Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Ichabod]

So I was going back through trying to see if I had something to say, but I really don't have anything else to say about my defense. I don't feel as though I've acted suspicious as my reasoning behind my vote for MJW never really changed. If you look through I never say that I'm convinced he is a WW. I do say he is a possible one because how could you tell? Usually a wolf likes to spread around misdirection and suspicions and basically thats what he's done, but of course that how MJW always acts. There is no baseline for MJW. SO like i've said all along he may be a villager he may be a wolf.

Because of this I don't understand Ichabod's reasoning that the reasoning I used to vote for MJW is suspicious and therefore makes me a likely wolf. He says my reasoning shifts but I cannot find where I shift my reasoning. I never say he is a wolf definatively. I only say it is possible or likely that we wouldn't be able to tell even if he was a wolf. The strongest I've gone against MJW was nearer the beginning when he had posted less. He's posted more though since, and I find that while suspicions of him may have lessened, I still feel about 50-50 on his innocence to evil ratio.

As for the agreeing with Cull about post 108, So I reread it and found it to be wolfish. Ichabod, you perceived it differently but how does that make my perception more wolfish? I really don't understand your reasoning.

In fact, from reading the thread, I don't think there's a lot of true suspicions on me at all. Just people voting for a guy who has stirred the put a bit and put himself up as an easy target by talking too much. If anyone had any suspicions of me based in reasoning or by something I said, please bring them forth so I may address them. I cannot guarantee you will believe my reasoning and explanation, but I will feel better for having had them brought up and been able to answer them.

Sadly, I haven't had as much time to go monster hunting, but I have found myself disagreeing with and mostly unable to understand Ichabod's reasoning of why I am a wolf. In fact it's seemed to me that he has been pretty subtle with his attempts to hang me. Really not enough to go on today, but I'll go with my gut. If I were a wolf I'd talk up the suspicions and then help ease the bandwagon along. This is how I've felt Ichabod ha acted. No guarantees, just gut.

Hehe,

Seeing my name in red for the first time is definetely a strange sensation.

But on to what matters:

Lewwyn,

Please, don't get me wrong here. I'm not saying that I'm sure you are a werewolf. And I'm not saying I'm almost sure too. In fact, I'm constantly doubting my own vote and my own reasoning behind it.

I too think my reasons to vote for you are shallow. But I decided to vote for the player who I thought was more suspicious and, at the moment, it is you. Even if it is just a little bit.

Don't think I'm going to make a crusade in this game to try and lynch you. Like I said, I don't have anything (almost anything, but this almost, as I'm seeing, doesn't exist for the most players, so I might be mistaken in my judgement) solid to back it up and I'd happily change my vote if a more suspicios players appears.

That being said, I'm also shocked that the other guys who are voting for you haven't give much reasons to do it. I admit that my own reasoning is weak, but at least I'm putting it here. It's almost like trying to write about why I have a gut feeling. It's not easy to do it, but it is easy for others to misunderstand it or not understand it at all (like happened to you). So I'd like to read more about why other players are voting for you, not just the "it's the 1st day voting style".

I'll try to explain my reasoning for voting for you again. I know you haven't said that MJW was surely a wolf. I just think that you brought forth the possibility of him being one (i.e. that he was more likely to be a wolf than the other players) without anything to back it up, just to make lynching him more compelling. And I didn't like this behaviour.

About post 108, you have all the right to think of it as wolfish. But the way you spoke about in the thread was too exaggerated, in my opinion. Again, it seemed to me like you were accusing MJW without good reasons to do it.

Of course that my case is not strong. In fact, this is probably all there is to it. But I'm giving you (and to all the players too) my reasons why I'm voting for you. It's the best I can do now, not hide information. And I still don't think you made a good explanation on why you were attacking MJW so much.

If you could answer me two things, maybe I can change my vote:

1st. What makes MJW more wolfish than any other player here (let's not enter in the other reasons for lynching MJW, which I'm actually starting to consider valid, especially after Irgy's last post)?

