Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Roland]

Day 1 - Turn 83:
Lynch
8v: MJW (ya that one) ( Serdoa, Selrahc, Bobchillingworth, Cull, Mr. Nice Guy, Jkaen, Irgy, Lewwyn )
7v: Cull ( Meiz, Cull, uberfish, Sandover, Mardoc, scooter, novice )
3v: pocketbeetle ( Rowain, Bruindane, zakalwe )
3v: Lewwyn ( Ichabod, MJW (ya that one), fire&ice )
1v: novice ( pocketbeetle )
1v: Sandover ( Gold Ergo Sum )

Mayor
10v: novice ( Bobchillingworth, zakalwe, novice, Roland, Gold Ergo Sum, MJW (ya that one), Cull, Mr. Nice Guy, Serdoa, Mardoc )
7v: Rowain ( Ichabod, scooter, Rowain, Bruindane, uberfish, Sandover, Meiz )
1v: Meiz ( Selrahc )
1v: fire&ice ( Jkaen )
1v: Ichabod ( pocketbeetle )
1v: Mr. Nice Guy ( Irgy )
1v: Jkaen ( Lewwyn )
1v: Bruindane ( fire&ice )

Look at those Day 1 end-of-phase votes. Tell me what you see. I'll tell you what I think is there, beneath the surface.

Out of 6 candidates at the end of the day, statistically speaking we should have caught 1 'Wolf. The only possibility up there is Lewwyn - everyone else is a confirmed Villager. Now, I admit it's a weak argument, but it's there.

How many 'Wolves do you think they'd let on a single target? 2? 3 tops? Lewwyn voted for MJW (ya that one), and Selrahc followed it up with the 3rd vote on him (Serdoa was inbetwee). All 3 of them had the same reasons - MJW (ya that one) was too much of a bother to play with, and granted too much cover to other 'Wolves (including himself, if he was a 'Wolf). Now, with Lewwyn dropping off halfway through the day it gets a little iffy, as it does give an opening for at least 1 more 'Wolf (the only one I can think of would be Jkaen, but I'm still unconvinced, so roll with me here). At the last minute Lewwyn switches back to MJW (ya that one) - exactly what he set out to do from before the game even started. So, out of Serdoa, Jkaen, and Lewwyn who do you think is the most likely 'Wolf (or 'Wolves)? TO me, it's Lewwyn - and not Jkaen.

Now step down to runner-up Cull. We have Meiz, Mardoc, and scooter as the potentials, since both novice and I voted for Cull. Out of those three, who do you feel is the most 'Wolfish? At least one of them has to be a 'Wolf, and more probably two. It'd be highly suspect to have all three on the same target, especially with it coming down to a tie between MJW (ya that one) and Cull - novice would be the tie-breaker, as Mayor. So, at most I can see two 'Wolves on Cull. Given everything else we know, I'd lean towards Meiz and scooter, supported by the other evidence we have (or will have, as things progress).

We know no 'Wolves voted for Lewwyn nor novice, and with zakalwe being a probable Villager that would leave Bruindane as the sole 'Wolf on pocketbeetle. Gold Ergo Sum is still an unknown at this point, but with Lewwyn shooting off at the buzzer today I'm more inclined to think him innocent than I was before.

I think it's also worth noting that the only days scooter voted alongside either Meiz or Lewwyn were Day 1 (Meiz), and Day 6 (Meiz & Lewwyn).

Again, this is all circumstantial, but I want people to understand how I got to where I am, as I'm sure Mardoc's not the only one who was puzzled at my initial vote. I did my best to keep track, in my mind, noteworthy swings and events as I did all the records. What stood out after doing Day 1 (and despite how much - so so much! - work it was, I'm incredibly glad I did it) was what led me here, to my current top suspects. I hope I'm right, but I don't want anyone following me just because I'm a Mason - I have as little knowledge of everyone's roles as the rest of you. Novice and I didn't always see eye-to-eye on suspects (he had been pushing for scooter for... 3 Days now? Something like that.), and it shows in our voting patterns - that wasn't intentional. I don't expect, nor desire, anyone to follow my lead just because I'm a confirmed Villager. I want people to make independent decisions based upon the data we have available.

Anyway, I just wanted to put that forth.

(BTW Serdoa - I love it that it took novice electing me Mayor for you to finally believe I'm a Villager. You've been one hell of a playing partner in this game. Appreciate the ride, both up and down.)

[Ichabod]

If Lewwyn is a wolf I'm kind of a real life seer in this game. My gut feelings are very good (selrahc and lewwyn)...

But when my reasoning starts showing its face... Well, you saw what happened...

[Mardoc]

I guess the weak point in your theory, Roland, is that it assumes the wolves are using the same strategy you think they should use. If you're right about them being careful to spread out votes, then it makes a lot of sense.

It also helps, of course, that we now know you and Ichabod to be innocent, so we're down to 3 suspects out of 8 potential candidates - which is really out of 7 for everyone but you and the wolves.

Although, again, there's an error in your tally - you have Cull voting twice and yourself not voting at all.

[Roland]

Although, again, there's an error in your tally - you have Cull voting twice and yourself not voting at all.

Direct me?

[Mardoc]

For the lynch, you have Cull voting for both himself and MJW, and yourself not on anyone, in that post just now.

[Roland]

For the lynch, you have Cull voting for both himself and MJW, and yourself not on anyone, in that post just now.

How about that. Eesh... that could be a problem if I saved the file. :neenernee Seems I replaced Roland with Cull. Ah well, I'm sure I can fix it easily enough - just have to redo some work. So it goes.

