Dave's Not Throwing Away His Shot

[oledavy]

The defender has the advantage every step of the way. 

I'm curious exactly which mechanics account for this.  The only defender's advantages I see are that cities and encampments are immobile but strong ranged units that can be stacked with, that take reduced damage in the absence of siege weapons.  And maybe something with vision, defender might be able to plan better.  

Mobility seems to be even, both sides take damage every time you fight, there's no stacking units to force a unit to hit the worst enemy in a rock-paper-scissors.  

What am I missing?  There's got to be something fundamentally wrong with my understanding.  I thought you were going to steamroller Archduke too.

Or are encampments and cities themselves just that strong?  How much extra army do you need to account for a city?

I can hardly claim to be authoritative on this front, and I welcome counter-opinions or addendums, but from my vantage point the defender enjoys three primary advantages. 


1. Movement Rules

So first off, I believed ranged are "generally" better than melee, in that they can attack without taking damage in return. Second, because of movement rules regarding hills, forests, and rivers, a defending ranged unit will generally get a free shot in on a melee unit before the melee unit makes contact. Add to this that the ranged unit on a hill gets a defense bonus, and can heal in its own territory for 15 HP per turn while you can only heal for 5 HP. All this is to say that despite melee's strength advantage, if you're attacking ranged on defensive friendly terrain, that advantage has usually been nullified by the time you make contact. Horses are a way to overcome this, but the Argentinian Delta is an exceptionally hard region to move through with lots of hills and rivers that make horses little better than melee. Add to this that a human player will always focus fire to eliminate units, and you end up in a situation where the attacker will always be significantly cut down when attacking a ranged defender on good defensive terrain. 

Archduke's hand was further enhanced by having 4-move crossbows that allowed him to easily focus fire and overcome to mobility limitations of the region. 

2. Defensive Vision/Supply Lines

I can't overstate the importance of fighting with shorter supply lines and better vision. More often than not, both Archduke and I lost units because we didn't account for a unit in the fog that could hit us. I've been keeping tabs on his army the entire time, but you can't account for everything because of the turn delay in the domination counter updating, and the possibility of chopped mounted units coming along the enemy road network to hit you. 

In just this last war alone, I lost 2 units by being hit by units out of the fog, and Archduke's loss of the crossbow and his encampment was a result of a similar lack of vision. The defender is playing with near perfect information at all times, where the attacker is more often than not partially in the dark (at least until I start utilizing sentry settlers   ). This means that the attacker is significantly more likely to give up units to errors and make mistakes than the defender. 

3. Walled Cities/Encampments Are Just That Strong. 

Since they don't have promotions, they don't attack with the same punch of a ranged unit. But, it's a free attack, and allows you to shield another ranged unit. You have to account for a substantial bit of damage output every single turn you stay in range of an encampment city, and once you commit, you really need to keep going or that damage was absorbed for nought. 

The fact that a city has 200 strength, and gains back 20 every turn regardless of whether it shoots or not, means that after you take out the enemy army, you need 3-4 units (plus siege support/battering ram if it has walls) just to take the city center. 

When observation balloons and air power comes into play, I imagine cities will be a whole lot less difficult to take, but in the interim, cities and encampments are pretty tough nuts to crack. Now, granted, defending the city center is not the same as defending your districts, so while a ranged unit in a city is a strong defender for a long time, it doesn't prevent the enemy army from overruning the land. But, if you want to take fortified cities and encampments, you need a substantial force. 


That's my takeway at least, based on my experience this game. The only successful city captures we've seen so far this game were Archduke surprise attacks on the unfortified cities of Frankfurt and Garmisch while Singaboy's army was deployed against me. Against a defender who is fortified and ready, you need a substantial edge if you want to come away with territory - at least at this point in the game.

[Mardoc]

Hmm, interesting.  And on point 1, you can't use attacking ranged units to get the first strike because?  Does shooting cost movement and the terrain therefore makes you often pick between shooting and moving?

This seems to imply that an attacker wants to find a non-fortified spot to fight, even if the stakes aren't as high there.  Nibble around the edges until either the defender fights outside the shadow of their walls, or until you've weakened them enough that you can get that 'substantial edge'.  More like a MOO fight than a Civ4 fight.

[oledavy]

Hmm, interesting.  And on point 1, you can't use attacking ranged units to get the first strike because?  Does shooting cost movement and the terrain therefore makes you often pick between shooting and moving?

