Dave's Not Throwing Away His Shot

[Molach]

Are there any 'useless' end-of-a-line civic coming up? Leaving such a civic with 1 turn left could be tactically useful. If you get invaded/suspect invasion, you research the civic then swap into full-war mode next turn. Including that mercenary civic. 

Cheaper than paying upkeep for a modern army. Obviously

[srgtb]

Missing a 75% shot you really needed to hit? Same feeling we get with xcom.

The simplifier in me wants to say (diff+5)*1,5.

Yeah, the unsimplified formula just makes sense of the constants in the game's XML file. Upgrade base cost = 10, upgrade production percentage = 75, gold purchase modifier = 2.

The minimum upgrade cost was changed from 30 to 15 in the second patch but nothing in the base game can be upgraded for less than 30 that I've seen.

[oledavy]

Their formula for upgrades is very close. Round to the nearest 10 (up if the last digit is 5 so 245 would become 250).

Based on the XML files I believe the actual formula used is ((new production - old production) * 2 + 10) * 0.75. Round to the nearest 10.
The result is the same but this formula uses the exact constants from the XML file.

Sullla upgraded a legion (110) to a musket (240) for 100g with the Professional Army policy. So legion -> musket is 200g.
He also upgraded a chariot (65) to a knight (180) for 90g with that policy. So chariot -> knight is 180g.
Upgrading a catapult (120) to a bombard (280) costs 250g without the policy.

((archer 50 - slinger 35) * 2 + 10) * 0.75 = 30
((knight 180 - chariot 65) * 2 + 10) * 0.75 = 180
((musket 240 - sword 90) * 2 + 10) * 0.75 = 232.5 => 230
((musket 240 - legion 110) * 2 + 10) * 0.75 = 202.5 => 200
((bombard 280 - catapult 120) * 2 + 10) * 0.75 = 247.5 => 250

Thanks for this! I'm going to use this as my guide from here on out!

Missing a 75% shot you really needed to hit? Same feeling we get with xcom.

The simplifier in me wants to say (diff+5)*1,5.

Missing a 75% shot you really needed to hit? Same feeling we get with xcom.

Except in XCOM that's the feeling when you miss a 95% shot. 75% is **always** a miss! You're more likely to hit a 30% than a 75%

I've been debating recently if I want to start another XCOM 2 plathrough. A highest difficulty iron man run still eludes me, and I'm vaguely interested in trying out the X2's long war. On the other hand, Stellaris is consuming most of my playtime lately, and if I try to start an X2 campaign, I'm realistically going to sit in front of my computer for a few hours trying to get the perfect Gatecrasher before actually starting it 

I wish there was a way to jump straight to XCom 2's mid game. During the early game, a single bad RNG result can kill a campaign, and during the late game it becomes facerollingly easy, but that mid game sweet spot is amazing.

Are there any 'useless' end-of-a-line civic coming up? Leaving such a civic with 1 turn left could be tactically useful. If you get invaded/suspect invasion, you research the civic then swap into full-war mode next turn. Including that mercenary civic. 

Cheaper than paying upkeep for a modern army. Obviously

There's a good chance I'm going to use Recorded History to this end. I'll post more details in my grand strategy and turn reports tonight. Your counsel is wise, the trick is just that I need to start the process for unit upgrading/wall completing 2 turns in advance, which leaves little room for error. 

Just saw the Campus location in Hattusa. That's really psinful to watch. There are like so many better places!

You're telling me. I'm also desperately waiting for them to finish their walls/build more units so I can feel better about their safety. They took some pretty heavy losses in the Great War against Singaboy.

[oledavy]

Turn 93 SitRep - Looking to the Future

So, we left things on a pretty sour note Wednesday. I missed a 75% shot I was counting on to shore up my military position and keep me competitive in beakers with Woden. What made it worse was that I realized soon after I could have turned it into a 100% shot if I had had more presence of mind about 10 turns previously. 

Chalk it up as one of my big mechanical errors this game, the other being pursuing machinery instead of apprenticeship when I didn't have the gold to upgrade - missing out on a bunch of hammers in the interim. 

Vacation was nice. I had a lot of time driving to mull over issues from this game. I also read The Martian, and am feeling weirdly inspired by it. If Mark Watney can survive on Mars, I can figure out a way to win a game of Civ. 

