Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[Sareln]

I was wrong. But I'm still right about the 8) issue "8 )" makes a smile face.

No real way around that other than a formatting change. The forum does have a LIST=1 command that looks very nice if you're inclined to do the formatting.

[Ug the Barbarian]

Ok finally caught up on the thread (until I started writing this)

Am I missing something? Did I call out Meiz earlier and simply forget? Now you're making me want to re-read my own posts! They took forever to write, and now you want me to re-read them?!



Happy now?



Ok... Now I'm even more confused. At first I wanted to know why you chose Meiz. Now I want to know why you chose Sunrise over Meiz, because the only evidence I see right now against Sunrise is:

1) He's the most quiet person we have right now (his computer blew up - mine did two 3 months ago; it sucks to have that happen)
2) He makes a very interesting post about his Mayor running, which does nothing - to me - but raise him on my list of people to keep an eye on. Nothing damning, but no salvation, either.

So... yeah. Care to explain? I'm deeply curious. As far as I can see, Meiz is one of our best candidates for 'Wolf - Sunrise is WAY too much of an unknown at this point, and I want to hear what he has to say.

In answer to your questions, I initially chose Meiz mostly because of other people's suspicions to see what his reaction would be.

Once it was pointed out the Sunrise has posted so little, I moved my vote as that seemed to be a very wolfish thing to do from WW1. This was before anyone had mentioned computer issues etc and I wanted to see what his response was.

I'm prepared to give Sunrise a little slack for this vote if its the case but I'm reminded on Ilios having issues with limited availability in WW1 and look where that lead.

That said, I still think the arguements presented so far for both Meiz and Gaspar are far from conclusive but probably the best available. I'll see where they go over the next few hours before committing.

No Vote

[Roland]

(Apparently I like singing in my head and putting that in the title of my posts when I'm half-asleep.)

Lynch Votes:
5 = Meiz: Lewwyn, Gaspar, Sunrise089, Roland, MJW
5 = Gaspar: Dantski, Irgy, haphazard1, Mr. Nice Guy, Rowain
4 = Sunrise089: Uberfish, Scooter, Meiz, Luddite
1 = Serdoa: Kyan

No Votes:
Sareln
Selrahc
Serdoa
Ug the Barbarian

Summary of Changes:
MJW: Voted for Kyan, switched to Sunrise089, switched to Meiz
Ug the Barbarian: Voted for Meiz, switched to Sunrise089, switched to No Vote
Serdoa: Voted for Sunrise089, switched to Kyan, switched to No Vote

Sequence of Events:
1) Uberfish: Voted for Sunrise089
2) MJW: Voted for Kyan
3) Scooter: Voted for Sunrise089
4) Lewwyn: Voted for Meiz
5) Gaspar: Voted for Meiz
6) MJW: Switched to Sunrise089
7) Ug the Barbarian: Voted for Meiz
8) Ug the Barbarian: Switched to Sunrise089
9) Meiz: Voted for Sunrise089
10) Kyan: Voted for Serdoa
11) Serdoa: Voted for Sunrise089
12) Luddite: Voted for Sunrise089
13) Dantski: Voted for Gaspar
14) Sunrise089: Voted for Meiz
15) Serdoa: Switched to Kyan
16) Roland: Voted for Meiz
17) Serdoa: Switched to No Vote
18) Irgy: Voted for Gaspar
19) MJW: Switched to Meiz
20) haphazard1: Voted for Gaspar
21) Mr. Nice Guy: Voted for Gaspar
22) Rowain: Voted for Gaspar
23) Ug the Barbarian: Switched to No Vote

[Selrahc]

No real way around that other than a formatting change. The forum does have a LIST=1 command that looks very nice if you're inclined to do the formatting.

Aside from that, it is pretty easy to get around unintended smilies by wrapping things in noparse tags. [noparse]8)[/noparse]

I'm going to get a vote together in a little bit.

[Kyan]

Hmm, ok, very persuasive evidence on both Gaspar and Meiz. I still think Serdoa is a wolf but chances are that at least one of the above two are also.

Serdoa- i'll come back to you tomoro my friend. For now, i think Meiz comes accross as the more suspicious of the two. (Gaspar, you know owe me a preferential settling agreement in pbem12 ! :neenernee ). I'll watch this carefully tonight though as this is a tough call between the two.

Sunrise isn't faking PC problems as he has been having issues with his PBEM and pitboss games also. Sure, he might be using a very elaborate strategy but i know sunrise as a person bettwe than that. Causing inconvenience to other players in his multiplayer games because of the werewolf one? Not a chance. There are plenty of beasts to hunt, we can decide on sunrise's innocence once he's back.

[Ug the Barbarian]

Ok this is my personal view of suspects to date - which will probably get me hung or eaten but hey its only a game

Known Villagers : Cyneheard (eaten), myself (obviously)

Probable Villagers : MJW, Sareln, Kyan

Possible Wolves : Mr Nice Guy, Gaspar, Meiz

Known Wolves : Sandover (hung)

[luddite]

Ok I've been thinking about this all day, and I'm still not sure where to go.

I do think that Sunrise has been suspiciously absent, and the way so many people voted for him for mayor was quite weird. However, I also know that he doesn't log in to pitboss much, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

I think Meiz was arguing just a bit too strongly to save Sandover and vote for someone else. All the evidence for this has been presented in excruciating details by Roland. So I'm changing my vote to Meiz.

