Dave's Not Throwing Away His Shot

[oledavy]

t100 Round-Up

I feel like I've expressed many of these sentiments before, but t100 feels like an opportune time to reflect on the game thus far, what the various players have done, and what the future might hold. They're ordered from least likely to most likely to win the game, in my estimation.


TheArchduke

I would like to formally nominate Archduke for the Montezuma award for this game    Seriously, he has seemed to have one AI flavor since it started, military. 

With the benefit of hindsight, I don't think this was the game to try and replicate Sullla's PBEM1 GG rush. Everyone was hyper-aware of the danger, and the playing field of this game was significantly more level to begin with. This is not to say that Archduke has not been successful in his wars. Far from it, he's conquered Buenos Aires and burned two of Singaboy's cities to the ground, far more than I managed to do in the Second Korean War. Unfortunately for him, it doesn't actually feel like he has done much to strengthen his position. He's weakened his neighbors, to be sure, but only 2 of the 4 other players in this game, which doesn't do much in the long-term to make him win. He didn't do enough damage to me to prevent me from reclaiming my relatively dominant economic position.

The more I think about it, the more mystified that I am that he burned Frankfurt. I understand he would likely have never got Singaboy to cede it to him. That was still a free Industrial District and Commercial Hub. The small city I understand, but the jewel of Frankfurt? He's already made a game-long enemy of Singaboy, he should have just kept the city. His location is far inferior in city quality. 

The only thing I can say about Dorium is that it's a lot more defensible, so he's got that going for him. 

No though, it feels like Archduke is not in a significantly better position to win than before he started attacking everyone, and you have to wonder if those resources invested in military might have been better spent somewhere else. Impossible to say for sure though. 

I want to emphasize that I think Archduke has played very well on a tactical level. The ruins of Frankfurt are evidence of that. I just continue to question some of his big decisions. The war against me was botched, not in the general idea, or even in most of the unit movements, but in a buildup of questionable meta decisions that alerted me to the threat and ultimately allowed me to ultimately fend him off. 

Yet, he has grabbed a second Great General, indicating he's not planning up on giving up the way of the sword anytime soon. He will remain dangerous for some time to come. That being said, I have to feel that time is not on his side. His existing military will grow increasingly more obsolete, and he will find his opponent's in stronger long-term positions. 

I do want to acknowledge he has done a good job catching up on expansion in the last few turns, and he's certainly not out of the running. I do feel, however, that we will look back on this game and generally agree that Archduke invested too much in military without producing results that strengthened his position. It makes him not much of a long-term threat, but for the time being, he's a nightmare of a neighbor to have. 


Singaboy

I would have said about 15 turns ago that Singaboy was completely out of the running for this game. I'm not so sure anymore. Greatly reduced odds of winning, to be sure, but he's about to get a long period to just peacefully expand and build - something that plays to Germany's strengths. Because of the relative backwater position of Germany and the fact that he gets to sit out the next few rounds of wars if he so chooses, I think he actually has better odds of winning this game than Archduke. 

If he overcomes all this and manages to win this game, I will be the first to congratulate him. For now though, I'm keeping an eye on him while focusing on the bigger threats to my south and west. I think a time will come where I have to reckon with my eastern neighbor once again and my armies will once again march out upon the Korean Plain. 

For now though, I just want a secure border, and hopefully the maintenance of Hattusan Independence. Singaboy is likely going to focus on expansion for the time being, and otherwise stay out of affairs between me and Archduke. Actually, the biggest question is whether or not he'll jump on when I invade Archduke. It would be an opportunity for him to claim revenge and retake some of his lost land. 


Alhambram

Once again proving that I am crap at making predictions about this game at this early point in the meta, Alhambram seems a lot stronger than I thought a mere dozen turns ago. I still doubt the long-term feasibility of a religious victory, but the religious route seems to be paying off massively, he's in the process of absorbing his second city state, and is staying competitive in culture and science. His biggest weakness, that I can see, is that he's not ramping up as quickly on science production as other players. He also has Woden as a neighbor, giving him a massive obstacle to overcome in attempting any victory. It sucks for him that Woden is the one player who can fight his religious spread. 

I'm going to try to cultivate Alhambram as my ally pretty hard in the coming turns. The trick is going to be doing it without leaving me with no options to oppose his religion - yet another reason I am considering founding my own. We make very natural partners, and it would be really nice to finally have someone I can work with who I can trust not to backstab me. Hopefully when he and Woden's DoF runs out, he'll declare and drag him down. We shall see. As long as he remains a potent counterbalance and has a strong military though, he will prevent Woden from going full builder mode.


