[PB25-SPOILERS] The Lunacy of the Reign of HAK Continues

[HitAnyKey]

GRRRRRRRR!!!!!! At least it wasn't my Axe that is near 10XP. But this one did have the Shock promo....and now he's dead.....and at 94% odds of winning too.


Luckily I still had that archer down there to clean up the mess. Going to finish the Axe in Happy for sure now (before the Workboat) and also do an Axe in Sore before building Walls after that. Moved the Chariot back to hang out around Stressed, so he is within range of anything that might show up along that southern border...though if it's another Spear that shows up, he won't be able to help. But based on my visibility right now, I think either of the upcoming axes should get produced and be available to reach any spear that might appear.

And because I was a bit distracted with my travels and such this weekend, I didn't keep a real good record of what I did with regards to what tiles various cities were working, etc. So it might take a bit for me to rebuild and figure out a new sandbox. Might try to get something done to rebuild the sandbox tomorrow.

[MindyMcCready]

Hi HAK, I hope you had a good weekend, I'll begin with the small questions first:

1. Why are you building a monument in a city that you've got pencilled in for having a barracks as its very next build? Hopefully, that's not still the state of things.

2. Why are we building a library in Happy? This library represents the following opportunity costs:
-2 axes and an archer,....you know those things that we're supposed to have down in Sore, but you keep complaining about barbarians preventing you from getting them there.
-A settler which could make the difference between Borsche (and GJ,...hah!) from settling on our continent.
-3 chariots that we need for kicking GJ off our landmass
I think that you need to provide a rationale for this move,...how much BPT are you gaining by doing this at break-even or whatever. What's the breakeven point where the library recovers it's cost? How is that better than the opportunity costs? You're not justifying this for me,...but to yourself to check the rationality of your moves.

3. HAK we are not building the Hanging Gardens. I'm about to scream seeing this.
-Let's say we have 8 cities all gaining +1 pop. Due to happy and/or tile improvement limitations we whip away all the pop gaining 8 x 30H = 240H. The Hanging Gardens costs what 300H? Plus a useless aqueduct that costs 100H while we're already getting the Expansive health bonus? Why on earth would a civ in our position, need that?

For your own benefit, please provide a justification to yourself of the costs/benefits of doing this kind of move. Once you do this, I think that you'll conclude for yourself that 3, no 4 settlers or 11 axes would come in much more useful than whatever value you are currently seeing in the HG.

For every build in every city you need to ask yourself if it's producing a rate of return



Ok, the larger items:

I can't get a single Axe over there yet,...

When I read this I see the equivalent statement, "might as well abaondon the city right now". We have to fix this, however its done.

-Sore having an axe before walls,....honestly, you're dangling that city in front of Grimace. He's got what, 59% chance of winning vs a *CG1* archer (which ours probably isn't) with his G3 Gallic warriors? Where's the disincentive to attack? And when you put an axe in there he's still got what 38% chance of losing (*IF we have full fortify)? Grimace is probably still thinking,...yep, still good odds. Ripe for the taking.
-Now if you build the walls, he's going to suddenly see those measly 25H archers having 37% chance of killing his superswords vs 27% chance of him killing the archer. A less than even match unless he can double our numbers,..and at only 25H he's unlikely to be able to do that,,...and of course he won't know how many axes we have just around the corner,...so he'll think "ugggghhhh" if the archers can stop the superswords then axes will probably eat them for lunch. At that point, he mentally gives up the game and resigns himself to just hitting end turn or goes and finds some ambition elsewhere like the islands or Retep or whatever.

This is a mental game of encouragements/discouragement to stay out of this very unprofitable war. You need to rectify this situation immediately. Get Walls ASAP and I mean ASAP-ASAP and get an axe in their ASAP-ASAP. We need Grimace to see that his best, expensive unit has a 9% chance of victory against our axe and that we're expecting him. The longer you wait, the more swords that he's going to build and the more he's then committed to his path due to few options. You can ignore all of my shrillness if we know that Grimace doesn't have IW yet. If we're unsure,...please do whatever it takes to discourage Grimace becuase whatever the cost it will be much lower than a bloodbath on both sides.

