Civ4 AI Survivor: Season Four

[Brian Shanahan]

Put me down in the "AP is entertaining" club, too.

Oh, it's fun all right. But it's also really effin'* stupid.

*Also a village in Limerick.

[GreyWolf]

Can peaceweights go past their normal limits? For instance, could we end up with a game where Gandhi’s peaceweight hits 13, while Montezuma’s hits -3?

I am not sure. It's an integer value, so I guess they can. Especially since the Base Attitude value can be negative - it's -1 for a bunch of crankier leaders.

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

Jumping back to my thing about the seeded leaders (since I didn't get back here until today): Ultimately I'll leave it at "I don't know, you may well be right." I'd say there's a definite possibility that AI Survivor has just gotten old for me in that I can see where most games are going from an early point now, since I've seen so many. Not a lot of game-changing stuff seems to happen in the late game, so the winner is often decided in the first half. I can't say offhand if it used to be that way, but it certainly is now. (For instance, I only watched about the first hour of the wildcard game, since as soon as Sury joined the war and Wang lost his big stack, it was obviously a Sury/Mao win.)

So it might just be a case where I've seen enough AI Survivor that I know it too well and it's losing its charm (ironic, since I'm a perennial non-contender in the picking contest.) Assuredly it also doesn't help that I tend to root for the more peaceful leaders that invariably get slaughtered by the less likable warmongers.

Re the AP: I've generally supported it and not cared for all the complaining about it, largely because it can result in more crazy gamechanging stuff happening and I'm all for that. I would support keeping it in for the sake of AP war declarations which I think are a fantastic way to swing a game suddenly. That said, I'm also with those who have gotten tired of it being used to just cancel any war against the resident over and over and not let anything happen. Still support it overall but I'm less high on it than I used to be.

As far as a Raging Barbs season goes, I think it would be terrible for people who are really serious about the picking contest, but fantastic for everybody else. More random swings in fortune! Sounds good to me but I doubt Sullla will care for the idea.

[haphazard1]

Not a lot of game-changing stuff seems to happen in the late game, so the winner is often decided in the first half.

This is generally true in Civ games, and is not specific to AI Survivor. As an empire building game, strength tends to beget more strength as advantages pile up and lead to more advantages (first to bonuses, getting key wonders, military tech edge leading to successful wars and more land gained, etc.). And really that is as it should be. Would you really want to play a game where how the first 200+ turns went meant nothing because anyone could still win over the last 75-100 turns?

[LKendter]

Did I miss the written update for the last round?
I'm still wanting to see what happened.

I don't have the time to spend watching the live stream. I need the write up to know what happened.

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

Not a lot of game-changing stuff seems to happen in the late game, so the winner is often decided in the first half.

This is generally true in Civ games, and is not specific to AI Survivor. As an empire building game, strength tends to beget more strength as advantages pile up and lead to more advantages (first to bonuses, getting key wonders, military tech edge leading to successful wars and more land gained, etc.). And really that is as it should be. Would you really want to play a game where how the first 200+ turns went meant nothing because anyone could still win over the last 75-100 turns?

That is a completely fair point, and as a player the game is better that way. (Although I personally would say that the ideal balance has a weaker player still able to win, just with much more difficulty, so that a strong start still puts you in position to win but doesn't guarantee it if you start playing badly.) But it isn't quite so ideal in the context of watching AI Survivor and having the lategame be interesting...

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

Anyway, sorry if I came down too hard on the competition. Don't interpret my comments as a knock against you or what you've done with the series, Sullla, I appreciate all the work you've put into the series and have gotten plenty of enjoyment from it over the years. I guess the patterns just tend to repeat after a while... Everybody else, don't let me stop you from enjoying the show.

[Fluffball]

Not a lot of game-changing stuff seems to happen in the late game, so the winner is often decided in the first half.

This is generally true in Civ games, and is not specific to AI Survivor. As an empire building game, strength tends to beget more strength as advantages pile up and lead to more advantages (first to bonuses, getting key wonders, military tech edge leading to successful wars and more land gained, etc.). And really that is as it should be. Would you really want to play a game where how the first 200+ turns went meant nothing because anyone could still win over the last 75-100 turns?

That is a completely fair point, and as a player the game is better that way. (Although I personally would say that the ideal balance has a weaker player still able to win, just with much more difficulty, so that a strong start still puts you in position to win but doesn't guarantee it if you start playing badly.) But it isn't quite so ideal in the context of watching AI Survivor and having the lategame be interesting...

That's what the different victory methods are for. There have been lots of examples of non-first place scores winning via culture or tech. There have also been some fairly mind blowing losses by the leader choosing the wrong method. Charlemagne's lost space race, Vicky's complete and utter self destruction, and Liz's barely failed culture victory all stand out in my mind. (That last one wasn't her picking wrong, but rather her not defending her culture city.) Wasn't the finale of season one a come from behind culture victory? I can't remember.

