[SPOILERS - NO PLAYERS] The Final Clusterfuck: The PB38 Map and Lurker Thread

[RefSteel]

Donovan doesn't actually have a 3f0h tile, having settled on one floodplain with the other outside his BFC; he'd have been working a 2/1/1 pig on the turns he worked the 0/2/2 bare incense hill instead. (And his Warrior wouldn't have been delayed more than a turn or two - so finished two turns ago instead of three.) Also note the city won't auto-raze, assuming Dark Savant is right that it just grew to size 2.

Donovan finished his first Warrior T18, so the question is what he did with it, and whether he followed through on his plan to build Scouts afterward. If he's building a Warrior, he's probably fine. Even if he didn't, from the position of those animals and the way DZ had scouted at last report, I suspect his existing warrior is just sitting in his capital, and Dark Savant will have terrible odds of doing anything more than crippling his already-crippled neighbor a little more. Would it be worth the gamble anyway? ... I'm going to say no - not if there's a warrior fortified in the city. We'd be talking about low single-digit odds of an admittedly amazing outcome (free second city with an improved and part-improved pigs!) against high-nineties odds of making an enemy for life of a near neighbor who already has nothing to lose ... when Dark Savant is already behind (even Donovan) in early development thanks to his religion gambit.

[ipecac]

Donovan finished his first Warrior T18, so the question is what he did with it, and whether he followed through on his plan to build Scouts afterward.  If he's building a Warrior, he's probably fine.  Even if he didn't, from the position of those animals and the way DZ had scouted at last report, I suspect his existing warrior is just sitting in his capital, and Dark Savant will have terrible odds of doing anything more than crippling his already-crippled neighbor a little more. 

DS can just sit on the pigs and really slow Donovan's growth curve. Donovan won't even have a 3f tile after that, right?

Edit- Donovan has another pig (?!?) but DS shouldn't know that, and squatting on one pig will still make a big impact.

[Krill]

I hope for Donovan's sake he just gets Mortius'd so he is out of the game. Even if DS can keep the city it will cost him an arm and a leg to keep it and his tech rate will get crushed.

[Mardoc]

What - I stop posting for a couple of years and I get written out of history?!?!!?

(It was me and pindicator in PB5 and several other games with Commo-drama)

So actually I just had PB5 and PB8 mixed up in my head...

lest all of Donovan's other neighbours are just as well going to ask themselves, "What shall we do with the empty spaces where waves of hunger roar?"

Eh, I think it would work out, if he can just walk in.  That's the normal reason not to do early war - but the true advice is 'don't invest a lot into an early war when the victim's other neighbors get the same profit without the investment'.  Well...what has Dark Savant invested here?  His warrior was scouting per his original plan and is taking a bit of a detour.  It's only really a problem if he ends up trying to choke Donovan and gets into a long drawn-out war. If he either wins fast or peaces-out fast, he'll be fine. Maybe will even damage Donovan just by being a threat-in-being, if Donovan overbuilds escorts and defenders.

[ipecac]

I mean to plant on the grassland hill that claims sheep, fish, clams, marble, and eventually dyes.

I realize this is a nontrivial reach, but this is a 25-player game and I need to take at least moderate risks in order to claim a strong position.  Also, I'm guessing that other players will be planting similarly distant cities.

Looks like Joey will get a free shrine.

[Erwin]

So, let's recap. DS has a slow start, a future shrine and he has already declared war on one neighbour, has GJ with Keshiks to the north and is planning to settle his second city 6 tiles from 2metraninja's (!) capital, 8 tiles from his own. And he doesn't even have any strategic resources in his capital or in the BFC of his second city! Of course, he has no way of knowing all this, but for the sake of the game, I hope he realizes what he's doing. Otherwise GJ can really snowball ahead.

Another thing I find potentially interesting is that superdeath is planning to rush dtay with dog soldiers when, at the same time, dtay is planning on delaying copper. That is playing with fire, though I don't rely on superdeath's micro to pull the rush off successfully.

[Coeurva]

Yeah I think Savant's plan is overambitious, not least because of the three worker turns he's going to lose moving through all that vegetation, but to be fair, he doesn't know where 2metra is located yet and most of his other defogged tiles suck. That said, I like the plant 9 of pigs. That city essentially blocks 2metra from settling near the marble, devaluates sites near the fish because Savant's religion will allow him to keep control of the sheep, and 2-movers coming from the east inevitably get stuck on hills, which doesn't quite compensate for the loss of hill defense, but it's something.

Harassing Donovan may have cost him the chance to scout those pigs further, which are the best food resource he can see.

Edit: Somewhat related, I like OT4E pointing out that the seductive floodplains plant gets too much food for early-game and that the region can instead support two fine cities on a maritime wonder, which will be stronger for Qin in the long run (both granary-wise and IND-wise!).

[scooter]

I like dtay's plan if I'm understanding it correctly. Seems very possible he's going to race out to an early lead again this game.

[Ituralde]

Just noticed this. This is obviously crazy! 25 players, what were you thinking? Whou could possibly lurk this?

I'm gonna start reading now!

[Japper007]

Did Naufrager actually pull off the double-settler at pop 1 thing other players are calling? I couldn't find any mention/screenshot of it in his thread (and I'm obviously not going to ask him, that'd be majorly spoilerific)