Next Big Ticket item: That gawd-damn city plant of GJ,......I am disappointed. I thought that with his city count he's arguably in 2nd place and, as a civ that's containing Master Commodore, we were natural allies against our common long-term problem. But noooooooo,...he had to make himself our short-term problem. And THEN,...HE TAKES OUR CORN. GGGGGGGGGGGJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ!!!!!!

Like seriously, doesn't he know that planting 1 tile away is no security for either of us? I might have forgiven the move if it wasn't so gawd-damn close and stealing our food! But as it stands that city is a continental invasion + a food steal + a military threat. Well, I think that we should find out if he's got the military to back up his bluster. The only question is now or later.

What's his military like? He's got a lot of shared borders so my guess is that he's not got enough to protect that city.

Looks like I beat GJ out to settling in this area by a single turn. I'm betting he was going to settle where his Axe/Settler is right now.

This is probably incorrect. Given that he's on flatland his settler could have easily settled in the same turn. He was trying to go further inland. This is every bit of a screw you that we gave to Grimace and we should treat it as such. Early game, we were relying on low map information to veil our slight to Grimace,....GJ is doing this with full map info in all likelihood.

Honestly, if it weren't for having the game leader next to us as well as a pissed off Grimae, I'd really want to go raze his island city in revenge after razing that corn-grabbing slight.

So what I really, really want to do is send the chariot + the defensive axe + maybe one more chariot immeidately in that direction. Time is of the essence since whatever galley dropped those units off isn't likely to get reinforcements there so quickly. If we can't get a second chariot then we should at least test him with the chariot that we have.


Next ITEM: Barb City, YES! We'll have to wait until it hits Size2 but it's in a good spot for us.

Guess I should just stop simming...I get my hopes up for a plan, spending hours working on the sim, and then it all falls apart. LOL

SIMs are made to be broken but they still provide value. For example, when I did that SIM (that I never posted because it was already redundant) I produced 4 settlers by T78,...but I misdirected my workers and I only knew that because of the SIM. My second SIM I never ran but the important lesson of deploying the workers in a different manner was already learnt.

So, try not to do these SIM as a set in stone plan, since you'll only be disappointed with the effort, but instead as insight into what you should look for in doing better.

I'm very interested in discussing what we can do to boot GJ off our landbass.

[MindyMcCready]

What is this HAK?

Simple back of the envelope with whip:
1F+50% + 3H = 4.5FH
vs
3F +50% = 4.5FH

Do we have a good reason for having equivalent production while giving up a significant portion of our empire's commerce?

-We're desperate for military given our external threats.
-Library is a pretty hard sell given our external threats and gains say 8 commerce x 25% = 2 BPT at max science? So maybe 1 bpt at break even?
-Settlers are needed desperately for output and strategic reasons. Happy could be producing reasonable commerece while making our future cities. We're giving up 4 cpt to gain 1 bpt earlier and not gain an additional high-food city.

Respond to this only if you have enough time. I'm not really looking for a response so much as an improvement in your play if you legitimately don't have a solid reason for this play.

[HitAnyKey]

Yikes, you really do like long multi-stage posts with quotes. Tough to do a quote reply to your statements in a single post of my own, so I'll just do a stream of thoughts and replies via multiple posts.

First a few quick points.
1. I had built the Monument in Stressed so that it will get it's border expansions so that I can improve those Cows such that when I get the city settled in the south, it will immediately be able to use them (since the Cows would be 2nd ring for that city).
2. Happy already has it's Library. That was done 4 turns ago. Did that for a few reasons. It needs it's border expansions to access it's other Crabs and get borders onto the GH which is between it and Anxious so that either city could use that once mined. And with the Gold tile, that's good commerce to pump through a Library. Also, with the two Crabs this city will be a good Scientist Specialist city. It will be having an Axe completed next turn, and then will built the WB for the Crabs. Don't know yet what to build after that.
3. That HG sim was just something I tried out for that sim awhile back. As much as I'd like it (both for the Pop boom, and Great Engineer points), I already basically ruled it out due to all the other situations that presented since then.

