MJW (ya that one) Wrote:I think people who don't read the thread aggersively like hapazard should be mod-killed. It is pretty clear that Rowain is a werewolf. But hapazard will not see it. This is really not fair to the village.
How about people who give away their baner role within 3 hours of the game starting? :neenernee
scooter Wrote:How about people who give away their baner role within 3 hours of the game starting? :neenernee
Um. I wanted to role-claim because I wanted the powerroles to come together as quickly as possible. I guessed that the village had one more power role because 6 wws is an awful lot. I guessed that the wolfs would not be aggeseive enough to hit me until the seer (s) was/where outed...
fire&ice' Wrote:tonight Mr. Nice Guy was eaten in the night he was
villager
Can anyone explain this to me? I thought for sure Lewwyn was dead this past night, being the only confirmed Villager left in the game (even though he's not technically confirmed). I mean, really, MNG was doing plenty to stir the pot, but that only works against the 'Wolves. If Rowain is a Villager, it would be in the 'Wolves' best interest to keep him alive, so as to lynch an innocent Villager (what they absolutely need right now). If Rowain is a 'Wolf, all it does is lend weight to MNG's arguments. Either way, MNG is more valuable alive than dead. So... what gives? Do they honestly think Lewwyn is going to throw the game? Do they think Rowain has any chance of swinging a vote against Gaspar and making it stick?
I honestly don't understand this play by the 'Wolves. This is almost as perplexing to me as Lewwyn's lynch against me must have been (still be?) to the 'Wolves. It's as if they know they've lost, so why even keep up the pretense.
Anyway, unless I'm wrong it looks to me like this is a sure victory for the Village. In the event Rowain isn't a 'Wolf... well, then haphazard1 is the next most likely suspect, and he was MNG's cover for this entire game. If he's the last 'Wolf, I'm not sure what to make of this latest kill.
No matter what way I look at it I can't make sense of it. Maybe someone else has a better view, because frankly I don't see how MNG made a better target than Lewwyn.
I'm going to stick this in spoilers just in case there's 1 person out there still trying to avoid them, but I think we pretty much are all spoiled and know the end result now:
It confused me at first, but after thinking about it, it started to make some sense. Lewwyn is the obvious guy to kill, so Lewwyn gets killed, and then what? MNG (who has been right two days in a row) leads the rush to kill Rowain. The "obvious play" is pretty much a guaranteed game over. So why not take an unusual route and give a (admittedly long) shot at winning?
Killing MNG gives a few angles:
1. Why has Lewwyn survived 3 nights in a row now despite being the "most trusted villager"? He also led the worst lynch of the game. This could open the door to claiming to be the real second mason who has kept it quiet up until now. Again, serious longshot, but when you're about to lose, why not?
2. Could also spin it as an attempt to frame Rowain. Again, why would the wolf try to kill an unconfirmed rather than Lewwyn, unless they were trying to frame Rowain since there was some momentum behind lynching Rowain next.
3. Causes confusion in general. When you no longer have anything to lose, the most surprising/chaotic route is the way to go. Never know when someone will second guess themselves for no good reason.
Then it ends today. Haphazard will lynch the true mason or Rowain. Serdoa must have PMed Rowain. I think Gasper can carry Haphazard. This plan relies totally on Haphazard not reading the thread. If he read the thread he would know that Rowain was not part of the "trusted network" and can not be the second mason. If I where Rowain I would try to bus Serdoa and kill the second mason and Gasper. Then I would try to argue that M Nice guy is more wolfish then me.
scooter Wrote:I'm going to stick this in spoilers just in case there's 1 person out there still trying to avoid them, but I think we pretty much are all spoiled and know the end result now:
It confused me at first, but after thinking about it, it started to make some sense. Lewwyn is the obvious guy to kill, so Lewwyn gets killed, and then what? MNG (who has been right two days in a row) leads the rush to kill Rowain. The "obvious play" is pretty much a guaranteed game over. So why not take an unusual route and give a (admittedly long) shot at winning?
Killing MNG gives a few angles:
1. Why has Lewwyn survived 3 nights in a row now despite being the "most trusted villager"? He also led the worst lynch of the game. This could open the door to claiming to be the real second mason who has kept it quiet up until now. Again, serious longshot, but when you're about to lose, why not?
