Community predictions added to the Game Eight preview page:
http://www.sullla.com/Civ4/civ4survivor5-8-preview.html
![[Image: survivor5-8-9.jpg]](http://www.sullla.com/Civ4/Survivor/S5/survivor5-8-9.jpg)
![[Image: survivor5-8-10.jpg]](http://www.sullla.com/Civ4/Survivor/S5/survivor5-8-10.jpg)
![[Image: survivor5-8-11.jpg]](http://www.sullla.com/Civ4/Survivor/S5/survivor5-8-11.jpg)
![[Image: survivor5-8-12.jpg]](http://www.sullla.com/Civ4/Survivor/S5/survivor5-8-12.jpg)
Stalin is the most popular pick but this one still seems to be pretty wide open.
Bobchillingworth: Predicting Stalin to win on the basis that he could conceivably attack any of his neighbors in any order and do well, particularly Washington, who will occupy a fair chunk of territory but otherwise remain largely inert. Stalin doesn't care enough about religion to get stuck in a toxic relationship with Isabella, who will probably drag down the Dutch after Willem founds and converts to one of the latter faiths, and the lack of copper means he probably won't launch his first invasion stupidly early. Cyrus has an oddly low peace weight, so he'll likely do okay by virtue of Genghis preferring to sabotage Darius and/or Willem.
Sir Colville of the Dale: Wait a minute... Is this the first time we could see the Hydra in AI Survivor? And are the smaller heads actually going to eat the big one? That's the real story here, not Stalin's perfect positioning.
ZincAlloy: I see Washington has been banished to the corner of irrelevance where he belongs, very good. And while I dream of a Persian Pair Power Hour, only Cyrus will see glory this match: Darius is first to die. To many low peace weights (and Isabella) surrounding him. I'm betting on an exciting game where Stalin conquers the entire south (eventually), but Cyrus wins a culture victory from second or third place. And for a non-existent bonus point, I'm predicting Willem survives long enough to research rifles!
Alhambram: Three leaders got good start for their starting techs: Isabella, Darius and Washington. However high peaceweight of Darius between Stalin and Temujin shall doom him. Isabella shall found 2nd and Holy City at river gems and tech away with claims,gems and holy shrine. Cyrus is doing well but his biggest mistake is going be founding 2nd religion and Willem is going be squeezed between Isabella and Cyrus and also forget to tech rifling again. Temujin and Stalin won’t research mysticism till turn 100 roughly and get behind others in terms of economy. Finally Isabella shall steamroll all civs with advanced units except Washington who is tucked away in corner safely.
BohemianSpoonyBard: Arstotzka would clearly stand trial of time! Its superior industry and army would conquer weak Kolechians of East then the reactionary Impor of North and then it would succeed in the Revolution! Glory to Cobrast... err, I meant Arstotzka!
MirrorG: Stalin has lots of juicy, high peace weight targets all around him, only slowed by the fact that if Isabella plants her holy river along that city, she could catch all three civs south of her in her religion. He may be able to get some help from Cyrus in making something of a low peace weight bloc, but with Temujin in the mix I think that corner of the field is going to be 'preoccupied' most of the time. My bet is Isabella catching Stalin in her religion and thus keeping the heat off her as he plows his way through Washington and Darius before eventually snowballing like Alex did last week.
c0lors: Stalin has a nice start, is well positioned to eat both Washington and Darius, and isn't Isabella. I usually like Cyrus, but I can only touch the hot stove that is "the AI can't improve any tiles around their capital with their starting techs and might just torpedo their own game to spite my picks" so many times in one season.
Tristan: I’m hesitant to pick Stalin because I see both of Stalins scouts went south towards the tundra, which is where he might settle (something I learned in the Game 7 from Justinian). I like Isabella to drop a center of the map Holy city to block a lot of people off. Don’t love the coastal start but 4/7 leaders start coastal. There’s also not a lot copper, which is something I like about Isabella’s start. If Willem founds his own later religion, I think that gets him eliminated by Isabella and her religious allies but I don’t see a very early elimination of anyone. If Cyrus gets bogged down in war with Genghis Khan, i think he eventually wins, but it takes him awhile. Whereas Isabella will hopefully plan a more well-timed attack.
Eauxps I. Fourgott: Ugh, this game was a mess to try and predict. I'd much rather see a game with Persia dominating, but I feel like Willem and Stalin have the best positions on the map. The only problem... neither of them has early copper!!!! Ultimately, I'm taking a gamble and picking them anyway, hoping that Izzy waits to attack until they get Iron Working and are secure. (Cyrus also doesn't have copper and is squeezed, which is why I have him as FTD, and I doubt Darius or Washington will pull the trigger on such an early attack.) If that does happen, then Financial will carry the day and Willem will go to space. At least, that's how I predict it will go. Would love to see the unlikely scenario where Darius and Washington partition Stalin early on and go to dominate the game instead.