This seems to imply that an attacker wants to find a non-fortified spot to fight, even if the stakes aren't as high there.  Nibble around the edges until either the defender fights outside the shadow of their walls, or until you've weakened them enough that you can get that 'substantial edge'.  More like a MOO fight than a Civ4 fight.

Yes, at least where you need to attack into rough terrain. There was one spot I could move out and shoot east of Lafayette, but that location was easily focus-fired from multiple patches of rough terrain to the east.

I agree with you on the second point. Next time I fight Archduke, I've decided to go with a plan I started incubating in the final days of this conflict. We're just going to bypass the heavily contested delta region, leave enough troops to hold Lafayette against a counter-offensive, and make a push on his capital. 

My next TR is going to go to Mykenes to give me a road through the jungle to that end. 

That's still a long ways away though. In the interim, I'm continuing to move towards Woden. 

Turn 118



There's the Eureka for Replaceable Parts! (3 Muskets). 



And there's the Eureka for Guilds! (2 Markets). 

Alrighty. Alhambram rejected my deal. I hope he's not trying to wave me away from attacking Woden, but I'm grateful he didn't just accept and ruin my surprise. I'm going to feel very foolish if after the game I accidentally backed him into a corner. I have to imagine he wants to use his huge military to punish Woden's unchecked expansion though. 

Anyway, Archduke offered OB. 



It gets me to Woden faster, so I accepted. 

Meanwhile, Alhambram settled his 8th city. 



And I got eyes on Russian borders for the first time. 



Alright! Now I know definitively where everyone is. 

This turn, I surpassed Woden in science for the first time in awhile. 



Won't last long, and isn't as significant when you factor in his Dynastic Cycle, but it's comforting to know I'm keeping pace. 

Here's the Campus Responsible. 



As long as I keep Hattusa free, campuses will do a lot to pump up my science and keep me competitive. 

2 Turns to Merchant Republic!



I funneled overflow from the musket into a CH project. I'm debating build queues right now. I need builders and settlers sooner rather than later, but there's a good chance others have their eyes on Gustavus and Medici, and if I don't prioritize them appropriately, I'll miss out.

[oledavy]

Turn 119 

I uncharacteristically took no screenies this last turn. Not much happened worth noting. I finished Education, and Alhambram finished an amphitheater and immediately stocked it with 2 great works of writing, sending his culture into the stratosphere. He's definitely going to be one to watch going forward, and I'm considering more and more not allying with him and letting this DoF be the last one. I need to be able to fight the spread of his religion. 

So, while I have a moment, let's talk about my upcoming attack on Woden. If I'm counting right, my army will move adjacent to Woden's territory on t125. I estimate it will take 6-9 attacks to reduce the city center, and with that in mind, provided nothing goes awry, I can take the city on t128. 

So, let's talk about what I hope to accomplish here and conditions for an abort. 

So first off, in the fine tradition of the Second Korean War, this is nothing more than an opportunistic strike. I'm using my leftover armies from my war with Archduke to accomplish something during turns they would otherwise be doing nothing. Bringing down the game leader a peg is definitely the best thing I can think of to do with them. Big Thunder Mountain Railroad is hardly an important city, but it is still a Chinese city. I estimate I have about a coinflip chance of taking the city. So, here are all my if-then's for determining my course of action when I get eyes on the city center on t125.

If the city has no defenders, no walls, and 0-1 additional defenders come to its aid, I anticipate victory on the timeline listed above. 
If the city has 1 archer, no walls, and 0-1 additional defenders come to its aid, I anticipate victory on the timeline listed above. 
If the city has 1 crossbow/crouching tiger, no walls, and 0-1 additional defenders come to its its aid, I anticipate victory, but delayed by 1-2 turns.  
If the city has 1 archer, walls, and 0-1 additional defenders come to its aid, I anticipate victory, but delayed by 1-2 turns. 
If the city has a crossbow/crouching tiger, walls, and 0-1 additional defenders come to its aid, I anticipate being defeated. 
If it looks like more than 0-1 defenders come to the city's aid, I respond on a case-by-case basis depending on what the units are.