The picking contest also adds some drama if you're into that. I don't REALLY care about my score but it can be a lot of fun seeing who gets seconds place, or even who survives.

[Reverent]

Did I miss the written update for the last round?
I'm still wanting to see what happened.

I don't have the time to spend watching the live stream.  I need the write up to know what happened.

Here it is!

[Sullla]

Lots of excellent discussion in this thread, I won't have time to respond to everyone tonight but will try to do so tomorrow. I have been out of town for the last three days and that's why I didn't put a post up mentioning the writeup for the Wildcard Game. It was finished over the weekend and can be accessed here. Thanks to Reverent for posting the link a short time earlier.

Community predictions have been added to the preview page for Playoff Game One! Here's a quick summary:






We ended up having a fairly even three-way split in the picking contest as far as who would win the game. Justinian had a slim lead over Huayna Capac and Kublai Khan, with trace amounts of support for the other three leaders. The runner-up picks were mostly similar, with the one significant change being a lot of additional support for Hannibal. Apparently a lot of people liked him to come in second but not to top the board as the outright winner. The most dominant category was First to Die where nearly everyone seemed to believe that Isadora would make an early exit. Few of the picking contest entries seemed to believe that her victory in the opening round was anything other than a fluke. We also apparently had two different people pick "None" in this category despite it never happening to date in 40 previous AI Survivor games. Finally, opinion was exactly split between Domination and Spaceship victory types at the moment in time when I snapped this screenshot. I was curious to see if the late picks would break for one of these results as opposed to the other.

Finally, here are some of the best/craziest written predictions about what would take place during the game. There were many other excellent entries but I had to pick and choose my favorites to keep this from running on too long. Thanks again for the submissions!

RefSteel: It would be absolutely incredible if Izzy could pull another win out of this one, especially with this competition! I'm therefore "predicting" that will happen as a kind of encouragement, but understand that when I say "incredible" I also mean "not credible." She's got the highest peace weight in a game where her rivals average 2.6, she has probably the worst starting land in the game, especially for her techs, and her nearest neighbor is a fellow religious maniac with far better land, a far better track record, better techs for the terrain, closer peace weight to their mutual neighbors, fewer neighbors to deal with in the first place ... and cataphracts. The map alone favors Justinian so much (not only against Izzy) it would take a miracle for anyone else to pull off a win against him. Isabella will certainly be praying for such a miracle ... but in spite of his likewise-poor starting area, Capac is the one guy who might *create* one!

ljubljana: Don't get me wrong y'all, this is totally still an anti-huayna spite vote; my rationalization is that he'll get squeezed by his poor start, inconveniently-placed water, and oh look at that his only first-ring sites with food bonuses are in the tundra, and survive for a bit (longer than izzy anyway) but fail to make headway vs kublai and his four golds. i'd say kublai leads early but finishes a narrow second after justinian conquers izzy and willem and outtechs to space.

Aus prof: "Wait, Willem? In a field this stacked, you picked Willem?" Ah but wait, I can explain. Let’s go leader by leader. Justinian has a good start on paper. But in practice, his abundant land and resources will be squandered by his tech preferences. Justinian begins the game unable to improve any resources, and is going to exacerbate this by researching a religion. To make things worse, there is a good chance in this field that he loses that race, then goes for a second religion. Justinian may spend the first 20 turns of the game not just without improvements, but without even being able to build them, and I don’t care how strong an AI is, that’s crippling in a way that makes it hard to recover. Izzy is essentially the exact same as Justinian in this respect so I won’t waste words rehashing that. The only difference is that she is first to die due to higher peace weight and a central position. Kublai has a frankly absurd capital and I initially snap-picked him, but actually there is a problem there too. He has nothing else. Seriously, look at his land, it’s pretty barren. So he’s not gonna die super early, but he isn’t going to be a major power post early game. Huayna was my initial pick for second, but actually, he’s just too squeezed. Like Isabella, I think his central position dooms him, not for being surrounded by enemies but just for not having enough expansion, especially if he goes wonder heavy. So, much like Kublai, I think Huayna will be an also-ran in this game. Hannibal, my final choice for second, has good land, tech preferences (he won’t chase religion early) and expansion opportunities. With financial he will tech well and he will also have the opportunity to crack some skulls, which is a good combo if you can get powerful enough to pull it off. Lastly, Willem has great and plentiful land, won’t waste time on religious stuff early, amazing traits and might not even need to capture any territory to win if everyone else batters each other’s brains out for him, slowing down the global tech pace. Basically I think he’s a slightly superior version of Hannibal in most ways (specifically for this game), and thus he will prevail. So yeah, somehow in a game featuring Justinian AND Huayna, I ended up picking Willem and Hannibal. Go figure.

