The mirrored positions made getting a read on the Championship game harder, with random elements like religion spreads and barbarian city spawns having an inordinate impact.
My take on guessing a possible outcome was the following:
Asoka and Charlemagne were likely to found the first religions. Through coastal spreads, you'd think that would lead to a North vs South scenario, but I believed we'd actually see active spreading, through missionaries, and that one of these guys would do a better job than the other.
That would lead to a majority religion vs minority religion situation, with the founder of the minority religion being a marked man.
So, first to die: Asoka or Charlemagne.
With one high peace weight AI out, the balance of the game would tilt to the low peace weight AIs.
So Willem, Gilgamesh, and Mehmed would be the contenders.
I ranked those, as most people I guess, in the following order: Willem > Gilgamesh > Mehmed.
Now, I fully expected Gilgamesh and Willem to fight at some point, and if that point was any time before the very end, that meant they were exclusive choices.
So Willem first, Mehmed second it was.
As for first to die, I went for Charlemagne instead of Asoka. My reasoning was that while Willem could benefit from Asoka's elimination, he was almost bound to be involved in Charlemagne's elimination: which made the latter scenario better from a Willem winning point of view. So while Asoka first to die was probably a tad more likely than Charlemagne first to die, I believed than the combination (Willem first, Charlemagne FTD) was more likely than (Willem first, Asoka FTD).
A ressource-rich map with more city sites than usual would lead to a fast finish. And while Willem usually goes for Culture, here, with more warring than usual, and with Asoka and Charlemagne likely to found a lot of religions, Spaceship seemed actually more likely.
So, how did it go?
My prediction for the reruns:
Winner: Willem (60%) > Gilgamesh (20%) > Mehmed (10%)
Runner-up: Mehmed (30%)
FTD: Asoka (45%) / Charlemagne (40%)
Victory: Spaceship (60%) > Cultural (20%) / Domination (20%)
Victory Date: ~310
Thanks Sulla for running this, and congrats marbe166 for the win !
My take on guessing a possible outcome was the following:
Asoka and Charlemagne were likely to found the first religions. Through coastal spreads, you'd think that would lead to a North vs South scenario, but I believed we'd actually see active spreading, through missionaries, and that one of these guys would do a better job than the other.
That would lead to a majority religion vs minority religion situation, with the founder of the minority religion being a marked man.
So, first to die: Asoka or Charlemagne.
With one high peace weight AI out, the balance of the game would tilt to the low peace weight AIs.
So Willem, Gilgamesh, and Mehmed would be the contenders.
I ranked those, as most people I guess, in the following order: Willem > Gilgamesh > Mehmed.
Now, I fully expected Gilgamesh and Willem to fight at some point, and if that point was any time before the very end, that meant they were exclusive choices.
So Willem first, Mehmed second it was.
As for first to die, I went for Charlemagne instead of Asoka. My reasoning was that while Willem could benefit from Asoka's elimination, he was almost bound to be involved in Charlemagne's elimination: which made the latter scenario better from a Willem winning point of view. So while Asoka first to die was probably a tad more likely than Charlemagne first to die, I believed than the combination (Willem first, Charlemagne FTD) was more likely than (Willem first, Asoka FTD).
A ressource-rich map with more city sites than usual would lead to a fast finish. And while Willem usually goes for Culture, here, with more warring than usual, and with Asoka and Charlemagne likely to found a lot of religions, Spaceship seemed actually more likely.
So, how did it go?
My prediction for the reruns:
Winner: Willem (60%) > Gilgamesh (20%) > Mehmed (10%)
Runner-up: Mehmed (30%)
FTD: Asoka (45%) / Charlemagne (40%)
Victory: Spaceship (60%) > Cultural (20%) / Domination (20%)
Victory Date: ~310
Thanks Sulla for running this, and congrats marbe166 for the win !
![[Image: biggrin.gif]](http://www.sullla.com/Smilies/biggrin.gif)
