Dave Fires Up The Epstein Drive [Japan]

[oledavy]

As a random aside, I'm considering offering to tell Woden where his coal is, either gratis or for a finder's fee of 10-25 gold. Have I mentioned I really need gold right now....

I have deferred it for the moment because I didn't want to bring attention to my completion of industrialization, in case people aren't checking the tech screen every turn. 

What do you think Chevalier?

Also, not to self, the caravel upgrade to ironclad is 220 gold, 110 with Professional Army. 14 turns until Archduke and I can war.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I'm inclined towards offering the info gratis - you want to cultivate Woden as an ally, and selling the information seems a bit mercenary. Being open and generous seems the wisest course, what with the "we shall most assuredly hang seperately" state of the game at the moment. With goodwill, perhaps you can get the small amount of gold later.

[oledavy]

Woden allied with Archduke. 

[oledavy]

So, first allow me to explain why I think this is just objectively a bad move, and second, how this changes my plans going forward.

Why This Was A Bad Move

Oh Woden.... I guess I shouldn't be surprised, Woden is playing the exact same game he played in PBEM2, only instead of an intangible "build until I am strong enough" objective, he's playing for Minas Geraeses. Here is the wager he has made: 

          "I bet Archduke won't kill Dave and put himself in an unassailable position before I reach Nationalism and upgrade frigates."

I would bet he will have nationalism sometime in 20-30 turns. He may even be sidestepping grabbing a tier II government to make it happen. I'll check in game to try and evaluate when he actually gets there, but suffice it to say, I imagine his Alliances with me and Archduke get him there, or almost. 

So, I am properly scared of Minas Geraeses, but I don't think it's going to work well for him. Simply because I am so close to subs. About the time he deploys a fleet of them, I'll have subs to counter. Moreover, since Archduke is now all but guaranteed 1,000 science from Darwin, I have a pretty good idea what he's going to be beelining. Brazil's UU trashes ironclads, frigates, etc, but subs are going to be its downfall. It will be close, but I seriously doubt he can assemble an unstoppable fleet of his UU before both Archduke and I have sub fleets. 

This all assumes that his bet is correct, which while I am optimistic about my odds, I am not sure about them. He is guaranteeing himself peace on the hope I don't die, then betting his UU can win the game for him. 

I've already establishing that I think the premise is faulty and the payoff is iffy. Now for the last part. The whole point of our alliance, as I understood it, was to try and counterbalance Archduke. If Archduke was facing armed and dangerous foes on both sides, he would be unlikely to attack either one of us. Moreover, he was significantly more likely to attack me, as I'm the one with the fleet. Probably nothing bad would happen if he ignored Woden and attacked me, but if he attacks Woden and ignores me, I'm going to go raze his capital and sail to Woden's aid. 

So, with this in mind, he traded a marginal chance that he would be attacked, for absolute security, but at the cost of alienating his only ally, risking the game's outcome on his bet, and based on the idea that Minas Geraeses can win this thing for him. He has talked himself one last time into his PBEM 2 fallacy: "I can build my way out of this situation, if only I have 30 more turns." Only this time, Alhambram's cossacks are waiting on the other side. 

Anyway, I'm miffed because I thought Woden and I had the makings of a genuine partnership this game, but at the end, turns out he's willing to sell me out for a grape. Shame on me for being fooled.

What I'm Going to Do

I am upgrading the likelihood that Archduke makes an all out naval push to kill me and try to win the game from decently likely to very likely. 

Right now, I am in the process of working my way through the cities in Spain. I will continue doing this, but always with an eye towards being able to withdraw and rally my fleet before Archduke arrives. I have 10 turns left, so as long as I avoid committing too hard, I should be fine. I'm irritated that I can't fling the entirety of my fleet south of Spain to take his capital and wrap up this war quickly, but c'est la vie. I'm going to adapt and stay flexible based on what Archduke does. At the very least, I can snap up De Soto and Hong Kong. My only real concern on this front is that Archduke or Woden use our enforced peace to screw with my attempts to take them/try to take them from under my nose

Gold my biggest concern right now. In the coming turns I am going to become dependent on trade routes to Woden just to fund my massive fleet, and I'll need a lot more gold on top of that to do ironclad and submarine upgrades. Since he has an alliance with Archduke, Archduke can now see my trade routes and possible go raid them. I need to be cognizant of this and possibly detail fleet elements to protect my vital trade routes. I will additionally be looking for ways to generate more gold domestically. 

Libson's suzerain bonus just got a lot more juicy. 

I consider my agreements with Woden effectively abrogated at this point, and am planning to take Jerusalem. Woden has no fleet to do anything about it, and I have no interest in working with him anymore. 

