Werewolf 12: Game Thread

[pindicator]

Thanks for posting all those data pindicator. Especially the having the post number to reference back to is great.

I took a look at Ichabod, though, and noticed he made an attempt in post 92 to start something up on MNG. At that time that's the fourth vote for him, which would put him at the top. I think that takes some of the steam out of your "Meiz & Ichabod were protecting MNG" theory.

Actually, I'm glad you brought that up. Because when I saw that vote I was initially ready to say "okay, he's trying to get me lynched but maybe he's a villager and I should focus elsewhere." But then I noticed that what happens is Ichabod votes for MNG with 27 hours to go -- still plenty of time -- then switches his vote 5 hours later to Mardoc. He says he wants to try other targets in that post.

Now as a teammate he would be diverting votes for MNG. Think about it: he votes in with the bandwagon to establish his cover, like he's a regular villager, and then a few hours later says he wants to try to get votes on other people. And it seems like it starts working for him! Other people who had voted for MNG start moving their votes elsewhere, and Tasunke and even Ichabod at one point take the vote lead.

Except later on, I bring up MNG again and other people's interest in MNG renews, so he needs to try another tactic. So he gives this weak argument about how me asking questions about a game I've never played before is "acting too much like a noob" that I must be a wolf. He gets a few people to join in, but it doesn't work like the first time and game over MNG.

I admit, it's not 100% concrete. Maybe there's a bit of the "he tried to rally votes against me" clouding my judgment. Well, if the argument doesn't stick for other people that will be a good sign for me to explore other possibilities. But I still find it suspicious that he attacks the first person who started voting for MNG once it looked like MNG might be in the clear.

[Lewwyn]

Commodore post this last night:

So theorizing here that Gaspar in his rage-quit anger is acting out about a packmember getting dogpiled randomly (not all that random, sorry MNG), do we want to go for the easy lynch of another white wolf, or should we search for the other pack?

I have never seen a more contrived, "be cool, just be cool" post. You survived the lynch but you sound as nervous as ever, Commodore.

[Injera]

I have never seen a more contrived, "be cool, just be cool" post.

Actually, what do you mean by "be cool, just be cool?" Like, panic when you've been pulled over by the cops with drugs in your car, or more "hey, my fly is down, I'll discreetly zip it back up and odds are no one noticed."

[Lewwyn]

Actually, what do you mean by "be cool, just be cool?" Like, panic when you've been pulled over by the cops with drugs in your car, or more "hey, my fly is down, I'll discreetly zip it back up and odds are no one noticed."

The former. I mean if you read the posts that come before and the posts that come after, the tone of Commodores is very different. It feels as though he's trying to calming interject himself into a conversation while making the least waves possible. The quote is all one sentence dragged out with lots of qualifiers and starts with "Soooo ...." Others may disagree that there's anything wrong, but if I take this post and I couple it with the silent + plus nervous catch up posts he made on Day 1, then I think we've got another wolf.

[Injera]

It feels as though he's trying to calming interject himself into a conversation while making the least waves possible.

Yeah, Mardoc had a much better read on him than I did when he said that Commodore's posts showed that he was following the game's situation closely but not trying to give anything back. And there's a real pomposity to that "catch this white wolf or hunt the next pack" that seems out of place for someone who wasn't right on the picks during the day to have- yes, he did end up voting for MNG but it he was the bandwagon's rear axle.

Hmm. I wanted to see what the Euro's would do before voting but I feel fine with this.

Commodore

[Bigger]

hmm, I haste to see a vig role go early, esp in the hands of uberfish. Ah well. lucky wolves .

Bigger, Gaspar's newbie advice isn't much of a town tell, since he's giving you conventional wisdom that any vet could share. It's also a way for a wolf to appear helpful and pro-town without having to fabricate accusations.

I thought of that, but I have found his advice useful, and haven't seen any real useful advice from other veterans. Still, I see yours and uber's point, I'll temper my defense of Gasper and just say I see no evidence more compelling of him being wolf than of anyone else.

Actually, I'm going to come at this from a different angle, Bigger. Recall how the voting went with MNG. He had an initial surge of votes against him, right after he had his odd display. Then votes went elsewhere, either because people were trying to get different targets, or because they wanted to get information on other people. MNG falls down from the top lynch candidate.

