Dave's Not Throwing Away His Shot

[oledavy]

so far, Your beginnings in all wars were all right but eventually You were thwarted by superior economy of opponents (and GG in one case). I'd say this is strong suggestion that improving economy is order of the day...
Would it be enough to keep pace with Hansas and Woden? I don't know... But Singaboy lost a major city, so that brings him down as well. I'd say Woden is most threatening ATM - and You don't want to look like an easy conquest for someone trying to change _his_ balance vs China

Yeah, avoiding being conquering by Archduke in our next war is definitely a top priority. I do wonder occasionally if Woden may try to send a cross continental strike against me, but given his neighbor and expansion opportunities closer to home, I consider it pretty unlikely. 

Turn 89



Mercenaries in!

Time for a new government: 



Strategos is going to stay in until I get El Cid around t203 or so. Next swap will be into Serfdom, but that won't be until I get a bunch of workers pre-built. I think I will detour briefly to Recorded History, get out of Serfdom and temporarily swap Conscription for Limes, and use the opportunity to bang out walls in Hamilton and Lafayette. At that point, I'll begin the long push to Exploration for Merchant Republic, at which point I'll swap governments and into Professional Army to get all my upgrades in.

Offered white peace to Singaboy. We'll see what he says: 



Here is the city of Dorian: 



My empire at the end of the turn: 



Next turn, two new cities, the next, my long-awaited GS 

[yuris125]

Strategos is going to stay in until I get El Cid around t203 or so.

Is T203 correct or did you mean 103?

[Molach]

Really enjoying the frequent and well-written and superbly illustrated turn reports.

Another perspective on the Singaboy war (why he threw so much against you)
Current thoughts are:
* You attacked first, leading to all 'this'. Therefore massive attack back.
* Forces were deployed to defend Seoul, no way to get 'em back to defend core cities in time.
But a new one:
* He needs peace with you so he can fight a 1-on-1 war with Archduke. Therefore throwing everything at you for a 10-turn peace now, then go wreck the Duke with all he got + everything coming off the assembly line (Hansas) next 35 turns.

Is there a 10-turn peace thing in this game? Too much Civ IV, too little this game....

[oledavy]

Turn 90

Played a very quick turn before I left today. Singaboy accepted peace! Seems I'm not the one he has slated for destruction. Moreover, he's moving forces south instead of towards Hattusa, so I don't have to worry about them for now. I can't tell if he's trying to drag Archduke down or trying to find a way to win - perhaps some combination. I don't think he has much of a chance at this point, but there's a lot of game yet and he may find a way to have a respectable finish or even win depending on what happens abroad. Crazier things have certainly happened. He did lay down a Hansa at Seoul this last turn, implying he's thinking in the long term. 

The most important thing, however, is that he's not sending military my way, and I can continue building. 

I seriously can't decide if I want to DoF him or not. On the one hand, it would free him up to continue to attack Archduke. On the other hand, he may accept his losses there, peace out as soon as he can, then turn around and try to take Hattusa as a way to get back into the game. I want to prevent him from doing that, as the city is worth 4 science to me at the moment, and is critical for my military. Moreover, the extra science it throws on campuses may be one of the best ways I have to keep pace with Woden. However, if I grab a DoF with him so that he's out of sync with Archduke's one ending, I can effectively forestall a dogpile.

Food for thought. 

Anyway, this was a big turn: 



7 cities baby!   Most in the game, although I doubt I will hold onto that for too long. 

Got the Eureka for Sailing, and threw down an acropolis in each city on a desert hill to lock in the cost. The finished trader from Lafayette moved to Uptown to start a TR to Hamilton next turn. 

I want to highlight how fast both of these cities will get off the ground. They both have a FP Wheat in the first ring, a 4/1/0 tile with OLORAM. They'll both grow in 4. Then, they both have at least one 1/3 tile in their first ring for the second pop to work. 

So, when you throw in a TR and 2 pop total, Uptown and New York are making 9/8/2 and 9/9/2 each 

All three of these northern cities are banging out monuments first, then continuing to build infrastructure/workers. The best way for me to keep pace with Woden in tech is by growing as much as possible as fast as possible, so all my cities on freshwater are a major advantage in that regard. Next step, getting granaries in all of them. 

I'm feeling more optimistic about my ability to keep pace with Woden in tech, especially when you factor in my ability to land difficult Eurekas like Education, Gunpowder, or Military Engineering. Culture is more of a long-term problem, but that's where Acropolises come in. 



4 Decent city-sites left to settle, for 11 total. There are additionally one or two crappy locations I could back fill even after that point, but that probably aren't really worth it.

[oledavy]

Strategos is going to stay in until I get El Cid around t203 or so.

Is T203 correct or did you mean 103?

Yes, thank you for catching that. 

Really enjoying the frequent and well-written and superbly illustrated turn reports.

