[PB64] Amicalola Gets To Heaven with Tarkeel and Ljubljana

[Amicalola]

Was it an option to flank out the catapults with knights after cannons stopped doing much collateral?

Not really. There were 44 catapults and 25 knights, so nothing would have died realistically (or at least, not enough that it would have been worth the risk). The knight results look better than the odds were even with this, we won a lot of ~70% combats. I don't think we got close to killing anything with flanking even with that.

So, how many units do they have left on that tile?  Your mouse hover-over only shows your own units.  I see that you do still have some full-strength hill fort defenders (if they choose to try to attack into that tile), so maybe your attacking stack won't get counter-wiped?  But it's hard to tell without seeing what they have left.  I have to imagine that some of their catapults died from flanking damage, no?

Oop, my bad. Most of Commodore's hitters were killed, but his 36 catapults + some hitters, and Nauf's 8 catapults + 30-ish hitters stayed alive. So I have to imagine we get wrecked on the return. What sucks is that this probably leaves Naufragar the uncontested winner, but I don't know if the others are going to realise that, so we might have to play out a long series of turns that clearly go in one direction. Ah well.

The big lesson from this game should probably be that Serfdom is good against uncoordinated players (PB58), but way too prone to die to the simultaneous whips of multiple players (PB64). A valuable lesson to learn, even if it was rough for poor Ginger and me.

[Charriu]

But to be fair slavery will also only prolong the dying against multiple players simultaneous whips

[Amicalola]

But to be fair slavery will also only prolong the dying against multiple players simultaneous whips

Yeah, and Serfdom was obviously very important to get me to this point technologically and food-wise. But I suspect if I'd been in Slavery for this whole time I could maybe have whipped a storm at some point and done something with a huge knight stack, like take the rest of Gavagai instead of Superdeath doing so, or cripple Naufragar out of the game. Hard to say, I'll never really know, it's just my suspicion.

I think also there's a reasonable chance that if I could have whipped for the last 10 turns, this invasion gets held pretty easily. Although the same unknowability applies there. And hey, maybe my doom and gloom is wrong and we survive the counter-attack after all.

I also made some key diplomatic mistakes recently, like trusting Commodore's fish/fish even though I was about to win if he had been genuine (meaning genuine-ness was probably pretty unlikely, and I shouldn't have trusted it).

[Amicalola]

Oop.


(Not pictured: 44 catapult combats )

Oop.



Oop.



Oop! 



It was nice knowing you, lords and ladies. 

[chumchu]

This has been an amazing read thus far. Thank you for the great reporting.

It sounds like you feel pessimistic about your chances to win. Is anyone in a good spot?

What would you say are the odds for each player to win and who deserves it the most?

[Amicalola]

This has been an amazing read thus far. Thank you for the great reporting.

It sounds like you feel pessimistic about your chances to win. Is anyone in a good spot?

What would you say are the odds for each player to win and who deserves it the most?

I'm not sure what Naufragar is or is not reporting, but (assuming the dogpile continues) he is obviously in the best spot, and it's not very close. This is pretty much a two-horse race, unless Commodore/SD have some miraculous plan to strike/cripple Naufragar in the near future. One horse is guaranteed to lose (at least) the entire south: 


My game probably dies with Get To Heaven, which has most of our remaining luxuries. But we also saw this today:


So Blast Doors is probably gone as well. I've also gotta whip to the ground to stay alive. The other horse has lost almost nothing (almost all the losses have been mine and Comm's), is in Slavery for dogpile-resistance, and is an era ahead of the rest in tech with the gap still growing. He'd struggle to lose, even with some Amicalola-level misplays.  

For percentage chances, it's impossible to give a straight answer because it depends on this: If/When do the dogpilers realise that Naufragar is winning, and do they care? If they realise and have some plan I can't comprehend, maybe it stays interesting. But if they do not realise soon, or do not care, he will win in a cakewalk. I suspect that's what's going to happen (Commodore's galleys certainly suggest it), which is a shame, but the game had to end somehow; this is just the final act.

As for who deserves it, I don't really know how to answer that. No one deserves to win or lose, we've all made good and bad decisions. What do you mean?

[Amicalola]

Thinking about it more, I guess the only option is to make Commodore and SD realise they're handing the victory from one opponent to another. I'll offer them both peace for a couple of cities, Superdeath can have Software Man and Cherry while Commodore gets an island or two. That's crippling, but the alternative is 100% Naufragar Victory, so I might as well. I doubt they will accept regardless.

[Mjmd]

Love the determination to stay alive and keep fighting and trying to turn your enemies on each other.

Just real quick reminder rules were set at 1 city per peace treaty although I know that was broken once so not sure on current status.

[Amicalola]

T231
If this sequence of moves saves Blast Doors, I am going to be so disgustingly pleased with myself. 








I thought for a long time about whether to get Formation, Pinch, or both, before deciding we had better anti-knight units than anti-musket ones. Maybe both would have been better, or maybe neither, I'm not sure. Probably it doesn't matter much.

The remnants of the battle of New Wheels flee the field. 



The Heroes of Software Greatman blow five units to smithereens without taking a scratch. Sadly, this turn they are sacrificed into the grinder. 





The serfs get repurposed.



We offer each enemy peace for 1-2 cities. I doubt any of them accept, but it's worth a shot.

[Magic Science]

Did you whip every city you own? How many pop is that? Holy crap.