Micromanagement Sims/Planning

[novice]

Also, I'm not certain on this but think I prefer a settler next in AO. This will be the situation on T54:



We can send the settler from AO northwest to settle the fish site. We have one worker on the west side of the river already, he can take care of the road to that site (probably just waste one turn moving to the corn), then chop a work boat once we have fishing. Meanwhile the fish city can work the corn, grow to size 2 and whip a granary, then grow back on a work boat and finish that with a chop. AO can do a worker whip followed by a granary, which it will manage just fine without the corn.

[kjn]

If I'm reading it right you're delaying the pig pasture by one turn by chopping the granary and roading the copper first. The pig pasture should be done on t49.

Apparently. As I said to Seven earlier today, the devil is always in the details with this type of stuff. At least we have it properly documented now.

[Sullla]

Thanks novice (and everyone else). We'll go with that for the time being. The nice thing is that we aren't committed to Stonehenge until the very last turn, and since we are first in turn order, I believe that we win any wonder ties (not 100% of that). If the wonder would fall in 5t, we're still in excellent shape with this particular micro plan setup.

I'll edit it into the first page of this thread for easy reference.

[T-hawk]

since we are first in turn order, I believe that we win any wonder ties (not 100% of that)

Man, you got too used to your privileged position in Pitboss 6. Doesn't work that way in a simultaneous game. Ties are a coin flip. (Technically the production order is randomized between players every turn, so all coin flips on one particular turn go the same way, like if we tied for a religion tech on the same turn as the wonder.)

[SevenSpirits]

Copper city can work a grass forest instead of the copper on the turn of founding. I think that's better.

[novice]

Copper city can work a grass forest instead of the copper on the turn of founding. I think that's better.

Indeed. I remember looking for one in the sandbox without finding it.

[SevenSpirits]

Indeed. I remember looking for one in the sandbox without finding it.

Yup, there was the error where the one grass forest was plains, and the fact that the other grass forest was chopped on the first turn of city existence. Now both problems are moot!

[SleepingMoogle]

Now that we know that CFC researched BW, is it possible to make some sort of estimation based on the C&D and demos as to how fast they might be able to finish Stonehenge, if we make the assumption they're aiming for it?

[kjn]

I'm pretty sure CFC only has two forests in their capital BFC. I think they would hesitate to chop them due to health reasons, but lets assume they will use them.

That gives them 40 hammers of the 120 needed.

They still haven't revolted to Slavery, but with a worker whip they can convert foodhammers to overflow hammers, so lets say 35 to 40H per whip into a wonder.

That leaves 40H to slowbuild, and they can easily reach 8 to 10hpt in their capital. So they can easily finish Stonehenge within 10t: 1 turn revolt, 3t slowbuild @ 10hpt, 3t (whip on t3 at 28/60 or so) on a worker, will give:

Slowbuilt: 30H
Chops: 40H
Overflow: 40H
Natural build: 12H

So estimate a lower bound of 8t for CFC to get Stonehenge. I assume they have the corn, 2 3F-tiles and 2 4H-tiles here.

[Sullla]

If they build it in their capital, the short answer is "much faster than we can build Stonehenge."

For a more specific answer, they have been making 16 food / 9 production in their capital for quite some time. This is a size 5 capital working irrigated corn (6/0), farmed bananas (4/0), grassland hill mine (1/3), plains hill mine (0/4), and a floodplains cottage (3/0), plus the default center tile on a plains hill (2/2). Added together and we get their 16/9 figure.

Now CFC built a settler on T34 and settled their second city on T35. Since they only had one worker at the time, they almost certainly did another worker in the capital next, which would have taken 4t given their 15 foodhammers. That takes us up to T38. If they started another settler after the worker, it would take 7t to complete, and they will be settling around T46, basically the same time we plant our third city. This is the most likely outcome, because CFC didn't lower their food output at all in recent turns, and their capital would have grown to size 6 and into unhappiness if they kept running that much food. They are probably building their third settler in the capital right now.

* If they are building a settler case: Capital finishes settler T45. They should be able to swap their banana tile over to a grassland or plains hill mine, for roughly 12 or 13 production/turn. This would have them completing Stonehenge right around our T55 date even without chops. With chops, they would win for sure. We will have a good indication if they are doing this because their Production will go up on the graphs. This has not happened yet.

* If they went for Stonehenge over third settler case: At their current 9 production/turn rate, they could have started on T38. That gives them 17 turns to build the wonder before we chop/whip it out - they finish on T52. I find this somewhat unlikely, but if they chose this path then we have no chance. Ditto for any other team that chooses to rush Stonehenge over planting a third city.

Keep in mind that CFC is Spiritual and can revolt into Slavery without the Anarchy turn. Basically, if they are serious about chopping and whipping out a wonder, they can win the race fairly easily. Our own T55 date is not especially fast. There's an excellent chance that some team will get there first because they didn't care about expanding and screwing themselves over long term. But we shall see.