I've briefly discussed many of these issues before, so, some of this will be a review for my loyal readers. Over the last ~40 turns, I've seen myself go from having a lock on a 1st place finish to being more likely than not to lose. Don't get me wrong, I still think my position is strong, probably second best in the game. But I'm facing a veritable mountain of challenges to overcome if I want to win, whereas Woden's path seems relatively clear by comparison. Woden had a similar-strength start to me, from what I can infer, but one that was dramatically enhanced by having two cultural city-states nearby. We both did a good job leveraging the early game aspects of our kits into strong t50 positions, with the critical difference being in the responses of our neighbors to our respective openings. 

My neighbors acted quickly and decisively to shut me down, and compelled me to fight a war that weakened my strategic position, slowed my expansion, and forced me to spend tons of cogs into military. I would be in a lot worse shape were it not for Thermopylae. Meanwhile, Alhambram seemed all but set to attack Woden and pull a similar move, but either never intended to do so or changed his mind at last minute, and signed an NAP extension. Now, I once again find myself preparing for war with my neighbor to the southwest while Woden gets to expand and build in peace. 

Despite all this, there may be a way to weasel my way into a better position my taking advantage of my biggest weakness, my highly aggressive neighbors. 

So here's the plan going forward: 

1. I'm not going to attack Woden
I still have a little bit of scouting to do to ascertain his distance, but it seems very clear at this point Woden is extremely far to the northwest with mountain chokepoints in between. Launching an invasion at him will be like launching an invasion through space at sublight speeds. What's worse, it seems very likely he will be alerted to my invasion before I get there. An attack on him is risky at best until I get enough techs to move my army quickly and safely across the north sea. Finally, sending my military far afield while I still have dangerous opponents at home is asking for trouble. Most likely scenario: my out of date military arrives on Woden's doorstep only to get crushed while I'm overrun by Archduke. 

Moreover, trying to get to Woden is playing to lose. I need to make Woden feel like he needs to come to me. The best way to catch up to him will be to become the runaway on my side of the Pangaea, and to that end, I need to kill a neighbor and absorb their land while keeping up in tech/civics

2. I'm going to attempt to invade and absorb Archduke
Archduke is quickly becoming the Montezuma of this game, always on the offensive. I respect it. His military propensity and our unstable border means that we're never going to have a sustainable peace. Singaboy and I only have city-states to fight over by comparison, and are not existential threats to one another in the same way. Despite the GS setback, I think I'm quickly approaching a point where I can use my tech lead to defeat Archduke with superior units, namely, musketmen. That, combined with my superior production base, and hopefully El Cid, means I might finally be able to overcome him. Buenos Aires is terribly vulnerable to me, and Mykenes is only a short jaunt away. Taking both of those cities would break the back of his empire and leave the rest as mop up, and I can fork those two from Schuyler. However, if I am to go all out military, I need to make gains or it just worsens my position relative to Woden. If I don't believe I can make substantial gains, it's better to expand and build infrastructure. I think the time is fast approaching where I can finally take down Archduke, however, regardless if he gets the GG. Singaboy has served as a counterbalance to date, preventing either me or Archduke from running away with things. My plan to get Petra and get in a position where I can 2v1 was completely destroyed by their joint attack. However, Archduke has done the heavy lifting for me to remove Singaboy from the equation and make him his game-long enemy...

3. I'm going to cultivate Singaboy as an ally/bystander
As of t94, Singaboy and Archduke are at peace. This does mean there is potential for conflict between me and Singaboy over Hattusa, but only if I rise to the challenge. Losing Hattusa would suck, but I realistically only need it alive for ~10 more turns to uprgade a knight. After that....I mean, losing the 4 science per turn would suck a lot, but facing another 2v1 would suck more. I suspect Singaboy is currently rushing to resettle the location southeast of Frankfurt and his burned city to the southwest, and will be taking his military to Hattusa. He wants to get back into the game, and picking a fight with me is not the way to do it. He would likely jump if I offered a DoF. It would gurantee him 30 turns of peaceful expansion. The key thing right now, is to withhold it long enough to maximize my benefit from Hattusa and make him believe he does not have free reign over there, but grant it before he can conclude his chances are better served by joining in for a round 2 dogpile on me. 

He would likely love the enforced peace with both of us as a chance to expand in the east and try to get back into the game. I'll have to check if he takes a DoF with Archduke. But at any rate, this all means one of two things. 