2nd. Why do you think post 108 is wolfish?



About my defense against your accusations. Well, I'm trying as hard to bring information to the thread. Since the only information I have are my own perceptions about what's being posted, It's expected that it won't be easy to understand or won't make any sense from time to time.

Like I said on the top of the post, I'm not trying to discredit you for the rest of the game. I just think that you seem the more suspect player right now and that's why I voted for you. I just don't want to throw my vote around, because I think that's not a good thing to do.

I'll have to read the whole thread on more time later and maybe my mind will clear up a bit. But I have to say that I'm more and more inclined to take my vote away from you. Why? Because at least you are talking and trying to discuss. Even if you are the most suspect player through my eyes, I'm starting to question if it's not more worth to try and make the quiet guys talk.

[novice]

I'd still rather lynch Novice... I don't like the way he has been trying to initiate momentum against people today. I'll discount his initial PB vote with "jokey RP" reasoning as part of the meaningless early random votes. However he was part of the mid-day Lewwyn push for no particular reason, then pointing fingers at me based on metagame and covering with another "jokey RP" post, then switching back to PB with yet another "jokey RP" post.

Hey, I'd like to lynch you too but it seems we're the only ones suspecting each other.

As for the jokey votes I'm playing a serious game but I also want to have fun. I think this game so far has been very light hearted and that adds to my enjoyment. If the wolves win because we villagers were too busy having fun, so be it.

The timing of the end of the day is slightly unfortunate. Many players will be unavailable in the last few hours, so putting last-minute pressure on people doesn't really work.

[Rowain]

Currently our top two lynch targets are the top two posters.

Please people pay attention. With sandovers switch to PB the later has as many votes as Lewwyn.
With Irgy's switch we currently have 7 votes against MJW and 5 against PB and Lewwyn. One of those 3 has been extremly silent besides the fact that he found time to update his FH-thread.

[Lewwyn]

Hehe,

Seeing my name in red for the first time is definetely a strange sensation.

Heh, so true, another reason for me to do it. People don't realize how unsettling it is to be voted until you are actually voted. It feels a bit like being popular but also like sword of Damocles.

These I can answer almost together. With MJW I can't tell what he actually thinks and what he's saying as a lie because BOTH are completely illogical. That immediately makes me a bit suspicious of him, but lets look to post 108:

[quote=MJW (ya that one)] I'll check this thread when I get up in the morning. Here is a list of people who may be wolfs.

Bob. His post, saying that the threat of ferreting out a power-role, is worth giving up talking about things. Villager bob would not say it because it is extermely strange , as other posters have agrued, and bob is better then that. I think wolf bob would say it to hurt the village.

First the curious case of Bobchilingsworth. This is the first I've heard MJW put him out as suspicious, yet already he's number 1. Also I checked his post and I didn't find it very suspicious, he simply comment on how he viewed an action by F&I. And people have said he's not throwing suspicion around like a wolf?

Lewwyn. I think he is being a tad too aggersive if living is his goal in this game. But if he is a wolf he can not get night-killed so he can unleash his feelings. I think confusing a throw-away post by Sarlen with the big OP is very strange. It is hard to explain. Much simpler is that Lewwyn confused his offical PM with an orginal post.

I mentioned surviving as a goal/mindset I have in these games in WW2 lurker thread I believe. So he's definitely read that Lurker thread. The issue here is that I said Sareln had told the Wolves to use email. And he did in WW2 Lurker thread. I pointed that out after MJW accused me of learning about it directly from Sareln in a wolf PM. When he saw I pointed it out, he backed down for a moment but then reignites his theory thats already been proven? I said I had read it from one of Sareln's post in the first place, (and I NEVER said it was i Sareln's OP, only that he had mentioned it). So he's continuing with an already fallacious argument, and, in fact, expanding the wrongness! Basically that I confused it with the big OP is a lie because I never said that and I never confused it with that. And to top it off he uses Occam's Razor, "much simpler" is that I read it in a PM... We have the PMs Sareln sent out! Why would he deviate from those when he's been a stickler for rules? Why would he advise the wolves on their gameplay? As GM he would simply let them figure things out for themselves not tell people how to play. The simplest explanation is that I read it quickly while reading the WW2 Lurker thread, then read the WW3 thread then started this game and remembered, AT SOME POINT that I had read Sareln write that. MJW's exaggeration and continuance of an already proven incorrect argument to be wolfish.

