[SPOILERS] Cornflakes brings the popcorn (because creativity is overrated)

[Cornflakes]

From what I've seen the values for everything in the cost table have matched throughout this game except for the district costs. Civics have been controlling the costs for most of the game since I have put an emphasis on cultural yields. I was initially getting in-game costs less than the table suggested. After experimenting with the denominator of the formula I found a number that matched what I was seeing in-game. Gradually that number has diverged so obviously something other than the denominator was causing the initial discrepancy. It's not that big a deal though since I'm not doing close micromanagement anymore.

Got another turn in early today! Russia unlocked Civil Service so I proposed an alliance immediately in hopes of (1) saving 2 turns of culture research on Diplomatic Service from the eureka, and (2) confirming Russia's peaceful intentions. Russia gains a lot more than me with the alliance because they will get all of my map knowledge including my overseas island cities and contact with all city states. The big benefit to me though would be guaranteed peace getting me past the Cossack era of dominance and into Urban Defenses from Steel technology. The timing will also work out well for me to develop a strong navy and make a play to settle the Vilnius/Amsterdam island aggressively. Once I secure the alliance I plan on an aggressive settler push from any city that doesn't have essential infrastructure to build. Settler's almost cost as much as a wonder now but the Vilnius/Amsterdam continent especially has multiple stones and many forests to speed along growth at new colonies. 

   

Here's a look at how I am managing my new island cities. I have been emphasizing growth, locking in on the 3/0 marsh at size 1 and then the grass hill at size 2. Production will increase rapidly once I get a builder to throw down some mines but until them I'm not going to produce anything anyway. The lack of chopables at Catan is sad but I still think it was the right choice because I'm taking a very-long-term perspective and I want to groom this into a Spaceport city. 

I have a 3 charge builder at Carcassonne planning to build 2 mines plus a walls-chop. Limes will be back in next policy swap along with Press Gangs so I'll have to drop a couple of economic policy cards. What I would really like to do is use my gold to purchase a builder at Catan. The builder will cost 450 but with 6 charges can single-handedly build enough improvements for Catan's growth over the next 20 turns, or play double-duty with support from another mainland-built builder. If I get the Russian alliance I'll definitely purchase the builder since I won't need gold for immediate emergency upgrades. Any interference with Roman coastline will be just spare military as I slowly build up a frigate navy. If I get the alliance I'll delay Nationalism and hit the top of the Civics tree first to grab some envoys while building cheaper frigates.

[Cornflakes]

TheArchduke refused Alliance, hopefully to avoid giving me the inspiration and not because he’s planning war. This turn I finished Diplomatic Service and I think he has enough visibility to see what civics and techs I complete. I can see his in the rumors and he should have the same visibility in return. I did detect troop movements along the border this turn so I will be biting my nails for the next half dozen turns.

My strategy is to emphasize a navy, and if Russia does declare my objective will be to ensure that is a losing mistake for Russia by prolonging conflict from my island holdouts. I will have 2 frigates nearly complete when DoF ends, with 3 builders in place to chop-chop-chop everything in sight at Pinochle and Free Cell if TAD declares war. I’ve got enough to get out at least 6-8 frigates within 5 turns of receiving a war declaration. My efforts will go towards defending those 2 mainland cities to the last while they pump frigates. I have assigned them both max production tiles now stealing all hills and lumber mills within reach from Chess and Sushi Go.

[Cornflakes]

The Russian ram is on the move. I have a really bad feeling about this. Russia has 450 gold now but if harvesting crabs/copper could come up with 1000 more instantly. I’m removed a lumber mill last turn and am going to start chopping frigates. I’m afraid I’ll be activating rogue island nation status soon

Rome pulled the trigger on their mass upgrade this turn. I spotted miskets on the Greek border and Carevels on the water. Greece cannot last long. Come on TheArchduke, don’t throw the game to Rome please!

[Cornflakes]

Rome declared war on me at the same time as Greece as expected in order to deny any possibility of the Nationalism eureka. Lost a caravel to Rome through misplay leaving it within range. I should have just brought it home but the temptation to keep pushing back the fog around the Rome/Greece island was too strong.

Russia is committed to war I chopped my first frigate this turn and will be swapping into Professional Army next turn to upgrade my 2 Quads. I'm confident that I'll be able to assemble a navy of at least 7 Frigates. I'm going to reserve my gold for upgrades of naval units since ultimately those will do the most damage to Russia. Any land units are minor speedbumps at most to Russian Cossacks.

[Cornflakes]

Just realized that I missed the civ comparison for T200. We've been blazing away with 2 turns per day and I had a busy weekend and just squeezed in the turns. I'll load up T200 again to capture the data when I have a chance.