1. Singaboy is completely removed from the equation, in which case I believe I can overcome Archduke in a 1v1 if I am willing to not fight for Hattusa. 
2. Singaboy will actively join me in a war with Archduke to reclaim his lost territory (Dorium).

Either way, he can be cultivated as an ally or as a bystander, and that's what I need. If I overcome Archduke and Singaboy sits by and expands then it won't matter how much Singaboy expanded during that time, as I will have a bunch of developed cities under my control and will be able to defeat him at a later date if I want. I think it's more likely, however, that he joins in the fun. He's got to be aching to avenge the burning of Frankfurt, and even if he's willing to table that for now, I believe his desire to exact revenge will win out in the end. 

4. I'm going to prop up Alhambram/Compete Indirectly with Woden for Wonders/GP
It feels right now like the best way to fight Woden is through proxies. To that end, I'm going to try and make sure he doesn't get his pick of the litter on wonders/great people. Most critically, however, I'm going to try and make sure Alhambram feels supported and is strong enough to serve as a possible threat. That DoF won't last forever, and Alhambram's military is awesome at the moment. He may have missed his best chance to fight Woden, but that doesn't mean he won't ever try to slow him down. I want to encourage him to do that as best as I can. I am strongly considering offering him an alliance when I get Civil Service. 

This is a delicate balancing act, however. He's going for a religious victory, from all signs. Signing a DoF removes my ability to kill his missionaries and forestall his win, but if he doesn't do anything to stop Woden from running away, then I lose just the same. I will try to walk this tightrope as best as I can. On the plus side, Woden has as much motivation to stop a religious win as I do, and with his own religion, has tools to remove Alhambram's religion that I don't


In sum, I'm going to try to use the biggest weakness of my start (having two neighbors who can combine against me), by trying to cultivate one as an ally against the other and using the spoils to improve my position. While the 3 player structure and relative player skill is what led to the Great War against me, it means I have options Woden doesn't have. He and Alhambram can never be sustainable long-term partners, but me and Singaboy might. We'll give it a whirl and see how it goes!

[oledavy]

Turn 94

I already spoiled a few of the biggest events of this turn in my previous post. 

The biggest news is of course that Singaboy and Archduke made peace. 



I already speculated on this briefly. While it isn't ideal for me, I don't think this means they are burying the hatchet. Singaboy has a strong military, and walls around Aachen, so he probably wasn't intimidated into peace. More likely, Archduke achieved his war aims, offered white peace, and Singaboy, seeing an opportunity to go into EXPANSION MODE, decided to take it. His military is now free to go take Hattusa, which I cannot easily prevent. Most distressing is the possibillity that he might join in on a dogpile on me, but I believe this to be unlikely. 

I'm about to move onto the next generation of military tech, so his military, while large, won't be terribly effective against Crossbows, Knights and base strength 38 cities. 

Woden showed up with a horseman in the west. 



I believe this is likely just a scout, as there are apparently no other units in the vicinity. There is a slight chance he's sending more units north along the coast though, which I will be watching for. I do have archers in both Hong Kong and Lafayette, however, so I'm relatively safe against an opportunistic raid. 

This screenshot was taken after I moved, and I continued moving west. If he keeps moving in my direction, I face the decision next turn of whether to keep moving west and find him, or follow his horseman and ensure his continued good behavior. If I don't shadow him, he could pillage the pasture for 25 culture, take one archer bolt, then run off. Not much of a dent to me long term, but annoying, and it gives him culture. Following him with a horseman would ensure he dies if he does this. I can also sit the archer on the tile to force him to attack if he wants to make it happen and deny him the free raid. At any rate, this will be something I consider in the turns to come. 

In related news, there are two Greek horsemen around Schuyler! I think Archduke is scouting me out. I have my own horseman going south to scout out the main body of his force, and see what he's fielding these days. My Hoplite is scouting for the German army at the same time, to see if it's moving towards Hattusa. 



That's two more cities than last turn. He's definitely seeking a religious victory, and it looks like he's starting with Woden. Unfortunately, Woden will likely just pump out whatever wonder gives you 2 Apostles in the event his holy city gets crushed. I don't know if I can resign a DoF with Alhambram, but it's nice to know at least one person will oppose him. Maybe I will try to grab a late religion later....might not be the worst idea. 



