[PB64] naufragar's bingo parlor for assassins

[naufragar]

Another solution that I brought up is to let both of you settle (Amica's city would have to move 1W). Would that be mole palatable to you?

I was about to settle 1SE of Amica's Threemosabe. One of us would invalidate the other, even 1 tile away.


I'm pretty tired and not up for a very long bitter rant. And, frankly, given how many days this whole situation has been stewing, it's been tough to keep up my white hot rage. So let me just make a note of Commodore's "Solomonic wisdom" joke. Solomon proposed splitting a baby in two to satisfy two mothers who claimed it. The fake mother agreed; the real mother ceded her claim to keep the baby whole, so Solomon knew the one that cared was the real one. Flipping a coin gives me two options: the right one or the unjust one. Agreeing to a coin flip, in my eyes, gives Amica 50% more chance than he deserves. But what other choice do I have? It's either abide by a potentially adverse judgment or step away from the game. The day or two after the pause I was leaning that latter way.

But I said "bitter rant" not "angry rant." I guess my mood swings. I've never backed away from a civ game, and I'd hate to leave these people in the lurch. But I want to be very clear that I'm accepting a coin flip not because I'm Solomon's false mother, but because I'm just tired and resigned.

Lurkers, thank you for your work. I think we have some very deep disagreements, but thanks all the same. And I don't think Amica's a malicious guy, so I'm sorry to lock horns in this way, but again, it's very hard for me to see another side.

[naufragar]

This game is just so exhausting. And this wasn't even a war turn:


I take this to mean "In 10 turns, we should attack Ginger together, me over land with knights and you from the sea with galleons."

This is a bad idea in a game where all I have are bad ideas:



I'm living under permanent threat of Amicalolan invasion. Amica can hit of of my two fronts in about 2 turns. In the same way, he can defend from any attack from me with a stack on the designated square. I, on the other hand, have no way of reinforcing both sides. I either have to keep two armies equivalent to Amica's one on either side of my empire, or I consign myself to some immediate losses if Amica invades. Meanwhile, Comm is suggesting that I pull forces from my front (and remember I need to keep about double Amica's power on my borders at all times) in order to invade 9 city Ginger who is the game-leading power, when I have no idea how defended his southern cities are.

So let's think about....Long Term Plans:

Vendetta against Amica

Well, I have a lot of practice ignoring every other aspect of the game in order to have a death feud with Amicalola. In fact, after a few months and a couple pitsboss, it's about my natural state of being.

Plus, if I don't keep slowing Amica down, he wins the game:


This is, admittedly, in a golden age, but it's a Mausoleum-boosted golden age, so 12 whole turns of this garbage. I've said again and again that I don't understand the rest of the field's passivity. Comm refuses to even glance at Amica's islands, which have powered him throughout the game. Ginger is so scarred from the early turns that he hasn't done anything with the world's highest military nor has he made any moves to turn his first-to bonuses into concrete advantages. (If Amica nabs the Taj, I'll scream.) You already know the story with Gav. I've never seen Superdeath this anemic pacifistic. Have the other players already given up? That's ludicrous. Amica can't get to space without all his neighbors ignoring him, but they do seem content to do just that, and the other contenders (read: Ginger) seem allergic to initiative. Part of the reason this game is so exhausting is that it feels like all the other players have decided that they are giving up unless somebody else bails them out. Holy smokes I hate that attitude.

But since I'm constitutionally incapable of doing the same, the weight of stopping Amica is on me. So I made a plan:


The numbers represent Galleon moves. Amica's north cities were practically all undefended last I checked. Now, Amica has tech vision on me, so this should be the least surprising attack, but, heck, 4 galleons with 12 units do fork a lot of different cities. But I won't have a naval advantage for very long with Amica's absolutely dominant GNP. So Commodore's suggestion comes at a terrible time.

The "b" signs stand for "blockade." If I'm right, I believe I can cut off all of Amica's domestic intercontinental trade routes with those two blockades. Who knows how much gold this would cost him per turn. 30-40? Given that he's making 555gpt (not an exaggeration), -30 doesn't seem significant.

The reasons pushing me into the "vendetta against Amica" plan are obvious: without my interference, Amica wins. Full stop. The reasons against the anti-Amica plan are equally obvious: I'm tired of being the only player taking responsibility for keeping this game competitive.