I will additionally examine the possibility of taking Libson, but that will depend much on what Archduke is doing. 

There is no more meaningful diplomacy to be done this game, and I doubt I will be using the diplo thread again. CFC is dying on the table. Singaboy is all but out of the game. Woden has shown his true colors, leaving Archduke my worthy adversary for victory. There are no more friends, no more allies to be had.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

He...allied with Archduke?

Man, his diplomacy had me fooled, but it turns out my initial instincts about Woden - ie don't trust him as far as you can throw him, he'll try to play both sides against each other, commit to nothing, and spend his time in builder mode (just until this next project finishes!) - were correct. For a while there I thought he genuinely appreciated the English threat.

Okay, so, could he be thinking? Obviously he can't possibly believe he could win the game if Archduke conquers you, so either he accepts that his alliance makes your conquest far more likely and he's playing for second, or he doesn't think that Archduke is likely to conquer you now. While Singaboy seems totally listless and finished with this game, Woden never gave me that impression - I don't think he's playing for second place. Thus he must think you and Archduke are evenly matched? Or close enough as makes no difference?

Well, is he right? Archduke will outscience you, but he needs a few turns to get the conquered territories in order. However, he's already accounted for that by shooting for Darwin, giving him a 1000 science boost in a few turns - damn, that was exactly the right play to shore up a weakness. I keep telling myself how much he's improved, and yet I continue to underestimate him. So, long-term, Archduke can eventually reach a key tech ahead of Japan and then proceed to dominance (what would that key tech be? I'm not certain of the naval tech tree, *is* there a game-changing jump to the next tier of units?). Plus he's got many times as many Dockyards for juicy great admirals.

Okay, what about the short term? Here, I think there's a window. You guys have tech parity, and rough production parity when the VA is balanced against Scandinavia + England. He has GAs, but they can only be in one place at a time, and you have DOTF/Divine Wind to equalize defensive battles. Until he can get all the conquests in order and producing, he's not actually got that much of an edge, once the OIA fleet matches his.

Is it possible to strike first at Archduke? We've seen how hard defense is in this game, and now there's no need to defend Woden. You have the huge strategic vulnerability of the VA, which of course must be defended, but I still feel that staying pinned to your own coasts is a recipe for ultimate defeat. Instead, would it be possible to detail a small land army and a small naval squadron to hold the VA, while most of your fleet burns down as much of Archduke's empire as you can? That might lead to a war of mutual annihilation (exactly what Woden wants), but if you can somehow torch half of his cities or so, his advantages all vanish and I think Japan is in a commanding position to end the game.

[oledavy]

@TheArchduke, 
That's a nice way to build an army!

See, it's comments like this that just blatantly infuriate me. 

To be clear, I'm not upset about Woden, or Singaboy, or anything else doing things in their own self interest that hurt me, that's just part of any game. What upsets me is when they do things that lessen their own chances of winning. It's hard for me to see this in any other light. Best case scenario for Woden, Archduke and I beat each other up and he overruns us with Minas Geraeses before we get subs. 

I seriously doubt that will be the outcome. 

I'm also annoyed at Singaboy's defeatism, but I can't really blame him. Well, maybe a little. 

And then there's the fact that Archduke just got frickin 8 free swords. Hardly game breaking, but just brutal. Now defending the northern sea around Saturn became a much bigger priority. Thankfully, he doesn't have gunpowder and is now going to have to choose between beelining subs or side-tracking to gunpower. 

Other downsides of Woden allying with Archduke. Archduke got the DL Inspiration, which he didn't need. He also gets free line of sight on the entire sea between me and his capital, meaning a capital strike is all but out of the question. 

Moreover, Woden can now effectively tell him exactly what I'm doing if he so chooses. Thankfully a naval contest at sea for me is more a question of brute force rather than surprise, but damn, this is annoying.

[oledavy]

At least Singaboy is joining with me in conveying to Woden how big he fucked up. 

What a strange diplomatic game it has been.

[oledavy]

Turns 133-134

This game sincerely is not good for my mental health at this point. 

Nothing to do but soldier on, but man, I want to catch a break more than anything right now.  

So, here's what's up in my seas. 



On turn 133 I began my assault on De Soto proper. CFCJesterfool had a crossbow in the water which I promptly murdered. Those defenses aren't going to hold to what I'm packing. Note he also has an apostle, hopefully he doesn't convert the city in the interim and make it difficult for me to convey it back for DoTF. Actually, dead horse is still only in 1 city, what's going on here...



Well, someone is not even trying at this point. I can't say I blame him though. Unfortunately, it's probably going to take some time to put CFCJesterfool out of his misery. 

