 turns respectively, though of course the second of those will become more costly.
  
• The builder at Euclid placed another mine while the one at Pythagoras placed a farm (I'm making a farming triangle there).
  
• The trader (just finished at Euclid) gets sent straight to Geneva for 8, 2 as Geneva has finished its harbour. No point rebasing it first, my roads are fine for now. Now making 30/turn.
  
• Apollonius continues working on the shrine, due in 4. Looking forward to getting some missionaries out.
  
• At Aristaeus, I harvest the sheep. This yields 85 and , immediately growing the city by a size. It will grow again next turn too. This gives it 4 population, so it can place the third +4 campus. It continues to build the granary it now needs desperately for housing, due in 4.
  
• Menaechmus starts work on a settler. It doesn't have much else to do right now, and I'm going to want one before too long. Going to take a while, so will probably get switched out before it's done.
  

Whew, busy turn.

[rho21]

Turn 96

Score tracking
The Aztecs have finished yet another commercial hub, and probably another district besides and gained a pop. Still pretty relentless growth. A drop in their gold reserves suggests an upgrade, perhaps a crossbow somewhere. Certainly can't see one right now. Their city strength has not increased, so it's not a knight.

Western Theatre
Both Aztec units have disappeared from view, and Aryabhata has been kicked. An investigatory chariot reveals the eagle warrior on the oasis and the sword down on the C15a site. The chariot finishes off the eagle warrior, taking 20 damage into the bargain. It is on 59/100, there are no new enemy units in view. Even if it is surprised and killed by units in the fog, the trade will have been worthwhile for a highly promoted eagle. Hopefully I can retreat it for healing next turn though.

The sword I could plink with an archer, but there doesn't seem to be all that much point as it would delay healing the other injured chariot Instead I just manoeuvre units around a bit, to prepare to stake a claim to as much of the passage between the lake and the ridge as my forces can manage.

Aryabhata moves up that way again. There is plenty of time before I need to use his power to claim tech boosts. Perhaps I'll be able to discover a bit more land this time.

Housekeeping
Stirrups completed, military engineering started, due in 5.

The Aztecs will now claim the first merchant in 5 turns. I will be able to buy it with approximately 450 ahead of time if I want. Is this a good use of half my reserves? I think the faith would be better used buying missionaries and campus buildings, then possibly units later. Still, the merchant would work particularly well for me.

[Garath]

Presuming the sword runs south, it might be worth seeing a couple more tiles by stepping the chariot SW off the oasis before running home to heal? I have to admit I'm not sure how much they matter - I just like exploring!

[rho21]

Turn 97

Score tracking
Aztec has grown a pop and recruited Temujin. I'll be keeping a close eye out for movement and upgrades. No sign of either this turn.
Kongo finished an Ngao Mbeba, probably. Might have been a chariot. Anyway, their military strength is on the up.

Western Theatre
Advancing one of my undamaged chariots reveals an Aztec chariot sitting on a horse pasture 2N of Near Wild Heaven. That means I can't fit in a move SW with the damaged chariot and still get all units out of range of the revealed chariot, so I just fall it back instead. Aryabhata will be uncovering new tiles from next turn anyway.

Housekeeping
Nothing much to do this turn except move builders around.

Further to last turn's musing about patronage of the merchant, here are the advantages it would offer me:

• An extra trade route worth 6, 2 per turn at least once I've built the trader for it.
  
• That would be the fourth trade route, so the boost for Medieval Faires without having to build another commercial hub. May not have time to get this otherwise, I'm running low on boosted civics. (192.5)
  
• The boost for Mercantilism (327.5)
  
• One city that offers +2/turn to foreign trade routes, gaining the same bonus itself for each one sent there. Might tempt Kongo to send some trade routes.
  

Put like that, it seems like a bit of a steal for around 400. The Aztecs could take it first, of course, but they only have ~120 so they'd have to spend for it. Any gold they don't spend on upgrades right now is an advantage for me.

