OK, I'm trying to think through the meta game. While I have never considered myself a top notch BTS player, I do think that I have a bit more experience and probably skill than the other players in this game. However, the skill gap isn't THAT crazy big that I can just presume that I'm going to win no matter what. Especially if the other players decide that they need to work together to take me out. Further, I am a firm believer in the importance of doing my best to win no matter what. Nothing pissed me off more as a kid than when my older brother or dad would purposely go easy on me in basketball. If I won it was hollow and if I lost it was even more embarrassing!
Therefore, in order to do my best to win this game, I'm trying to think through what meta strategy would be most effective. This I know so far about the diplo world/culture:
-Xenu is loving his roleplaying as Mao, doesn't want to sign NAPs this whole game and consistently talks about his poor skills and desire to have fun (authentic or part of the persona?)
-Sian is the most experienced of the three opponents. He told me that he made the "deal" with SlowWalk but basically gave up the Oracle which he was never planning to go for in exchange for other wonders (GLH, GL, Colossus). He immediately wanted a NAP even tho he had a warrior near my border and I only had a scout near his.
-SlowWalk think they made a great deal with Sian and are convinced that Sian was making a play for the Oracle (based on his founding Buddhism). They are toying with founding another religion after missing Buddhism. They also asked for a NAP.
So, 2 players wanted NAPs immediately and 1 player isn't planning on doing NAPs all game--at least according to the consensus of all the other players and his own stated plans.
If Sian really manages to land all the wonders that SlowWalk ceded to him, then he's going to be sitting pretty. Which means he's either a good person to work with since he'll be focused on wonders and not on military/expansion as much. OR he's the best person to try to take over because he'll come with a number of goodies. Given that Sian started w/o Mysticism and that he's IND it seems odd for him to make a play for Buddhism without the goal of the Oracle. He went for mysticism and we know he build Stonehenge. So he might have been thinking why not go for Buddhism for the religion. If so, it was a poor play. He has free culture in Stonehenge and he had lots of other options for what to research and can't be in desperate need of happiness yet. He's either a master diplo expert and played it off to me like he didn't care, or he over prioritized landing a religion.
Assuming Sian was honest with me, then SlowWalk got played pretty good. He guaranteed no competition for three wonders while "giving up" one that he didn't want at all. I *tend* to think this is correct because building Stonehenge and then immediately sinking hammers into Oracle would be a pretty tough hit on expansion. Regardless, Sian is sly since he played someone no matter which scenario is true. That will be important to note in future negotiations.
Xenu is a wildcard with his role playing persona and anti-NAP mindset. I'm anti-NAP in preference but have signed two in order to set the right tone. (Ultimately, I want peace so I can use my IMP to expand ASAP. To paraphrase Krill, expand till the economy crashes and cottage everything!)
My goal is to get one player squarely on "my side." That prevents a 3-1 dogpile and allows me to focus energy elsewhere. It won't be Xenu but I'm not sure if SlowWalk or Sian is a better ally. If I ever want a wonder, it's better to be able to negotiate with Sian than compete with him and his IND ability.
Another angle would be to play best friends with everyone while slowing a little mistrust between the other teams. This is the highest risk/reward option most likely. Risky if they talk to each other and figure it out but if they positive feels build towards me while doubt builds between others, that's good. For example, so far, I've been trying to reinforce the SlowWalk-Sian situation as much as posisble. Xenu thinks they have tension between each other. Sian thinks he took advantage of SlowWalk. SlowWalk think it'd be terrible for Sian to find out that they talked to me about their deal (not sure why, though). So, let's keep stirring that pot!
I'm not sure that I've really gotten anywhere clear, but it's been a good exercise to think about each one a little more. Short term plan is to just keep them all on as good a side as possible with me and expand, expand, expand!