OleDavey

I've already gone on about my position at length, but I think I'm currently in a very solid 2nd place in this game. However, unlike Woden, I feel like I face significant challenges to my victory. Woden has a start that vaguely reminds me of Parkin in PB7. Nobody can get at him seemingly, at least nobody on our side of the continent. 


Woden

Who would have thought wonder spamming would work as a path to victory. I'm genuinely very impressed - although I do feel the need to point out that if Woden had my neighbors, he would have never been able to do what he's done. The start played well to China's strengths. That being said, I feel like the rest of the field has closed the gap over the last dozen turns or so, despite it all. Woden's expansion has seemed to slow a little bit - perhaps a result of having to mobilize for that stillborn war with Alhambram. 

That being said, I expect he's about to start accelerating again. He's probably shortly going to acquire Nan Madol, and I'm guessing he has a couple settlers en route or in production at the moment, where I have none. For the moment, however, I'm going to bask in the relative parity I enjoy with Woden in civics and techs. Thermopylae and Seoul/Hattusa have proven effective counterweights to Dynastic Cycle and Vilnius/Nan Madol. 

Woden is not just a threat in that he might be able to win with his starting land, and tech himself to victory behind a wall of mountains, but also in that he poses a not unsubstantial threat of overrunning Alhambram at some point while the rest of us look on hopelessly. While Archduke continues to be a massive threat to me close to home, the true leviathan lurks in the west. While I'm still optimistic about my chances to overcome him, I have a long way to go.

[oledavy]

Turn 101

You can always count on barbs to throw a last minute wrench in the works...



Literally the worst time and place. This means, my Horsemen will likely be starting out the war injured, and at least one archer out of position. What's worse, that forest northeast of the pasture is the one I'm chopping to get the heavy chariot and walls out. That could be a 1t delay if I'm cautious, and a potentially fatal delay if the scout captures the builder. I only made the above move after much deliberation and devising a backup plan that gets me a heavy chariot out of Hamilton with a 1t delay. Needless to say though, I'm not terribly happy about this turn of events. 

At least it's potentially free culture and gold though. I held off on asking Alhambram for a loan with that in mind. 

The other things making me nervous: 



There's the invasion army!

This horseman should still make it home on time by cutting east though. I need to get on that forested hill next turn though. I'm a little bit worried Archduke is going to interdict him getting home. This and the barbs are making me worried for the number of units I'll have around Schuyler for t105. I may end up chopping the sword to completion instead of the armory to shore up my position. Or who knows, maybe a heavy chariot if things look really dicey...

At least I have all these options. Earlier in the game, there was not this much room for error. 

I now know the locations of 5 horses, 3 archers, 2 warriors, 1 hoplite, and 1 GG. Likely 1 Horseman and 1 Archer unaccounted for. 

The final thing I'll be worrying about as I fall asleep tonight: 



Woden and Archduke's horsemen continue toodling around my north. They could cause me trouble. I really need a horseman/knight or two of my own up here to kill them should they choose to declare war. I'm worried about all my shiny new trade routes getting ruined. 

Abroad, Singaboy finished a third Hansa. 



Nice going there!

Archduke settled two more cities to bring him up to 8!



I finished Astrology, continuing my 1-turning tech spree. 



Last thing of note, Archduke sank two envoys into Preslav....



That could make his horses more difficult to deal with should it come to war, but it's not worth worrying about at the moment. 

Alright, that's enough Civ for one day.

[oledavy]

Final thought. What if I actually just planned on chopping out 3 Heavy Chariots, and prevailed upon Alhambram for a big fat loan in the ~150 gold range, and upgraded 3 crossbows and 3 knights. 

That would be enough to go on the offensive and take Buenos Aires, 2 GG's be damned. 

Food for thought.

[oledavy]

Turn 102

Third one-turned tech, finished a very long time after I started it. 



In the west, I believe that the barb scout was killed by Archduke, and the spear attacked out. I could have scored a major victory this turn, but I opted to stay in place. With any luck, Archduke will attack the spear or it will attack out, and I can finish it off next turn for the 12 culture and gold. His archer shouldn't be able to go hit it.



In the north, the barb scout appeared, wounded? I'm guessing there is a Carthaginian unit up there. The Greek horseman is two hexes to the southwest of my archer. I think the Chinese horseman is also somewhere in the central desert. 



Carthage did me a major solid last turn, and hooked up its Niter!



