[SPOILER] Close to Win

[Charriu]

T170: It begins

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Nothing especially noteworthy happened this turn except that pindicator is crushing Superdeath with 3 more cities taken and SD down to 3. I offered Mjmd silver for his spare gold. He doesn't have silver, because I just took it from him, so he most likely will accept. My second silver will be connected shortly, so I'm good there.






I'm proud to say it has began. I started the war with Jowy, by killing his stranded warrior between me and Mjmd. By now this is more of a nice gesture towards him, but it's free XP for my chariot and the next GG. It's also nice to see that I'm almost even in power with Jowy, which means he didn't build that much military across the last turns. This is the front:




As you can see I moved everything in after looking with a spare archer and only seeing the expected macemen from the north. I do have to note that I saw a knight being finished in HillstormGiants after the turn has rolled. My triremes are still waiting in my border ready to be upgraded next turn. Then I'll eat some ships from Jowy.




Up in the north nothing that interesting has happened. AT has a constant force at his border with Jowy. I'm thinking about moving a smaller force through ATs land to encourage him to join the war.

[Miguelito]

Assuming the picture remains the same, are you going to bombard or go straight in?

[Charriu]

I will do a sim later to test things out, but I think it's very likely that I will bombard first. I have enough collateral to bombard all the defenses thanks to the 3 trebs.

[Charriu]

T171 Part 1:

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That was a devastating first turn of the war. Looks like Jowys knights were not in best position before the attack, which is why they are on the hill now. Here is the combat report:

Longbowman vs Catapult (99.4%) = Flawless WIN, X collateral
Longbowman vs Catapult (99.4%) = WIN, hit 2 time, X collateral
Crossbowman vs Catapult (98.2%) = Flawless WIN, X collateral
Crossbowman vs Catapult (98.2%) = WIN, hit 2 time, X collateral
Crossbowman vs Catapult (98.2%) = Flawless WIN, X collateral
Crossbowman vs Catapult (98.2%) = Flawless WIN, X collateral
Crossbowman vs Catapult (98.2%) = WIN, hit 2 time, X collateral
Crossbowman vs Catapult (98.2%) = Flawless WIN, X collateral
Pikeman vs Knight (51.7%) = LOSS, hit 1 time
Pikeman vs Knight (49.5%) = LOSS, hit 1 time
Pikeman vs Knight (49.5%) = WIN, hit 3 time
Crossbowman vs Knight (34.8%) = LOSS, hit 3 time
Pikeman vs Knight (45.3%) = LOSS, hit 3 time
Longbowman vs Knight (16.0%) = LOSS, hit 4 time
Crossbowman vs Knight (24.3%) = LOSS, hit 2 time
Gallic Warrior vs Knight (34.1%) = LOSS, hit 4 time
Gallic Warrior vs Knight (34.1%) = LOSS, hit 4 time
Crossbowman vs Ballista Elephant (35.6%) = WIN, hit 4 time
Crossbowman vs Ballista Elephant (39.1%) = LOSS, hit 1 time
Crossbowman vs Ballista Elephant (34.6%) = LOSS, hit 4 time
Crossbowman vs Ballista Elephant (34.6%) = WIN, hit 4 time
Gallic Warrior vs Ballista Elephant (71.9%) = LOSS, hit 4 time
Crossbowman vs Maceman (62.7%) = LOSS, hit 4 time
Crossbowman vs Maceman (84.6%) = WIN, hit 4 time
Crossbowman vs Maceman (67.6%) = WIN, hit 2 time
Crossbowman vs Maceman (67.6%) = WIN, hit 3 time
Gallic Warrior vs Maceman (25.7%) = LOSS, hit 3 time
Crossbowman vs Maceman (12.5%) = LOSS, hit 3 time
Archer vs Maceman (5.4%) = LOSS, hit 3 time
Axeman vs Maceman (24.9%) = WIN, hit 2 time
Gallic Warrior vs Maceman (22.9%) = LOSS, hit 3 time
Axeman vs Maceman (22.9%) = LOSS, hit 4 time
Axeman vs Maceman (22.9%) = LOSS, hit 5 time
Gallic Warrior vs Maceman (11.8%) = LOSS, hit 1 time
Gallic Warrior vs Maceman (11.8%) = LOSS, hit 2 time
Gallic Warrior vs Maceman (10.9%) = LOSS, hit 3 time


Overall I would say I was a little bit more unlucky then Jowy on the dice rolls. Especially the 3 close calls from the pikeman vs knights at the beginning, were a big hit to morale. Of course I couldn't know that he had 10 knights in range, but I expected at least some. Should have brought more pikeman.

