WW39. Escape from the Congo.

[AdrienIer]

Yeah Matt and Zak for example ?

[Shadeun]

Shadeun, why do you think that Adrien + Mattimeo doesn't work? I think it seems pretty likely at this point that the wolves are tearing at each other like wild dogs.

Thats a good point. I have liked Mattimeo's stuff in the past day or two but no reason that doesnt work.

[zakalwe]

So... people have tired of making (up) arguments, it seems.

Shadeun, you said that Gazglum wouldn't risk placing an early vote for AdrienIer, but what's to lose? If AdrienIer is lynched, Gazglum comes out of it smelling like roses, and can take it home on the final day. All they need is one townie voting for another (which I fear they have right now), and then they can just switch near the deadline. Placing an early vote for AdrienIer is actually the low-risk play.

For similar reasons, I'm starting to lean away from Mattimeo/AdrienIer as a pair. They wouldn't both place their votes on me like they're doing now, because they'd just be forcing me to switch to AdrienIer, creating a town consensus. They want to maintain the hope of a town-on-town vote surviving until deadline, and the way to do that is to spread out their votes. In other words, either Mattimeo or AdrienIer is innocent. And Mattimeo was really stretching to make the pieces fit with me as scum.

Ah, crossposting... There's your reason why Mattimeo/AdrienIer doesn't work (from my point of view).

[Shadeun]

So... people have tired of making (up) arguments, it seems.

Shadeun, you said that Gazglum wouldn't risk placing an early vote for AdrienIer, but what's to lose? If AdrienIer is lynched, Gazglum comes out of it smelling like roses, and can take it home on the final day. All they need is one townie voting for another (which I fear they have right now), and then they can just switch near the deadline. Placing an early vote for AdrienIer is actually the low-risk play.

Well It would extend the game by a day also. But I also have liked his play otherwise (as I said).

Certainly town are not all in line simple because there are not 3 votes on someone.

[Gazglum]

Well, here we are.

I have been intentionally silent this morning, because I wanted to see how people acted. If Adrien and Zak are town, they know that we are heading for a loss. Adrien particularly, because Zak can switch to him to protect himself.

I think the scum are Adrien and Zak, but I’m not certain. I’m becoming close to certain, though. Town Adrien should be giving it his all now, because either he hangs and the game is over, or he probably wins it for us. This is not a time for town to be apathetic.

Zak looks like he is in less danger, but he is a great player and should be trying to steer this home for us. If he was town, I would expect him to have clearly stated views on who the scum pair are likely to be, to push them, and to ultimately keep his vote pretty locked in on someone.

If he was scum I would expect him to be feeling a bit of resignation, and to be shifting his focus to probe for weaknesses in the town’s confidence. To not be giving a clear account of his beliefs, but to be opportunistic. Such as, for example, going from arguing for Adrien the whole game to suddenly leaning innocent on him and aiming at Matt, Adrien’s target the whole game. So a full 180 degrees predicated on his dislike of Mattimeo’s last post, which seemed very level headed to me.

Plus if it is Mattimeo, who then is his partner? Zak doesn’t say. He thinks not Adrien now (moving off his favourite target again, as in Day 1), which suggests to me an attempt for the win today. I suspect he doesn’t say he thinks Gazglum or Shadeun are a scum partner outright, because he wants to keep his options open and not to put either of us offside.

I think Zak is scum. Summing up Zak’s game, I think his tone has been good and he’s played it well, but ultimately has been a bit screwed by his switch off Adrien Day 1, and by sticking too closely to the Scumzak playbook – openly murdering his accuser Bob on Day 1.

When Zak got hard questions and pressure (second half of Day 2), he just disappeared completely for a day, which is out of character for him. Also, several times he has simply had no answer to a query and moved on with a smiling shrug of the shoulders. Ie:

Yes, when you put it like this it does sound like a bad call. And I completely agree, with the benefit of hindsight, that it was.

So with Adrien innocent, what is the Rowain scenario?

Starting to slip my mind by now what exactly I was thinking, but yeah, I don't think I had Rowain paired with anyone specific in my mind. Just someone to reexamine if AdrienIer flipped town.

Zak offered no thoughts at the end of Day 2, and suggested everyone keep quiet. This would have deprived us of his suspect list if he was nightkilled - I was interested to see if he posted a last minute post, but he didn't. Nor did I, but then after my Rowain clusterglum I was pretty sure that I would be living to see a new dawn.