Final positions in the west:

[rho21]

Turn 98

Score tracking
Uh oh, here we go.
Aztec finished a civic, a tech, an encampment and a settler. They also spent a little over 700, presumably on upgrades. Their city strength has increased commensurate with owning at least one knight. They also matched me on envoys in Geneva (gaining themselves 12 /turn or something like that). From this I conclude that they must have just finished mercenaries. They've had something else from that column for quite a while now, pretty much has to be medieval faires. Merchant Confederation explains some of their income, but I'm still surprised they bothered going there before mercenaries.

Southern Theatre
My hoplites are finally healed (well, 100 and 96). They get moving again and immediately find a barbarian scout.

Western Theatre
Near Wild Heaven has finished its walls. Some Aztec units have shuffled about, but there's nothing big and scary visible. Aryabhata's first move reveals that the chariot I spotted last turn is now a knight... and it has the great general bonus. I guess the Aztecs are coming this way. 5-move 53-strength knights are really very scary right now.
My troops in the north beat a very hasty retreat towards the line of the river. If the knight chases hard, they won't all make it. Just 3 turns until I have mercenaries myself. Hopefully it will take at least that long to bring their force to bear.

Aryabhata heads up onto a hill in the hopes of overseeing the advance without being kicked, though he can be reached by that knight because it goes *miles*.

Housekeeping
I've decided to spend the on the great merchant. The trick is doing so as late as possible without Aztec getting the same idea (its is otherwise worthless). Right now they have 34/60 points, gaining 5/turn, so done in 6 turns. Patronage costs 150 + 10/point. That makes 460 for me right now, decreasing by 20/turn. The Aztecs would need to pay 410, decreasing by 50/turn. If I've been counting correctly they have around 135 available right now, going up by a little over 4/turn. So they'll not at any point be able to afford the patronage. Even so, I'll pay out one turn early (on turn 102) just in case they finish a market or something.

[rho21]

Turn 99

Score tracking
Kongo finished a tech and a civic and also completed a third theatre square. Shame they didn't wait on that until I could get religion to them, as that would give them a free apostle.
The Aztecs built a harbour and a market. I'll keep a close eye on their great merchant points. Their power has jumped by 170 points to 748.

Southern Theatre
Hoplites move up and one hurts the barbarian scout - rather bad roll, might have killed it but only did 73 damage. I'm sure it will run away and pester Kongo now. The hoplites also find yet another barbarian sword, guarding a camp. Hopefully I can clear that soon, even if it does mean more time healing for the hoplites.

Western Theatre
The Aztecs have very kindly positioned 4 knights and the general right next to Aryabhata to give me an idea of what's coming my way. Inspecting the support bonuses indicates there's one more unit out of sight next to the general, potentially more beyond that. I decide to move Aryabhata to scout out more terrain rather than potentially get sight on one more Aztec unit because this means they will have to slow their attack if they want to kick him. And if they don't, I should get even more intelligence on attacking forces.

Will they head for Menaechmus, or are they looking to swing into the NW of Xenocrates, limiting the effects of the encampment? Only time will tell.

My double-promoted archer in the north is still under threat if the kinghts plan to move forwards as fast as possible but my other units will certainly make it over the river. Annoying as I realised a few turns ago that I'd mismoved that archer and should have been retreating it for upgrade. Didn't expect it to potentially cost its life though.
Perhaps the knights will have to go slowly to not get ahead of any crossbow support they have.

Elsewhere, Brussels is finally looking to be in trouble, its walls are getting low. Still no real indication whether that's Kongo or the Aztecs.

Housekeeping
Shrine finished in Apollonius. I buy two missionaries for 310 total and get the city started on a settler.
Aristaeus has finished its granary. I start work on the campus for now, though I plan to chop most of its cost once Limes is available again.

A builder is moving up to chop Menaechmus' walls under Limes if I get the chance.

So, where are the missionaries going? It's important here to understand how religious spread works in a one religion situation. Each city gets 50 atheist pressure per population point. In order for the city to follow the religion, I believe you need the total religious pressure to exceed the total atheist pressure. This is why sometimes a city has, say, 2 followers from 4 population and is religious, sometimes it looks exactly the same in the interface except it doesn't follow the religion.