I didn't expect that they would be able to do that. Now I have two sources, as a source from a city-state doesn't count as one of my own apparently, so I'm still getting Hattusa's. When I connect mine, Hattusa's should go away, but I will have Carthage's. Two niter means I can spam out muskets from every city. 

With Singaboy and me now locked into a DoF, there is only one place those muskets can go.



3 Builders on 3 Forests/Jungles. All set to chop next turn. Time to make a deal that could change the course of this game. 



If he grants me the loan, on t104 I will upgrade 3 crossbows, and on t105, I will upgrade 3 knights. 

If he does not, I won't chop out heavy chariots and will stick with my defensive plan - and await muskets. 

What would my army look like? 

3 Knights
3 Crossbows
2 Swords
2 Horsemen
2 Archers
1 Hoplite
1 Battering Ram

Archduke's army consists of: 

6 Horses
4 Archers
2 Warriors
1 Hoplite
2 Great Generals

I feel like I can overpower him with that advantage. I will have fire superiority with crossbows and he doesn't have anything that can effectively deal with knights, unless he masses crossbows anyway. 

I don't think this army is powerful enough to overrun his capital, but I should be able to take Buenos Aires. The one hiccup there is the completition of the city's encampment. On the one hand, yay free encampment! On the other hand, I don't think I can bypass it and run directly at the city without incurring terrible losses. I will likely have to reduce the for before moving onto the city. 

At this point, here is my preferred chain of events: 

1. Alhambram grants me the loan
2. Archduke sees my "up to the last minute" weakness and attacks Schuyler/Lafayette. 
3. I counterattack with crossbows and knights and destroy his army. 
4. I move onto Buenos Aires and take the city

Whatever ends up happening, it should be interesting.

[oledavy]

Turn 103



Alhambram, you magnificent bastard. I owe you!
Alright. 2 turns until this thing kicks off. The long awaited Peloponnesian War is about to begin. 

All the big news of the turn is evident in the frame. In the north, the scout suicided against my archer. I'm going to assume I got culture from that....

Thermopylae: 203 Culture

Archduke is now obviously preparing for war, and he has a ram. The spear in the encampment didn't attack out, so I will be unable to take it sadly. Free 50 gold for Archduke....that will probably allow him to upgrade a second crossbow, but I haven't seen any yet. 

Abroad, Woden settled 2 new cities. 



He's also probably about to take Nan Madol, so he definitely merits being kept an eye on. This also boosted his science per turn amount. 



I've decided I'm not going to bring my two horseman home. I'm going to keep them in Archduke's backline and use them to pillage and harass. I am planning on taking Raid as a Civic when I make my swap in a few turns, and there is a trade route between BA and Ithake and lots of mines south of the city. That is potentially a lot of science and gold. Once I get through this round of upgrading, I need to start saving again to upgrade 2 swords, 2 archers, and 1 catapult in about ~15 turns. Pillaging that trade route and that pasture will help immensely towards that end. 



I'm feeling confident enough in my ability to hold my cities and march on BA with the units I'm finishing and currently have in the area. Fort Lee and the unit in it is the ultimate trump card for me. That archer will next turn be a crossbow, and it gets +10 strength from being in a district, and +7 strength when attacking district defenses. 

So, Base 30 + 10 + 7 -17 = 30....and the current strength of the garrison of BA is 30. 

If things don't change, my crossbow will do 30 damage to the defenses of the city each turn, and take out the walls in 2 turns. 

I'm not in position to begin an all out attack on t105, but I definitely will be declaring for no other reason than to start whittling down his defenses. 

My treasury is going to be pushed to the limit, but I should be able to make it through without going into the negative. I started working the crab tile at New York this turn to be sure, and have a couple envoys I'm sitting on that can boost my GPT in the event of an emergency. 

Next turn, I upgrade 3 crossbows, and finish 1 sword and 2 heavy chariots, which will make my GPT expenses go up 10. Upgrading three knights will make them go to 16 total from this turn's total. The switch back to gold producing civics, notably Conscription, can't come soon enough. 

Two knights will serve as the vanguards of the attack on BA. The other will head north to dispatch Archduke's errant horse. 



Here is Hamiltonia at the end of the turn. Note the 3 chops came in, and I now have 2 more walls and a heavy chariot in Schuyler. Hamilton also grew to size 7 when I harvested the jungle and laid down an encampment. 

Not much to say but 

Next turn will be the last turn of peace for a long time.

[Mardoc]

Next turn will be the last turn of peace for a long time.

Woooo!    
   

Good luck!