Have you had the chance to read the threads on any previous WW's? Do so if you have the time. I actually think MNG's fate was set in the first 18 hours. I decided to vote for him before I actually did, anyway, and I'm pretty sure uberfish made up his mind before he cast the vote. It does absolutely no long term good for a village to dogpile on a wolf 12 hours into a 48 hour day and keep their votes there - 3 days from now we might be able to get a lot of info from the switching around one day one - and more importantly, if we leave the rope long enough, we might get a second wolf to hang himself. There are enough veteran players here that realize this, I wouldn't be surprised if several of them switched their vote OFF of MNG after the realized he was wolf, with the intent of switching it back before the deadline.

Further, Zak would have picked up on this. If he was wolf, he certainly would have tried to derail it, perhaps focusing on Rowain, but is smart enough to see it wasn't going to work and MNG was dead anyway - hence switching before the dogpile was "official."

Regardless, MNG obviously was told to STFU by a wolfmate - hence his disappearence from posting day 2.

I can believe you nailed the best man's speech, Bigger. That's a pretty slick way to bus your buddy while setting me up for the fall. "I was switching to MNG regardless." Of course you were... right after I switched and made it 6-4. Before that, it was tied 5-5, but MNG had not voted yet and could save himself. He was not lost until I made the switch.

If I'm on MNG's team, why did I suddenly abandon the Tasunke wagon after successfully pushing him well into the lead?

Because there wasn't enough traction, obviously. I'm not sure if you could have gotten Tasunke lynched before his reveal, but there's no way you could have gotten him lynched after his reveal. And also, perhaps, because you are sharp enough to play a wolf the same way you would play a villager.

I was convinced of MNG before I prodded you - but I wasn't sure yet what to think of Rowain's accusations of your link to MNG. I wanted a clarification or further analysis of your accusation of Rowain (which I didn't get - and still see no reason to think Rowain is scum over any random player), and your reason for suspecting MNG (which I wasn't satisfied with either).

[Bigger]

In the spirit of my previous post, I'm going to back off Zak for a bit .

I'm starting to turn a bit, Commodore[/quote] may be scummy after all. Let's see how he reacts to the pressure.

p.s. Pindicator - just make another post to say you cross posted. Double posting isn't as frowned upon in games like this (where editing is a nono) like they would be in most threads.

[pindicator]

Have you had the chance to read the threads on any previous WW's? Do so if you have the time. I actually think MNG's fate was set in the first 18 hours. I decided to vote for him before I actually did, anyway, and I'm pretty sure uberfish made up his mind before he cast the vote. It does absolutely no long term good for a village to dogpile on a wolf 12 hours into a 48 hour day and keep their votes there - 3 days from now we might be able to get a lot of info from the switching around one day one - and more importantly, if we leave the rope long enough, we might get a second wolf to hang himself. There are enough veteran players here that realize this, I wouldn't be surprised if several of them switched their vote OFF of MNG after the realized he was wolf, with the intent of switching it back before the deadline.

Yeah, I've been spending my free time with diablo 3 beta... I'll try to read the older stuff, but it's insightful to know that vets already knew MNG was gonna get lynched by the 12 hour mark.

Further, Zak would have picked up on this. If he was wolf, he certainly would have tried to derail it, perhaps focusing on Rowain, but is smart enough to see it wasn't going to work and MNG was dead anyway - hence switching before the dogpile was "official."

What doesn't fit for me here is that MNG's first vote was against Zak. Is this some kind of wolf tactic to feign a fight on the first day? I'm not so sure that Zak and MNG were working together.

p.s. Pindicator - just make another post to say you cross posted. Double posting isn't as frowned upon in games like this (where editing is a nono) like they would be in most threads.

Yeah, I had a chat with NH about this too. I thought I had seen other people do this but I was mistaken. He advised me to use the Preview Post button

[pindicator]

I'm going to add this to my evidence against Ichabod. Post 117 from MNG

Save me time please? Why do you prefer Ichabod?

This is right in the thick of MNG's lashing out and when he would naturally be looking for a target to get other votes onto. This is right after he did his "let's not spread out the vote but let's also vote for Bigger too" post, and he's in the lead by a healthy margin. So why does he take the time to defend Ichabod from Sareln?

[Catwalk]

I have to run, just got up and am heading out for church. Wanted to add a small suggestion to pindicator's useful table: Colour-code MNG white, and uberfish green. Pick a friendly colour symbolizing neutrality to use on everybody else. Probably black for the other wolf pack later. This will be a lot of use later on, if you keep tallying the votes.