WW 31 Game Thread PARANOIA

[Ichabod]

I hope everyone can agree with my logic regarding why Xenu should scan Novice today. Don't waste your power in me, Xenu, there's no reason why I'd lie about my bad role or it's name (and my role name doesn't even make sense with my actual power, so if I was lying, at least I'd lie a bit better).

[Jowy]

I think it'd be really funny if I end up getting killed because I've been too cheerful

Your balance talk doesn't make much sense. If scum with those roles would be required to always use them to heal or double charge town power roles or else they'd get lynched, then the roles are essentially weaker than if they were just vanilla scum with no powers, which goes against your idea that scum must have powerful roles in this setup. I also disagree with your whole premise that scum must have strong roles. This is a highly confusing game with multiple factions, tons of roles and even a lot of town powers that can sabotage us: Lewwyn killing a target he wanted to protect, Xenu getting a townie and himself killed by role name not matching the role, Ryan getting our vigs killed, our vigs who have to kill every night were very likely to be hitting other townies and also very likely to get miss-lynched at some point.

I voted for Matt to put pressure on him, not to lynch him. I didn't want to gamble on Matt yesterday, of course I'm not gonna gamble on him tomorrow when we'll be even further down in numbers.

Btw Xenu, did you ever receive that private message from Ichabod? His role is completely unproven as of yet.

[Jowy]

Oh, and of course Catwalk could have taken many a villager with him, and probably did.

[spacetyrantxenu]

I suppose I could have let Catwalk clear me by agreeing to his idiotic "let's just lynch someone else today" plan, in which case he'd have blown me up in the night, along with any other people he had IEDs strapped to. I'd have some solid town cred then. Would that have been better? I don't know what else to do.

Anyway, someone coming right out and asking me not to scan them is pretty silly, I think. Are you playing WIFOM with me? (Yeah, I googled that one after it kept coming up here in this thread). I've already confirmed your ability, since you were able to send me that message a few days ago, which I acknowledged. And I caught Catwalk in a really, really dumb lie. Surely no one else would have played so carelessly as to make that same mistake, especially since we've seen a few examples already where role name and role effect don't seem to have an obvious correlation (Lewwyn, anyone?) So do you not want me to scan you because you've made the same mistake Catwalk made and are now committed to a silly lie about your role name, which could be a careless town play or a scum move (either of which would put you at the same risk of being lynching if it were discovered), or do you not want me to scan you because you really would prefer I check into Novice, because you really think there may be something to find there? Obviously I know which reason you're saying, but I don't know which one I believe after having thought about it. And I don't think I'm inclined to follow the request because now I'm even more suspicious of you for having made it.

Preview edit: Cross post with Jowy, yes, I confirmed somewhere in this thread before that I received the message from Ichabod. At least I really think I confirmed it -- if I didn't before, yes, he did message me and I messaged him back, and that was it.

[Ichabod]

I think it'd be really funny if I end up getting killed because I've been too cheerful

Your balance talk doesn't make much sense. If scum with those roles would be required to always use them to heal or double charge town power roles or else they'd get lynched, then the roles are essentially weaker than if they were just vanilla scum with no powers, which goes against your idea that scum must have powerful roles in this setup. I also disagree with your whole premise that scum must have strong roles. This is a highly confusing game with multiple factions, tons of roles and even a lot of town powers that can sabotage us: Lewwyn killing a target he wanted to protect, Xenu getting a townie and himself killed by role name not matching the role, Ryan getting our vigs killed, our vigs who have to kill every night were very likely to be hitting other townies and also very likely to get miss-lynched at some point.

I voted for Matt to put pressure on him, not to lynch him. I didn't want to gamble on Matt yesterday, of course I'm not gonna gamble on him tomorrow when we'll be even further down in numbers.

Btw Xenu, did you ever receive that private message from Ichabod? His role is completely unproven as of yet.

"If scum with those roles would be required to always use them to heal or double charge town power roles or else they'd get lynched, then the roles are essentially weaker than if they were just vanilla scum with no powers, which goes against your idea that scum must have powerful roles in this setup."

C'mon, Jowy, you know what I meant. You have to use your powers on whomever is hurt and on every single night to not appear suspicious. So, you have to heal villagers when there's no scum for you to heal. That doesn't mean you can't heal scum, when one of them is hurt (and, besides, if you are town, no one would blame you for healing scum). But then you start saying that you should get town cred for healing a townie? That doesn't even make sense if you are town, since you weren't sure about Qgq role when you healed him.