   

Russia I'm pretty sure harvested a gold resource last turn because they're up over 900 now. Still not in the Industrial era although our DoF expires next turn so he may be trying to be sneaky and delaying Military Science until the last minute. In the screenshot above I am completing Geneva's quest in order to claim a moral victory and raise my Morale. I also dropped in my remaining reserve envoy to bring me up to 6 in Geneva for the extra . I'm going to spend 215 next turn to purchase and chop the 3rd ring forest into a Frigate next turn. A Frigate cost over 900 to purchase outright and the chop is worth 75% of a Frigate production and is worth the cost IMO. I won't be upgrading to MG for a while and by that time I assume Rome will be more than happy to fund my upgrades.

I meant to capture an overview of my core and eastern island but the screenshot didn't take. Russia can't declare war on the interturn though so I'll be able to capture my final preparations next turn. It's going to look like a woefully inadequate defense, but I want to prove the point that even still it is the wrong choice in the bigger picture for Russia to declare war on Brazil. Nothing that I could possibly have assembled on land would be able to stop Russian Cossacks. If Urban Defenses had been available at Civil Engineering like in the original release then I would be fine since I could have reached Civil Engineering more than 5 turns ago. As-is, naval dominance and the ability to defend my island cities and keep the core in occupation penalty is my only effective deterrent. I really should have pushed for Square Rigging harder and I think that was my biggest mistake. TheArchduke doesn't know that I'll have a navy to defend my islands and I have no way to convey that now. If I had beelined Square Rigging 10 turns earlier I could have shown him a fully-build fleet ahead of the war declaration.

I have 3 Frigates already, 2 will be chopped out next turn at Dominion + Pinochle. Free Cell will complete one naturally turn after next. Dominion should have enough time to naturally build at least 1 more Frigate before falling. I think I'll have time to chop one more at Pinochle and chop 3 more at Free Cell before getting booted off the continent. That brings me to 11 Frigates total which will be enough to control the seas between the islands and send a detachment west to raze Russia's coastal cities. I'm considering whether I need to convert 1-2 of those Frigates to Caravels in order to be able to capture coastal cities and I think that does make sense. All my island cities are inland so I won't be able to build any new units once I lose my core. Even considering total collapse of my core over the next dozen turns I think that I will be able to reach Nationalism in 10-15 turns. I'm hitting the Industrial era via tech and depending on whether I get a lucky free-inspiration roll from Vilnius will determine whether I hit the early or later part of that range.

[Cornflakes]

Sorry for the lapse in reporting ... holiday week, etc., etc.

No war declaration from Russia, but no DoF extension either. Russia has not yet unlocked Military Science although I think they should have had enough by this time already. Rome is making progress against Greece, capturing (I think?) 3 cities. I haven't been paying close attention.

Here's a teaser from this turn:

   

I declared war on Hattusa this turn in retaliation to Russia's hostile posturing. They have 6 envoys there and none anywhere else, and they also lose the Gems luxury. I gain a city with harbor for another trade route. The campus + library adds 2 GPP/turn and between adjacency and bonus from the other city states adds +10 which is more than the 6 I lose from the +2 at my 3 existing campuses. All around a positive for me but I'm willing to let Hattusa live if Russia gives me a DoF. No way to communicate that though.

I have 7 Frigates now and 1 in the queue, 1 Caravel and 1 in queue.

[Cornflakes]

Sigh, TheArchduke upgraded last turn and declared war this turn I'm completing Industrialization tech to enter the Industrial era, while also researching past 50% on Nationalism. If I get a lucky dice roll from my free inspiration I may have Nationalism complete next turn, otherwise probably 10 turns. Here's the current situation:

   

I can see 5 Russian Cossacks which will be more than sufficient to conquer my mainland. I had a knight in Sushi Go to provide the boosted city strength, but it fell easily to what appears to be just 4 Cossack attacks (unless there are another couple of Cossacks out of sight which is entirely possible and in fact likely). As you can see the Cossacks are barely damaged at all! I had swapped every tile possible away from Sushi Go prior to war declaration so that at least is a plus *tries to stay optimistic*. Preslav gives my mounted units +5 strength in hills so I have fortified a knight and horseman in the hills west of Pinochle to try slowing down the advance a little. I can definitely buy a turn and maybe kill something in return (especially if MG's are unlocked to boost city walls ranged attacks).

I held off on chopping the 2 forests at Free Cell this turn. If Nationalism completes then the Frigate will be queue-upgraded to MG and I will chop that out. Otherwise I'll chop 2 more Frigates next turn (bringing me up to 10 total). Valletta completed a Military Engineer last turn for the eventual 2 forts eureka. I'm going to try withdrawing it to the north and get it off to one of my islands if possible. I don't think I'll have Siege Tactics completed in time to build the forts on the mainland. I'm curios to see if TheArchduke will go for my coastal cities first through the mildly defended Pinochle, or clean up Valletta and Chess first.