I'm not sure what happens to religious pressure when a city grows. I assume it scales proportional with the population growth, as city growth doesn't seem to cause cities to cease being religious.

A missionary charge is worth 200 pressure, meaning it can instantly convert a size 4 city, but not larger without some passive spread to help.

Euclid, Aristaeus, Raw Herring and Kroket are all receiving 6 pressure by passive spread per turn right now, other cities - in range of just Hippocrates - are getting only 2. The religion was founded on turn 86, giving enough passive pressure for every one of my cities to embrace Parallelism with one missionary charge except Xenocrates and Pythagoras. And Pythagoras won't be far off.

So I'm thinking to send one missionary to Aristaeus, Pythagoras and Menaechmus. This should give enough passive pressure to convert Euclid in short order too.
The second missionary will spend its charges in Gehaktbal and Xenocrates (may as well get it close to conversion). Not sure about the third charge. Maybe another in Xenocrates, maybe convert a second Kongolese city.

Incidentally, the displayed number of followers is population x religion pressure / total religious pressure, rounded to the nearest whole number. So for example Euclid, which has 4 population and 72 passive pressure so far displays 4 x 72 / 278 = 1.04 => 1 follower.

The interface claims 29 turns until conversion though, which is a bit strange. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding something. Or perhaps the interface is just wrong.

[Garath]

Yikes, this is going to be close. If they drive in on you as quickly as they can, your first natural turn of shooting them will also be the first turn you could upgrade to crossbows? Am I reading that right?

If so, let's hope they move a bit slower than that and just manage to miss their timing window!

[rho21]

The great general does move one slower than the knights, which holds them up a little. But yeah, this is going to be tight if they charge straight in.

Incidentally, Hannibal has moved back to Xenocrates so he can redeploy as required to meet the Aztec thrust. The sword will be heading back shortly too, I expect, but right now it gives invaluable information on Aztec deployments on the flank of Xenocrates.

[Garath]

Those moves make sense. I mean, you can't exactly abandon Xenocrates here - there's far too much chance of a pincer movement since four knights, scary though they are, hardly represent their entire mobile military force!

[rho21]

Turn 100

Score tracking
Kongo has gained a pop (as have I, in Xenocrates).
The Aztecs finished an encampment and a tech, plus gained a pop point.

Southern Theatre
The barbarian sword moved out of its camp and attacked a hoplite, suffering 40-odd damage and only inflicting 16. A forest and hill mean I can only attack with one of the hoplites so I use the less damaged one. 50v42 results in 33-25 damage. That's a dead minimum attack roll and just off a maximum defence roll. Oh well, won't matter: the camp and sword both die next turn, barring a new unit spawning. Just in time for the big turn of upgrades.

Western Theatre
Near Wild Heaven has finished an encampment on the river 2SE (where the archer has been standing). I don't think it'll have any real impact on the game: if I have the chance to attack Near Wild Heaven I'll be approaching from the north, around the lake.

No sign of the Aztec knights, except that they kicked Aryabhata. If I had to guess, I'd say they're just behind the ridge, not wanting to climb onto it in case I have an ambush set up. Sadly, that would still give them a chance of catching my archer, but there is at least cause for hope. Every other unit is now behind the river line.

There's one possibility I need to watch out for: an attack along the coast aimed at Pythagoras. That would be very nasty if I didn't see it coming, but would leave their units extremely exposed if I did. I'll have to think about getting walls part-built there just in case.

Aryabhata's sterling service in the west is now complete, he rebases to Hippocrates and will fulfill his birthright shortly.

Housekeeping
Next turn's the big one, not much happening this turn.

Here's a view of the hoplites in the south, as I doubt I'll have a chance to show it again soon.

