[Spoilers] Suboptimal - Welcome to the Tlachtli of Blunders!

[suboptimal]

Turn 122

Open the save to the notification that Hong Kong has been defeated.  It has fallen to Japper.  That is an immediate boon of 4 population and raises his income to 11 (from zero), largely from the Harbor and Lighthouse present.  rho21’s science has crept up to 99.4.  My Geneva destruction can’t come soon enough.  Our front remains quiet.

Before I do anything else I switch to Divine Right.  Gotta run that for one turn then I can switch back to swap policies.  Up north a barbarian swordsman has made an appearance.  I redline it with my archer and swordsman and it will most likely die next turn.  Pantanal settler is on its way and in the south I found Horse to Water:




It starts out by building walls.  Yeah, that’ll take a while but once I get the niter mined and the horses pastured things will move a little quicker.  

Welcome finished its first catapult and starts a second.  The first moves out to the east.  Maps, needing something to produce, has a spot for a +2 Campus to the SE of the city center.  I put the district down and start construction.  Eleven turns to completion.

[suboptimal]

Archduke, I've got a strategic/tactical question for you, looking ahead a bit....I've got double the mil power of rho21 again though we're currently at tech parity. I figure I should be able to do something with all of that military, no?

With a Great General a bombard can move one hex and then fire as it still has 2MP left. A bombard firing at the Encampment from across the river in this manner (from the tile NE of my Encampment) could take out the walls in one shot, even if rho21 had muskets (it'd be 66 vs ~49) and then continue to rake the district as everything else advanced. Would it be worth upgrading and trying a jailbreak attack on the front? My thinking is this:

- The navy should be attacking Geneva in the mid-130's
- During this time I try to get the swords upgraded to muskets (going to run the +100 CH adjacency policy when Guilds completes in two turns for more income, plus 2 more trade routes)
- On the way back they attack Perseus on the coast (city NE of Menaechmus in the T122 screen shot) and I bring the knights forward towards Menaechmus
- While this occurs, roll the bombard up, take out the Encampment and then advance on Xenocrates from everywhere (cross the river at Near, bring forward the choke point units, etc). I could bring the ram and move up one (or both) bombards on the city to take down the walls. Probably in the T140-145 timeframe, income depending.

[TheArchduke]

I have a longer train ride ahead of me and I will comment extensively. I used up a lot of time for the Postgame discussion on PBEM 8 so give me some more hours.

[suboptimal]

I'm looking forward to your comments. Part of me feels like I need a kick in the pants to get moving again....my current plans are in the next post.

[suboptimal]

Turn 123

No signs of hoplites in the south or other Greek units in the north. It’s quiet...too quiet. rho21 topped the 100 science mark this turn and is at 100.1. He still remains behind on the civics tree. He’s also built a couple of units – his power has gone up to 609 from 529 and he hasn’t spent any gold on them. They are also not “tech current” as his city defense ratings have also not gone up.

I start a caravel in Harborcoat and switch civics back to guilds. The builder there moves off for the forest and with Guilds completing next turn I’ll slot in Press Gangs. The turn after next I’ll chop the woods and then head back the other direction for the stone. With the civics swap I’ll also put in Town Charters for a few turns as that will increase my income a bit (11 gpt).

I feel like my play (perhaps my attitude towards the game, even) has been a bit listless and unfocused. That’s also come through in my reporting of late. Part of it is the lack of anything going on, part of it may have been the fast turn time over the weekend (I think we did 5 or 6 turns on Sunday) and perhaps a little of it is just game fatigue. However, I think I’m starting to get to the corner on the “nothing going on” and that will get me over the game fatigue a bit. Anyways, here’s some thoughts on the situation…..