[Roland]

How about that. Eesh... that could be a problem if I saved the file. :neenernee Seems I replaced Roland with Cull. Ah well, I'm sure I can fix it easily enough - just have to redo some work. So it goes.

Yep. Turn 74 I put Cull's name instead of my own under the tallies - the record itself was recorded properly below. I know I was tired at that point. Ah well, nothing major - trivial to correct. Thanks for catching it. Let me know if you find any other mistakes. :neenernee Oh, and try to tell me what Day / Turn they're on, in case I need it.

Getting back on topic:

I guess the weak point in your theory, Roland, is that it assumes the wolves are using the same strategy you think they should use. If you're right about them being careful to spread out votes, then it makes a lot of sense.

Well, yes. That's going to be the case with just about any theory. Thus I implore everyone to come up with their own, or - failing that - vet mine here in public. I think my theory is logical and sound, relatively speaking, but I'm not married to it or anything. It just seems the most fitting, both ways - theory fitting evidence, and evidence fitting theory. Sometimes you have to work both backwards and forwards in order to figure everything out.

At any rate it seems at least a few people agree with me - more than just the remaining 'Wolves, whoever they are. Others are content to bicker amongst themselves, and that's fine, too. If I'm right, we've basically won the game - although I take no direct credit for it if that's the case. :neenernee Besides, I don't think it's that easy - if it was, we wouldn't be where we are now. I think I'm right about at least one person. The rest... well, it will either fall into place or it won't. That's why I want everyone to look at the data - at everything - and say what they think. I'll honestly be just short of amazed if I'm right about all 3 suspects, but I've done my best to support my theories - anything else will have to come in due time.

[Mardoc]

You know, I just realized something - When Lewwyn had that opposite-day a little while back - why didn't he vote for himself, as the known innocent? Why, of course, because he knew he was a wolf and therefore was innocent.

[Lewwyn]

hahahaha

Just woke up and skimmed the last 7 pages.

Hey Roland, this is why I lynched you in WW2, you're dead wrong. I can't write a long defense yet, because I have to go teach, but I will this afternoon.

Roland you're making this too easy. Theres no one defending me, and if you look at a tally of the lynch vote the only other person people are voting for is GES and thats MY vote. Do you really think all the wolves would just roll over that easily? Unless of course I'm not a wolf and they are HAPPILY latching onto your argument.

Its fine turn about is fair play. But I won't vote for myself like you did Roland. I'll go down swinging. Especially since I truely believe GES is a wolf.

Okay off to class.

[Roland]

hahahaha

Just woke up and skimmed the last 7 pages.

Hey Roland, this is why I lynched you in WW2, you're dead wrong. I can't write a long defense yet, because I have to go teach, but I will this afternoon.

Roland you're making this too easy. Theres no one defending me, and if you look at a tally of the lynch vote the only other person people are voting for is GES and thats MY vote. Do you really think all the wolves would just roll over that easily? Unless of course I'm not a wolf and they are HAPPILY latching onto your argument.

Its fine turn about is fair play. But I won't vote for myself like you did Roland. I'll go down swinging. Especially since I truely believe GES is a wolf.

Okay off to class.

You're making this personal, and it's not. In WW2, lynching me is arguable as to whether it helped or hurt - but in that game it didn't matter either way. You had more options at the end, and you had Serdoa to (inadvertently) help reveal all the remaining 'Wolves in one fell swoop. We've no such luck in this game, and our backs are against the wall. We only have one missed chance - that's it. If I'm wrong about you, I honestly don't know where to go because there are too many variables, too many people who could fit a 'Wolf. We'd be blind. You can hardly blame me for looking for a pattern and following what results - and you fit a pattern.

By all means, Lewwyn, post your own theories and suspects. Bring something more substantial to the table than "It's Opposite Day! Wheeeeeeeeeeeee!" You brought much of this on yourself, with your erratic behavior. The rest... well, the rest explains itself. We'll find out one way or another whether it stands on its own or not. Your "defense" that you've presented thus far is so easily cast by a 'Wolf it's hard not to dismiss it outright. You know as well as I do that all you need to do is misdirect one lynch, and our chances of winning as a Village go from hopeful to dismal. With your history, you can hardly be considered very credible, even more so now that you're under such heavy suspicion. The fact that no one is defending you means nothing. Look at WW2! Serdoa's switch BLATANTLY revealed all the remaining 'Wolves precisely because they tried to defend scooter - a 'Wolf. Do you really think they're going to risk their whole game when they're so close to winning?

I don't know that I'm right - that's the difference between you and I. You were so convinced I was a 'Wolf that it didn't matter what the end result was: you were, and are, proud of what you did. I'm not out for vengeance. I'm out for victory. Lynching you looks to be the surest bet, but at least I leave open the possibility - perhaps strong - that I am wrong. What would you prefer? A blind shot on Jkaen, Meiz, or Mardoc - any of which have almost equal chances of being right or wrong? Or perhaps we reverse things, and lynch scooter - maybe that will go even further to proving you're a 'Wolf? Tell me, if you see how wrong I am, just what is RIGHT?

You're all bluster and little substance, Lewwyn. If you're serious about saving the Village and churning out a victory, do something to achieve it. Just remember: you've been convinced I was a 'Wolf since the beginning - and I'm a proven Mason. How right are you going to be in your other convictions?

The door is open for you to walk out of, Lewwyn. I didn't set the trap - I just pointed it out while you were already in it.