It would not take much to turn the city into being relatively impregnable. I think he has sensed the danger I might pose, as he stopped working on his granary and started walls this last turn. However, unless he has Limes, I don't see how he can finish them before I get there. He's probably making 6-8 hammers per turn at the moment, meaning they'll at best finish towards the end of my attack, and he'll only get a couple shots off with them at most versus being able to fire at me from the moment I appear. The city is also on a hill, behind hills, making an attack on it very difficult. This region of the world is sincerely miserable to fight in. 

However, I have lots of things going for me here. For one, it's extremely far from his core cities, it's even far from his nearest city, with reinforcing units only able to come along a winding mountain road. This is one reason I anticipate only dealing with 1 reinforcing unit at most. The second is Alhambram's army, which is still significantly larger than his. I imagine he's husbanding all his units close to his front with Alhambram right now, and will be reluctant to move them out, even if he's at peace with Alhambram at the time. If Alhambram was not sitting on the biggest army of the game as Woden's neighbor, I would not be making this move. 

Now, the biggest unknown in this is Alhambram. This attack was conceived to take advantage of their looming war to nab a low-hanging fruit from Woden. However....they're not at war yet....

I can only assume Alhambram has some master plan, but from here it just looks like he's allowing Woden to catch up in miitary. At least he crashed Woden's economy by taking Zanzibar. 

This introduces another layer of if-thens. 

If Alhambram declares war before I get there, and I think I can take the city, I declare war. 
If Alhambram declares war before I get there, and I don't think I can take the city, I declare war, but play conservatively and harass with the aim of distracting Woden from his primary front. 
If Alhambram is at peace when I get there, and I think I can take the city, I declare war, and try to blitz it before Woden can respond.
If Alhambram is at peace when I get there, and I don't think I can take the city, then I pack up and go home. 

I'm willing to lose 1-2 units to take the city. I would prefer to lose none obviously, but taking a tiny chunk out of Woden is worth a few cogs to me. 

If I take the city and Alhambram is at war with Woden, I keep it. 
If I take the city and Alhambram is at peace with Woden, I burn it. 

The worst case scenario as far as diplomacy goes is that Alhambram is at peace with Woden and I declare war. Woden has a larger army than I. However, distance and Alhambram's presence should forestall Woden marching his entire army all the way east to fight me.

Now, I can't gurantee Woden will be quick to make peace, but any forces he sends this far east in the event he's not in an existential struggle with Alhambram should be easily dealt with. 

So, 6 turns to go until I make my big decision. 


Alhambram will surely declare war on Woden in that time...surely....[braces self for disappointment].

[oledavy]

Turn 120 

Big turn for me, and I'm feeling a lot more confident about my chances in this game.  

Exploration in. 



This makes me the third to a 6 slot government, and only 5 turns later than the first. Alhambram adopted monarchy.



I'm debating if it would have been worthwhile for me to target Monarchy, with its abundance of military slots and the fact that its closer on the tree. On the flip side, I think +2 trade routes is a lot better than +2 housing for medieval walls, and it would have been a bit of a slog to it for me since I don't have a religion. With that in mind, it made perfect sense for Woden and Alhambram to target it. Merchant Republic can run 3 military slots at most to Monarchy's 4, but I don't think you often need more than three. Since MR has two wildcard slots, it has more flexibility. In sum, I think the card setup is better. Then again, Divine Right also has one of the best civics for the period behind it (+50% production on medieval/renaissance mounted units). 

I also made the nasty discovery that Merchant Republic obsoletes Urban Planning (+1 cogs in all cities). 

At any rate, I think most players in our Civ 6 MP games will want to target Monarchy over Merchant Republic, at least initially. However, this game, I was able to expedite my path to Merchant Republic due to getting the Eureka for Medieval Faires, and conversely would have had to research Theology and Divine Right in their entirety without a Eureka for either. Despite it being further into the tree, I got my medieval government about the same time as Woden and Alhambram, so I'll call that good for this game. 

Anyway, one last look at Classical Republic, which has served me so well...



And Hello Merchant Republic!



I spent about 15 minutes debating a few of these, I'll try to recapture a bit of those thought processes now. 

So, Strategos, Caravansaries, and Merchant Confederation were all obvious choices. 

Holy shit, I forgot about Aesthetics, or didn't understand how good it is for Greece. I get an automatic +2 adjacency for every Acropolis. Right now, that Civic is giving me +4 culture per turn. I think I'm going to finish my next 3 Acropolises as quickly as possible, and with Aesthetics, each one will give me a base +4 culture! I'm looking at being able to rake in a ton of culture utilizing the combo of Acropolises and Aesthetics. I can't believe I didn't think of it sooner. 

