[PB63 Spoilers] Ginger and Lazteuq find a way to peace

[Ginger()]

Well no thanks to Mjmd's OB cancellation, but I managed to one-turn Calendar after trashing my remaining gold reserves. I rushed MoM in Antium, the final calculus that tipped my decision versus the Machinery Bulb was the belief that stacking the GPP from MoM and 'mids will let me get a second great person from Antium this game. 

Some photos:
       

Alright its game tipping point time. How do I want to play this?
Last turn Mjmd expressed his displease with my intended settle on the plains hill, sent a threatening message demanding cities, and canceled OB leading to the requested reload kerfuffle. 

Plan 1) Police State
Version 1: Back down.
Swap in possibly 2 turns time, getting a few more beakers out of Rep, build up
Benefit: doesn't directly state my intentions like settling does, but realistically I think Mjmd can sus what's up. However, if it costs him two turns of teching towards Crossbows or Cats, maybe it is worth it. 

Version 2: Double down.
Send him a very clear explanation of my position:
   
Hope he sees the inevitability. 
This has a small chance of providing the best possible outcome to me. But realistically might cause him to entrench himself and tech mil faster. If he fortifies Renzo I stack up and go all-in, marching on his Moai and Capital. 

Plan 2) Hug Representation my beloved, and tech more. 
Cost: I need to back down from settling the border site. 
Gain: presumably significant diplo points with Mjmd after acquiescing to his demand. 
I get a nice golden age right when I need it, and I will probably be left in peace to develop late/classical or medieval infrastructure. 
Of course the problem is that this is infrastructure that Mjmd already has, so tick tock. (To be clear, when I am talking about Mjmd's economic potential it is very much greedy and jealous. I believe I have the upper hand long term with better stats and more pop, but I also believe that this is a moment of vulnerability I could punish. Him building forges instead of military like that is just spitting in my face, disrespectful   )
Big con to peace: is I would have to betray my diplo with Bing. I briefly consider that Bing might backstab me in 6 turns anyways if I declare on Mjmd, but I would be flabbergasted if the Colossus holy city is less tempting than 10 tiles of desert and plains.

Edit: I know the "No small injuries" theory and that the best wars are fast, overwhelming, and total, but I think that a limited war has potential against a rational actor: you're not crushing their chance to win if you're just asking for one city. Of course some players' first instinct when the house is on fire is to grab a can of gasoline, but that doesn't seem like Mjmd. At least usually that doesn't seem in character for him—he might be irrationally pissed if he thinks I'm playing clock games and starts asking for reloads

[Lazteuq]

I'm sorry about doing the classic dedlurker thing and vanishing after the early game. With this level of gameplay and reporting, you deserve a better dedlurker. Also it's becoming ever more clear that you're a considerably better player than me so I feel weird trying to give advice.
But here I am for today at least:

My instinct is to KILL KILL KILL.
I logged in for a bit and I still feel that way.

While he's not a fully insane player by nature, I am pretty concerned about Mjmd going all-in. He's probably feeling squeezed already, struggling with Cairo and with the distant threat of a large Superdeath and neighboring Bing who probably isn't an easy meal, in addition to Rome with Mids (and MoM although he doesn't know it yet!). I think Mjmd probably already sees his chance of winning slipping away and sees his only hope is to tech up and build infrastructure in peace, (which is something Cornflakes or Cairo may beat him at anyway). If we seriously attack I bet he will give up on trying to win and go full porcupine mode.

That shouldn't discourage us too much though. With top food, Mids and MoM, solid production, praets, and catapults pretty soon, I believe we can cripple him without crippling ourselves.
I think the diplomatic situation looks good too.
With pretty secure borders, we will be able to devote almost every unit against Mjmd, while he has Cairo and hopefully Bing to deal with.

I don't think the prospect of gaining diplo points with Mjmd is significant- He isn't much of an offensive threat against us, since he knows he'll have to stay peaceful and tech up.

