[no players] CiVI Lurking Part II: Sophomore Slump

[suboptimal]

On a related note:  it seems very clear that Archduke only fell this fast because he was dogpiled.  Give him time to deploy to face a single opponent, give him the ability to use his Niter, and he could have probably made any single opponent grind through his army at minimum, if not pull out an outright stalemate.

Actually, I think there were three major factors at play with Archduke's now-rapid downfall, two of which were his own doing.

- He generally neglected (even mocked, at one point) research infrastructure (campus, theater districts, monuments) in favor of military expansion, which caught up with him in the Turn 120-130 range as everyone around him (even Singaboy) out-tech'd him to more advanced units.  I haven't gone back to look at any of his screenshots for pictures with the city infobox but I suspect he's also facing production deficits vs. his opponents.
- Tunnel vision.  I don't recall him ever making more than a passing comment about Alhambram's military power, posting more than one or two screenshots of the western front or even giving consideration to the fact that an invasion was possible until Alhambram was on his doorstep.  His entire focus was on the east and, as a result, the west was completely unprepared for an invasion. 
- Geography.  If you're the one in the middle of a pangea map you're automatically in a two-front situation and at a strategic disadvantage.

Does he get dogpiled even if he took a defensive stance, maintained tech parity and keep close watch to the west?  Possibly.  However, he also doesn't lose that many cities that quickly and might still have a chance at stalemating one or both fronts in the event it occurred.

[Mardoc]

Actually, I think there were three major factors at play with Archduke's now-rapid downfall, two of which were his own doing.

- He generally neglected (even mocked, at one point) research infrastructure (campus, theater districts, monuments) in favor of military expansion, which caught up with him in the Turn 120-130 range as everyone around him (even Singaboy) out-tech'd him to more advanced units.  I haven't gone back to look at any of his screenshots for pictures with the city infobox but I suspect he's also facing production deficits vs. his opponents.

Well, true, I expected this to do him in eventually, but it definitely wouldn't have been this fast if he weren't dogpiled.  But that's a natural consequence of investing in war: you either win or you're wasting resources and will fall behind.  He didn't win, he drew.  Unless his other wars were a lot more successful, he was doomed sooner or later.

- Tunnel vision.  I don't recall him ever making more than a passing comment about Alhambram's military power, posting more than one or two screenshots of the western front or even giving consideration to the fact that an invasion was possible until Alhambram was on his doorstep.  His entire focus was on the east and, as a result, the west was completely unprepared for an invasion. 
- Geography.  If you're the one in the middle of a pangea map you're automatically in a two-front situation and at a strategic disadvantage.

I don't understand how this is a disagreement with me.  He doesn't die unless he's dogpiled is my position, your position is that he was uniquely vulnerable to a dogpile?

Does he get dogpiled even if he took a defensive stance, maintained tech parity and keep close watch to the west?  Possibly.  However, he also doesn't lose that many cities that quickly and might still have a chance at stalemating one or both fronts in the event it occurred.

I dunno, sometimes threats like that are better treated as 'if that happens, I die, it doesn't matter whether I die fast or slow so I'm not going to worry about it'.  Seriously, if three other civs decide to fight a serious war with you, you should die.

Theoretically he ought to have played in such a way as to prevent the dogpile, but that really comes back to 'he should have won the wars 50 turns ago or not picked the fights', not anything he could have done differently in the past 10 turns.  I can definitely agree that he would be in a stronger position now if he'd either won his wars earlier or invested in tech instead of fighting the wars.  I'm not sure he could have known that his wars would be unsuccessful, though, and if he *had* conquered OleDavy or Singaboy then he would now be one of the top contenders.  Maybe 20 games from now we'll recognize the signs of 'that war was always going to fail' but maybe he was just unlucky.

[Commodore]

In a deeper analysis, I'm pretty sure his fundamental issue was in not working to get into a 2v1 alliance; neither of his neighbors trust him. It's a pity for him, because both Davy and Singaboy always looked at each other as the long term threat, I think either would have naturally preferred to work with him. They still dislike trusting one another. 

I am interested to see how the new triumvirate handles things; looks like the body of Greece being a zone of conflict lets Woden be the pretty girl getting wooed.

[suboptimal]

-Tunnel vision.  I don't recall him ever making more than a passing comment about Alhambram's military power, posting more than one or two screenshots of the western front or even giving consideration to the fact that an invasion was possible until Alhambram was on his doorstep.  His entire focus was on the east and, as a result, the west was completely unprepared for an invasion. 
- Geography.  If you're the one in the middle of a pangea map you're automatically in a two-front situation and at a strategic disadvantage.

I don't understand how this is a disagreement with me.  He doesn't die unless he's dogpiled is my position, your position is that he was uniquely vulnerable to a dogpile?

I think he was.  He was the only player in the game with opponents on opposite ends of their territory due to the geography and the only one that bordered all four opponents, which means an attack could come from any direction across a wide swath of land.  He would not be able to respond effectively to multiple fronts even if he was aware of them unless he completely gave up on offense and focused on defense.  You can produce a stalemate on one front with two opponents (see the first two 2v1 situations in the east) but I think there's just not enough mobility or production capacity to handle that geography even if he were at tech & civic parity with the others.