Basically I have a little habit that I fall into that I need to try to break myself of. I pretty much try to get a Library in a city as soon as I can. Not sure if I have a great rationale for it, so when I need something to build while getting a city to grow, I tend to fall back on Library. I also tend to try to always build a Barracks before I have a city build any units. And the other thing....from my earlier sim, now you can see why I have a bit of a problem of always wanting to try to get a Wonder built.

Stressed is completing it's Monument next turn. I was going to have it start on a Barracks, but I'll have it start on either an Axe or Chariot instead. Was already leaning that way.

The reason I was going to complete the Axe in Sore first (it would be done 2 turns from now) is because my other Axe in the region died stupidly against that Barb. So wanted another Axe ASAP. Walls would be 5 after that. The city also grows in 2 turns and next turn the Marble Quarry will be done.

I've switched Hungry to a Settler, which will be done in 7 turns. Was already debating about doing that since the city is currently at it's Happy cap for the next 10 turns.

I'll reply regarding GJ in the next post.

[HitAnyKey]

Simple back of the envelope with whip:
1F+50% + 3H = 4.5FH
vs
3F +50% = 4.5FH

Can you explain what you are referring to with these calculations? I don't know what these +50% things are that you are talking about. Are these calculations for making a settler or for the making of something else?

Also, regarding the switching that city to Settler right now. I'm looking at the screen and if I do so there are two options:
Work all 3 Lake tiles and 1 Mine: 15hpt, 10gpt
Work 2 Lake tiles and 2 Mine: 16hpt, 8gpt
Both display finishing the Settler in 7 turns. Not sure at which point I'd be able to efficiently whip the Settler, or if I just slow build it. If I do slow build it, the second option would have extra overflow into whatever the next build would be (maybe another Worker to nab the bonus). Anyway, would like your opinion on which set of tiles might be best for building this Settler. I'm almost leaning towards the 3 Lake, for the extra commerce...so we can get some of these needed techs quicker and just not worry about some extra hammers for the next build.
But if the 2 Lake/2Mine would give a better whipping option, that might be something to consider.

[HitAnyKey]

Ok, the GJ update comes in this post.
He moved his Axe out of his city and towards me. No idea what he's planning, but because of that I pulled the worker I have put onto the hill 1N of Anxious back to the Cows (so both workers are currently on the cows). If his galley is anywhere in the area with a unit on it, he could move his axe next to my city, see I only have one unit there and then unload another unit to capture my worker knowing I couldn't do anything about it because then his axe would take the city. So I also sent my chariot that way as well. Really wish I had sent it towards him last turn (rather than over towards Grimace) because then it would actually be in position already to kill that Axe if it steps inside my borders. Oh well.



Anyway, he is still yet to play this turn. So we'll have to wait and see if he actually moves in the Axe. If he does, then two turns later (if he doesn't retreat his axe upon seeing my shock promotion axe in the city), I'll be able to move my chariot to threaten his city.
The Axe out of Happy, however, needs to head south to keep me protected from the barbs.
Oh, I also switched Anxious to Chariot so that when it grows in 3 turns I can whip the Chariot if need be. I was hoping to keep building the Granary so I could whip that...but with his city plant, I suppose that's not the best idea anymore.

[HitAnyKey]

On the topic of Grimace, I'll be able to see his research in 2 turns. And then I'll just have to keep adjusting EPs to make sure I never lose that.

Should I have Adventurous stop building it's Granary and switch it to something military? It's going to be a slow growing city for awhile anyway, so maybe having a Granary in it just won't get as much usefulness as building some military. Need more Archers for MP and general defense. So a few simple Archers from that city might be best. The city grows in 4 turns and is only putting out 4hpt right now (working the Horses). Other than being the city that got us the two luxuries, it's kind of a dud for awhile.