Another perspective on the Singaboy war (why he threw so much against you)
Current thoughts are:
* You attacked first, leading to all 'this'. Therefore massive attack back.
* Forces were deployed to defend Seoul, no way to get 'em back to defend core cities in time.
But a new one:
* He needs peace with you so he can fight a 1-on-1 war with Archduke. Therefore throwing everything at you for a 10-turn peace now, then go wreck the Duke with all he got + everything coming off the assembly line (Hansas) next 35 turns.

Is there a 10-turn peace thing in this game? Too much Civ IV, too little this game....

Thank you!

I've come around to thinking your perspective is more or less correct. My plan backfired pretty spectacularly in that regard - unless my plan all around was to lure his forces away from the primary threat so my regional rival would be out of the running 

But no, it makes sense. In response to Mardoc's earlier post, while I'm sure Singaboy showed in his thread how he was completely surprised by Archduke's attack on Frankfurt, I didn't get to see that. All I could see from my limited vantage point a few turns ago was him losing one of his core cities in a two-turn blitz while he was deploying the majority of his military to fight me for Seoul. I found it hard to believe at the time that he didn't see the possibility of Archduke attacking him, but with the benefit of hindsight, that seems more and more likely to have been the case. Either that or he just completely underestimated how strong GG's are. 

I'm still really curious how Archduke got the drop on him so completely, but then again, I'm completely guilty of getting hyper-focused in my sandbox and not thinking about the larger game at times. It is what it is at the end of the day, and it seems he's not collapsing. I don't think Archduke is building military either, or not much if he is. His military size has remained fairly static, and he recently finished a CH. Seems he was just using leftover units too. 

10 turns of enforced peace after a war dec is correct. 

From a very selfish standpoint, I hope he is going to make Archduke suffer with every cog he has left. I know I probably would, the burning of Frankfurt was a really brutal move. Archduke may come to regret that, since it effectively put Singaboy out of the running. We'll see what he's able to do. I would probably start with trying to take or burn Dorian in retribution. 

Actually, if Singaboy is going all out with military, I think he'll actually fare okay against Archduke. He should have crossbows very soon, and has the Preslav bonus - that should be enough to overcome even a GG army if Archduke is not continuing to build units. If Singaboy engages him in a revenge war and drains his resources, then it would make an invasion by me on t105 that much easier...

[oledavy]

Turn 91

Well, that's just a tiny bit frustrating 



Oh well, hopefully we'll get a turn in and I get him before I go on vacation so I can answer the burning question of which Eurekas I'll get. 

There are 4 he's eligible to give me: Military Tactics, Military Engineering, Shipbuilding, and Castles. 

I would prefer the last 3 of those. Military Engineering and Shipbuilding I would never get normally. Castles I would get eventually, but I don't ever anticipate researching Military Tactics and needing to build Pikemen or Huey Tocatil 

The only way he can really screw me is if he does not grant me the Eureka for Military Engineering. I'm counting on that one. Thankfully, the odds of that are on the low end. Most importantly, he'll get me the all important Eureka for Education - one that will be exceedingly difficult for anyone else to get. 

I'll tally up how many science he ends up saving me when I actually activate him. 

So far, the only Eurekas/Inspirations I've missed have been Iron Working/Drama and Poetry.



2 Trade Routes down, 2 to go. Thankfully, the road from Uptown cuts next to Hong Kong. Soon, all my cities will be connected to Hamilton by classical roads. 



Otherwise, another quiet turn. I'm finally about to repair the pasture, then the builder will go down to Schuyler to chop out an Armory and Encampment Project. You'll note I've decided to make Hong Kong's third district an Entertainment Complex. It just makes sense for it to be the city with it, considering it will always have a high pop due to its abundance of farmland. The regional bonus from the tier II and tier III buildings will eventually stretch to 6 of my cities. 

I plan on building 1 Industrial Zone and 1 Entertainment Complex. Each will cover 6 of my 7 core cities (Schuyler misses out on amenities, Uptown on factory hammers). With those two exceptions, my cities are going to prioritize Campuses, Acropolises, Commercial Hubs, and Encampments. Maybe a harbor or two eventually.That's a ways down the road at this point though.

[oledavy]

I started looking at renaissance and beyond Eurekas and Inspirations last night to start getting an idea of what I need to prioritize long-term. The most important thing? A Great Merchant. 

The Inspiration for Mercantilism is popping a GM. The Inspiration for Enlightenment is popping 3 great people total. Once I land my GS and El Cid, I'll have popped 2. This means I should definitely try to make a GM my third. 

I'm finishing my second Commercial Hub in the coming turns. I'll try to slot a market into both of them at some point over the next 20 turns as well (two markets is also an inspiration for something). Between those 4 GP per turn, and a potential Commercial District Project or two, I think I can definitely grab the second GM. 