I dunno, sometimes threats like that are better treated as 'if that happens, I die, it doesn't matter whether I die fast or slow so I'm not going to worry about it'.  Seriously, if three other civs decide to fight a serious war with you, you should die.

Theoretically he ought to have played in such a way as to prevent the dogpile, but that really comes back to 'he should have won the wars 50 turns ago or not picked the fights', not anything he could have done differently in the past 10 turns.  I can definitely agree that he would be in a stronger position now if he'd either won his wars earlier or invested in tech instead of fighting the wars.  I'm not sure he could have known that his wars would be unsuccessful, though, and if he *had* conquered OleDavy or Singaboy then he would now be one of the top contenders.  Maybe 20 games from now we'll recognize the signs of 'that war was always going to fail' but maybe he was just unlucky.

Yes, if you're at war with three civs, you're pretty much toast (or are the subject of a last ditch effort by your opponents to stop your juggernaut).  I also agree that after the 2nd Peloponnesian War was the time to consider an alternative approach.  I think that was also around the time he first got frustrated and it got the better of him (he was talking about being open to concession after that one, IIRC).

[MJW (ya that one)]

In before people attack Archduke for sending $$$ to the one player who he wasn't at war with.

[Kaiser]

I believe the_Archduke's gameplan was a militaristc one from the beginning. Landing in a sandwich position was actually helpful at the beginning as he could pick his targets based on his information.

In my opinion his biggest downfall is that he did not mangage to cripple one of his opponents strong enough to basically never fear them again and thus he overextended in a late effort doing that with Singaboy.

The war for buenos aires against Oleday was wll fought on both sides an in the end stopped due to small mistakes on both sides. I actually do not have any advice what the_Archduke could have made better there to achieve more out of that war, but I believe there might have been potential for going for Schulyer and/or Lafayette to cripple Oledavy. However his position would not have had improved by that a lot, as he would have been still in the middle.

I saw some potential at the Kilimandjaro wars however, especially the first one as the second one was already too late and at the cost of his defenses of his remaining empire.
I believe keeping Frankfurt (as he cannot raze Aachen anyway) and pushing for Aachen during the first campaign would have made a huge difference for him. With Aachen in his pocket he would have had a nice and defensible eastern border city.
From there on he could have either supported Oledavy in exterminating Singaboy, effectively taking away his eastern opponentor to sign peace with Singaboy and join him on his defense against Oledavy.

It might be that the international situation was not giving the_Archduke the time to continue that war, but if I remember correctly, Singaboy was punishing Oledavy hard at Seoul and the nothern border was not that pressured yet.

I assume the main difficulty for watching Alhambram was likely that he never got the habit of watching him closely due to the landscape and the unlikely vector of aggression in the early game. When it finally came, Alhambram ... actually I am going to use a modified quote from the_Archduke himself to describe that

TheArchduke: "Basically [Sullla] Alhambram did not caught me with my pants down. [Sullla] Alhambram caught me with my pants down, my mobile phone on 1% and dying with no connection bar whatsoever and my shoes on a tree. "

@The_Archduke
I want to thank you for the well played and executed game and the efforts you invested. It was a pleasure following your and your opponents reporting through this tense and exciting game so far. Please remember that it always easier to criticize than to decide and that the information disparity between global lurkers and a players view is huge and will automatically result in different decisions.

As we say over here
Hätte, hätte Fahradkette
and
Nachher ist man immer schlauer

I hope you perceive my comments positevly, as they are 100% meant like that and I stand to my offer in your thread to fo through them and analyze opportunities which might have changed your individual outcome of the game.

[srgtb]

I think taking Achen after Frankfurt might have put him in a better position but from looking back over his thread it looks like he had about 10 turns before he needed to defend Myrmidon. About 4-5 turns were needed to move his units there.

[Rowain]

The mainproblem for the archduke was the fact that both neighbours settled directly towards him. That alone forced him into fightmode.

The attack on Buenos Aires was a necessity to prevent oledavy steamrolling the eastern continent.

His capture/razing of Frankfurt was also well in line. As Frankfurt on it's original location was a huge threat.
But his big problems now result from the fact that Oledavy suffered such a defeat at the gates of Seoul that he gave up and signed peace. Had Oledavy's attack been more successful then Archduke could march on against Aachen and really have friendship (for some time) with Oledavy while cleaning up the rest of Singaboy.

With the east (fairly) divided between Oledavy and Archduke we would have a completely different game now

[Ichabod]

I think this game shows just how weak wonders are in Civ 6. Woden got all of them and he has almost nothing to show for it.

[Dark Savant]

I think this game shows just how weak wonders are in Civ 6. Woden got all of them and he has almost nothing to show for it.

It's more than almost nothing, I think, but yeah, if you did that in Civ 1, or Civ 2, or SMAC, or Civ 3, or Civ 4, or Civ 5, you'd be decisively running away with the game if your territory and military are even vaguely decent.