Surprise Attack on Ginger

This is a terrible idea. For starters, it just won't work. Comm has no army. He's in a Theocratic/Vassalage golden age. Even so, he cannot produce enough units fast enough and ship them to the right places to break through the thin jungle choke that Ginger has. So he's depending on me. So his offer is not "let's go to war together;" it's "please cause chaos in Ginger's south so that I can pray for a miracle of making some gains." This just won't work. Superdeath, for his part, just war-peaced Ginger. I say again, I don't know what Superdeath's doing. Oh well. When Amica ships over a couple of rifles and takes Superdeath's entire eastern coast in 1 turn, he'll see his error.

Let's leave aside that there's no way that Comm's plan will work (and I'm reminded of the time he tried to make a move for Amica's islands and was scared off by a pittance of a garrison and threw money at Amica in terror). What do I get out of it? Well, I immediately lose some 25 gold per turn from trade. I lose even more money from unit supply costs. To balance out this economic pain, I could gain...? A city in the south? Ginger's army is gigantic. I have no eyes on his army but look at this city:



Do you see that chariot-thing within the walls? That's the Heroic Epic. I'll leave you to count up how many hammers this city is making, but trust me when I say that it's one-turning a musket or knight every single turn. Can Commodore crack that? No. Can I ship units across the ocean faster than this city can reinforce over land? Also no. So can I keep any gains I make with my navy? You guessed it, boys and girls. Absolutely not.

So in an anti-Ginger alliance, I give Amica even more room to develop into an unstoppable juggernaut while costing myself much blood and treasure in exchange for practically no chance of gain.


Naturally, I told Commodore I would attack Ginger. 

I pride myself on honorable diplo. If I'm about to attack someone and they offer fish-for-fish, for example, I refuse it. If I say I'm going to do something, I try my hardest to do it. This time, my promise is more...aspirational. But I'm still planning to attack Ginger.

Why? Well, remember how he hasn't built the Taj yet? Remember how he has a gigantic standing army? He's already researched Chemistry. I'd bet my shirt that the next stop is Steel. Now, Ginger seems like he's been battered into timidity by neighboring Superdeath and Gav and Comm all at the start (that's a rough neighborhood). So it's completely possible that Ginger has thoroughly given up on this game and he's researching Cannons just so he can sit in his tiny empire surrounded by edible neighbors and wait for the sweet release of death. But, and I have no reason to believe this but intuition, I bet he's planning on getting to Cannons and then pushing out. It's what I'd do. Once he gets Cannons, if he also finds his will, he could shatter Superdeath, Gav, or, to a lesser extent, Commodore. (Lesser because most of Comm's empire is overseas.) He could really start rolling and then I'm left holding back Amica while Ginger finally hits his stride. [Pseudo-edit: You know, now that I type that out, there's no way Ginger has that much optimism, is there? Hmm. Maybe I need to reevaluate what follows.]

On the other hand, if Comm and I can prevent him from getting to Cannons, if we could even start eating bits of him, maybe just maybe Superdeath and Commodore stop being so terrified of their 9 city neighbor and start becoming regional powers, regional powers who have very many attack vectors into Amica, regional powers who might finally show some spirit. (I'm being unfair to Commodore. His game has been magical, and he's done what he could, having been dealt a terrible hand.) In short, if I can contribute to blasting Ginger, then maybe the game simplifies into everybody versus Amica. This game right now is completely, miserably static. Everyone is moving along their defined trajectory and nobody is doing anything to alter that. And since Amica's trajectory is the highest, if something doesn't shift, he'll win, and I'm not confident that I can bring him down.

Typing all that out, I still don't know whether it's better to keep bleeding myself dry just to keep Amica within dog-pile range (when the other players haven't shown any interest in stopping the leader) or whether I should try to savage Ginger in order to generate some dynamism in the game (acknowledging that Ginger is an unappetizing target, whose defeat gives me almost nothing). What an exhausting game.

Lastly, for some reason I can't explain, I was moved to send this to Amica. (Fever dreams is the city on "my" side of our northern jungle choke.)


Who knows what it's effect will be.

[naufragar]

Man, I hate being right:


I called that Amica would put a flexible zone defense force on this tile back in the turn 186 report, 11 turns ago. This land practically defends itself. 