My fears of Archduke entering my waters may be overblown, and I will get to that in a bit, but I absolutely cannot commit my navy so far south that it can't reassemble to defend the homeland in time for the big t145. 

So for now, I'm focusing my efforts on De Soto and Hong Kong. Hong Kong would be very nice because it will give me a friendly port south of the strait, and would likely end up being my front line for a naval battle with Archduke. 

Anyway, what did CFCJesterfool do between turns?



Caravel upgrade is the absolute worst thing that could have happened for me between turns. WP Jesterfool. That city would have fallen this turn, now it will be an additional turn of slog. 



Elsewhere, I'm continuing to move ships east towards Hong Kong. I'll reassess after that depending on if I see Archduke's fleet or not. I really need pickets towards the east. 

I also will need to get a navy into the northern sea around Saturn. 



Guilds came in, and I swapped to Serfdom. Painful, but necessary. 



5-6 workers coming up. I have a lot of forests to chop, hills to mine, and some crabs to harvest if I want to upgrade and not go bankrupt. Navies are expensive yo. 

I'm probably going to cap ship-building at some point and pre-build a bunch more ships, but not complete them. Ready to complete when I lose ships abroad.  

It's now a hard burn to Mercantilism for Privateers and that all important electricity Eureka. 

In international news, Archduke finished a third great person project and landed Darwin. Mendeleev is up next. 



I prefer him to the alternative, since only a research agreement can supply the chemistry Eureka. It's just not a terribly important tech. 

There are 7 industrial era techs I could get the Eureka for. 2 would be terrible and I will get soon anyway. 4 are decent, but one, Steam power, would be godly to land......



Here's hoping!

I might delay finishing Steam Power to see if I land it. I will likely need to stop short of my full rate anyway when I am researching electricity, as I will have to finish 3 privateers first. I'll check out the math next turn. 

No though, 14% shot? I would take it. Those are the XCOM shots that always hit, right?

For those following along with the back and forth in the diplo thread, here is the offer I sent Woden.



Finally, with Archduke snugly in Norway now, here is an update of our critical stats. 










Archduke is now making the same amount of science as me, and he has the same number of techs (although I have at least one very expensive one compared to a cheaper one on his end). Darwin is going to bring him slightly into the lead. I expect he's going to beeline subs too, or detour to gunpowder. At any rate, based on having more pop, his tech lead is only going to grow. 

I need more pop and rationalism yesterday. 

I do hold a healthy lead on him in culture production, and 2-3 civics, I don't recall exactly how many at the moment. 

Our militaries are dead even, although he's about to get 288 strength for free. 

At least him completing 3 GS projects and likely a GM project coming up means 4 less ships to deal with than I would have had otherwise. 

So, I estimate about 300 of his current strength is tied up in obsolete units. That leaves 600. He probably has about 12 frigates and caravels. 

My policy is maintaining parity + his number of ships divided by 3. Since his ships all get an extra move and have GAs, he can determine when and where he wants to engage and disengage. The GA bonus covers a small area, but by comparison, Divine Wind also isn't everywhere. I estimate he can first strike me to kill one of my ships with every 3 of his. I need to have enough ships to eat that first strike, then hit back just as hard. So, if he has 12 ships, I need 16. If he has 15, I need 20. I also need promotions on all of mine ASAP. 

I have 15 ships at present, and as stated many times, the biggest problem going forward is going to be economically supporting the fleet. I will likely have 21 ships total in the next half dozen turns. As soon as mercantilism is in, I will cram out 4 privateers, finish up the last few frigates, and start pre-building privateers to turn into subs everywhere. 

There are effectively two races going on right now. 

1. To get the biggest navy ASAP
2. To get to the next tier of naval tech ASAP

I won't bore everyone with all the details, but I estimate that I am about 20 turns from my first submarine builds/upgrades. 

I estimate Woden is about 20-30 turns from his UU. 

I estimate Archduke is about 20-25 turns from deploying subs of his own. 

Much will hinge on how fast and how many units of the next tier of military tech people are able to get out. 

In the interim, my priorities are building as many frigates and caravels/ironclads as possible, and boosting my GPT as high as possible. 

I rank it as very likely Archduke will come after me. Otherwise, as soon as our peace treaty runs out, I will snap up his western Norwegian holdings. Moreover, attacking me right now, while I am trying to consume Spain and boost my city and population count, just makes a lot of sense. He has an opportunity here, will he sense it and take it? I feel the answer is yes. We shall see. I hope to have about 25-30 ships ready for him when he does. It will be a battle for the ages. I need to win quickly though, if he is able to attack and withdraw, attack and withdraw, and get a larger navy than me, I will never catch up. But, I simultaneously absolutely need to not be caught flat-footed on the race to subs. 