Woden got the GM. The next one, Giovanni de Medici, will be the one I try to land. He will be useful for getting Hong Kong's CH off the ground, since the city is light on production. In the meantime though, that's 180 free gold for Woden, plus the gold saved on tile purchases 

On the bright side, I finished my second commercial hub!



5 turns until I have the Inspiration for Medieval Faires. The Lafayette to Schuyler trade route is also about to run out, which means I can now run it to Hamilton. Within 5 turns, all my cities will be connected by classical roads to the capital, and I'll have my triangle of roads for defense in Upper Hamiltonia and the Death Valley Region. 



My gold is pretty spectacular these days. I would ideally like 490 gold, enough to upgrade into 4 archers and one knight, but I suspect I will fall just a little short. 

The plan. 

At this point, I'm lining everything up into a swap into Professional Army, Limes, and Serfdom. I want to keep this period as short as possible, as I will be running without Conscription and Caravansaries for a short period, and losing gold like there's no tomorrow. However, I need it to be long enough to mostly build walls in Hamilton and Lafayette, and complete builders in most of my cities. I also want to run it as close to the t105 date as possible to save money on military upkeep. However, I'm already not happy about having to delay Merchant Republic and use Recorded History to make this period as short as possible and get expedite getting back into gold producing civics. 

Btw, this is where losing that heavy chariot in the war is coming back to bite me. It's going to cost me 4 turns of production in Hamilton, and I can't spare the time to get into maneuver before hand.  

Oh, right. So yeah, I'm building a heavy chariot to upgrade into a knight. Knights are 48 strength, which will bring my base city defensive strength from 26 to 38 just in time for a prospective invasion. I don't have native iron, but I'm getting 1 from Hattusa and have an encampment. I just need to do the upgrade before Hattusa falls to Singaboy. Another time constraint. 

Anyway, this was the solution I drummed up on the road to deal with the delay in reaching muskets. Strength 44 cities would be better, but 38 will do, and most importantly, stack up a whole lot better to double GG enhanced crossbows, which are the nightmare unit I may have to face. Let's just say I had nothing better to do while driving than mentally run numbers on how 50 ranged strength crossbows would stack up against the various things I might field, I have the damage tables for this game more or less memorized at this point. Summary, it isn't pretty, but I can survive as long as he can't first strike me with them. At any rate, this means my army on t105 will look something like: 

3-4 Crossbows
0-1 Archers
1 Knight
2 Swords
2 Horsemen 
1 Hoplite
El Cid?  

I expect this will stack up fairly well against anything Archduke can muster. He likely won't have the money to upgrade more than 1 crossbow by t105, which means he'd be relying on 5-7 GG-enhanced horsemen. Crossbows two shot those things, and Schuyler has two innate crossbows between its city center and encampment. If Singaboy attacks at the same time, things get dicier, but are still manageable. 

So, over the next few turns, here's the rough sequence of events: 

Build Heavy Chariot
Finish Medieval Faires (Leave at 1t as late as possible and work on Recorded History in the interim, with above mentioned time constraints affecting how much I can sandbag it)
Swap into Professional Army/Serfdom/Limes
Mostly build walls in Lafayette/Hamilton
Finish as many builders as possible 
Upgrade military
Finish Recorded History
Swap back into gold producing civics, and likely whichever civic gives +50% production on melee and ranged units as a hedge against having to fight a total war
Push for Exploration/Merchant Republic

In short, a lot is going to be happening over the next dozen turns. After I get over the Merchant Republic hump, I'll have a lot more options, and can seriously consider getting into Professional Army again to upgrade swords into muskets. 

Finally, here are all the economic things I will be trying to get going in the next bunch of turns

 - Taking Medici 
 - Building two markets
 - Building one university at King's College
 - Settling my remaining 3-5 city-sites
 - Getting out a round of granaries everywhere

I actually would really love to get back into expansion mode and pump out three more settlers and a round of granaries everywhere. Housing is the best way right now to improve my science/culture vis-a-vis Woden.

[Pharmboy_Andy]

Thabks for the great thread, I'm really looking forward to th next 20 turns to see how long these plans last for! 

Quick question: what does "no though" mean? I tried google but didn't have any luck.

[oledavy]

Thabks for the great thread, I'm really looking forward to th next 20 turns to see how long these plans last for! 

Quick question: what does "no though" mean? I tried google but didn't have any luck.

Just a turn of phrase, it may be that it's not super common, and I just happen to be one of the random people who use it in their everyday conversation. 

