[PB63 Spoilers] Ginger and Lazteuq find a way to peace

[Ginger()]

Before:
   


After:
   


Result:
   

I debated for some time whether to dump my spare beakers into gunpowder, potentially signaling my intentions to Mjmd by accident or into Education, in the end I decided on gunpowder, not sure if that was the right call. Its unnerving how well designed the tech tree is, a dillemma of capturing first-to bonuses or just getting the advanced Mil tech ASAP. Most efficient path that captures all the bonuses is Philo -Nationalism, Edu, then Lib steel, then backfill economics. Or I could just skip everything and hell-leather for Steel. It's really driving me nuts because I'm not sure how to "solve" this situation. If I try and hit Mjmd and the first strike isn't enough, I'm extremely screwed. But the alternative is gifting Cornflakes lands to SD if I choose to go east. We'll see how that shakes out. It's relevant that invading Mjmd would require opening a border/front with SD. I'm going to try to assemble a fleet of 5 caravels and 5 galleys in the central sea, and get ready to use naval movement to advance future cannons.

[Ginger()]

So the gold savings rate after two banks is now ~260 which is world’s best GNP by A Lot. I need to find a way to capitalize on it.
Mjmd is saving gold on Philosophy after teching CS. Sorry dude, I can’t let you get Taj. I pop a golden age in 7-8 turns and will be researching Nationalism then. At 130gpt I don’t think he can beat me without GE. I’m setting up a modest OF chain in Antium, so I should land Taj within the 12 turn MoM golden age.
Mjmd sent me another offer where he goes and fights Cairo(why?? grudge? misdirection?), and I vaguely replied positively. I really have two options, either fight the friendly neighbor because border gore, or go make conquests elsewhere trying to preserve the friendship? So I’ve got two plans, both hinging on a wait-and-see with the CF wars.
Plan A) If Cornflakes is able to drive Mjmd into the sea, either by outmaneuvering SD or signing peace, the best move for me is to mass a stack of Cannon and go for the throat with Mjmd.
Plan B) Because I don’t want to fight someone with such friendly signaling who might see SD as a longer term threat, I’m considering trying to manipulate a situation with Mjmd where I go East and he goes west and we dogpile SD making this a two-horse race. Of course any of his cities in Fabled’s land is going to be yet more border gore. To that end, I was thinking about proposing Mjmd a deal offering gold for his Cornflakes/Fabled cities so that I can move in on that ‘continent’. I would offer around 5-700 gold for everything south of the Jewish holy city, and coupled with that I would offer my war with SD/CF in exchange for his war with SD. I didn’t send it yet because I don’t want to offend or trigger a defensive response by demanding his fresh conquests, but I don’t really see us splitting the land area conveniently.
Plan C) invade Bing, this is bad because it costs an ally and doesn’t hurt my main rivals. Benefit is it’s cheaper-than otherwise land acquisition

[Tarkeel]

Just a reminder that per the rules of the game you can't buy cities, only trade one city per peace deal (which has to be one-sided).

[Ginger()]

Just a reminder that per the rules of the game you can't buy cities, only trade one city per peace deal (which has to be one-sided).

But you can request them as part of deals to signal or prevent trade acceptance, right? Because that’s what I’ve been sending (and receiving!) the last 154 turns

[Miguelito]

You usually use revolts for that, as with cities it's likely that your counterpart will try to interpret some meaning into the city chosen.
Also I would in fact argue that under AI diplo you are supposed to not send offers that would be illegal to accept.

[Ginger()]

SD's posting, Bing's posting! Mjmd's posting! Cornflakes is posting! The lurkers are posting! 
Quick, think of something entertaining to outline your empire and plans!
Well since I failed creative writing in high school, all you get are pictures

Before economic civics:
   

After economic civics (Rep, Serfdom, Merc):
   
 

Also, this is the military advisor:
   




Nationalism in 4, popping 2 person MoM GA in 3 unless the ~12% chance at a merchant from ToA screws me out of a golden age, that would be a major wrench.

[Tarkeel]

Those are some pretty good demo's. Any plans on how to take advantage of them?

On a purely egoistic note, how are you finding the map?

[Ginger()]

The fortunes of war are always uncertain. The attacker has to make a *profitable* conquest, the defender has not to worry about long term considerations. All this is excuses to say that I’m passive to a fault. But I’m allowed my comfort zone when it’s going so well, :shrug:

Since I don’t need to actively change the status quo, I’ll wait until my advantage is overwhelming before making any moves. Looking to rush Assembly Line after the Renaissance Mil techs are cleared. SciMeth is going to be delayed as long as I can live without Airships. Had the attack on Cornflakes not happened, I would’ve had to make a move but as it is I’m outracing him for a long time yet even IF he recoups all his land losses. And that’s a big if, because Mjmd is heavily committed. I don’t have vision on SD’s Knight stack.

Originally I planned on the lower half of the tech tree, collateral is king and Cannons are cheaper tech wise than rifling. However I think I’m going to make the trademark singleplayer mistake and ignore cannons for Cuirs/Rifling. The reason being, that since I have Nationalism, few workshops and my main naval rival isn’t going to willingly obsolete Colossus, Chemistry is without value, and Steel itself is more expensive than Mil Trad.