---

Round-number roundup™


Civ Comparison

Civ	Cities	Pop	Techs	Civics	Gold	Districts	Military estimate
Aztec	12	60	23 (+67.1/turn)	16 (+36.7/turn)	11 (+24/turn)	4 Encampments, Harbour, Holy site, 4 Commercial Hubs, 2 Campuses, Entertainment District	756 strength, maybe 18 units + a ram. About 8 of those are medieval.
Kongo	6	25	17 (+31.8/turn)	12 (+19.8/turn)	49(+1/turn)	2 Campuses, 3 Theatre squares	192 strength, maybe 7 units.
Greece	7	32	20 (+40.7/turn)	13 (+24.9/turn)	485 (+30/turn)	Encampment, Holy site, 2 Commercial Hubs, Campus, Acropolis	396 strength, 16 units + a ram. 4 builders.

The Aztecs' science rate is slightly inflated, as they temporarily have access to Geneva - I'm hoping they won't from next turn onwards. Similarly, a bunch of my numbers will jump upwards next turn, including science from a new campus and military strength thanks to upgrades. Doesn't change the fact that they're pulling away a bit now. Whatever, a lot comes down to the battle in the next few turns. If my defensive position and upgraded troops can win the day without excessive losses, there's still a chance this could be turned around.


Great People
Recruited so far:
Greece: General (classical), Prophet, Scientist.
Aztec: General (medieval)

Up now:

• (General) Jeanne d'Arc (240): Greece 13 + 1/turn, Aztec 8 +4/turn
  
• (Admiral) Themistocles (60): Aztec 1 +1/turn
  
• (Engineer) James of St George (120): no points yet
  
• (Merchant) Zhang Qian (60): Aztec 45 +6/turn, Greece 33 +2/turn
  
• (Prophet) Madhva Acharya(240): Aztec 41 +1/turn
  
• (Scientist) Emilie du Châtelet (240): Aztec 75 +4/turn, Kongo 58 +2/turn, Greece 27 +2/turn
  
• (Writer) Homer (60): Kongo 34.5 +1.5/turn, Greece 19 +1/turn
  The Artist and Musician look similar but with higher bars.
  

As predicted 10 turns ago, the Aztecs are indeed attacking with their great general, and have accelerated to be almost ready to claim the first merchant. Until I buy it from under their noses, anyway.
No point competing with Kongo for writers etc, especially if it will help them catch up. I don't have time to devote to cultural projects right now anyway.


Research and boosts

Tech	Cost remaining (assuming boost)	Boost	Turns until boost
Sailing	25	Coastal city	~10
Celestial Navigation	60	2 sea improvements	1 (Scientist)
Shipbuilding	100	2 galleys	1 (Scientist)
Military Tactics	150	Already boosted
Castles	195	Have a 6-slot government	1 (Scientist)
Cartography	270	2 harbours	??
Mass Production	270	Lumbermill	~7
Banking	270	Guilds civic	~25
Gunpowder	270	Armoury	~15
Printing	270	2 universities	~15
Square Rigging	330	Kill with musket	~20
Astronomy	330	University next to mountain	~10
Metal Casting	330	2 crossbows	1
Siege Tactics	330	2 bombards	??

Still going along well; science production is about to jump significantly. Boosts are planned for the next little while, though the universities at Hippocrates and Pythagoras will need some effort (or ) to fit in. May be tricky if I need to build military, as looks likely.

Civic	Cost remaining (assuming boost)	Boost	Turns until boost
Recorded History	87.5	Build 2 campuses	1
Theology	13	Already boosted
Naval Tradition	100	Kill with quadrireme	??
Civil Service	137.5	Size 10 city	~20
Medieval Faires	192.5	4 trade routes	~8
Guilds	192.5	2 markets	~20
Divine Right	137.5	2 temples	??
Exploration	200	2 caravels	??
Humanism	270	Great Artist	??
Diplomatic Service	270	Alliance	~30?
Reformed Church	200	6 converted cities	~10
Mercantilism	327.5	Great merchant	2
The Enlightenment	327.5	Already boosted

Looks as though mercenaries (finishing right now) is just about in the nick of time. I'm going to need to make an effort to get a size 10 city in time for civil service. It will probably require harvesting a wheat at Xenocrates. Other boosts I want soon also require production investment (in varying amounts). It's going to be really tough to fit these in along with everything else that needs doing. Should probably have been doing a better job of planning these.