But wait, there's more. Natural Philosophy was tempting. +3 science per turn at present. However, then I thought about Trade Confederation. I have one international trade route at present, am sending one to Mykenes in the coming turns and another to Carthage. That's +3 Culture +3 science right there! I can also send my seventh one abroad if I so desire. It's helpful that my neighbors are all building commercial hubs, which makes international trade routes a lot more profitable, and the gold is super nice right now to rebuild my stockpile. So, Trade Confederation it is. 

I almost considered doing the thing I planned to do with Veterancy right now, and banging out an encampment in Hamilton. However, of greater priority out of that city are traders, builders, settlers, and commercial hub projects. The encampment can wait until another day. Conscription it is. 

Finally, I was debating between Natural Philosophy again and Revelation to kickstart my religion plan. I decided on the latter, as I will have limited opportunities to get Great Prophet points. I don't know how long I can run this Civic, so it makes sense to get some points in now. I have not fully committed to pursuing religion at this point, but I was willing to hedge for now and leave myself the option. 

Anyway, here's my end of turn overview, where you can see how much these civic swaps souped up my economy. 



Alhambram is making 40 gold per turn with his religion powered economy, but I'm at 32!

Finally, my culture and science are now both on par with Woden. Here's the break down. 

Me: 51.9 (SPT), 24 (Techs), 39.1 (CPT), 18(Civics)
Woden: 52.9 (SPT), 24 (Techs), 36.4 (CPT), 18 (Civics)
Alhambram: 48.7 (SPT), 22 (Techs), 48.9 (CPT), 18 Civics)
Archduke: 34.1 (SPT), 19 (Techs), 20.1 (CPT), 14 (Civics)
Singaboy: 27.5 (SPT), 18 (Techs), 20 (CPT), 14 (Civics)

Woden, Alhambram and I are all neck and neck, with Alhambram behind in tech but ahead on cultural production due to his Great Writers. His culture production will be something to watch in the coming turns, but at least his high numbers are making it extremely unlikely for Woden to win a cultural victory. 

Singaboy and Archduke are starting to get left in the dust. Eventually, I will have a full generation of military tech over both of them at this rate. 

One minor great thing about Exploration, +1 food on pastures!



This allows me to work the encampment full time instead of swapping between it and the grassland farm as I had been doing. 

Finally, time to build a road to Archduke: 



Still no war between Alhambram and Woden though  

[oledavy]

On further thought, I'm really beginning to believe I shouldn't bother with religion this late. The start up costs are just too high for too little payout. Moreover, due to how expensive missionaries are by this point in the game, I don't think it will be strong enough to counter Alhambram. 

If that is the case and I do opt to not go for a religion, I'm going to earn 8 worthless GP points over the next 4 turns when I could have had 12 science  

Oh well, better to not fall for the sunk cost fallacy and get out now if I'm going to get out. Still, I just don't know. I'm going to be really frustrated if Alhambram wins this game via religious victory, and the small but not inconsiderable chance he may swing that is enough to make founding a religion worth considering. However, reacting to a scenario that has a low chance of happening would be a foolish way to spend the ~500 cogs it would cost to kick start my religion.

[oledavy]

Turns 122-123

Very boring t122, just pre-building workers at present. 

Then this happened on t123. 



Well, the gig is up. There goes the coinflip chance I had of taking Mountain Railroad. However, I can still distract Chinese forces in the event Alhambram wants to kick this thing off. So, I continued moving towards Woden for another turn, and gave the Russians one last chance. 



If he doesn't accept, I can only presume he doesn't intend to attack Woden, and I will turn my forces around and head back to serve as Apostle blockers. 

I hope he does, but I have a feeling in my gut. He's not going to, if he was, he would have done it by now. I understand he's probably pinning everything on a religious victory, and thinks he can get another DoF to pull it off. It may work out. However, it stands to reason that Woden is aware of Alhambram's plan as well. If he doesn't think he can prevent his religion from being quashed, he won't sign a DoF with Alhambram so he can go to war and kill religious units if necessary. If he does think he can, he'll sign his DoF. Either way, Woden is in the drivers seat, and I'm more inclined to trust his reading. Meanwhile, Alhambram is willing to allow his opponent to skate on by with a 300 power deficit and do a stupid amount of expansion. It may be he's so focused on the religious victory he thinks the other traditional markers for a strong civ are immaterial, but I think there is great reason to be concerned. 