2. Could also spin it as an attempt to frame Rowain. Again, why would the wolf try to kill an unconfirmed rather than Lewwyn, unless they were trying to frame Rowain since there was some momentum behind lynching Rowain next.
3. Causes confusion in general. When you no longer have anything to lose, the most surprising/chaotic route is the way to go. Never know when someone will second guess themselves for no good reason.
I suppose you're right regarding Lewwyn. Killing Gaspar removes a power player, but does nothing to break up the MNG / hap voting bloc. Lewwyn, at this point, is wishy-washy enough to falter again, I think (especially against Serdoa), which is definitely in the 'Wolves favor. Killing haphazard1 removes someone who's predictable, but by far not a leader - no gain there. Killing Serdoa reveals the existence of the Possessed, and eliminates a potential target from Lewwyn's (and maybe Gaspar's) sights. So, when looked at through that light, Mr. Nice Guy does make the most sense.
1) Very long shot, but it worked for Lewwyn. As you say, when you're probably going to lose anyway, why not try something desperate and bold? Yeah, I can agree with that - it is the best chance the 'Wolves have. If Lewwyn goes for Serdoa, Serdoa will self-vote and Rowain will seal the deal - leaving Gaspar and haphazard1 with no way of stopping it. Of course, this still only draws out the inevitable by one turn, but again, why not?
2) Just so I'm clear, you're saying that by painting Rowain as framed, people will NOT vote for him? If that's your argument, it's a weak one. Of course, if you mean to say the 'Wolf is trying to frame Rowain to be lynched next... well, that throws my theory of him being a 'Wolf out the window.
3) Uh... yeah. 'Tis true, though - especially with Lewwyn still in the game, and haphazard1 missing his lead.
Well, thanks for the insight. I suppose I just hadn't thought it through fully enough, but it's kinda hard to put yourself in your enemies' shoes sometimes. I'd say it will be interesting to see what happens, but honestly everything from Kyan's death onward has been very uninteresting. Lynching me was a wasted day, and nothing truly noteworthy has happened since then - Irgy versus Mr. Nice Guy was the best in the last two days, but no one else weighed in much at all. Very disappointing. Oh well.
Edit:
Next question - can anyone make sense of what MJW is trying to say with his post directly above mine?
It's a move which surprised me as well. My best guess is framing Lewwyn as a suspiciously repeatedly-surviving mayor. Look forward to finding out.
Roland Wrote:Next question - can anyone make sense of what MJW is trying to say with his post directly above mine?
Just about. He explains what he thinks will happen. He reiterates his theory about haphazard not reading the thread. And he explains the strategy he would have taken instead.
Oh, and Irgy vs Mr Nice Guy was a joke. The village decided they were voting for me before he even accused me of anything. There was no evidence yay or nay, but we'd reached the stage of the game where that made me a relatively likely candidate. After that it was just him playing games with me.
2) Just so I'm clear, you're saying that by painting Rowain as framed, people will NOT vote for him? If that's your argument, it's a weak one. Of course, if you mean to say the 'Wolf is trying to frame Rowain to be lynched next... well, that throws my theory of him being a 'Wolf out the window.
Kind of. What I'm saying is that if Rowain gets lots of votes on him today, he could potentially come out and say something like this:
"Look guys, I'm obviously being framed. Why on earth would a wolf kill MNG, when Lewwyn is a much better choice? I can't make sense of it, but the only thing I can think of is the wolf recognized that there is some suspicion on me, so the easy way to ensure I get lynched today is to kill MNG. Besides, if I was a wolf, why would I be so obvious as to kill the guy who seems to suspect me most?"
Yeah it's weak, but when you were probably going to get killed anyways, it might be just enough to sway Lewwyn and hap, which is all he needs. Serdoa is the obvious wildcard, but I'm almost positive he'd help Rowain as well.
Roland Wrote:Edit:
Next question - can anyone make sense of what MJW is trying to say with his post directly above mine?
To be honest, I understand probably 40% of his posts.
As you say, when you're probably going to lose anyway, why not try something desperate and bold? Yeah, I can agree with that - it is the best chance the 'Wolves have. If Lewwyn goes for Serdoa, Serdoa will self-vote and Rowain will seal the deal - leaving Gaspar and haphazard1 with no way of stopping it. Of course, this still only draws out the inevitable by one turn, but again, why not?