I'm beginning to see competing for GP's as one of the best ways I can try to keep Woden under control from afar. Oracle is helping him a lot there though...

Finally, two interesting inspirations are entering into an alliance with another player and declaring war with a Causus Belli.

Declaring war with a Causus Belli actually reduces war weariness, if I recall correctly, so it might not be entirely terrible to go through the denounce, wait five turns, then declare process at some point if I have an opponent where the coming attack is obvious. Idk, I need to look more deeply into the mechanics...if they were documented at all. 

I don't know what the effects of entering into an alliance with another player would be. That also merits further examination.

[Kaiser]

Entering an alliance has the following effects for 30 turns as far as I could see:
- shared sight
- Open Borders
- NAP
- potential for search agreements (these are maybe already possible with a friendship in place)
- Funnily I am quite sure that you do not automatically declare war on somebody if another member of your alliance does
- an alliance needs a friendship in place to be established

[srgtb]

Research agreements require the Scientific Theory tech and allow you to jointly gain the Eureka boost for a tech.

Defensive pacts cause both civs to automatically declare war if one is attacked. It requires the Mobilization civic which is really late in the civics tree.

[oledavy]

Turn 92

Thank you both for the info, I really appreciate it!

Maybe I can find a stable partner to work with to that end later in the game. Alhambram seems the most promising. I would love to work out a lasting partnership with one of my neighbors. Unfortunately, as long as I remain the biggest eastern threat to win, they're probably more likely to work together against me. 

Or maybe not, now that Archduke has so effectively ruined Singaboy's game. It all comes down to a simple calculation. If Singaboy thinks he can win, then he will peace out with Archduke, bury the hatchet, and press forward with expanding east and likely seeking to conquer Hattusa at some point - a move that would put him in conflict with me. If he thinks he has no chance to win this game, then he will likely just attack Archduke until the end of time. I hope for the latter, but can't rule out the former. He just finished walls in Aachen. 



His position is looking significantly better than it was a short time ago. He's still in a lot of trouble long-term, however, unless he can boost his science and culture. 

Archduke and I will probably never be partners this game. Schuyler is too close for him to allow it, and it seems he is determined to fight again given his pursuit of another GG. I can only imagine I am the target. Attacking Singaboy would open himself up to a devastating flanking attack on Buenos Aires and his capital. Seriously, why can't Woden have someone like Archduke as a neighbor?

On that note, their militaries in the west are now both approaching 500. I have to seriously consider the possibility that Woden may try to send an army east to fight me at some point, as I am definitely his primary rival to win the game. Still, just as distance made an attack on him inadvisable, it will do the same for me for the time being. I likely don't have to seriously worry about his military until muskets. In the interim, I am sending a couple horsemen west to scout the terrain. 

So, Operation El Cid, teased a couple times in the last few days. 

I finally worked out all the math today. The objective: beat Archduke to El Cid and get him for myself. 

4-move 50 ranged strength crossbowmen sound like the stuff of nightmares, but with any luck I won't have to face them. 

I was considering building an armory and then a GG project after the barracks in Schuyler, but decided that would be cutting it way too close. Archduke finishes El Cid on 109 naturally, and going in that order would get me him on 107. The new plan? Chopping double GG projects out of Schuyler. I should cross the mark on t101, 8 turns before Archduke. There will be some luck needed to pull this off. Once Archduke see's that I've slotted in Strategos, he'll know he has potential competition. I only give myself about 50/50 odds on him not noticing it in time. If he does notice it, he'll likely queue up a GG project of his own. Hopefully, he notices it too late for it to finish before 101, or he doesn't account for the possibility of me chopping out two of them.

If he does beat me, then we prepare for war. The the big forest chop doesn't come in until t101, so I can still slot it into an Armory or something else if I miss out. 

Either way, over these next dozen turns or so, I'm going to start slipping into war mode - if it looks like indeed Archduke is spoiling for another fight. 

Anyway, onto the big news of the turn: 



Finally fulfilled that pregame plan. I find out what he gets me next turn. Here's what he got me this turn: 



I'll probably be the only one to get the Education Eureka this game, unless people want to delay researching it by a ton 

And let's look what was behind Door #1: 



Yeah, they look pretty bad for that 240 cost. 



My science and culture has stabilized relative to Woden over the last few turns. He's 3 techs ahead, but one is Astrology, and I am 1 turn away each from finishing Machinery, Stirrups, and Military Engineering now. I think I can stabilize myself in a position just a little bit behind him for the time being. 

Of course, the long-term problem I elaborated on early in my thread is still there. I need to be strong enough to overpower both my neighbors, he only needs to be strong enough to overpower 1. My neighbors will likely continue dogpiling me until I am out of contention or can just kill them. I'm really hopeful I can count of Singaboy to help me break out of this conundrum, but am not counting on it.