[PB69] Naufragar turns over a new leaf. Randomly.

[superdeath]

but I still bear the scars of PB 45 when Superdeath ran his entire army through a neighbor's lands to raze my undefended cities on the other side of the world.

[naufragar]

but I still bear the scars of PB 45 when Superdeath ran his entire army through a neighbor's lands to raze my undefended cities on the other side of the world.

Interestingly enough, that neighbor was Magic Science. 

Our conquest continues apace. One more city should fall next turn and then the last southern holdout the turn after that:



We'll be at our most vulnerable next turn when our army is more than one turn away from our northern cities. It's scary.

Speaking of scary, let's look at Joker:


The way I understand Civ4 culture rules, I control the sheep tile because there's no Magic city exerting cultural influence on it right now. The moment Yasodharapura gets 3-ring borders it will take control of the tile with the amount of culture points Magic has accumulated in it since he first conquered Joker back in the B.C. era. In other words, once that happens, there's no realistic timeframe in which I regain the tile, so Magic can hit me with cannons from the fog essentially at will after that. Oh well. Still don't think I would've burned the city. It remains to decide whether I put in a skeletal garrison or stuff it as full of siege weapons as possible.

I'm wary of a Magic counterattack, so I keep scouting. Look what I found:


Is that the advance scout of a sneaky little invasion force? No clue, but Camorr is literally undefended. I've kept it empty in concession to Commodore. We've both demilitarized, which has helped both of our games. I had said that I don't think Comm would let his territory be used for a sneak attack, but I reevaluate that below. Meanwhile, notice Pindicator's Sentry Knight not observing the action but instead trying to measure my back for a dagger? He can, and I believe is, currently on Liberalism. His tech rate has been monstrous. Not completely my fault. After all, my loan interest was a measly 200 gold. Really, he's Financial with a huge empire and banks everywhere. Interesting to see what he does next.

But yeah, back to Comm and Pind, I'm feeling decidedly cool towards each of them:


Giving gifts to my enemy is generally a foolproof way of getting me annoyed at you. Possibly they want to maintain their other deals and this is the price of good will with Magic, but all the same. This is a choice and the wrong one. 

[Zed-F]

Hearing a lot of paranoia,

Most of it is probably unjustified.

That means some of it could be justified.

Question is, which is which?

[naufragar]

Hearing a lot of paranoia,

Most of it is probably unjustified.

That means some of it could be justified.

Question is, which is which?

I'm doomed.

Realistically, Commodore is firmly on my side. Pindicator isn't, but he's not going to do anything in the short term. Magic is a real threat, but I don't see him attacking any time soon.

I'm a very bad poker player, but I read somewhere that if your odds of winning are equal or better to the percentage of the pot you'd have to contribute, you should take the bet. I.e. if you've got 1/10 odds to win but it only costs you 1/100 to play the hand, you should play. No idea if that's true. Like I said, I'm bad at poker, but the thinking re: Civ is that these threats are only 1/100 of materializing, but I can still put 1/100 of my resources, attention, etc. to it.

Also, I'm a paranoiac.

[Tarkeel]

Speaking of scary, let's look at Joker:


The way I understand Civ4 culture rules, I control the sheep tile because there's no Magic city exerting cultural influence on it right now. The moment Yasodharapura gets 3-ring borders it will take control of the tile with the amount of culture points Magic has accumulated in it since he first conquered Joker back in the B.C. era. In other words, once that happens, there's no realistic timeframe in which I regain the tile, so Magic can hit me with cannons from the fog essentially at will after that. Oh well. Still don't think I would've burned the city. It remains to decide whether I put in a skeletal garrison or stuff it as full of siege weapons as possible.

That is correct.

I'm a very bad poker player, but I read somewhere that if your odds of winning are equal or better to the percentage of the pot you'd have to contribute, you should take the bet. I.e. if you've got 1/10 odds to win but it only costs you 1/100 to play the hand, you should play. No idea if that's true. Like I said, I'm bad at poker, but the thinking re: Civ is that these threats are only 1/100 of materializing, but I can still put 1/100 of my resources, attention, etc. to it.

If you have unlimited funds, that's a solid strategy. How correct are the odds of winning though?

[naufragar]

If you have unlimited funds, that's a solid strategy. How correct are the odds of winning though?

And that's why I'm a paranoiac.

[naufragar]

Conquest of former Gingeria is almost complete, and no retaliatory strike has yet appeared in the north. Good stuff.


I offered Magic a peace treaty in exchange for Ursula. He'd get to save 8 of his units (because he'll evacuate another 4 with or without peace). Pity to lose the Great General XP. But this way I'd get the city and its meager infrastructure immediately. Eh, it's a fair deal. Let's see what Magic thinks of it.

Remember how Pindicator sent diplo saying he'd join the war at t208? (Actually, maybe I never reported this.) Well, maybe he libs Astro and pillages Magic?


Pind's got himself a monster empire. He has Rifles; I believe he's currently teching Liberalism, although I suspect he takes Econ for the free Merchant->MoM golden age. I could've used his help when he offered it, but my work is done, so he's a bedfellow I can do without.