   

At the island I'm gathering a strike force in preparation to hit the Russian coastal cities. If I can upgrade to MG's I may send them west to try sinking any current Russian navy and reduce/eliminate Russia's ability to produce ships. I'll need to do that cautiously though as I don't want to run into a trap and succumb to a Russian ambush. I'm going to use my Great Admiral out in front as a spotter.

Gold is going to be my biggest struggle in order to maintain the support costs of my navy (not to mention trying to upgrade all my Frigates to MG). I'm going to be limited in my trade route capacity once I lose the CH/Harbors from the mainland. Carcassonne is going to build a Commercial Hub next in order to add an additional trade route. I finished the Campus this turn unfortunately 1 turn too soon to chop the forest into an empty build queue so that I can plant the CH on the tile (builder just reached the forest this turn). I discovered through testing in a sim though that I could leave the build queue empty by not selecting anything, end turn via SHIFT+ENTER after completing all other actions for the turn, and the build queue would remain empty next turn to do the empty-queue chop. In addition, the production generated this turn is stored up to contribute towards the next build item selected. I have 2 charges remaining on that builder and both of those forests will nearly complete the CH.

There's another barb camp in the south of this island for another 50. I'm hoping that it will still have a spearman defender but I spotted barb muskets on Rome's island so I'm no optimistic.

[Cornflakes]

I received the worthless eureka of Sanitation (under normal circumstances it might be OK??? ... nah, still pretty worthless) and the totally worthless inspiration of Natural History (you're going to want to build an archeologist if you go here, so you'll need an Archaeology museum anyway).

No more cities lost so that's good news. Each turn I don't lose cities is one turn shaved off Nationalism. Currently showing 5 turns. Dominion will hold out another few turns, just long enough to finish the caravel in queue but I'd be very surprised if it lasted long enough to get another ship out afterwards. There is a single cossack advancing supported by 2 Horsemen. I'll have a knight there next turn before TheArchduke can get any attacks in and warrior present that I could upgrade into a Musket for 155 which might be able to delay capture until TheArchduke brings more than a single Cossack to bear. But I'll need Dominion to survive a total of 8 turns from now in order to get an MG out. Actually I think that's worth it. I think I can keep Dominion alive for 8 turns. That will be a mini-goal for me, built at least 1 MG out of Dominion.

Also I need to think about an escape settler for a tiny 1-tile island that I can surround with my navy for an eventual showdown.

Oh, and the barb camp on the south of my island is still just defended by a spear

[Cornflakes]

I took a moment to look for potential last-stand locations for an eventual escape settler and I noticed Geneva's location is ideally suited. Ice blocks sea attack from the east leaving only one way in for enemy ships. The cliffs prevent enemy units from landing on the south coast. I could stuff the arctic sea behind the island with MG's and hold out for quite some time. I'm hopeful though that I'll be able to catch the Russian navy either un-upgraded or not even built and be able to raze their coastal cities. I know that Russia has 2 galleys out but I'm not sure if they have any other naval tech yet, having beelined Military Science. I have 4 frigates + 2 Caravels en route about 4 more turns out from the closest Russian coastal city.

   

[Cornflakes]

Now that I'm out of the running I'm going to stop doing the Civ Comparison updates. Rho21 has historically done his Round Number Roundups and I assume he's continuing to do those in this game.

I'll start off with the most exciting part of the turn ...

   

My coastal raiding force is rounding the southern tip of the continent now. One more turn of staging outside Russian borders and then I'll be able to start the attack. Standard view does not show walls started at Krasnayaarmia. I have 2 frigates promoted to +7 strength vs. districts making their attacks 62 vs. 57. Expected damage [29/36/43]. I think hills block ranged attacks from Frigates so I'll only be able to use those 2 on the assault. Since the city will be healing between turns I expect it to take 4 turns to slowly wear down the garrison. My other ships will continue up the coast immediately without entering Russian line of sight. Maybe TheArchduke will assume I just sent a small detachment over and I can catch his navy by surprise further up the coast?

   

Down on the southern island I managed to clear the barb camp easier than I had feared since the defending spear suicided into my horseman. 2 muskets are a tall task for my ancient army to clear though. It will be a little diversion to distract me from my crumbling empire.

   

Russia bypassed my capital with a couple of Cossacks and headed straight to Dominion, so unfortunately I will not be able to complete an MG here   I did get another Caravel out last turn though (just out of view to the northeast). After taking the screenshot I decided to try evacuating the knight via the north coast. I moved it onto the swamp as a 2-MP tile and I think Dominion will absorb enough attacks that it will be able to embark to the NW next turn and escape to one of my islands.

   

Chess will likely fall next turn with Free Cell shortly after (no walls at FC so the Cossacks won't have to wait for the ram). I've been building scouts at my inland cities since they can 1-turn them. At least with a scout I can throw it in the path and slow down a Cossack by a turn. Cossacks can move after attacking but can only attack once per turn. Sure I'me giving the Cossacks free XP, but once I'm kicked off the mainland those Cossacks won't be able to accomplish much.