I don't have a good understanding of the Mjmd-Cairo situation, but I know that Cairo has had some success and Mjmd is investing into a navy on that sea which inflates his power but is little threat to us. I worry that if we delay, Cairo and Mjmd might make peace and that will let Mjmd regroup his northern forces.
We can maybe count Cairo as an ally against Mjmd along with Bing. I'm seeing real dogpile potential. Maybe even Superdeath would join in, although I guess he's content to build up in peace probably. It's important to not be too optimistic, we might have to fight alone. I think the extent of any war with Mjmd will mostly depend on who else is willing to join. Have you had any diplo with superdeath or Cairo lately? It would be really unfortunate if Mjmd allies with Superdeath and he attacks our islands. Maybe we can preempt that by making friends with SD for now.
I agree that it would be super strange for Bing to attack us, but he is probably not going to be a eager participant against Mjmd either. I bet he'll wait to see if a war between us is serious before committing. He'll probably watch for us taking and holding cities as a sign that he won't get abandoned. He surely wants to avoid feeling like a tool.

Even though we're a few turns away from catapults, praetorians alone are still a moderate threat against his classical trash. Fighting Mjmd soon will force him to whip his core and delay his own catapults. I'm sure he has the ability to whip enough axes ASAP that we can't take and hold anything important before the our big stack of cats arrives, but that's fine. Forcing out axe whips now is way better than him keeping large cities and using that pop to whip cats later. We want him to cry as he sees Machinery's ETA slip ever farther into the future.
Also the earlier we fight Mjmd the less we have to deal with the dreaded mechanic of city vision!

I like how the potential new city by Renzo will cause Mjmd stress and gives us tactical options. I think leaving the Renzo neighborhood as a sideshow and going straight for Dead Horse (his Moai city) might be a good idea though. The new city next to Renzo could even be disposable, maybe we could bait him into focusing on that thorn in his side while we prepare to attack farther west. The hammer investment could be worth it to distract him and make him feel like he's forced to attack out and remove Renzo's purple tumor.
In the age before city vision, it should still be possible to surprise him with a feint like that. The border is long enough that if he stacks up in Renzo, those units are 5 turns from Dead Horse (6 without bridges)

In any case I think you should reinforce Satricum so a single galley of units can't take it.

In conclusion, while I don't really know what I'm talking about, I do think war soon is good.
About the variations of Plan 1...I prefer overt aggression.
I think Mjmd is probably already in war mode. He knows we have IW, he knows the situation around Renzo is an impending flash point, and he's already fighting Cairo. So I'll bet he's already teching Construction regardless of what we do. He's probably unaware that we don't actually have much of a praet army yet, and may overreact and panic whip even more than he needs to, which helps us in the long run.

I'm not sure what to think about your diplo offer idea. Is your goal that he would basically surrender Renzo without a fight and we then immediately make peace? That sounds far fetched but possible. But do you even want him to give up Renzo?

Maybe there is no dogpile and Mjmd does manage to stall us out in the 1v1. Even then, he would probably be harmed a lot more than us, since we have the food advantage and Police State praets+cats are so cost-effective. At that point he would probably have lost any chance, but we would still stand a chance at killing him in medieval and going on to win the game.

After writing all this I realize I'm probably being overconfident and this attitude is exactly what causes failed classical-era wars.

[Ginger()]

Some first some responses (in no particular order) that immediately come to mind:

$10 says he isn't teching Machinery, rather relying on the Oracle-HG-Engineer(?) dirty pool in his capital to bulb it.

Unless he was sandbagging like Superdeath or Cornflakes, his gpt was ~100, which is roughly on par with us, if you factor in Rep beakers. I plan to fire 4 scientists and swap out of representation next turn, that's going to be at least -40 to our current net research of ~90. That reduces our Construction ETA from 5 turns to about 8 without loans from other players. With saving gold and an academy that will be better than it looks but I'm not optimistic.

I don't think Superdeath joining in is a reasonable thing for him to do. He has two civs of space and is getting out-settled by Jack, he's going to choose naval war with Rome over filling his backlines?   

Yes Mids and MoM is very very good but the turn 114 golden age is going to suck if we're not growing out our cities. Next turn I can liquidate 10 pop across the empire to convert into Praetorians, but then they're costing maintenance until cats arrive. I'm seriously considering spamming loan requests so I can whip a second round of cats in 5 turns. 

I agree that settling now is good, as great crumple/distraction, if it pisses him off and he tunnel vision's it, he probably loses the hammer trade.