Dark Savant: Stalin might ordinarily be an easy choice for winner, as he's got a lot of space and starting wet corn, but he's got no easy copper. That's proven time and time again to be a serious problem. This looks like a good time as any to bet on Persia and Persia doing well.
Amicalola: Ok, my picks are pretty weird here. The theory, at least, is that I think Willem is criminally underrated. Yes, the rifling thing is bad, but it doesn't matter every game, and Darius/Washington are here to take the heat for my man early on. He wins an early spaceship, I think. Meanwhile, Isabella actually has a seafood start, meaning she won't be dead in the water (heh) early on with her religious preferences. I think this is a rare game where her crusades can be successful, and though Willem will win, Isabella might have the most land by the end. Darius and Washington are the distractions for the aggressive leaders until Willem goes all Mansa on them later in the game. These two die at some point, while a couple of the aggressors probably survive to the lategame; no idea who, so it's lucky that isn't a scoring category. Early spaceship, go Willem!
Gargantua: A lot depends on whom Temujin declares on. Odds are Darius would be the victim. This won't proably be very effective because of strategic ressource distribution. Wilhe may use this opportunity, either by dogpilling, or by flipping captured cities with his dominant culture. I think Stalin has kind of the same victory conditions. But his starts is slightly less good and he couls have the problem of avoiding mysticism. The joker is Izzy. I hope, Wilhem will get her religion and avoid early aggression.
eyser24: The deciding factor for this game will be whether Stalin or Isabella rises in the east. Stalin's biggest weakness is that he is one of the AIs that may delay getting Mysticism and culture in his cities. I am liking his start though as he has a lot of land and even if he gets crowded in on one direction, he will have room to expand. If he survives, he can easily eat up Washington to the east, and/or Darius, and from there balloon. So if he does do the skipping Mysticism thing, he can come back from it like how Julius Caesar had a good game earlier this season. Isabella also has a huge chance of dominating the east if Stalin flounders and doesn't get culture. I think she is a scary AI if she is on the right side of a religious divide, and that could cause her to take out Stalin. There are many variables here, but I think Stalin is more likely to outperform Isabella based on starting location. Looking at the west, how does Cyrus not dominate? Genghis will collapse after ruining Darius's game, and Willem will be overwhelmed by Isabella and be a failure like in every game he has been in. Cyrus will come out on top and compete with either Stalin/Isabella, and the eastern power will have more land and thus be able to beat Cyrus in a 1v1.
RonJenzy: I mean, this is Stalin's game to lose, but as we've seen that's apparently the name of the game this season. Still, I can't in good faith vote against him. I think Cyrus is a good pick for second, as long as Genghis stays out of his hair long enough to get going. Darius is first to die because Washington's weird starting position protects the latter, while Darius is just kinda sitting in the middle of a bunch of low peace weight leaders. I mean, Willem could in theory win, I wouldn't blame someone for picking him, but I just don't see him being able to tech in peace in a game with several strong warmongers, especially since all but Cyrus plot at Pleased. I think it's more likely that Stalin and Cyrus carve up the map. I have a hard time choosing between Domination and Spaceship, but I think Cyrus would take too much of the map to let Stalin get an easy win, and could hold out against Stalin long enough to where the spaceship lands. But knowing my (and many others') luck this season, we're gonna see Isabella win by Domination on turn 275 with a strong second place by the Mongolians.
Japper007: Willem looks to be of to a good start ...but wait did I just hear Stalin's theme music??? *USSR anthem plays* Unbelievable Stalin with the steel chair!!!
Agni Neres: This is looking to be an interesting game! Four of seven AI are backstabbers who declare war at 'pleased' relations. Isabella finds herself in heaven, with seafood for her Fishing tech and, as the only player with Mysticism, unchallenged for as many religions as her petty little heart desires. Balancing the scale is the unfortunate Great Khan, who gets a seafood/flood plains start without Fishing, and more importantly no horses in sight for building his unique Keshiks. The middle of the board features two powerhouse financial leaders, either of whom could run away with the game. America and Blue Persia, on the opposite coasts, have an outside shot at Cultural victory should Willem and Darius deadlock. Stalin, surrounded by high peace-weight AI, looks to be the odd man out without a clear path forward. Those last two playoff spots will be well earned by the winners.
Bernn: I really don't like Cyrus's start in this game: he's saddled with a seafood heavy capital that doesn't work well with his starting techs and he's very liable to get squeezed by at least one of his neighbors. If Temujin settles north and grabs that copper, he could start putting some serious early pressure on Cyrus and I'm actually going there and putting Cyrus as my First To Die because of it. As for the winner, I'm incredibly tempted to go with Stalin because of his amazing past performances, but I think his winning streak is due to end. I'm going all in on the underdog Darius. It's his time to shine.
