WW39. Escape from the Congo.

[Gazglum]

My door is always open for you, Zak.

We're all giving Shadeun a town lean, and he thinks 70% its you and Adrien. Matt thinks 80% it's you and Adrien. I think it's you and Adrien. So you're both in a tight spot.

If you were town you would be hammering your targets. Breaking them on the wheel of Zak Justice. Instead you are trying to sweet-talk me.

[zakalwe]

I'm not trying to sweet-talk you. I was just born with a silver tongue. Here, have a look:

Actually, it probably is time for me to just vote defensively.

AdrienIer

Yes, hopefully he is in a tight spot.

If you were hoping I would keep pushing Mattimeo, then you miscalculated.

[Gazglum]

I hope only for redemption.

So is this a "I don't really think it's Adrien but I have to defensive vote to survive 9 hours from deadline" kind of vote? Or a "I think it's Adrien and Matt even though I just said it wasn't" kind of vote?

[AdrienIer]

Then all I have to say is GG wolves. I'll try to get something up but honestly no one here has had to do as much defense as me and having to do both defense and attacks when you don't have a clear enemy is tough. Every day I started with accusations against me. I tried to attack but without any tangible info I haven't been very good at it. I'm better at analyzing things when a wolf has been caught, or when there's meta and claims to use. Without Zak voting Matt I'm not sure I want to move back on Matt and risk getting a revenge vote from him now. I hope it's indeed Matt and Zak, so I can cling back to the thought that I got things right in the end. Zak's move right there certainly implies it.

More specifically, I'm missing the reason why I am now a better lynch than Mattimeo.

You're not necessarily better, but Matt finally posted something interesting and I was tired of going after him. I believe you're both scum so I don't care in which order we lynch you.

[AdrienIer]

I don't know what to do... I think Matt has more chance of turning up as a wolf but he's the only one not voting for me. Gazglum and Shadeun what are your thoughts about the wolves ? You're both voting for me, but am I supposed to be with Matt or Zak ? Or one of you two ? Your silence is making me nervous (well Shadeun's silence). I'm starting to wonder whether you're not together on this. Zak with who am I supposed to be paired ? If it's one of Shadeun or Gazglum why are you following them ? It's not time for purely defensive votes now, if I make less sense than someone else maybe you should consider trying to convince other people. I'm ready to be swayed onto a Matt lynch but don't want to make this 3/1/1.

[Gazglum]

I don't know what to do... I think Matt has more chance of turning up as a wolf but he's the only one not voting for me. Gazglum and Shadeun what are your thoughts about the wolves ? You're both voting for me, but am I supposed to be with Matt or Zak ? Or one of you two ?

What are my thoughts on the wolves? I've just spent the day discussing it with Zak. I think you and Zak are wolves, didn't you read any of the posts above? Wouldn't Townrien be pretty focused on the details right now?

I think that you and Zak are by far the scummiest, and I am certain that you are not both innocent. Matt -might- be scum, but if he is then he is still paired with one of you. So I'd rather vote for you or Zak.

YOu have suggested that its a Zak/Matt combo. I don't see it. With two town votes on you, all they need to do is have one or both of them join Shadeun and me. Instead they were sniping each other. It's possible that they were assuming SHadeun and I will stay on you, so they could flip to you at the last minute. But now Zak has moved to you in a ridiculously scummy way, rather than jsut starting on you and riding it to victory.

The only reason I'm not totally tuned out is that Shadeun and Matt are both being so unengaged, and because I've recently been reminded of what can happen if I get too comfortable in my assumptions. But you have done no scumhunting. There are plenty of good points to be made on Zak, and I have been making some. You are apparently highly confident that he is scum, but you haven't made any points at all.

I don't think there's much more point me engaging on this, and Zak seems to have snoozed off too. I'm not totally certain that I'm right, but without any fresh evidence suggesting your innocence, I'm not going to move, unless someone can convince me that Zak is a safer bet or would have more poetic justice. So if you're town, I'm sorry, and may the WOlf Gods help you turn up something on Zak, Matt or Shadeun.

It's been a grand game though. And presuming you're scum, you've done a good job surviving so close to the edge for a stressful week. Much better than Cugel the Clever did.