Bob and Lewwyn feel like they are attacking me because Fire&Ice is a werewolf. They want to start a bandwagon against be to save F&I the first day.

F&I has never said someone is a werewolf or he is not a werewolf. It is very natural to say thoses things if you are a villager because you do not know the roles. It is very unatural to say those things if you are a werewolf because you already know what the roles are and you do not like to lie. F&I does not post much ether or defend himself. All he did was a self-vote. I don't think a villager F&I would self-vote. He would get angry and try to defend himself. The only person who self-voted who was on team good was Roland. And Roland, unlike F&I, is very emotional. The peices do not fit if F&I is a villager--this would not be his style. He also refered to me as a villager and wanted to lych me anyway. It is extreme to lych a villager for being bad so a villager F&I would try much harder to jusfiy it.

Where do I start? He's pretty much decided that Bob and I are both wolves, that F&I is a wolf and that because we are drawing attention away from F&I that is further proof we are wolves. What he doing? He's creating stories in his head and then fitting reality to them. Good for a wolf, bad for a villager. Especially if as a wolf he was told by his wolf compatriots to go make stuff up and create huge chaos. WHy would the wolves try to control MJW? They could more simply say: "Go cause as much suspicion as possible, we'll make sure you don't hang." Its like having their own little pitbull. Granted this scenario is much less likely, but I put forward as a possibility.

In his comments about F&I, how does MJW know exactly how F&I would play? he has one day of previous information and even then F&I would have played it differently because he was seer. Also he was killed early, why wouldn't he change up his play this time in order to try not to die so early? Or he has a different role and plays it differently? Too many variable's but again MJW says them as truth drawing more suspicions to F&I. Although this also could be innocent MHW being MJW. I agree with that possibility, as well. The previous section was more wolfish than this one for me.

I'll keep my vote on F&I because I think no-one else on my list will be lyched today. I think no-one is a clear mayor candiate yet so there is no reason to change my vote.

Meh, not as important.

So theres a bit of analysis on the way I see that post. Some of it is wolfish, some of it is fallacious, incomprehensible logic that MJW might normally post. Again my perception is this is more wolfish than not, but I'm still at 50% wolf/villager on MJW. I simply can't be sure either way.

I hope that helps explain it for you Ichabod. I've already taken my vote off you for now, based on lack of traction and I want my vote to mean something. But I will keep you in mind for suspects. Tread lightly? Yes, Tread lightly says the Carpenter stroking the gallows.

[zakalwe]

The biggest problem with MJW is that everyone wants to lynch him.

I think I see what you're saying, but isn't this also an indicator that he could be innocent? On the other hand, if MJW is innocent, then I'd expect the wolves to favor other lynch candidates, since MJW has made a pretty convincing case that he has no power role.

I think the most suspicious thing MJW has done today is to start discussing seer/fool mechanics out of the blue, back in post #193. He brought it up as if replying to some on-going discussion, while he was in fact the first to raise the topic. To me, that seems a little like a wolf fishing for seers, but it's not much to go on.

If MJW is a wolf, then I'd expect several wolves to be looking for cover by voting for him already, since he would seem like a pretty lost cause. In that sense, he doesn't really need any more votes; it is more interesting to watch what happens if the vote remains somewhat close.

Anyway, I'm running out of on-line time so I'll have to cast my final vote for the day soon. My vote for Lewwyn is still of the "arbitrary" kind. Like Ichabod, I don't have any solid evidence to bring to the table, and to be honest I don't really have a gut feeling to back it up either. So I'd like to find a slightly more probable wolf if possible.

