(January 19th, 2016, 09:49)zakalwe Wrote: We can pass with the understanding that we will be guessing Hood later if we only get a clue for two words.
We can, yes. That puts DaveV in a very tight spot if it's not, though. It's hard to make a 3-clue, even with all eight words to play with. With only three arbitrary words, no degrees of freedom? I think if they were straightforward enough to make a 3-clue out of, he'd have already done it.
So there's four possibilities:
- Hood is the last Sorceress word, we guess it now, everything's happy
- Hood is the last Sorceress word, we don't guess it now but can guess it next turn, should still work out if we can get a 2-clue right.
- Hood is not our word, we guess it now, situation gets worse but probably not by much. As long as it's not black, we go to either tied or still ahead with one less gray decoy. And we have next turn's +1 to guess Ruler or maybe have an insight on a better choice.
- Hood is not our word, we don't guess it now...Dave's got to choose between a vague 3-clue that we probably can't guess and a more precise 1 or 2 clue that still leads us to guess Hood and suffer the consequences. And we don't have another shot at Sorceress.
It seems to me that if we're right, it doesn't matter much if we guess now or later. If we're wrong...we give DaveV a chance to warn us away at the cost of forward progress. As long as it's not the assassin, giving up a turn seems like the more expensive option. And if it is the assassin, then giving up a turn this close to the end probably makes us lose anyway.