[Gazglum]

Matt and Shadeun, figners crossed that you are town, we should converge on a target. What are your feelings? Ideally we want 4 on 1 as an extra protection against deadline flips.

[AdrienIer]

I think the wolves, whoever they are, have played very very well. So chances are one of them is a vet who's played numerous scum games. Which means Matt and Zak. Both together rises the chance of a very well played game.

Rereading Zak, there are small tells I can find. They're not much and I expect you and Zak to say it's too small but it's still something. Here for example :

Since everybody has switched to discussing scum pairs I guess I will do the same. I think AdrienIer + Novice makes a lot of sense holistically speaking, closely followed by AdrienIer + Gazglum. Maybe AdrienIer + Shadeun works too, but I'm not getting scum vibes from Shadeun today.

Gazglum, I suspected Bob yesterday so I lynched him. I'm suspecting AdrienIer today, so I'm voting to lynch him. You can try to construct a contradiction out of that by spamming me with nearly-identical questions, or focus on something more productive.

Rowain, by staying on AdrienIer, I did get to decide whether he or Bob should hang. Why would I switch to 3:3:2 to "ensure that one of them would hang"? That makes no sense.

I did not mean to say earlier that I was equally uneasy with all the AdrienIer voters. I was most uneasy with Lewwyn, and a little uneasy with Rowain and Shadeun. And before anyone asks, my opinions have evolved since then. Shadeun didn't really articulate a proper reason for voting for AdrienIer. But he was more eloquent during the night, pointing out (in a very towny way) why I made a bad call by switching to Bob.

If AdrienIer flips innocent then I would likely turn back to Rowain and Shadeun. Gazglum and Novice could still be scum, but I mainly suspect them as AdrienIer's buddy.

As people have been pointing out, Mattimeo is compatible with just about anyone, except probably not AdrienIer. Lynching him for purely strategic reasons feels risky to me, but maybe you can argue that it's necessary. We should still keep discussing who the scum are in the event that he is innocent, though. Ideally he feels better and makes a convincing comeback.

He basically says everyone can be wolf except Matt who, he states, he doesn't want to vote for yet. He's keeping his options open but the one he closes the most is Matt because "it's risky". There are lots of posts like that where Zak defuses the bomb of policy lynching Matt.

[Mattimeo]

Fuck, sorry about missing the last day. Will be paying attention right up to lynch, though might be distracted by the Eurovision semi-final near the end (decause, damnit, we get one year where we can actually take part, so I'm damn well going to watch the whole thing).

I'm not pushing AdrienIer and Shadeun as a pair, and never did. The point is, I don't believe that Mattimeo would completely exclude that possibility while accusing me of, like you say, doing much the same thing.

Difference is, you switched. Your actions kept him alive, while Shadeun's would have resulted in him dying. That's the difference there.

I’d like to hear from others, and I’d like us to end up 4v1 if possible, at the end of the day.

We do need 4-1 to be safe against the last minute switch if it's not town aligned (and it's currently not; there's at least one scum voting Adrien). Only issue is, 4v1 means at least one scum voting - and is it because they're trying to blend in (good for us) or because they're fine with the lynch (bad for us)?

I'd honestly prefer the pile to be on Zak. His actions today, since Gaz doubled down on him, have been really bad. On the other hand, That would involve coordinated switching, and I've had a scum read on Adrien for a lot longer than just today.
Lock in AdrienIer

::
Extended compose-time edit:

Matt and Shadeun, figners crossed that you are town, we should converge on a target. What are your feelings? Ideally we want 4 on 1 as an extra protection against deadline flips.

If we can pull Shadeun, then Zak. Else, we're all now on Adrien, and in my mind they're almost certainly both scum, so leaving as they are is not exactly bad.

[Gazglum]

I think I agree that Zak has been even worse in the Great Scum Off. Voting him would protect us from all combinations i can believe in except Matt/ADrien, but if Zak is town then he could surely have built a case on that. Instead he said he thought it wasn't at all plausible.

Adrien, Shadeun, would you vote for Zak?

So Australia is in the semi final tonight? As in tonight our time? As in like...now? Maybe I should watch too!