Faded_Outline: This game will clearly emphasize the fact that peace weight doesn't necessarily translate to peaceful intent. Izzy is the sole constituent of "team good" and yet it's nearly certain that she'll launch the first war. And get splatted because her land is mediocre and her neighbors aren't pushovers. Beyond that I see two futures; one in which two major religious blocs clash with the winning team riding out to a space victory, or an alternate path where everyone else follows the same faith and, after a quick pause around the middle ages to put down a suicide-war by Hannibal, have a friendly race to a culture win. A very civilized game, for once.

Fergus: Justinian is pretty strong but 4 gold, man. Also considering that virtually every leader here is a really good techer (except maybe Izzy...sorry, Spain) I expect people will be getting 1400s AD infantry and whatnot, leading to a much faster victory. That being said, once Kublai gets the ball rolling he'll absolutely murder everyone in his way.

Y3llowSheep: Oddly enough, I think this game has the potential to end up a complete lovefest. Everyone's peaceweight is almost the same, so any fighting will be sparked will be by religion. Hard to say who'll come on top, although it seems likely Isabella will suicide herself in one too many crusades. The only one with a standout capital is Wilhelm, and I don't have any expectations of him. Huayna and Justinian seem evenly matched in terms of ability and geography, so it feels like either of them could come out on top. Of course, maybe something silly happens like Isabella winning those crusades, so who knows?

Latif: Justinian to win, Kublai second, Isabella first to die. Justinian's religion seems likely to spread down the river to Kublai probably keeping them friends, while Isabella founds her own and finds herself on the wrong end of a 2 v 1. Her other neighbor to the south Huayna probably also founds a religion putting her at odds with him as well. Meanwhile Justinian stands to gain the most from Isabella's demise regardless of who actually captures the cities. He also seems to have a decent amount of green land to expand into. On the other side of the world, Willem has a good amount of land to expand into, but he and Hannibal - both fairly aggressive - will possibly fight a number of inconclusive wars. Meanwhile Huayna doesn't seem to have many food resources in his immediate surroundings (and only rice in his capital). I think he'll be second to die - probably to Kublai, who has access to both elephants and horses - with one of either Willem or Hannibal surviving to the end.

TMIT: This is a really stacked field, but it looks like Kublai has his hands on the Civ 4 HoF mod that lets you reroll starts. Quad gold and nice initial positioning help a lot. Initial extra settler derping might still screw him but if he places that well he's in a good spot to squeeze the #1 contenders Byzantine and Inca out. He's aggressive enough that I expect him to attack one of them, with enough of a lead via the gold for it to alter the outcome of the game. I pick Hannibal as #2 given his position and likelihood not to have immediate border conflicts with the Mongols/other aggressors, though as always the game can surprise us. At least someone isn't as likely to lose capital to barbs this time!

haphazard1: Spain on a lake, errr, oasis may mean Isabella grabs the first religion. She and Justinian are going to fight, dragging down the usually mighty Byzantine leader. Justinian will also get a slow start due to his starting techs not matching his capital, leaving tiles unimproved while he chases a religion of his own. This leaves Huayna Capac as my pick to win, probably grabbing the third religion at Monotheism and spreading it east and west to gain allies. He also has gold and silver within reach to boost happiness with his industrious forges. The stone might tempt him into going wonder crazy, though. Kublai will have a fantastic start with that quadruple gold and will end up as second place. First to die is tough. I am going with Isabella as she will start religious wars she can not win.

JackDRB: Wow this is certainly a lineup alright. I also feel a little bad for Izzy and Willem, this is one hell of a challenge. I think that this whole game is built on religious blocs, and the strongest religious AI here is Justinian, hence he wins, crushing all the other religious AI leaders in his path. Kublai Khan also sits on Justinian's river, so I think he's more likely to pick Justinian's religion up, and together they'll form the deadly religious tag team. Fairly early domination in terms of winning, most of the AIs here are pretty good, but they're also very good at pressing their advantage and snowballing.

Brian Shanahan: Justinian has a gimped start with no horsies in range, at all. Unless he kills of Izzy in sub t100 he's out of the running. Therefore I predict that Huayna will win the game quite handily, personally expecting the spaceship to go first of the victory conditions. Willem I pick as runner up as he's tucked away into a nice corner, any expansion at all will give him plenty of good land and enough of the needed strategic resources to keep his army relatively current for most of the game, until rifles appear. This one should be quick too with three techers to keep the pace going.

Eauxps I. Fourgott: For the trollz since I have no shot anyway

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