Much as it pains me, the best candidate I can see is Pocketbeetle. Lynching quiet people seems like a good fallback strategy when you don't have anything else to go on, and he really has been uncharacteristically quiet. Pocketbeetle, if you are innocent and end up once more getting lynched on day 1, you should know I will really feel bad about it.

(fake edit: cross-posted with Rowain)

[zakalwe]

(fake edit: cross-posted with Rowain)

"real" edit: and Lewwyn

[pocketbeetle]

Every time a wolf wants to vote for someone without standing out from the crowd, there he is, MJW. Regardless of anything he ever posts, simply his continued existence in the game is disruptive purely because of his unpopularity.

I really like Irgy's post, and you're actually coming close to convincing me to switch.
But Novice still looks dodgy to me (if you know what I mean).

Do I think he's a wolf? I have no idea. He's said he's not a village power-role, so assuming he wouldn't fake role-claim as a wolf the odds are already improved to 5/18 rather than the base 5/23 (why does everyone keep saying 22?).

Without looking at the exact post you're refering to, the likely answer to this question is that the person saying it is making a statement that they're a villager and not a wolf.
ie that there's still 5 wolves, but because this person knows that they're a villager there's therefore a 5/(23-1) chance of their vote catching a wolf.

And @ Zakalwe, damn straight you should.

[pocketbeetle]

I mentioned surviving as a goal/mindset I have in these games in WW2 lurker thread I believe. So he's definitely read that Lurker thread. The issue here is that I said Sareln had told the Wolves to use email. And he did in WW2 Lurker thread. I pointed that out after MJW accused me of learning about it directly from Sareln in a wolf PM. When he saw I pointed it out, he backed down for a moment but then reignites his theory thats already been proven? I said I had read it from one of Sareln's post in the first place, (and I NEVER said it was i Sareln's OP, only that he had mentioned it). So he's continuing with an already fallacious argument, and, in fact, expanding the wrongness! Basically that I confused it with the big OP is a lie because I never said that and I never confused it with that. And to top it off he uses Occam's Razor, "much simpler" is that I read it in a PM... We have the PMs Sareln sent out! Why would he deviate from those when he's been a stickler for rules? Why would he advise the wolves on their gameplay? As GM he would simply let them figure things out for themselves not tell people how to play. The simplest explanation is that I read it quickly while reading the WW2 Lurker thread, then read the WW3 thread then started this game and remembered, AT SOME POINT that I had read Sareln write that. MJW's exaggeration and continuance of an already proven incorrect argument to be wolfish.

Dear Lord, it's contagious.

[Selrahc]

Is it possible that Selrahc is a wolf again and his request is aimed at people like you to protect some of his young packmates? Like for example Pocketbeetle who was killed early in Game1? or for example Jkaen?

You were a wolf last game. You know I was making the same sort of arguments about our day 1 and day 2 kills then.

This isn't something I've suddenly come up with out of the blue.

I had a bad feeling about selrahc's request too, although my suspicion was more along the lines of: Selrahc knows we aren't voting off a new player today anyway, so who's that post aimed at? The wolves. Could be an attempt to subtly distance himself from them.

I think this is an understandable position to take. But can you think of a different way I could have gotten the message out there to the wolves? Perhaps I should have made the post in the sign up thread so that lurkers could weigh in, and it wasn't getting swept up in the general thread traffic.

[Serdoa]

I understand why many players would rather like to lynch those which are silent, but I don't thinks this makes a good argument for not lynching those which are talkative. Irgy gave good reasons why to lynch MJW for example and I can agree with them.

Though, my actual suspects would be Novice and Rowain. Both are trying to get bandwagons going and that is something I don't like on Day 1. Sure you can and should present your reasoning why you would lynch someone, but if you actively try - on Day 1 - to sway votes I think you either have to be

- a werewolf trying to protect one of yours
- a villager who is (too) confident in his ability to identify wolves

I won't change my vote though but instead I will wait and see what happens and draw conclusions from there.