Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[uberfish]

Possible reasons for the late Cull swing:

1) Wolf attempt to save MJW

MJW was a generally disliked villager so there'd be no need for wolves to draw so much attention to themselves saving him.

2) Wolf attempt to save PB

PB wasn't in that much danger and MJW was a VERY easy candidate to switch to if they wanted to make sure someone who wasn't PB died. If you buy this theory though, then Lewwyn, Roland and myself should be suspicious.

3) Cull's a wolf and one or more wolves were attempting to distance themselves from him, but the move got out of hand.

In this case the obvious suspect is Lewwyn who kept trying to start the bandwagon but switched away from Cull at the last moment.

4) Wolf attempt to create general confusion

Always possible but unprovable.

5) Villagers not happy with the current lynch targets

This was certainly the case for myself as I pointed out several posts before I switched. There just wasn't a decent alternative target until Roland bumped Cull up from 2 to 3 votes. If Cull is a villager, there might be a wolf or two along for the ride trying to keep MJW around as a distraction. If Cull is a wolf, see (3).

[zakalwe]

I meant to ask, various people have commented on how X has posted the most, or Y the least. is there an easy way to see how much everybody has posted in a given thread, or are people just going through and counting?

In the forum (the page listing the threads), there's a column listing the number of replies to each thread. If you click that number, you get a breakdown showing the number of posts for each player. If you click the post count of a particular player, you get a listing of all of those posts. Very handy. Just keep in mind that some people write much longer posts than others, so post count does not tell it all.

The true wolf indicator you may want to look for is low-content posts, such as this question you just posted. And (checking for cross-posts) look at the rush of people to answer your question with another low-content post!

(No, I don't consider this a highly accurate indicator, or I wouldn't be revealing it just yet.)

[Jkaen]

Ok, thanks for that it should help. Seems I am lower down the list than I thought I was, better get a few more posts in of such high quality as this one in order to avoid suspicion!

[Rowain]

2) Wolf attempt to save PB

PB wasn't in that much danger and MJW was a VERY easy candidate to switch to if they wanted to make sure someone who wasn't PB died. If you buy this theory though, then Lewwyn, Roland and myself should be suspicious.

Yep MJW was convenient but perhaps keeping MJW in and kill (villager?)Cull was far better for the wolves. MJW would always be a good target and always draw votes like sugar draws flies.
It was Roland you and sandover who started the bandwagon (Although Meiz and Lewwyn had voted Cull first it didn't get much momentum). Those 3 and especially the Mardoc/scooter duo-switch put Cull into danger.

Or Cull is a wolf with and it was planned to kill him with a bandwagon to claim: 'Hey we started bandwagon against a wolf so we have to be innocent' and Lewwyns switch destroyed that plan.

[Lewwyn]

Heh, guess I just throw monkey wrenches everywhere.

I like the discussion, a lot of pretty good theories and they are all being discussed at night, wow. Been awhile since the village has dared come out at night for fear of giving the wolves something to inform their decision on who to eat.

[Serdoa]

Rowain, from the two games played till now I think one can safely assume that the wolves won't gamble on Day1. Yes it would maybe be better for them if another villager as MJW gets killed but do you really think they would actively do the necessary switches themselves? Really? I could believe that on, don't know, Day 6 or 7, when several villagers are maybe outstanding in there performance and the wolves want to get rid of them and even then they would probably only join in and not really start something. But acting so obvious on Day1? There is just not enough gain in a concerted action in my opinion.

[Irgy]

So you've come to the conclusion that there will be as many wolves on these bandwagons as would be expected by random chance? How exactly does this help us catch them?

Well, just because it's the most likely by-chance distribution doesn't mean it would be useless to know for sure that it's the right one. For isntance later when we've picked up 2 wolves from one category and none from another, we know it's better to look in the other category because they probably would have spread themselves out.

Of course voting in a way that exactly fits random chance (including for instance some chance of piling on somewhere by co-oincidence, but usually being spread out) is exactly what the wolves should be doing. If they do it perfectly then we've got nothing. We just have to hope that they don't, and that we can pick up on their mistakes, either in the voting or elsewhere.

[Rowain]

Rowain, from the two games played till now I think one can safely assume that the wolves won't gamble on Day1.

May I remind you that sandover started a bandwagon against me on Day1. Had Roland not intervened I would have been lynched right there by a BW started by a wolf.
I'll also add that I was one early voter to lynch sandover (4th IIRC) on the same day. Had sandover not provided a really good and believed reason to not vote for him I would have stayed on him too. So wolves will gamble and will lynch one of their own if they see it as a low risk high reward action

[Serdoa]

No, Sandover will do that because Sandover is highly aggressive But I agree that I cannot be sure that wolves won't be as aggressive as you said. So, should we then vote for Roland? Or what would you propose? Because really I am simply not having a clue how to go forward from here. I do question if someone writes something which I believe is to be viewed differently (as with you Rowain) but other then that I have as much a clue as on Day 1 as to whom to vote for.

[Rowain]

No, Sandover will do that because Sandover is highly aggressive But I agree that I cannot be sure that wolves won't be as aggressive as you said. So, should we then vote for Roland? Or what would you propose? Because really I am simply not having a clue how to go forward from here. I do question if someone writes something which I believe is to be viewed differently (as with you Rowain) but other then that I have as much a clue as on Day 1 as to whom to vote for.

Basically thats all there is to do: Sit down analyze, form theories and consider the facts. Do they fit yes/no?
If no discard theory and make a new one. Oh and lots of discusion because discussions and vote-switches might reveal clues for the next theory.
About whom to vote for? Well currently it is nighttime so we have to wait whom the wolves eat. As that may or maynot change a theory.