CymbalXL: I am predicting that everyone will forget about Washington who is tucked away in that corner. That will be their doom as Washington will backstab Stalin when he's bogged down in a war with Darius/Willem. G Wash will do something like Alex did in Game 7, albeit slower, and cruise to domination victory. High number of wars since Izzy will cause religious tension. Late finish since there are some tough AI in this game.
eggpoison: Genghis Khan without horses or copper will rush himself into oblivion to the benefit of the Persias and the high peace weight civs. But only one Persia is destined with the correct peace weight...
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And finally we have these short story contributions from Wyatan and Slashin' that had to be included despite their length:
Wyatan: Her shriek sent the royal palace into a hesitant turmoil. General Cortez rushed noncommittally to the throne room. A messenger was groveling before the Queen, in an attempt to allay the fury his message had unleashed. King Cyrus had embraced the Dutch heresy.
The plan had been a solid one. Faithful Darius had turned his kingdom into the anvil onto which the mongrelian hordes would crush from the West, and the Russian rabble from the East. President Washington, blessed be his gentle soul, would be the Hammer from the East, with Cyrus as his western counterpart. But he had betrayed. His armies scattered, chasing tundra barbarians. She knew who to was to blame, though...
She spotted Cortez. Her shrieking abated. In a surprisingly steady voice, she gave the order. "General, you are to leave immediately. Enough is enough. Bring me the head of the ugly little man." An outsider might understandably have been confused. But every one at the Court knew that "the ugly little man" did NOT refer to King Darius.
"Your majesty, may I ever so humbly suggest that we wait until the Dutch armies are off-position, readying for a southern assault ? It might also be advisable to pause the construction of the Great Temple, and re-allocate the craftsmen to the production of weapons and armours, for the time being." The sudden darkening of her expression made Cortez think that the messenger might have had the right idea after all...
"FOOL! THIS IS A HOLY WAR! PRAYERS AND TEMPLES ARE THE ONLY WEAPONS YOU NEDD !"
- "The Mad Queen", Orange Press, The Hague.
Slashin': The clock struck midnight, yet no one heard. The people slumbered, the streets deafeningly quiet, and nary a light source was present with one exception: A dim bulb that meekly greeted the night through one studio window of a large apartment complex. Through that window sat a man hunched over his desk, pouring his being into the manuscripts that laid before him well into the night.
The man prided himself in two things. The first was a fondness for history. He had received a bachelors at a respected institution in history and followed it up with a masters and phd in the English nation-state variety. Memorizing dates were his narcotic and interpreting events his aphrodisiac. The more esoteric the knowledge, the more strongly it resonated and satisfied his being. The subject matter lent strongly to his second trait: an uncanny ability to recognize strong argumentation and use them to distill seemingly unrelated events into interlocking narratives. He leveraged these traits in a contest on an alternate historical simulator, where he had kept up with confirmed time travellers Kjotleik and ThreeLeggedChicken and espers Wyatan and smithy despite lacking supernatural abilities of his own. It got to the point the man had to make his predictions at the very start of these simulations, lest the ignorant masses cast his predictions as word of god and incorporate them into their own, nullifying the entire purpose of the contest. And yet, despite his unwavering confidence in his abilities, nothing could have prepared him for the worded art before him.
"...working men of all countries, unite..." Sullla whispered softly, his finger trailing every gripping word of the last sentence until at last touching worn binding.
Sullla was no stranger to astute political treatises on human nature, even if his discipline was one of historical retrospection and not of political argumentation. He had read the works of Machiavelli, the authoritarian scriptures of Hobbes, the foundational texts of Locke and Aquinas, and the critical theories of Rosseau. Each of these political theorists made good arguments, and Sullla could see support for them in his own encyclopedic understanding of historical events. And yet, for every event that supported their conclusions, he envisioned three others that contradicted their words. Sullla could parse fallacious arguments from genuine ones, as well as recognize logical inconsistencies in an author's examples on how a series of events would play out to support their arguments. And he was not impressed...until coming across the Communist Manifesto.
Never before had words resembled art for Sullla until reading about Marxist critical theory. The arguments in the foundational paper for an entire political movement were immaculate, the logic consistent from beginning to end, the fallacious arguments kept to a minimum if any. And the more the prose connected to him, the more it upset him that history had not played out that way...yet.
"So why...have events not played out this way in human history?" the man thought to himself. "Unless..."
Game Eight Picking Contest Entry Form
Scoring was well below normal in this game with an average score of 5.50 points thanks to some of the community favorites face-planting in spectacular ways. We are continuing with our normal Friday date for next week's game. It's the Wildcard game where we're expecting some massive barbarian activity thanks to huge open areas in the arctic and antarctic. Who do you have this week?
![[Image: oUnQMc0.png]](https://i.imgur.com/oUnQMc0.png)