And then, once you have Nationalism/Miltrad, Printing Press/RP/Rifling becomes much more attractive than Steel, militarily and for the yield bonuses
Cannons will be a threat to any of my offensives, but Cuir/Cav flanking should crush any cannon-based invasion.

[Ginger()]

As for the map, I really like it, its got great flavor and variation for a mirror map, the islands are rich but not super defensible, and ultimately my complaints (kind of just one neighbor bordergore—the others stable, and the canal status of marble seas), are minor and come because I’ve stared at this map for an ungodly amount of time.

Another plus for the map, good amount of rivers, not too much, not too little. The map is a little rich for my singleplayer tastes, but it’s conservative by RB standards so I appreciate that. On a plus side the land wealth made the expansion early-game cushy and comfortable for a first-time pitboss

[Ginger()]

Well, I'm biting my nails for next turn's GPP roll, 15% chance for double merchants to ruin my game LEETTSSSS GOOOOO!!!

With peace between the Egyptians and Mayans, Cornflakes is likely going to recover is original territory, but the reset on the cultivation of Fabled's land is going to give me enough time to grow my GNP/power advantage. Long long term CF is still a threat because he's tenacious and a well-rounded player, but I shouldn't have to sweat about him for the next 30 turns. (I wonder if I'm setting up a bad meta precedent by defecting on the dilemma and not joining the CF dogpile?) Unfortunately, while CF might be grateful for my peace, he's much too realpolitik to let it get in the way of stabbing me later. He also might feel like I owe him because he fought off my main rivals. Point is to continue to watch from that angle and use tech to keep Boudicca at arm's length away. He wins if SD rather fights me, and Mjmd also inflicts heavy losses on me.

Superdeath's best chance to win now seems to be eating a floundering Jack and coming back/warding off a vengeful Cornflakes with better troops. Which probably means Cannons, he's too far from Cuirassiers, much less Rifles. However, his land development has been Not Great. He has 20% of the world land area, compared to my 12%, but he has less population and an equal number of cities. His dotmap is extremely spread out*, wasted a possible Banana city on the land bridge to Cairo, and has room for just one city left. Additionally, unless you are happy capped (as Mayans with double the luxes?) or building non-whippables, MINES ARE NOT GOOD TILES. The hammer economy is a great theory, but you need food-neutral tiles like watermills or windmills (and serfdom) otherwise you're just gimping your growth and population totals. Especially because a hammer economy doesn't whip and relies on tall cities to carry the research. *The dotmap is doubly heinous when you consider he's playing Imp/Ind/Cre* with 2.5 hammer-saving traits that cheapen the investment at a per-city rate, there's no excuse to spread out. It's not like San Martin or Mansa where you go for fewer, taller cities.\

Cairo is just grilling man. Dude, just let a guy grill.

Jack, well previously I said he had good infrastructure in place, but I seem to have mis-recognized Libraries as courthouses (don't ask me how), actually, he has no courthouses. He is FIN and in Bureaucracy, but his tech rate has severely fallen since that three-way partition war, and troublingly his power increase in the meantime has not been particularly impressive to compensate. He was always going to have a rough game once Pindicator fell, but his only chance was a dedicated mil-tech beeling to invade an immediate land neighbor (probably SD, maybe Bing if SD gave his blessing), but that hasn't materialized. I think it's safe to say he's out of the running.

Mjmd has played a very good game, but I think he made a big mistake on skipping the Shwedagon Paya. Especially with Parth, he could've had a Paci/Caste golden age and be in theocracy now, gotten additional great people and started pumping double promo boats and triple promo mounted. It just feels like such a huge blunder to be Charismatic and not running both XP civics. He's already running vassalage and I can see he's built several stables, besides he had a lot of early infrastructure, it doesn't make sense why he would be needing OR, just use monasteries, he already had like 3. Oh well.

Bing, well well, as you'll soon see, my buddy here is an opportunist. Respectable GNP, otherwise diminutive demographics, and a bad habit of whipping wonders. Notre Dame while running HR was probably not worth 4 pop. Needs to make something happen, is courting me for a round 2. 

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Now for the big news

Cornflakes should be able to drive out Mjmd's Elecat half-stack roaming around near Camelyn
Bing sent me war with Mjmd on turn 170 
Oh yeah, it's all coming together  

I feel really bad about planning in depth and at length to backstab. But did OH or Mack ever win by friendship award? 

It's not even opportunism—Mjmd isn't weak. But that's the biggest problem, he's the biggest threat to my core cities, and if I can reach Cav before Cornflakes reaches Mil Sci, which is the current trajectory of things, I'm not too worried about a trickle of commando Grenadiers from one HE city. I've been deliberately sparse with my roads. Of course there is the possibility that Bing backstabs me, but he's holding a losing hand as the demos currently stand, playing for the status quo doesn't make sense for him. He might not perceive it that way, since he probably thinks fighting me is inevitable as he won't outrace my economy. But before he can do that he'll need to pick up more land, if he dogpiles me with Mjmd, and I manage to convince Mjmd to peace out, its ruh roh raggy for the Malians   . He might've accurately judged that I have little intention to war him and will as such not defect in a war with the Sumerians, while the Sumerians might defect in a war with me. 

Despite my glee and bravado and demo flaunting, it's going to be quite a squeeze to have Mil Trad, Gunpowder, and the cash to upgrade 40 knights all ready by turn 170.