I know the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence, and I'm sure Singaboy or Archduke would have killed for my start. I would have killed for Woden's though. Isolated, easy fronts to defend, and Alhambram as a neighbor. Nothing to do but keep soldiering on, but damn it's frustrating. And for the record, I'm not frustrated because Alhambram isn't helping me win. As far as I can see, this war would benefit him more than I, but neither of us stand a great chance of winning if Woden is able to persist in his farming. 

Maybe he'll surprise me and declare war. 

I doubt it though. I think the short era of me partnering with Alhambram is over. 

Anyway, t145 will be here before we know it. I'm right now having to fight every time I go into the game not to queue up more districts, as they're a lot more fun to build. But barring 1-2 acropolises I might slot in because they're cheap, the next 20 turns are going to be about putting the pedal to the metal. 

So, here's what I'm building: 

5 Builders
4 Settlers
Enough Merchant Projects to get me Medici
Enough Encampment Projects to get me Adolphus
1 Trader
0-2 Acropolises, depending on how many hammers are available

In the interim, I'm beelining the tech that grants field cannons. After I build all of the above, I'm doing nothing but spamming out muskets and crossbows. At 40 gold per turn currently, I'll have more than enough to upgrade some crossbows to field cannons - Need to figure out the price on that. 

So, about 10 more turns of economic builds, then I'm going to build the biggest army on this pangaea and once and for all destroy Archduke. If Woden or Alhambram hasn't teched themselves into an uncatchable position by then, I will have a chance to win. I think attacking with a tech edge, a great general, and overwhelming force, might finally clinch this for me and allow me to break out of the eastern diplomatic quandry. 

I'm almost positive Archduke is gearing up to attack Singaboy - something Singaboy has had plenty of time to prepare for (fingers crossed). Here's hoping they beat each other to a bloody pulp, then I swoop in and feed of the carcasses.

[oledavy]

Turn 123



....

Okay Alhambram, do your thing. He knows I'm serious in my war offer due to his scout, and while the best moment re: his strength vs. Woden's has passed, he's still ~220 power ahead. But, it seems he has pinned all his hopes on getting a religious win.

I already complained about his decision quite a bit in my last post, so I won't repeat myself too much here. I think this is a poor decision that will do nothing but reduce his chances of winning, but I guess he sees things differently. I will be sincerely impressed if Alhambram pulls off a religious win, and more power to him for trying an interesting game play pattern and testing out Lavras. However, if I were to bet on this, I think its significantly more likely he does not get the religious win than he does - and this moment was probably the best chance to bring Woden down (Right after Woden added a bunch of new cities, when he has a military advantage, etc.). 

Still, cossacks aren't too far off...

Better to not count on him ever going to war with Woden though.

Alright, closer to home: 



Things continue apace. Big civic swap next turn. 

I"m mentally preparing myself for Woden to snatch Medici from me. He probably has a couple commercial projects on the way, but most importantly, has Oracle and faith and can patronize the merchant - much like he did for the first GE. 

I desperately need a GM though, for two Inspirations (Humanism and Mercantililsm). For what it's worth, I actually like all the Industrial GM's a lot more, Adam Smith especially would be amazing to land. They'll just be 420 versus 240 

At any rate, I still think I can hit one before I start wasting culture on Humanism/Mercantilism beyond the halfway point. I just probably can't beeline. Who knows though, maybe Woden doesn't land Medici and I get to have my cake and eat it. At least I probably won't have much competition for Gustavus by comparison. 

I think I might try to get an alliance with Woden. You both need Civil Service to sign it iirc, and Singaboy probably won't have it for awhile. Furthermore, by the time he does, I might want to try and eat him. Alhambram and Archduke are out for obvious reasons - unless an alliance doesn't extend the period of a DoF. So....Woden.

I'll offer him a DoF next turn.

[oledavy]

Turn 124

Okay, let's get this show on the road. 



Metal Casting In. 



Civil Service in. 

Woden also finished a Civic and Tech last turn. 

Also of note, Alhambram got Mahabouti. That's going to be rough for Woden to deal with it, but he doesn't seem too scared. 



Yep, that's a third DoF. 90 turns of nonstop peace in the west. I guess Woden feels confident he can keep Alhambram's religion contained. At least it's not my problem, or not entirely. 