Many years ago, in a 9 player game, Zak and Lewwyn slaughtered their way to victory despite the protestations of the Glum. But the Glum does not forget. And would like vengeance.

My only hesitation is that I think Adrien is playing (just) within the realms of possibility for frustrated, depressed, town Adrien. And Matt could fit with scum. But Matt’s posts today were exactly the kind of thing I would expect of town at this point – trying to form a holistic world view and analysing people’s game up till now.

I’m still open to hearing from everyone, but for me I think it comes down to just a choice of whether I vote Zak or Adrien. I’m about 80% sure on both. I think Adrien is more likely to fit with Matt, and Shadeun with Zak, but that neither of those scenarios are particularly likely.

I’d like to hear from others, and I’d like us to end up 4v1 if possible, at the end of the day.

[AdrienIer]

I had an exam this morning and will be more present this afternoon

[zakalwe]

Dearest Gazglum,

Novice didn't offer any last minute thoughts either. After 40 games of mafia, you start to realize that those last-minute thoughts aren't really so indispensable, especially when the game is populated with highly competent players to begin with. It was also a very busy week-end for me.

My Gazglum/AdrienIer theory has been out there for some time, and I'm known for being reasonably persuasive if I put my mind to it. So if I had it nailed, why am I still alive? Meanwhile, you are showing some nice persistence if you're scum, while Mattimeo's scum game would take a lot less effort. AdrienIer has been defending well, and attacking poorly, which I take as a scummy sign. But I wouldn't call him much scummier than you. It's the pair of you that have been standing out to me. And if you're not both scum, then I think Mattimeo is.

And yes, I guess AdrienIer/Mattimeo is quite possible still. Ruling it out on the basis of their vote placement right now would be silly. But I also stand by my previous post; it would be more natural for them to split their votes.

On day 2 you made a case against Mattimeo based on the fact that he could work as a partner with anyone. But now you're saying there's no plausible partner for him?

[Gazglum]

My good sir,

It did look like a fun weekend, and I totally understand that street parades are more important than werewolf.

I didn't mean that I couldn't see a plausible partner for Matt, I meant you didn't name one. We're coming to the crunch, and if you now think its Matt then I would expect your attack to be "I think we're looking at Matt/X because of Y,", but you prefer to stick with the vague 'Matt and someone'.

Day 2 I did say Matt could have worked with anybody. Since then though, I think it less likely that he is with Shadeun, because Shadeun made a pretty good case for a policy lynch of Matt halfway through Day 2, though it ultimately didnt' take off. Obviously Adrien has been voting Matt all game, but the way he's gone about it actually makes me feel its more likely to be distancing than Shadeun, who made just one strong push. And its possible you and Matt are together, but you're a smart wolf, and if you wanted to go down teh distancing route I think you would have started earlier rather than switching to Mattimeo now.

But really, its comparing Matt's behaviour to yours that makes me think you are the scum. If it wasn't for how badly burned I got yesterday I would be making bad wolf puns at you and such, but I am bit more humbleglum now.

I guess if its not you and Adrien, you have to convince me what it is instead.

[Gazglum]

Monsieur Zak,

Let's say for argument's sake that you are right that one of Adrien and Matt have to be scum, but not both. How does an entire game of you believing Adrien is scum get suddenly outweighed by Matt posting 'Zak is the scum' just before? Especially given that Adrien is saying exactly the same thing, only with zero evidence instead of circumstantial.

[zakalwe]

Well, I do think it's Matt and someone. If we flip Matt as scum, then I promise a fair trial to whoever is left on the final day. If you are innocent, then the other one must be AdrienIer or Shadeun. AdrienIer is scummier than Shadeun. I actually spent some time rereading Shadeun in isolation earlier, thinking that he needed some prodding. That just served to remind me that he played a very townish day 2, though.

Really I'm not sure. I don't want to be pinned down to that "AdrienIer or Mattimeo but not both" stance, either. But if I can rule out Shadeun and I can rule out you/AdrienIer then lynching Mattimeo is the safe play. The problem is that I can't rule out you/AdrienIer. You're pushing him, but all the time you're keeping the door open for lynching me.

You are also very right that AdrienIer gave no good reason for his vote for me. More specifically, I'm missing the reason why I am now a better lynch than Mattimeo.