Amica is going for Gunpowder to unlock Privateers (and Protective Muskets) which will make a naval battle an equal one. Boo. Hiss. And he's been reinforcing his islands. (Partially. One city still has a lone axe for a garrison. Curse you, Commodore, for making me flinch from attacking the islands.  )

Speaking of Comm, he sent another diplo offer making sure I was down for his timing. Yes, buddy, I will attack Ginger in 6 turns despite my apparent anti-Amican aggression. It's all a smokescreen because Ginger is watching my fleet moves and I can't exactly snipe cities defended by cannons.  Speaking of hiding my moves from Ginger, my naval moves are only secretive if Ginger can't see me use Comm's cities for transport. Comm still have open borders with Ginger. Does Ginger have as many scouts running around Commodore's lands able to make Comm and my attack completely unsurprising? This seems like a terrible idea. And after all, who's to say that Ginger, having unlocked and built cannons, will summon up the bile to use them in anger rather than sit back and wait for the game to end? Hmm.

[naufragar]

After nothing, suddenly everything. The world's on fire?



We're about to pitch our fleet into the unknown and see what happens. Ginger only has one source of iron, so capturing Monte Cristo could be interesting. Again, I have no idea what's defending Ginger's cities. If I did, this wouldn't be fun. I think this will be a surprise, but Ginger has shown himself to be admirably paranoid.

One notes with admiration Superdeath's 3 Great General births. That is... impressive.

(You can also see Amicalola adopting Mercantilism and set to make further strides. Oh well.)

[naufragar]

For after the game, Commodore, what was this supposed to mean?


Ginger has a city near iron, whale, and clam, but his copper city is nowhere near where Comm or I can attack. And those gold numbers are mysterious.

Oh well. Took the iron-whale-clam city.


Wait. "Iron-whale-clam" from Commodore. "I'm welcome?" Hmm.

Speaking of Iron, that's Ginger's only source, so any knight or cannon builds are stalled. Unfortunately, I can't cut Ginger off from Amica who has a second source of iron (blessings of a random map).


Superdeath is the closest. My ships can't reach in time to be relevant.

Ginger, if you ever read this and want to know why I suddenly attacked, you should know that if I don't keep fighting people, I won't have enough sacrifices and the sun won't rise in the mornings. You wouldn't want the world to be covered in eternal night, would you?

The real reason was, well, "if you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem." If you were pushing through Superdeath and looked poised to rival Amica, I wouldn't have messed with you. If you were going for Taj or otherwise parlaying your artistic advantages into a lead to rival Amica, same thing. Heck, if you were eating Commodore and moving up to my borders, I'd be uneasy but I'd at least acknowledge PB64 is a bipolar world. As it is, we have a monopole (Amica) and with you out of the picture, hopefully Comm and Superdeath can stop fretting about you and start looking askance at Amica.

[naufragar]

Had to play my PB64 and PB90 turns back to back with a headache. And would you have guessed that concentrating at a screen is not a headache cure?

Anyway, here's the troop movement:


I don't really have enough units to be truly scary on the water, but I can try to be annoying. Commodore, in another magical move that I truly cannot explain, burned Ginger's front-line Heroic Epic city.  I have no words. How in the world did that happen? Well, that city was a monster turning out one strong unit per turn. I'm thinking Ginger's dead.  Explains his turn pace.  Went from solidly second place to fighting for his life. I should mention that Commodore took about two minutes after capturing the city to choose to burn it. Not sure what to make of it, but I'm hoping it means he's feeling pretty confident in the north.

I've tried to draw Superdeath's attention to the following...


But there's no easy way to say "your brave boys lie dead, slain by Gingerian cannonballs marked 'made by Amicalola'". I can only hope SD's paying attention, notices, and starts feeling bitter towards Amica. (Although, between you and me, I wouldn't be surprised if Amica knifes Superdeath soon.)

[naufragar]

Bandwidth-heavy post for an eventful turn.

Getting a little tired of all the combat rolls in this pitboss going against me. For example, I left a knight in range of Ginger's troops. He had enough to kill it, but I thought it would at least be a little expensive:


Nope! He easily wins the 32%.

Now compare my combat luck 


Ginger emptied his western city to better defend his capital and I had a galleon with a musket in range.

Naturally, I too had a 32% chance.


Let's see how I did. 