I have 17 turns left until I can declare on Alhambram. I'm currently redeploying my army around Lafayette and Schuyler. I expect he's about to start arriving with apostles and missionaries, and I want to be able to block them from converting my cities to the best of my ability, and generally be a gigantic pain with my units, until I can kill them. Hopefully they don't fully convert my civ before our DoF is over. I'm going to have to keep an eye out for missionaries entering my lands constantly this game. 

Woden might be inclinded to come after me with his large army, but I'm still a long ways away, so far that he would likely not get his army home by the time his DoF runs out with Alhambram. With that in mind, sending at me would effectively be the same as having to build a completely new one to oppose Alhambram on t154. He also might want to keep a lot of units home so he can likewise surround his cities with military and prevent them from being converted. If he refuses and sends something my way, however, I expect I'll be just fine. Lafayette is very defensible from the west. 

Anyway, I offered him a DoF. 



If he accepts, I'll offer him an alliance next turn. 

Now the question is, what does Alhambram do with that 1,000 strength army of his? I have to imagine he goes after Archduke. If he does, his timing will be very good (provided Archduke is indeed about to attack Singaboy, which feels very likely at this point). 

Either way, Archduke went ahead and upgraded a knight this turn. 



Really hoping Singaboy is more prepared this time. 

My DoF with Singaboy runs out on t130, and I spent a while debating if I wanted to turn my army around to make another pass at Seoul. After a little deliberation, I decided against it. Right now I'm expanding and getting ready for a t145 attack, and my current forces would need reinforcing to be able to guarantee Seoul. If I attack him, I won't have units on hand to interdict Alhambram's apostles/missionaries as well. 

Finally, if I am indeed correct and war is about to break out down there, I want Singaboy to give it everything he's got and not fold. Seoul is just a size 5 city, and Singaboy himself poses little threat to me or Hattusa at this point With Archduke on this door. 

With all that being said, I'll be sitting out this current war and preparing to pounce in the aftermath of the struggle. The main questions are: does Singaboy hold off Archduke's super-buffed and state of the art army? And does Alhambram jump on and take some Greek cities? 

In other international news, I am definitely giving up on getting the second GM. 



Woden just finished a CH project. I expect he has at least one more incoming, and then has faith to patronize Medici (unless he needs the faith to fight Alhambram...)

At any rate, the industrial GM will be 545 initially, but then I will hit the industrial era by researching balliastics, it will cost 420. I have about ~30-35 turns to get that many GM points. It will require a number of projects, and running the GM card, but I should be able to make it happen. 

This slower pace allows me to not feel quite as conflicted, as I was having to debate between workers/settlers and CH projects in Hamilton up to now. 

I'm pretty excited to get a spy soon btw, I'm interested in seeing how they influence a game against other players. I imagine they make a space race win near impossible....

My knight got eyes on Woden's other border city before heading back to defend ourselves from the Russian pagans. 



Alright, time for a civic swap: 



Aesthetics and Revelation (  ) out, Serfdom and Meritocracy in. My culture per turn went up by a net 4. 

On a side note, I can't wait to finish 3 more acropolises and Lafayette's campus, and run Aesthetics and Meritocracy together for a whopping 24 culture. 

I'm coming to really like acropolises, as they're extremely useful with the right civics, and they help me get to that all important 2 districts per city for civic at humanism (I don't recall the name, just that it gives +1 amenities in each city with 2 districts). Unique districts really are just amazing, even if they replace a nominally kinda shitty district. 

Alhambram probably adopted Meritocracy last turn as well, as his culture went up by quite a bit. 

Got my 3rd international TR going. 



This nets me the shown benefit, plus an envoy in Carthage (which gives me another GPT with Trade Confederation). 

This also gives me a much needed road connecting Hong Kong and Lafayette. The last internal road I want is one between Lafayette and Hamilton, which my next trader will be responsible for running. 

The Crossbow to Field Cannon upgrade is 115 gold with Professional Army. I want to be able to get somewhere between 6-10 field cannons in time for the war. Fortunately, at 40 GPT, I should easily have at least enough to do 6 upgrades when the time comes. 

Things at the end of the turn: 



Well, it certainly has been an interesting period diplomatically, to say the least. Things could be worse, my neighbors are no longer in a position to effectively dogpile me. I just now have two more distant players to overcome who cannot be counted upon to fight each other.