[MindyMcCready]

Yikes, you really do like long multi-stage posts with quotes. Tough to do a quote reply to your statements in a single post of my own, so I'll just do a stream of thoughts and replies via multiple posts.

Yeah sorry guy,...just catching up from the weekend.

You can just post the "[/qu-ote]" tag to break the quote. Quote the post start + the reply start and then 2 end quotes should get you what I think you're wanting.

2. Happy already has it's Library.

Sorry I meant Hungry.

Basically I have a little habit that I fall into that I need to try to break myself of. I pretty much try to get a Library in a city as soon as I can. Not sure if I have a great rationale for it, so when I need something to build while getting a city to grow, I tend to fall back on Library. I also tend to try to always build a Barracks before I have a city build any units.

These are good defaults as a rule of thumb (after Granary of course), but we're in a bit of a race right now.

Stressed is completing it's Monument next turn. I was going to have it start on a Barracks, but I'll have it start on either an Axe or Chariot instead. Was already leaning that way.

For the axe + walls the C1 makes very little difference. A 9.2% vs 10.8% chance of the G3 winning. Volume matters.

The reason I was going to complete the Axe in Sore first (it would be done 2 turns from now) is because my other Axe in the region died stupidly against that Barb. So wanted another Axe ASAP. Walls would be 5 after that. The city also grows in 2 turns and next turn the Marble Quarry will be done.

How's the power graphs,...a lot of my freaking out is because I haven't seen them and start to imagine the worst. Both GJ and Grimace are most interesting right now.

[HitAnyKey]

For the axe + walls the C1 makes very little difference. A 9.2% vs 10.8% chance of the G3 winning. Volume matters.

How's the power graphs,...a lot of my freaking out is because I haven't seen them and start to imagine the worst. Both GJ and Grimace are most interesting right now.

I've already switched Stressed over to Axe after the Monument completes this turn. Or should I go with another Chariot from here?

I've been putting 100% EPs into Grimace to get his research. I'll put bits into GJ as soon as I get (and can hold) Grimace's research. Here's the current Power graphs & Demos. Yes, we're currently hurting in power/soldiers (partly because I just lost that damn Axe). I know that, which started my panic mode as well when I realized it. Next turn we get the Axe from Happy, then Sore makes it's Axe the turn after that. I'll switch every other city to military (except Sleepy to finish it's Library in 2 turns....btw it's now working 2 cottages, and Hungry which is now building a Settler)






FYI, when I turn research back on we'll have Math completed in 3 turns. Just need this turn of getting more gold.
Once Math is done, I'll be able to have the worker up by Hungry put a chop into the Settler so that may shave a turn off it's completion.

[MindyMcCready]

Oh, I also switched Anxious to Chariot so that when it grows in 3 turns I can whip the Chariot if need be. I was hoping to keep building the Granary so I could whip that...but with his city plant, I suppose that's not the best idea anymore.

Whatever we plan to do we need to have in mind the visibility that those mountains give him. I'm not 100% sure but I think that he can see into our city. No probably not,...with the forests. I see a lunchtime SIM happening.

Why move the axe forward? If he had 2 axes he could move both units forward to raze the city but he's not doing that.

A bluff? Sure makes you think that he's got a second unit, right? But with his power being not that high (still the case?) + long borders he probably doesn't have real military in either of those 2 plants.

Alternatively, he's about to have an otherwise unprotected worker dropped off onto that tile from uptown warriors? He can't see the cows tile,... Let's keep the chariot + workers there for flexibilty and secrecy. We'd want both workers to road the SW wines tile and then move the hidden chariot + axe onto the corn. Maybe cottage SW of happy while we wait to see what happens.

We could have 1 worker road 2S of Anxious as a sign that we're heading south and not into him. He'll definately see that with the mountain there. Then a quick move onto the hills for a peak.

A unit onto that hill 2S1W will be able to see into his city but that will suggest hostility that we shouldn't show until we're ready.

One last note,...with the barb city we'll hopefully see the barb activity calm down. So we might be able to take a calculated risk with the axe from Happy.