First off, rho21’s science. He has a population of 50, which intrinsically generates 35 before amenity modifiers. That means he’s got another 65 coming from...where, exactly? He’s got 9 envoys in Geneva, three Campus districts and 3-4 trade routes, at least two of which are going to Geneva based on the roads. I know he’s got at least 4 adjacency from two of his Campuses, let’s call it 6 for the three of them. Two libraries and two universities for the districts (I believe he’s got 7 GS points per turn, need to look when I get home). Geneva gets him 14 – four in each district and two in the capital. The catch is that these count as “adjacency” and are doubled by Natural Philosophy, so Geneva could be generating 28 by itself. So, 35 from population, 12 for district buildings, 40 for adjacency – that’s 87. Trade routes could add another bit between Geneva’s value and Trade Confederation. He’s also got several iron resources that he can work. That doesn’t get the total up to 100. Two possibilities – the first is that I’m missing something “obvious” about science generation. The second and improbable is that Geneva is broken and is giving him the suzerain bonus despite being at war.

Geneva is making him about 30 per turn, based on the above. Knocking him back down to 70-ish by taking the city-state would help me regain a bit of control over the tech situation. I wouldn’t want to keep the city if I take it because I’d have no way of defending it from him taking it or liberating it. Therefore, it gets razed. I doubt he is expecting me to show up with a “pocket navy” to conquer the city, so that’s the plan at Harborcoat. Whether or not the navy sails on T129 or T130 will depend on where the Great Admiral shows up – if it appears in Harborcoat that saves me a turn.

The pocket navy (two frigates, two caravels) could get rid of Geneva and then take or raze Perseus, which is one of his two coastal cities (the other being Dinostratus on the west coast, northeast of Apollonius). Perseus is currently 3 population and it could make things interesting if I were to hold it and put a small but significant force into it. After dealing with Geneva & Perseus I’d try turn the navy around and make haste for Greece’s east coast (there’s no passage around the north past Geneva due to a single snow tile blocking the way). The navy could capture or raze Dinostratus on its own and then use the frigates and a small landing party to take Apollonius as that city is vulnerable to sea bombardment. All of this, though, is at least 20 turns away.

Domestically my current round of builds is going to be finishing up. The rundown:

Begin: Crossbow 5 turns from completion, I’ll hold this one turn from completion to avoid maintenance. Production is 22 per turn.
Welcome: Five turns from completing the second catapult. Production is 18.9 per turn.
Cant: Crossbow, two turns from completion (will hold at one turn), production 25.2 per turn
Harborcoat: Caravel, will be completed in a couple of turns from a chop, then Frigate, also chopped out.
Oddfellows: Trader, four turns to completion, 13.6 production per turn.
How: Settler complete end of this turn. Overflow into IZ which completes in two turns with a chop. Production will hit 29 when the IZ completes and 31 once another chop-and-mine is complete.
Find: Builder completes end of this turn, production 24.1 per turn
Near: Monument, completes end of next turn, production 7.3 per turn
High Speed: Lighthouse completes, 8.4 production per turn
Maps: Currently slow building a Campus, 9 turns to go, 19.9 production per turn
Kenneth: Granary, two turns to completion, 13.6 production per turn
Submarine: Trader completes end of this turn, 12.6 production per turn
Horse: Building walls, 1 production per turn, gonna be a while.

OK, now what? Well, first I want to boost my income. Kenneth, High Speed and Oddfellows will start district projects for more cash (about 9 per turn total). High Speed will also rearrange citizens to get a specialist into the lighthouse for more gold and science. Harborcoat will join them once the navy is complete. Near will start running a district project, most likely a Campus project for a little extra science. Cant and Begin will start but not complete muskets, likewise for defense. Welcome is getting a trader to run to How or Begin for added production and along with How and Find will build out muskets for potential back line defense and to use as the landing party when the pocket navy heads west. Submarine will start its Commercial Hub (finally).

The only potential change to this is the next Great Scientist – it’s going to be an industrial one and if Darwin shows up I’ll need Cant and How to run full-bore on projects to try to get that from rho21 – for him it’d be worth 500; for me, though, it’d be worth 1500 or so due to the Pantanal. Likewise, if Adam Smith shows up in the pipeline I’d probably want to make a run at him. Worst case is that both show up and I’ve got a decision to make.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Whether or not the navy sails on T129 or T130 will depend on where the Great Admiral shows up – if it appears in Harborcoat that saves me a turn. 