But here's the thing, let's analyze your heals. Night 2, you could heal Lewwyn or Ryan. You healed Ryan. Ok, you and Lewwyn don't like each other, but Lewwyn has more WW reputation than Ryan. Night 3, you could heal Serdoa, MJW and Qgq - Serdoa is a very good WW player, MJW had a powerful power, but you chose Qgq - no offense to Qgq or Ryan, but these choices seem strange.

And let's take a look at days where we had scum near the lynch:

Day 1:

6 votes: Azza (Bobchillingworth, MJW (ya that one), Rowain, zakalwe, Imana-665-C, Lewwyn)
3 votes: catwalk (Ichabod, Qgqqqqq, spacetyrantxenu)
3 votes: Qgqqqqq (novice, Old Harry Gazglum)
2.23 votes: Bobchillingworth (Serdoa, Mattimeo)
2 votes: MJW (sunrise089, Azza)
1 votes: sunrise089 (Merovech)
1 votes: Gazglum (Azarius)
1 votes: Old Harry (Catwalk)
1 votes: zakalwe (Jowy)

Day 4:

6 votes: Azarius (novice, Jowy, Ichabod, zakalwe, Imana-665-C, Bobchillingworth)
4.23 votes: Bobchillingworth (Ryan, Mattimeo, Merovech, Azarius)
2 votes: Rowain (spacetyrantxenu, sunrise089)
2 votes: sunrise089 (Rowain, Qgqqqqq)
1 votes: spacetyrantxenu (Serdoa)

Interestingly enough, Jowy voted for Bob on day 3, but didn't follow up on day 4, when the lynch was closer:

Day 3:

9 votes: Gazglum (zakalwe, Azarius, Bobchillingworth, Serdoa, Imana-665-C, Qgqqqqq, Merovech, Catwalk, MJW (ya that one))
5.23 votes: bobchillingworth (Ichabod, Mattimeo, Gazglum, Jowy, Ryan)
2 votes: Rowain (sunrise089, novice)
1 votes: Qgqqqqq (spacetyrantxenu)
1 votes: Azarius (Rowain)

Ironically, I have the same bad voting record than Jowy. In my defense, I started the case against bob when he was considered pretty townish due to the Azza lynch.

And here's day 5, where bob didn't have any chance to be lynched:

7 votes: Ryan (zakalwe, Imana-665-C, novice, Serdoa, sunrise089, Qgqqqqq, Ichabod)
4 votes: Catwalk (Bobchillingworth, Rowain, Ryan, spacetyrantxenu)
2 votes: Bobchillingworth (Mattimeo, Jowy)
2 votes: no lynch (Merovech, Catwalk)

Jowy is back at him. So, Jowy voted bob on day 3 and 5, but not on day 4, when he was really close to being lynched. That's very interesting.

---

And here's a very interesting post, made by Jowy after the day 5 reveal of Bob being a third faction:

Well at least I tried to lynch em on 3/5 days :P Gz guys.
And thx for killing Azza for us. Let's see if we can catch one by ourselves this game and not just kill all our vigs and seers.

Btw, this post:

I totally understand you. I'm very certain about him, but there is no definitive proof and if I'm wrong (heck, even if I'm right in case we have several factions) we lose a good role that can definitely help us. That's pretty much the only reason I'm reading still here actually, because I think about what other explanations there are, for the kills (and missing ones) as well as for his behaviour.

And as stated above, if we have multiple factions, what seems very likely by now, we could simply keep him "protected" by Merovech and stop him from killing while letting him scan. He could lie obviously but in case of multiple factions he needs to get rid of them anyhow, so I wouldn't see the incentive of lieing. And with villagers he really can't lie more than once before we are certain that he is scum. A 1 for 1 trade definitely isn't the worst thing in the world. We are still 15 players, so even with a high amount of scum I would expect that we are at least 10 villagers to 5 scum at this point.

On the other hand, his complete lack of even in the slightest trying to make this argument himself (or any argument really) does not make me feel comfortable letting him live. It feels to me like I would reward him for basically doing the most anti-village play he could. And that doesn't feel right.

I think was very out of character for Serdoa. We might want to revisit him tomorrow.