Casualties:

Jowy
Catapults = 8
Ballista Elephants = 3
Maceman = 4
Knights = 1
= 16 units worth 950 hammers

Me
Axeman = 2
Gallic Warriors = 7
Archer = 1
Pikeman = 3
Crossbowman = 6
Longbowman = 1
= 20 units worth 965 hammers

So I definitely lost this first fight. I have to seriously think about where to go from here. He killed a lot of my best units meant for the attack. Retreating back north makes my units even more vulnerable, because of flat ground.

[Charriu]

T171 Part 2:

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Now that my kids are asleep I can finally return to my turn. I did think about my options. Retreating with my army is no option, because on the flat ground his knights and maceman will just flatten my stack. Staying in place and healing is equally bad, first he will just move his knights into the city and continue his attack next turn. He also will have healed some of his units. So I went back on the attack. I had 17 units that could take the city and he has 16 defenders. Let's see how things turned out:

Trebuchet CR2 vs Maceman C1 (49.3%) = WITHDRAW, hit 3 times, 1 collateral
Trebuchet CR2 vs Maceman C1 (59.1%) = WITHDRAW, hit 2 times, 2 collateral
Trebuchet CR1 vs Maceman C1 Shock (54.2%) = LOSS, hit 2 times, 1 collateral
Catapult CR1 vs Maceman C1 Shock (19.6%) = LOSS, hit 1 times, 1 collateral
Catapult CR1 vs Maceman C1 (43.7%) = LOSS, hit 2 times, 2 collateral
Catapult Barrage vs Maceman C2 (34.7%) = WITHDRAW, hit 1 times, 1 collateral
Catapult vs Maceman C1 (42.8%) = LOSS, hit 1 times, 0 collateral
Catapult CR1 vs Maceman C1 Shock (49.0%) = LOSS, hit 0 times, 1 collateral
Catapult vs Maceman C1 Shock (39.6%) = WITHDRAW, hit 1 times, 1 collateral
Axeman C1 CR1 vs Maceman C1 (62.6%) = LOSS, hit 2 times
Axeman CR1 vs Maceman C1 Shock (64.7%) = LOSS, hit 2 times
Axeman CR1 vs Maceman C1 Shock (62.0%) = Flawless WIN
Gallic Warrior C2 Guerilla 1 vs Maceman C1 Shock (72.3%) = LOSS, hit 1 times
Axeman C1 vs Ballista Elephant C2 (42.0%) = LOSS, hit 1 times
Axeman CR1 vs Ballista Elephant C1 Medic1 (64.1%) = WIN, hit 4 times
Axeman C1 vs Maceman C2 (67.8%) = Flawless LOSS
Crossbowman C2 Guerilla1 CG1 Drill1 vs Ballista Elephant C2 (86.1%) = WIN, hit 3 times
Crossbowman Guerilla1 CG1 Drill1 Shock vs Knight (83.4%) = WIN, hit 1 times
Crossbowman Guerilla1 CG1 Drill1 Shock vs Maceman C2 (86.9%) = Flawless WIN
Crossbowman Guerilla2 CG1 Drill1 Shock vs Spearman (85.1%) = LOSS, hit 2 times

Hey, Civilization 4, we need to have a talk. Was it really necessary that I lose so many 50%+ fights? I know I was already loosing, but what a nice way to kick somebody, who's already at the ground. Honestly after the first losses I only continued, because I wanted to know how bad my luck will be. At least I killed the medic elephant.






Now I did not throw everything at them. 2 archers, 1 spearman and 1 pikeman did not attack and will heal at the end of the turn. Some units will be autopromoted. I thought about deleting all my units, but decided against it in hope for some lucky dice rolls. So, Civilization 4, you have one last chance to make it up to me.
But seriously I will most likely investigate if those combat odds shown to you are real or just fake.