No diplo with Cairo yet. Bing and I have settled on 6 turns to war dec, I nagged him to speed up his timeline by a turn. So I might pass the word on to Cairo with a Cu for Cu and 6gold. Hesitated so far because wasn't sure if I really want to commit.

City vision doesn't appear to be in the cards for another 20 turns at least. He'd have to swap all EP to me now to get it in a reasonable time frame which he didn't do last turn. (He actually diverted away, I think other people are dumping their EP on him). 

Mjmd can actually cause us problems with triremes in our inner sea (though each one is a would-be catapult we dont have to face). Satricum is getting reinforced in like 3 turns with a praetorian from Circei, which is damn slow if he wants to hit us, but can't do much better. 

So if you think being overtly aggressive is the play, then I will send the Mjmd the diplo "request". And yes, if he surrenders without much of a fight, (5% chance I give it), then I'm very happy with just one city, a food source to split to the new city, and securing my eastern hinterlands. If he digs in, the play is to crush Dead Horse I agree. I was also thinking to feint by marching diagonally from the new city NE towards Renzo, then march on to the gold/corn city to burn it before he can hook up his iron for crossbows (will be watching the log for great people births). 

For the record, I don't think you overestimate the chances we have of winning a total war by using sheer mass, I think you underestimate how much of a harakiri it would be for our economy. We're gonna be limping to Construction as is without Representation, and Metal Casting to compete on the seas is farther and farther away. 


I'm just so nervous that I'm gonna fuck up the precious little snowball I've accrued thus far.

[Ginger()]

So I've decided to roll the dice, and decided on being direct and confrontational. Settled the city and sent a demand for Renzo offering war with other players and gpt and iron*.
Maybe one of these days I'll be the little liar these peaceful players are plugging away at their "stable borders" until they build up a tech lead, but I think this game's policy is going to be honesty.
I'm curious to see how Mjmd responds, and the situation is getting exciting
He's really blue-balling me with this weekend break at such a decisive time, tsk tsk (is a joke, there are more important things than civ)

I think it's 50/50 that he responds with an insulting city demand or just goes dead silent to make me sweat.

*I wonder if my GPT is misunderstood as some sort of time-scale instead of a bribe offer.

[Ginger()]

Before and after the Persecution of the Masses 
   
   
   

[Ginger()]

For the lurkers who've been asleep or abstaining from other threads, Mjmd has launched his reckless war of unprovoked aggression last turn. I had already planned to swap into Police State for peaceful purposes. Maybe he thinks he can win, maybe he just wants to screw with me; force me out of Rep and crash my tech rate. But I think this means I need to turn it into a knife-fight. The problem is that I do actually need to remove Renzo to secure my flank of new settlements in the east, but the far more effective attack vector is to hit his Moai and Capital. Of course, he is expecting me to hit Renzo. 

I think I'm going to pop a Golden Age next turn, with the goals to hit Construction, Metal Casting, and CoL, ancillary possibilities of HBR or Mono/Priesthood.
"Well didn't you just swap into Police State and liquidate 13 population?"
'Uhh yes, yes I did'
"Well that's stupid, you're stupid"
...maybe...
Here's my reasoning.
I need tech now, not later. And if for the next 20 turns, I am going to be whipping, be it courts or forges or triremes or Praetorians or Catapults, there doesn't seem to be a lot of sense in holding the golden age for later, I hold it for much later and it begs the question wtf are you doing, saving it for next game? Besides I get to run all natural production through the police state 25% modifier.
Great people production is a small concern, but I'm only 40% more effective at that in Golden Age, and civic swaps are a non-issue either. So basically, I am playing a leader who does not need golden ages for conventional use, am in a situation where I desperately need to tech up, and the only thing the really stops me from launching a golden age is the fact that it would be so much better "later", after my cities have grown back. However even if I could get 20 extra pop working commerce tiles if I waited for 5 turns, and kept them throughout the 12 turn golden age, that would be what, 20*12, 240 extra gold I'd be missing out on? Would I pay 200 gold to advance my invasion timeline 5 turns? That's an interesting question, and I think the answer is yes. 