That comment about bob seems a bit with someone trying to get credit. But the part about Serdoa is worse. Why? Because Jowy healed Serdoa instead of Novice and Zak on night 4. Serdoa, who he suspected before and after that. Do you see the pattern of healing the most mislynchable of the possible options? I see the pattern. AND NOVICE WAS CLEARED BY RYAN ALREADY ON NIGHT 3, but Jowy still healed Serdoa in front of him, which really doesn't make sense. And that post attacking Serdoa was made after Ryan's death and the reveal that he was townie, which meant Serdoa and Novice were very likely townies too - people called Jowy on that and he changed his stance pretty quickly, but that seems like a bit of a slip (especially considering Serdoa was the big name campaigning against Ryan, so he was the perfect mislynch to go next, if it weren't for the fact that he was cleared).

So, there you go, Jowy healed the "wrong" player every single night. And his voting is pretty strange with the bob on 3 and 5, but not on 4.

I think that's enough, coupled with the meta considerations, for us to lynch Jowy.

[Ichabod]

You didn't message me back, Xenu. At least I didn't receive any message.

[Ichabod]

I suppose I could have let Catwalk clear me by agreeing to his idiotic "let's just lynch someone else today" plan, in which case he'd have blown me up in the night, along with any other people he had IEDs strapped to. I'd have some solid town cred then. Would that have been better? I don't know what else to do.

Anyway, someone coming right out and asking me not to scan them is pretty silly, I think. Are you playing WIFOM with me? (Yeah, I googled that one after it kept coming up here in this thread). I've already confirmed your ability, since you were able to send me that message a few days ago, which I acknowledged. And I caught Catwalk in a really, really dumb lie. Surely no one else would have played so carelessly as to make that same mistake, especially since we've seen a few examples already where role name and role effect don't seem to have an obvious correlation (Lewwyn, anyone?) So do you not want me to scan you because you've made the same mistake Catwalk made and are now committed to a silly lie about your role name, which could be a careless town play or a scum move (either of which would put you at the same risk of being lynching if it were discovered), or do you not want me to scan you because you really would prefer I check into Novice, because you really think there may be something to find there? Obviously I know which reason you're saying, but I don't know which one I believe after having thought about it. And I don't think I'm inclined to follow the request because now I'm even more suspicious of you for having made it.

Preview edit: Cross post with Jowy, yes, I confirmed somewhere in this thread before that I received the message from Ichabod. At least I really think I confirmed it -- if I didn't before, yes, he did message me and I messaged him back, and that was it.

I'd never in a million years lie about my ability name if I was scum. Like I've said, the only unconfirmed ability is from Novice, so it makes sense to check him (because he could have lied about the name of the ability if it was really damning, and faked another power role to boot - like i've said, it only makes sense if he's a godfather). Why would I lie about my ability name if I can prove that my ability is just a "send message" thing. It's not like I have anything to hide about it, like Catwalk did and, I'm supposing, Novice could have done too. My idea just make sense, wether you suspect me or not.

[spacetyrantxenu]

You didn't message me back, Xenu. At least I didn't receive any message.

wtf really? I don't know what went wrong, but that explains why you never got around to responding to my silly "multiply 3.14 by the player's number that you want to mention" code that I sent you in my reply. I remember spending about ten minutes trimming my message down to the 160 character limit. Which one of us would have had to be blocked or redirected or whatever for that reply to fail? I guess it doesn't matter now -- the larger point is that your skill pretty much sucks, but I confirm that its effect was as you described it.

I don't know why anyone would lie about something like their role name when with a bit of creative thinking you can explain just about any name in a plausible enough way. That's why Catwalk's lie was just batshit insane. He could have said "Absorption: absorbs attacks and reflects it back to the attacker" to explain his flavor without lying about the name, and also covering the kill ability in case Ryan got around to scanning him. But maybe he panicked, I dunno.

As for you, I just get suspicious when people specifically say "don't target me", it really, really makes me want to target you. Not to confirm the flavor, since that's neither useful (already confirmed) nor what I can do with my role anyway. It would be to see if you've painted yourself into a corner like Catwalk did with his lie.

As for Novice, I'd have to believe Ryan was lying about him to think he's scum now. Ryan died and flipped villager, not third party, so I don't know what possible motive he'd have had to lie about Novice. I'd rather not waste a scan on him since we're dreadfully short of confirmed town around here and it's getting really late in the game. If he's a godfather like you're saying, maybe I'll have to eat my hat over that decision. I wouldn't be the only person he'd have fooled in that event. I just don't see it.

So maybe scanning Novice isn't a bad idea, but I don't think it's a better idea than checking you since you really don't seem to want me to scan you.

[novice]

I think scanning me is a fine idea. I also agree with Ichabod that Jowy's Bob voting is weird.

[Mattimeo]

* Mattimeo continues sleeping