GAs show up at your highest-pop city with a Harbor. It kept me from building a Royal Navy Dockyard at my capital in PBEM7 since it meant all my GAs would spawn in a 1-tile lake with no ability to relocate. :/

Harborcoat had 6 pop compared to your other harbor city's 4 pop, per your turn 110 report, so he should spawn there on turn 129 and you can sail as planned.

[suboptimal]

Whether or not the navy sails on T129 or T130 will depend on where the Great Admiral shows up – if it appears in Harborcoat that saves me a turn. 

GAs show up at your highest-pop city with a Harbor. It kept me from building a Royal Navy Dockyard at my capital in PBEM7 since it meant all my GAs would spawn in a 1-tile lake with no ability to relocate. :/

Harborcoat had 6 pop compared to your other harbor city's 4 pop, per your turn 110 report, so he should spawn there on turn 129 and you can sail as planned.

Thanks for the info!  I wasn't aware that they were population dependent.  I guess if the two cities are equal in population it's a random draw or is there a method to the tiebreaker?

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I have no idea! :D

I DO know that the Huey Teockpadkli wonder is also considered a viable spawn location, even though you can only build it in a lake, and you can't use it to transfer a GA. So, uh, be careful if you ever built that wonder (No one ever has in multiplayer, to my knowledge).

[TheArchduke]

Archduke, I've got a strategic/tactical question for you,  looking ahead a bit....I've got double the mil power of rho21 again though we're currently at tech parity.  I figure I should be able to do something with all of that military, no?

With a Great General a bombard can move one hex and then fire as it still has 2MP left.  A bombard firing at the Encampment from across the river in this manner (from the tile NE of my Encampment) could take out the walls in one shot, even if rho21 had muskets (it'd be 66 vs ~49) and then continue to rake the district as everything else advanced.  Would it be worth upgrading and trying a jailbreak attack on the front?  My thinking is this:

- The navy should be attacking Geneva in the mid-130's
- During this time I try to get the swords upgraded to muskets (going to run the +100 CH adjacency policy when Guilds completes in two turns for more income, plus 2 more trade routes)
- On the way back they attack Perseus on the coast (city NE of Menaechmus in the T122 screen shot) and I bring the knights forward towards Menaechmus
- While this occurs, roll the bombard up, take out the Encampment and then advance on Xenocrates from everywhere (cross the river at Near, bring forward the choke point units, etc).  I could bring the ram and move up one (or both) bombards on the city to take down the walls.  Probably in the T140-145 timeframe, income depending.

If you can do this all at once, yes, it sounds like a great plan. I would however count and organize all the battle groups. I especially like the naval strike on Geneva.

I would like a more specific battle plan to comment. Please do not repeat the "take some units and simulate an attack" like before.

OK, now what?  Well, first I want to boost my income.  Kenneth, High Speed and Oddfellows will start district projects for more cash (about 9 per turn total).  High Speed will also rearrange citizens to get a specialist into the lighthouse for more gold and science.  Harborcoat will join them once the navy is complete.  Near will start running a district project, most likely a Campus project for a little extra science.  Cant and Begin will start but not complete muskets, likewise for defense.   Welcome is getting a trader to run to How or Begin for added production and along with How and Find will build out muskets for potential back line defense and to use as the landing party when the pocket navy heads west.  Submarine will start its Commercial Hub (finally).  

The only potential change to this is the next Great Scientist – it’s going to be an industrial one and if Darwin shows up I’ll need Cant and How to run full-bore on projects to try to get that from rho21 – for him it’d be worth 500; for me, though, it’d be worth 1500 or so due to the Pantanal.  Likewise, if Adam Smith shows up in the pipeline I’d probably want to make a run at him.  Worst case is that both show up and I’ve got a decision to make.

Darwin denial is paramount with Pantenal.

[suboptimal]

I'll work out a more detailed plan tonight and tomorrow night. I can get the naval aspect fully planned out tonight as that's the easiest to figure out.