Building is basically over at this point, aside from a few minor builds here and there, it's all military from here on out. 

There are three routes Archduke can come at me from. West through Woden is unlikely, I would have plenty of warning. Southwest around Woden and arriving near Ceres is also pretty unlikely, just due to how long of a route it is. His homeland would be undefended for some time. 

His most likely route is coming from the east, passing Hong Kong on its way towards the strait and the former city of Jotunheim. I am allocating forces based on this possibility. We'll see what happens!

Interesting goings on in the diplo thread. I do now acknowledge there might be benefits to Woden allying with Archduke, although I think knowledge of his movements will do little to make up for the extra forces Woden could muster. This game is a more a raw calculus of force application at this point. Still, it is cause enough to reconsider my earlier pronouncements on no more diplo this game, at least for a little while.  

I really hate this diplo thread though, I feel it fundamentally changes the game and not in a good way.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

The diplomacy thread heated up overnight! Lot to process there.

Overall, your plans seem exactly right to me. Numbers and tech will decide the next war, and you're working hard to at least maintain parity in both. It feels like everyone's stuck in a Red Queen's Race, running as hard as they can only to stay in place relative to everyone else. But the numbers you showed are a little reassuring - Archduke will eventually grow enough to overwhelm you, but he isn't there yet. For now, until he can improve those Norwegian cities, he's just at parity. In fact, were it not for the free armies England gets, I would think that you actually stood a chance of attacking and capturing the Nordic holdings if he builds improvements rather than military in those cities.

So yeah, I like your grand strategy.

Looking at the diplomacy thread, Singaboy raises an interesting idea - what if Archduke goes after him, instead of you? It goes against my own strategic instincts, which are generally to take the shortest path to victory (he runs over you and the game is over), but maybe Archduke doesn't feel up to taking Japan in a head-on fight yet. The German core is more powerful and developed than Norway's, and Germany won't have time in the peace to rebuild a large army. So the English could launch a new war of conquest in ten turns, but count on distance to keep the OIA out of it while they snap up a brand-new core of cities, which would then give them the decisive edge they want. It still strikes me as risky - I'd prefer to use my stacking GA's while they're good and bull straight for the VA. If I can sink the OIA fleet in defense of that city, then burn it to the ground (or even take it, with my free garrison units), nothing and no one would stop me. Archduke might not see it that way, though.

If he does go for Germany, what should the OIA's response be? I see three possibilities:

1)Confront the English fleet in German waters. We lose DOTF and possibly Divine Wind, but we have our forces in the decisive theater. If Archduke's fleet can be trapped and destroyed, then the world is your oyster, and options 2 and 3 become much more viable. So great rewards. Risks, though, too - it sends the fleet a long way away, without support, and it might be as ineffective as the Scandinavian Intervention was.

2)Use the distraction to attack Scandinavia. Possibly could divert English troops, expands OIA holdings - if you get far enough, it may even equalize the two empires in territory and population. Downsides, Archduke could ignore a Norwegian invasion in favor of the more decisive theater of Germany, relying on that horde of swords to defend. The OIA doesn't really have much of an army to speak of and it would have to be built, further straining finances and production.

3)Use the distraction to finish off Spain. You add another player's territory to the empire, mitigating the losses of Scandinavia and Germany. Downsides, obviously Germany is run over and Archduke STILL has a lead. Spanish war could drag on and become a Spanish ulcer. This one has quite a bit of downside and only modest upsides.

Obviously my instincts favor the head-on confrontation with England - let's settle this game, one way or the other, in the waters of Germany (the Baltic Sea? The North Sea? Guess it's not really north on this world). If Archduke attacks us instead, well, then let's sink the damn fleet and go trash his empire. Either way I favor decisive action as soon as practicable.

[oledavy]

Turn is here, but I don't have time to play it and give it proper thought before heading to work. 

Just as well, as I have a big question today I need to properly mull over. 



What I didn't mention in the last turn report is that I have set up my fleet in such a way that in 2 turns I can begin assaulting Jerusalem, with the city likely falling in 3 turns. 

I now have Woden's money for the city if I want it. 

But this will end any chance of cooperation with him, moreover, he may start sharing my fleet locations with Archduke in the diplo thread. 

Then again, does it really matter that much if he does? And he would only be hurting his own chances to win if he helps Archduke defeat me. 

He's been surprisingly willing to cooperate since his backstab. But that doesn't change the fact that he backstabbed me at a critical moment with his alliance. Regardless how helpful he might end up being with intel, he still cannot be counted upon. 

Chevalier, what do you think?