[oledavy]

Turn 125

Oh boy.....I have a lot to say this turn, but let's get through the events of the turn itself first. 



Got the alliance with Woden, revealing to me just how screwed we all are. At least I have the diplomatic service Inspiration. 

In the north, I got the first barb sword for a cool 18 culture: 



This in turn triggered the inspiration for square rigging. 



Woden's map revealed I have pearls in the north, as I hoped for. 



I really need the amenities, and will be trying to fish them sooner rather than later. 



I do have 4 envoys in Carthage at present to the next bests' 2. However, I'm really worried that someone may steal away my suzerainity and deny me my second source of niter. That would make my approaching build up very difficult. Still, I should probably be fine for a little while - long enough to start a musket in every city at least. 

Anyway, here's my civ at the end of the turn. 



Okay, that was the turn report. 

Now I'm going to vent. I recognize that lurkers don't always like reading this, so feel free to stop reading if you're not interested in reading me complain. But I have nowhere else to talk about this game, and this turn and seeing all of Woden's land was the most rage-inducing thing I have encountered yet this game. I'm going to break down in painstaking detail how many ways I'm screwed, and how I think Alhambram's decision to resign with Woden was easily the dumbest decision of the game. 

Last chance. 

Okay. 

So first off, Woden is ahead in almost every meaningful category except for total speciality districts constructed, and trade routes running. I have the complete numbers of everything you might be interested in knowing, but I don't feel like formatting them. Here are the two you need to know. 

Woden has 58 population, I have 47. He's doubled his lead in pop over the last half dozen turns, a factor of him having 12 cities to my 7 for more total housing. 
Woden has 44 tile improvements to my 25. Moreover, while I am getting out 25 builder charges in the coming turns, he has 14+ charges in builders out at this moment alone. 

While I am about to add 4 new cities, it will still leave me below his total of 12. Moreover, they won't be settled for ~15 turns. Finally, after those four, I have 3 very crappy backfill cities I can expand to, but that's it. Meanwhile, Woden has: 



He can cram in 4 more good quality coastal cities. This means that when I finish expanding into all the decent cities around me, he'll be up 5 cities total. I'm probably never going to close the population gap between us this game, short of him losing cities. The head start is too much. 

The only reason I am competitive in science at the moment is because of the 10 science per turn I get from Hattusa. That can always be taken away from me though, by someone saving up 5 envoys, or Singaboy attacking the city. This makes my strong tech rate very fragile, and my long-term position weaker - especially when you factor in dynastic cycle. 

Basically, the only way I can even keep pace with Woden is through taking Archduke's cities. 

But wait, there's more, let's say I want to attack Woden: 



This is the center of the map. It's basically impossible for me to ever attack Woden through this mountainous region. At best, I'll just run over speedbump cities while he prepares to defend Space Mountain. A land war to bring down Woden is out of the question, not without Alhambram. 

Side note: notice Alhambram's apostle on his way to me or Singaboy in the lower part of the frame. 

Moreover, his coastline to the north is mostly cliffs. 

The only spot I can put down a lot of troops coming overseas is here: 



Really out of the way. 

Also, that's a pretty crappy Petra location, but it cost about 1 builder for him, so eh. Wish I could have landed it in Hong Kong...

So, also there's this: 



How Woden met Toronto and Vilnius first is beyond me. Alhambram must have really screwed the pooch on scouting. This just adds to my anger at Alhambram, but more on that in a second. 

Finally, Main Street. 



As expected, note all the units around it to protect his religion. 

Woden has 5 luxuries in his lands to my 4 (the 4th being a very distant pearls). He also has 2 partners he can trade resource with dependably, and Alhambram in the interim. I can't trade with Woden because he's winning. I can't trade with Alhambram because I need to go to war with him if necessary to kill his apostles/missionaries. I can't trade with Singaboy because he doesn't have anything I don't have and undoubtedly has eyes on Hattusa. I can't trade with Archduke because I want to kill him. 

I'm completely screwed on amenities, to top it all off. 

So, here's the rub. If the game continues as is, I can't win. 

Woden wins, I give it like 80% odds, his position is unassailable at present, and he gets 30 turns more to do nothing but build - exactly what China wants to do. 

