Sandover's claim frankly stinks of exactly what a wolf would do in the given situation. Wolves conspiring to a day 1 baner claim sounds like a ridiculous tactic to me, why draw attention to yourself so early? And even after that, it's then 6 times as likely that a wolf would end up on the chopping block than it is the real baner would. So I'd put the odds of Sandover being the false claim at well over 90% - without even having to examine the style of his posting or whatever else fed into Roland's wall of text. I will give credit where it's due though, Roland seems to have most likely backed a winner this time, lets just hope he can keep it up.
However, having said all that, even a < 10% chance of voting off the baner on day 1 is pretty high. And there's always the possibility of a fool-baner - it seems like a ridiculous role to me but that's almost evidence in its favour given the disparity between the rules I'd have picked and the ones we have. So I'd be inclined to leave it to tomorrow. But then who are the other options?
Sareln's suicidal self-vote points directly at villager to me. It reminds me a bit of the story of King Solomon and the disputed baby - no direct analogy but a similar spirit proving your innocence by offering yourself for sacrifice. I can't really see why a wolf would bother to pull such a risky play when one of their number would still be doomed and all Sareln had to do to get out of the limelight was post a bit more.
So I don't really want to put my vote there any more. A random shot at a second wolf is worthwhile, but a likely villager is bad news. Catching a wolf every second day means losing 3 villagers to every 1 wolf, and if you do the math that's a loss for the village. So there's a cost to leaving it another day, and when you combine that with the relative odds that Sandover is the faker here I think he's the better choice.
I'm still nervous though. I've changed my mind 3 times while writing this post. My apologies in advance if I've sealed the deal on a horrible path to failure here...
However, having said all that, even a < 10% chance of voting off the baner on day 1 is pretty high. And there's always the possibility of a fool-baner - it seems like a ridiculous role to me but that's almost evidence in its favour given the disparity between the rules I'd have picked and the ones we have. So I'd be inclined to leave it to tomorrow. But then who are the other options?
Sareln's suicidal self-vote points directly at villager to me. It reminds me a bit of the story of King Solomon and the disputed baby - no direct analogy but a similar spirit proving your innocence by offering yourself for sacrifice. I can't really see why a wolf would bother to pull such a risky play when one of their number would still be doomed and all Sareln had to do to get out of the limelight was post a bit more.
So I don't really want to put my vote there any more. A random shot at a second wolf is worthwhile, but a likely villager is bad news. Catching a wolf every second day means losing 3 villagers to every 1 wolf, and if you do the math that's a loss for the village. So there's a cost to leaving it another day, and when you combine that with the relative odds that Sandover is the faker here I think he's the better choice.
I'm still nervous though. I've changed my mind 3 times while writing this post. My apologies in advance if I've sealed the deal on a horrible path to failure here...