Maybe I should have offered white peace instead of echoing back his insulting city demands   *
If he offers white peace next turn, I think I take it and put the golden age on ice until my periphery cities can grow. I can't rely on Bing joining in, I've seen jack-shit in terms of power from him and his ratings are grossly inflated by barracks (while Mjmd's are notably not, although he does have navy in the Cairo-Bing-Fabled Sea). It's possible he's using this opportunity to farmer's gambit up to Knights, but he'll never reach there in time, not even with his criminally late GLH build. 

There's also the option of sitzkrieg. I have neither the accumulated hitters nor the catapult tech to be able to properly invade, and neither does he. The biggest threat I face is 2-mover raiding in the east or a trireme choke at sea. A real fight is not really in the cards atm, the declaration feels premature on Mjmd's part and more characterized by an expression of displeasure at the settlement or a desire to formalize the turn split with himself on second half**. A 12-turn golden age is a long, long time, I can start growing now, then rehire the specialists in 5 turns, then liquidate all the stored fat after 12 turns.

At the very start of this thread Laz asked me to evaluate myself as a player, strengths and weaknesses. I responded that I can whip up big stacks or I can tech, but I can never seem to balance both. Well firing off the golden age seems to me like the best way to balance the situation. I might wait a turn before shooting it, I don't know for sure. 

* He demanded Virconium, I sent back a demand for Renzo.

**(honestly if I ever scrounge up the time to play another pitboss and it's a small, reliable PYFT group, I'll vote for sequential processing, much less headache).

[Ginger()]

I couldn't do it, I guess I've fallen victim to a strain of the "one more tech" syndrome, where the afflicted waits for better results, letting the opportunities of the moment pass them by. That or I had the good sense not to pop GA when my empire was operating at half capacity. Niels Bohr becomes an academy in Rome and I'll launch my golden age later in 9 turns. 
I was feeling down when I woke up today, I just had to look at the crop yield demos, and I feel much better   .  Mjmd shark-finning to keep up his military? Love to see it. The power difference between us is stabilizing now, as he declared and had first-draw on the whipping, only ~11% difference now. 

Lurker question: two players have construction now on KTB, but according to this screenshot, I see no bridge.
Is this a graphical error or is the Chariot actually safe from Renzo's 1-movers?
   


On a side note today, I wanted to give some commentary on the map. 
Let me get this out of the way first; I really like the map, its a solid, balanced map, with reasonably interesting symmetrical geography and the only way I notice these cracks in the picture is because I've stared at it for far too long. So thank you for the map Tarkeel, and please continue to provide them for us   .
That said there are 2 strategic problems with my slice of the map that I've encountered. I'll ignore possible micro-level critiques because the starts are as balanced as can possibly be without actually copying and pasting, and it would be rich of me to complain of that initially awkward copper location, when it's now one of the best cities in the world. 

Problem 1: I cannot access the marble sea from the other large oceans with a canal. Bing and Cornflakes can redeploy their entire navies to that theater if they wanted to, but there's no way for me to do the same, not a problem now because they're ostensibly allies, but later...   

Problem 2: I'm forced into conflict with specifically one other player. It's not quite as big a problem as with the PB60 helices, but I dislike having a designated enemies and single best expansion target from the game's start. My border with Bing is made of desert and mountains, with Mjmd, its riverland. If I had a city on Renzo's location or one of the hills in the landbridge, it would be a different story, because then I could ostensibly expand into the other continent. But I was never going get to settle Renzo first. Despite it being equidistant to our capitals, for Mjmd it was a natural extension of his first city settled on wet corn as an immediate priority, for me I had to go around a lake through comparatively barren grassland or plains rivers.

[civac2]

I'm not sure the bridge graphics are 100% reliable but this does look like no Construction.

[Amicalola]

Even with construction there wouldn't be a bridge there, I believe. I think it has to be two roads either vertical or horizontal (not diagonal) with a river between them for a bridge to form.

[Tarkeel]

On a side note today, I wanted to give some commentary on the map. 
Let me get this out of the way first; I really like the map, its a solid, balanced map, with reasonably interesting symmetrical geography and the only way I notice these cracks in the picture is because I've stared at it for far too long. So thank you for the map Tarkeel, and please continue to provide them for us   .

Thanbks for the kind words. I'll try to get back to your points after the game, but in general I aim for fun and interesting over completely balanced.