On an only semi-related note, I'm confused by some of this:

So, Base 30 + 10 + 7 -17 = 30....and the current strength of the garrison of BA is 30.

If things don't change, my crossbow will do 30 damage to the defenses of the city each turn, and take out the walls in 2 turns.

Where does the -17 come from?  And how does that become 30 damage and 2 turns?  I really don't understand civ6 combat equations...

Once I get through this round of upgrading, I need to start saving again to upgrade 2 swords, 2 archers, and 1 catapult in about ~15 turns.

They all upgrade to musketmen?  Or is there something I'm overlooking here too?

Are musketmen melee combatants, or ranged?

[oledavy]

Srgtrb just posted in the general forum with the combat formula and upgrade paths. 

Swords upgrade into muskets
Archers into Crossbows
Catapults into Bombards

Muskets are a melee unit

Ranged units that are not siege get an automatic -17 malus when fighting district defenses. Having those two promotions on my archer and firing from the district, however, means I will be able to get extremely favorable damage rolls versus the city center.

[oledavy]

Turn 104 - The Calm Before

It was a rather fateful turn, filled with foreboding. I feel like this war will be the most important of the game, that a lot will depend on how this venture fares

If I am successful, I will be neck and neck with Woden, and will no longer have to worry about Archduke nearly as much. If I fail, then Woden will emerge that much stronger relative to me.

My initial goals for this war are very simple: 

1. Take Myrmidon
2. Eliminate Archduke's army, render him not as significant of a threat to me. 

Even if I had no territorial designs on Archduke, this is a war I must fight. I cannot wait until he assembles an army of knights and crossbows, buffed by 2 GG's. A force of that power would be able to defeat even muskets. It's now or never. If I take Buenos Aires, I will reassess and plan where to go from there. If all goes as planned, this war will likely only end with Archduke's elimination. I expect it will take ~40 turns, and consist of this initial phase and then of a grinding musket-led phase, finally winding down around t145. Welcome to the beginning of the next month or so of this game for me. 

Things are already looking scarier than they were: 



Between Archduke killing that camp and getting a loan from Woden, he now has enough to upgrade 4 crossbows, provided he has Mercenaries. There is a definite time limit on when this war gets a lot harder for me to fight. 

I'm really hurting on gold now, and I'm not even done with upgrading yet. Look at those unit costs!



I can't wait to get back in Conscription. 

On the plus side, I found a solution. Instead of running my TR from Lafayette to Hamilton, I'm running one to Aachen. With three districts, it has a pretty awesome TR bonus at present. 



I moved the trader to Hamilton, because the route it would have run from Lafayette would have been too susceptible to the Archduke. 

While we're talking about gold, Mr. Moneybags over here: 



Christ. 

I wonder what he plans to do with all that....

I'm well aware Archduke and I are serving as proxies for the two westerners at the moment   I think my banker has a stronger cashflow though. 

Anyway, 5th tech in 5 turns, thanks to stacking overflow: 



Now even with Woden. Next turn I finish stirrups and pull ahead, then start the trek to gunpowder. 

Upgrading crossbows and building lumber mills got me a couple of Eurekas this turn as well. 





One annoying thing: 



Stupid Woden is going to get the encampment. That's two jacked out from under me....

At least I will probably get to kill the spear at least. Still, really annoying. 

I started planning worker moves this turn, and I've decided I'm going to make a late push to get 10 pop into Hong Kong for the Civil Service Eureka. 




5 more farms will get me up to 11 housing, and with two feudalism triangles and 1 watermill, I should be able to hit 10 pop in a reasonable time frame. I have the builder labor to pull it off. I would also love to lock in that entertainment district sooner rather than later. 

Anyway, everything is staged. Archduke notably moved his forces west. I think he realizes I have the overwhelming unit advantage for the moment and want to avoid being first struck. He wants to lure me in. That's fine, I'm going to sit back and lay waste to the defenses of his encampment and BA from my fortified position, forcing him to come to me, or lose the city. 

At least, I think it will work that way....



A final shot of Hamiltonia at peace. My chariots are all in position to be upgraded, one to go chase down his horseman. My two horsemen are in position to harass his backlines, and my main army are all ready to move up and begin the primary assault next turn if he doesn't declare first. One major priority is pillaging those two quarries for 100 culture once I get raid on. I should have the civic slotted in on t107. Hopefully sooner if I can kill a unit or two of his. 

Anyway, this plan kinda came together last minute, but I like my odds. I have a temporary unit advantage, and I'm going to do my best to leverage it into a better game position. 

Here goes nothing.

[yuris125]

good luck!

[pindicator]