(And those of you with sharp eyes can see the musket didn't even take a hit.) I had to burn the city which was a real tragedy. Look at all that infrastructure! But I couldn't hold it with just the musket.

Ginger also emptied Earthsea to better defend the cap.


I had thought I would've been tempted to keep the Buddhist holy city, but he never got around to shrining it, so it too got burnt.

Now we hunker down. It's very, very possible Ginger can take back Monte Cristo this turn or the next, but if he does, I'm pretty sure Commodore eats him 3 turns after that.



In the wider world, GAVAGAI DECLARED WAR ON GINGER! I believe this cuts his iron. Now, as I just said, Ginger can recapture Monte Cristo to get iron back, but things look desperately bleak for him. Amica moved his army to a spot that looks like it's preparing an alpha strike on a border city. As I've said about a million times, I can only defend in depth. I can't protect both of my borders around the Cursed Inner Sea, so in 4 turns, I'm pretty much guaranteed to lose a city. 

I hopefully keep some spoils from the Ginger war, but there's always the possibility that Ginger kicks me out of Monte Cristo and Commodore takes the whole shebang. That would be annoying but, hey, better Comm than Amica or Ginger. (Have I mentioned Commodore's magical, amazing, stupendous game?)

[naufragar]

I don't claim to understand blockade mechanics, but I think my and Gavagai's hostile culture plus my blockades prevent any gifted iron from reaching Ginger. (How does trade work if only the giver has Astro for ocean trade?)


Assuming Ginger's also penned in up North (safe assumption), I think that he's unable to build cannons or knights. I'm sure I'm missing something or something has gone wrong, but boy would it be nice if those two units were removed from Ginger's arsenal.

Here's a look at Ginger's big, scary army:


Pity that so many of those units will get to heal up but Ginger with his 5 cities and low-food slavery civic won't have much fight left in him if someone grinds him down. We'll see if anyone does. As for me, I've got to start shifting my focus back East where my peace treaty with Amica runs out soon. He's very sharp and very aggressive, so I predict some sort of aggressive action from him. Likely he tries to snipe the cities on either end of my eastern prongs. Can't do anything about that. I've got some units away in Ginger's lands, but it's more that I essentially have two "sides" of my empire, which he can attack from one "side." Cursed inner sea. Will post screenshots of it next turn.

[Magic Science]

I don't claim to understand blockade mechanics, but I think my and Gavagai's hostile culture plus my blockades prevent any gifted iron from reaching Ginger. (How does trade work if only the giver has Astro for ocean trade?)

I don't claim to understand blockade mechanics either, but I think I remember the answer to this question from Pitboss 40.

1. Commerce trade routes can be 1-sided. If only Player A has Astronomy, and the only path for Player A and Player B to trade is over the deep ocean, then Player A gets trade routes from Player B, but Player B does not get trade routes from Player A.
2. HOWEVER, resource trade is different and cannot be 1-sided. If Player A has Astronomy, and the only path for Player A and Player B to trade is over the deep ocean, then both Player A and Player B have full, normal access to their resources when trading with each other.

(I think this makes sense in context of how trade works in the early game with asymmetric scouting and Sailing).

So, I think this means that Amicalola's gifted Iron CAN still reach Ginger over the deep ocean despite your blockade, but I don't know the political geography of this game very well, so...?

Cursed inner sea.

I am glad that you like my name for it. .

[naufragar]

Is someone spreading a rumor that I'm a pacifist bitch?


Why on earth would I give up crucial territory for filthy lucre?

This means that Amica will be able to capture.



We'll see what happens. Equally worrying is his fleet:


He can kill my meager ships, but hopefully we trade hammer efficiently.

Superdeath and Gavagai have peaced out of the Ginger war. I wonder why Superdeath, at least, didn't just stay at war. This freed Ginger up to move against Monte Cristo:


So I've retreated. Pity. I probably should've burned the city when I had the chance, but I think there were some lines where keeping it works. More specifically, I'm a little surprised that Ginger was able to survive when attacked by all his neighbors that had a combine 3 or 4x his power.

That probably seals the game, by the way. Instead of eliminating Ginger, shifting the balance of power in the east, and energizing Superdeath and Commodore, the Ginger war has just reinforced to SD and Commodore that they are helpless and can't do anything more than sit in their corners while Amica runs away with the game. Grim.

Oh well, let's see what the damage is next turn before we despair.