It means something like: "nevertheless," "however," etc. Usually I just use it to introduce a new thought when switching gears from a previous one.

[Zero_1627]

Quick question: what does "no though" mean? I tried google but didn't have any luck.

Just a turn of phrase, it may be that it's not super common (...) It means something like: "nevertheless," "however," etc. Usually I just use it to introduce a new thought when switching gears from a previous one.

Shouldn't that be "Now though"?


Also, I see a grand plans from You once again! Go Hamiltonia!

[oledavy]

Turn 95

Quiet turn. Still waiting on Medieval Faires, Military Engineering, and my round of builders to complete. 

Woden is currently 4 techs ahead, but I'm not terribly worried. Machinery and Chivalry are both a fraction of a turn from completion, I'm 2/3's of the way done with Military Engineering, and at least two of his are Astrology and Mathematics, which are both fairly cheap techs at this stage (1 and 3 turns respectively). 

I'm holding steady about 3-4 culture/science per turn behind him. I'm content with that for now. Alhambram's taking of Vilnius did put a little dent in his culture production. Alhambram's culture, by comparison, is through the roof thanks to his early Great Writer. The most concerning thing at the moment are the military strength's of my competitors, all in the 350-500 range while I sit at 233. 



Woden completed an industrial district in his captal. Oracle is coming up big for him this game. 

In the east, at least one Greek chariot is moving towards Seoul.



Archduke continues to scout my territory in the west. Meanwhile, Woden walked right up to my border, as expected, visible in my overview shot: 



I decided to keep moving west with my horse. I can always double back if he decides to pillage and run. For my part, I moved an archer from Schuyler into position to cover the pasture tile, and moved Hong Kong's archer into a position to intercept if he goes north. 

Between these three archers and my horse, I think I have all the ways out covered. Hopefully he'll just be content to peek and gallop away, but if he does pillage the pasture, I can make sure the horse doesn't get out alive and get myself 18 culture and some XP in the process.

[oledavy]

Turn 96



Well, that's not the best news. Still, it doesn't look like he's planning anything. His Heavy Chariot southwest of Seoul fortified, and I spied one of his horsemen near the old Frankfurt location this turn. 

I'm going to offer him a DoF on ~t100. We'll see if he accepts it. 



A Greek Hoplite and German horseman are northeast and east of Killiminjaro. So far, I've spotted 2 Greek Horsemen, 1 Archer, 1 Warrior, and 1 Hoplite. That's 142 power spotted, about 262 with its location unknown. 

5 more horsemen and 3 archers? That adds up to about 255. I think it's not a great stretch to assume his army is about: 

7 Horsemen
4 Archers
1 Hoplite
1 Warrior

In the west, I finally found Woden. 



Woden's horseman opted not to attack, but I am still shadowing him for the time being. Of greater concern is that Archduke's horseman continues to go deeper into my territory. I now have a spider web of trade routes running through my backlines, and I'm about to have builders wandering around. This economic area could easily be disrupted by a single horseman, and I don't have the forces in the area at current to easily dispatch him. 

Something to bear in mind, I really do need at least 1 or 2 knights hanging around and playing zone defense to keep my backlines secure from raiding parties. Maybe I'll build a second heavy chariot...

Then there's this: 



On the one hand, free gold and culture! On the other, I don't have any military in the area to protect my TR's, and my units are a lightyear away. After a moment of consideration, I switched New York to an archer. I'll need lots of cheap units on hand when I get to Retainers, it can always upgrade into a crossbow, and it gets out faster than any unit I could send up here. It will delay my monument for 5 though, for a cost of 10 culture. At least I'll make that up in clearing the encampment. Now I just need to hope I don't get one of my spanking new trade routes pillaged. 

On the plus side, none of them can be pillaged before I get the Medieval Faires Eureka. 

So, I check the city states every turn to see who is investing in them. 



Oh come on Alhambram, am I really the one you want to be competing with? I'm sitting on one envoy, so I can secure my position here if he gets to 3 quickly. It's just a bit irritating though. I was hoping to have envoys to sink into some of Woden's city-states out west. I could really use a commercial city state actually. 3 envoys would get me 12 gold per turn. 

Anyway, speaking of trade routes: 



2 more turns until the fourth one!

Alhambram converted another city: 



I wonder what Woden is thinking about now...

Anyway, still waiting for everything to start coming together around t100. Things will likely continue to be quiet until then.