Casualties:

Jowy
Ballista Elephants = 2
Maceman = 2
Knights = 1
= 5 units worth 350 hammers

Me
Axeman = 4
Gallic Warriors = 1
Catapults = 4
Crossbowman = 1
Trebuchet = 1
= 11 units worth 520 hammers

Of course I moved more units down south. I also upgraded my two triremes to Caraval. At least I have that. Oh and Mjmd send me OB for his fish. Thanks buddy, much appreciated.

[Charriu]

I just went back in and send Jowy a white peace offer. I can't win anything against him on land in the upcoming 10 turns. The only wins I can take are on the inner sea and those aren't that important compared to the land battles.

[Charriu]

T172:

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Of course Jowy did not accept the peace offer, which was to be expected. I did not bother to give a detailed report of the fight this time as it mostly were 80%+ fights for him, which he won. Two exceptions to that. The axeman won against the maceman with below 30% odds and of course the pikeman lost in a 50% fight against the knight. Would have liked it the other way round.

Casualties:

Jowy
Maceman = 2
= 1 units worth 70 hammers

Me
Axeman = 4
Archer = 2
Spearman = 1
Catapults = 2
Crossbowman = 3
Trebuchet = 2
Pikeman = 1
= 15 units worth 725 hammers

So the whole campaign was a disaster and I did expect this could happen. But then again I'm standing with my back against a wall between the two tech and score leaders. I don't have any chance of getting ahead in tech against anyone, so I don't have anything to loose. The only option was to play on peacefully and wait 50 more turns when Jowy has rifles and steamrolls me.




I did move my caravals closer Jowy. I do expect that he will move his ships into his cities, where I can't hit them. Now at least I do have the advantage in the inner sea. He can't hit my ships in the ocean tiles and as soon as he moves his ships out of his cities I will hit them. It's also very unlikely that he will tech Astronomy soon for Galleons as this will obsolete the Colossus, which is one major reason for his tech advantage. In that way I more or less have taken care of any naval landings from his side.

[Charriu]

T173:

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I forgot to previously mention this but Mr. Cairo and AT are at war with no city changed so far (Street just changed from Mr.Cairo to AT and back again)




Meanwhile I have the fallout of our first fight in the power ranking. Great sharks approaching.




No further movement from Jowy. I found his ships again and should be able to strike next turn if he doesn't bring them into safety. He also recently discovered gunpowder.

[shallow_thought]

Well, plenty of excitement. I do appreciate the ongoing level of reporting.

[Charriu]

T174:

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We start by looking at the Mr. Cairo/AT conflict. Looks like there was some bombardement by Mr. Cairo and general fighting.




Now back to the important stuff. First of all I made two mistakes in the last turns:

1. I totally missed to move in with my galley and pillage the seafood. Now Jowy does have a galley in HillstormGiants, but my galley is C1 promoted and gets 10% defense from coast. He's welcome to trying to kill my galley.
2. I totally missed to turn off auto-promote. Now looking around it does look like it wasn't that bad. Some longbowmen were promoted to CG3 which is ok. I did make a todo for myself to investigate the autopromote option further for my curious civ player segment.

There is a lot more on that screenshot though. First Jowy moved his ships into a safe harbor, but I am still denying him the seafood there. As you can see a lot of his units are coming down south. So far I only counted 3 catapults, which is still not enough to break my defense in JuvenileWizards. Speaking of that city, not only did I whip a caraval there to get the circumnavigation bonus I also will get the 2nd border pop there this turn, which may even bring back the deer tile towards me. We'll see about that.
Also noteworthy is that all the units that I am seeing so far from Jowy are mainly knights and Ballista Elephants. Now those are good units, but he knows I have pikes. I do hope for him that these are not as useful against me as maceman are.
I'm really curious to know what I will find in the open seas as I am the first player to venture there. Maybe I will find some astronomy islands to evacuate to and built them up as a pirate fort, looting all the money I need with privateers. That would be awesome and definitely a new goal for me to work towards.