Here are the other two scenarios: 

1. Alhambram wins a religious victory (I give it about 5% if I'm being real). If I'm wrong, this will obviously seem very foolish, but I don't see how he can possibly pull it off. 
2. I absorb Archduke/Singaboy, and Alhambram attacks Woden with cossacks on t153, giving me a chance to take this game back. In the interim though, I'm running in an increasingly fragile 3rd place. 

And yet all of this could have been avoided. Let's go back to that picture of the Alhambram/Woden border region. 



So, not too long ago, right before the expiration of their DoF, Alhambram overran Zanzibar with a massive force of knights. He crashed Woden's economy, leaving him no gold to upgrade, and was up 300 power. It wouldn't matter if Woden was equal in power though, Zanzibar is a salient that leads right up to Woden's capital. That front is completely impossible for the Chinese to defend, even at equal military strength, and Alhambram had the power advantage. 

There's no way Woden would give up his capital, so Archduke could have divided his army into an attacking force and a smaller holding force to defend Zanzibar, and done one of two things: 

1. Taken Jungle Cruiser, attacking from the rear so he didn't have to deal with the encampment. 
2. Taken Space Mountain, and then been able to reduce and take the rest of Woden's eastern holdings at his leisure. (Seven Dwarves, Big Mountain, Spash Mountain).

He didn't have to worry about Archduke, because Archduke was DoF'd, and even if her refused to resign, Alhambram has a tiny front with him that can be held by a unit or too in the unlikely scenario Archduke attacks. 

BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE. 

Alhambram's weakest category is science. Guess what Space Mountain has? A campus with a three adjacency bonus and a library. If he had taken that city, which he certainly could have done, He would have surpassed both me and Woden in tech.  

BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE. 

Alhambram needs Great Work of Writing Slots, he's currently sitting on a charge on his last GW. Guess what Space Mountain has. The Great Library! There, you saved hammers on an amphitheater. All of this doesn't even take into account the pop in the city, or the additional cities Archduke might take. 

Even if he didn't want to push beyond Space Mountain/Jungle Cruiser, he could have pillaged the heck out of Woden's land for tons of resources. 

BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE. 

Here's what Woden has now. And to be clear, I know Alhambram wouldn't know all of this, but I also know a number of these units where not available 10 turns ago and that Alhambram had some idea of the composition of Woden's military due to their long shared border and missionaries granting vision. 

5 Crouching Tigers
3 Crossbows
1 Knight
2 Swords
3 Horses
3 Archers
3 Warriors
1 Battering Ram. 

About 40% of Woden's strength is tied up in out of date near-useless or useless units that he couldn't upgrade in time to fight Alhambram due to his still ongoing lack of gold.  

So, I'm going to sum this up as succinctly as I can. Alhambram had an opportunity to attack the game leader, at no or little risk, with a significantly larger army. His position was such that he was guaranteed at least one city, and could prosecute the war however he saw fit. Woden's army would not have been able to stop him from taking Space Mountain or Jungle Cruise if it came to a hot war. Finally, Alhambram could have rectified his one economic weakness by going to war and put himself in the driver's seat of this game. 

BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE. 

Add to this, the background information that I was offering Alhambram a joint war! Moreover, Alhambram KNEW I was serious, that he would he an additional 250 power attacking Woden on another front, to stretch him even thinner. It's not even like I would have been the primary beneficiary of this war, Alhambram would have made out like a bandit and would be in a commanding position. His religious granted him a gold advantage, which he turned into a massive military advantage. That was something he could have used to bring down his only major rival to win the game. Does he really think his economy will be in better shape relative to Woden in 30 turns? I have to imagine not. Woden just conquered or added 5 cities! Does Alhambram have room for that many more? He's slowly falling behind in tech. This was possibly the best chance he had to attack Woden. One could argue he played the previous DoF masterfully, and was set up to take the lead in the game much to Woden's surprise. 

And with all this potential, all this possibility, he chose to resign a DoF, throw away the best chance anyone has had yet to bring Woden down, refuse to strengthen his economic position, and continue to purse his religious victory. And yep, those Knights will be meat for Field Cannons in 30 turns and can't upgrade until we get to tanks, so that's a huge military edge flushed down the drain.

But Woden can't kill his missionaries or apostles for the next 30 turns or whatever, so sure I guess, that is worth it. 

I think this was the defining decision of the game, and it just kills me that my last good chance to win has evaporated before my eyes, despite my efforts to coax Alhambram into war, because Alhambram can't see what's obvious to anyone who can look at the map and demogs. 

Just incredible.