I'm eager for peace. After conquest and founding 1-pop foodless hovels I can get up to 23 cities. Still fewer than Pindicator, but it's a bit more respectable. Hilariously, I think I switch into Nationalism in 2 turns, not for the draft, just for the maintenance reduction. I'll save more gold than my capital makes from bureaucracy and I plan to get Great Person generation going there so it doesn't need the hammers.

While I'm thinking out loud, the city I want for my Globe Theater draft mule is a former Magic city, so I ran into the "Drafting requires 10% your culture" mechanic. Ha. Learning something new everyday.

Pseudo-edit: I need to mention somewhere that Magic should be thanking me for making his empire more efficient. His time to Military Science is 6 turns. I turned on tech to see how fast I could get there, and I'll need 7 turns. So I've reduced his maintenance, and his tech rate is better than mine. You're welcome, buddy.  All this to say, Magic is absolutely not dead. Still #2 power. #3 tech rate. Going to be first to Military Science (although not to Grenadiers. Good beeline, Comm. ) I don't know how his game develops. It's unpredictable, I think. Hopefully he's sufficiently worried about Pindi-rifles off Galleons.

[Qgqqqqq]

Nationhoods No upkeep (and espionage boost) can be god-tier in the right circumstances.

[naufragar]

Nationhoods No upkeep (and espionage boost) can be god-tier in the right circumstances.

This feels like one of them. I'll post the numbers when I swap next turn, but it's an immediate savings of like 32gpt, more when you factor in 42% inflation. And I intend to keep growing the empire, so that savings will grow. For the same reason I didn't feel comfortable swapping into slavery, I don't think I draft very much. The empire is just so food poor, and it took basically the entire length of the game to get my cities to the size they are now.

But in happier news, our conquest of Gingeria is complete, although Magic made us kill his last few units for it:


Isn't that a much more sensible empire shape? Pity Magic had to vulture my meal and make me conquer this land from him rather than Ginger/Miguelito.  You can see in the power ratio in the bottom left that Magic Science is roughly equal to me in military strength, but now that I've got a chance to consolidate my forces and play defense, I'm feeling fine. There's still the possibility of an attack from a bizarre angle, and Pindicator still has two(!) units scouting my core every turn, but I think I've earned myself some infrastructure builds.

And boy do we need them:


Massive loan payments and newly conquered population will cause the GNP disaster you see, but the cities will come out of revolt soon and next turn my loan expires. Coincidentally, Comm isn't in quite as bad a spot as it looks. He's taken scores of cities from Bing, and that's all good green land. Commodore, way more than Pindicator or me, needs this game to last a very long time, which is why I'm not concerned about him doing me in anytime soon.

But in the horrible news column, Pind was not researching Liberalism. He landed Economics with its Great Merchant this turn, so expect a Mausoleum-boosted Industrial Golden Age shortly. I actually want him to grab Liberalism ASAP. The thought of having to chase him to it, knowing I'd lose but preventing him from grabbing something massive, is just depressing.

Sent another peace treaty offer to Magic. Honest, my man, it's not for me, it's to keep Pindicator off you.

[naufragar]

Magic accepted peace! This means I was able to play a double turn for the first time in forever! Oh man, I anticipate greatly accelerated turn pace now.

We celebrate by scouting Pindicator.


Nice, shiny Rifles. Without Astronomy, I don't think it makes sense for him to attack anyone, so I suspect he sits back and techs. His tech rate is bonkers, anyway. By the way, you might notice I'm making gold while researching at full bore. This is a message: "Settle more cities, dummy." Admittedly, I've got 5 cities on wealth builds, but those have paused their banks. After all, banks are useless when working 100% science slider. 

I'll settle one more city next turn. The massive swing in finances came from swapping into Nationalism and ending my loan payments to Pindicator. Note that while my break even rate is silly, this doesn't translate to quite as impressive a tech lead. After all, Spiral Minaret and the Shrine just give gold. Pind himself has Sankore.

Speaking of Pind, sometimes I get demoralized.


Look at all this that he took essentially for free from Bing after Bing took it from Superdeath. This is the best land on the map. Don't know why its previous occupants weren't winning the game. Pind, as Financial, gets 2food/3gold from each of those coast tiles. And the former tenants heavily cottaged this place, so Pind is also getting heaps and heaps of commerce from that.

Now compare that overview shot, with the shot of my empire:


Notice anything different?  I have to farm plains everywhere for 2food/1commerce. The only green lands are at the coasts. I've cottaged the west. Unfortunately, the east must be farmed & workshopped, because sometime in the centuries long wars, marauders pillaged all the cottages. Wonder why. 

So the prognosis is bleak. Pind is going to maintain a massive GNP lead, but there are still avenues of advancement. Comm and I combined will have a decently long window to crack him. Space is far away. Culture is risky. The thorn in my side is still Magic, but I'm willing to wait and see if a solution to that arises on its own.