[Meiz]

I've gone again through most of the posts and noticed that it's much easier to identify likely innocents than likely suspects Again it's impossible to say anything for sure, but here are my guesses:

Innocents:

It's important to note that Sandover tried to get Rowain killed in the beginning. When this fact is added with Rowains posts in general, I am fairly sure of his innocence.

I also find scooters, haphazards and uberfish's posts very helpful and to me it seems likely that they are villagers as well.

MJW is quite likely the Baner.

When suspicion arises towards Sandover, Kyan switches his vote for him very early and sticks with it (#153). I also find his post #287 convincing, so I will list him as a likely innocent as well.

Sareln is likely innocent based on his actions.

I also list Roland in this group. I just can't see him being a wolf at the moment. Generally his posts have been very helpful, and he did guess Sandover right and started the dogpile against him.

Neutral:

Reading through the posts, I notice Gaspar also making a quick switch against Sandover (#155). He did change his vote later, but this still makes me wonder if he is a wolf or innocent. Another fact is that Gaspar jumped against Rowain earlier (#100). I'm not convinced either way at the moment.

Lewwyn. I actually count him as neutral, mainly because of his post against Sandover (#156). His vote against him came quite early, when it was far from certain that Sandover would be lynched.

[strike]Sunrise[/strike] hasn't posted, but that can partially be explained with his computer problems. So I will have to unvote him now.

---

I actually have no certainty of anyones guilt at the moment, so I'll just have to come back to that later.

[uberfish]

Well, now that that's out of the way, let me cut to the chase: I'm seeing a trend here, and a big window opening for the 'Wolves to take out 2 Villagers in one go. Allow me to explain:

- Dantski fires off the first shot at Gaspar. I can't say he didn't have his reasons, nor am I accusing Dantski of being a 'Wolf - as far as I'm concerned, he's 100% neutral. 5 accusations were thrown out within the first few hours of the Day, so it's not like he's jumping the gun here, either.
- Irgy follows up with his own take on things, some time later. More reasoned arguments than Dantski, I believe, and he's proven to be fairly level-headed thus far - for all that we can read of him given his low posts. Much like Dantski, he's firmly in the neutral camp for me.
- What follows is what truly disturbs me: 3 people whom I strongly suspect to be Villagers all pile on, in succession, to Gaspar. Now, I don't think there's any collusion going on behind the scenes there - or at least, I've not seen any reason to suspect there has been. However, that doesn't change the bottom line: Gaspar has gone from a nobody shot-in-the-dark to a real potential kill, and that worries me.

I don't follow this argument. If 3 people on your trusted village list vote for Gaspar and you believe no funny business is going on - shouldn't that make you more suspicious of Gaspar not less? I mean you already think he's 65% likely to be a villager, which implies that he's slightly suspicious already as if you pick someone at random they're 74% likely to be a villager.

As for Meiz, quite a few people didn't want to take a 50/50 risk of killing Sandover if he was baner. Including Sareln, including myself, and including you. But you're convinced Meiz is a wolf because he argued against the 50/50.

Sorry Roland but I think your PM network has been infiltrated by wolves at this point because your arguments made a lot more sense on the first day. And I think Gaspar might well be one given his connection to your MJW flip.

[Lewwyn]

I don't follow this argument. If 3 people on your trusted village list vote for Gaspar and you believe no funny business is going on - shouldn't that make you more suspicious of Gaspar not less? I mean you already think he's 65% likely to be a villager, which implies that he's slightly suspicious already as if you pick someone at random they're 74% likely to be a villager.

As for Meiz, quite a few people didn't want to take a 50/50 risk of killing Sandover if he was baner. Including Sareln, including myself, and including you. But you're convinced Meiz is a wolf because he argued against the 50/50.

Sorry Roland but I think your PM network has been infiltrated by wolves at this point because your arguments made a lot more sense on the first day. And I think Gaspar might well be one given his connection to your MJW flip.

I believe what Roland's implying in his post is that now that 3 suspected villagers have moved to Gaspar, it creates an opportunity for the wolves to switch to an innocent and save their comrade, Meiz.

You are proving the theory Uber, and you're just the first. We shall now see more people begin to swing to Gaspar. These are possible wolves attempting to use the cover of innocents. As we saw in the Sandover lynch, there's a lot of tension and the votes are close. This is because wolves can subtly shift the odds and form voting blocs against a consensus. Any wolf lynch will be difficult. The Meiz lynch will prove to be extremely difficult and possibly not go through. This is because the villager community is split over Gaspar and Meiz. Gaspar created too easy a fall guy with his relatively antagonistic posts. While I do not fully trust him, the swing against him is proving to me his innocence by the hour.

You may also say, "well the same could be said for lynching Meiz!" I will respond, I've always been suspicious of Meiz and made that clear since Day 1. Nothing he has done has ever made me less suspicious, only more so. I only hope others can come to the same conclusions as myself. This is feeling like the Sandover lynch to me. I heartily endorse it.

Uber your post is full of misdirection, pointing toward Roland being confused and not making sense. Implying greater sins than fallabilty (WW influence). Then you move straight to the expected vote, away from Meiz. Also I encourage people to notice the two step process of vote swinging used by Meiz and Ug. They know who they will vote for, but they are using a "no vote" buffer between swings in order to appear casual and create a look of innocence. I wasn't suspicious of Ug until this move, but it raises a flag for me.

Meiz I suspect will simply vote for Gaspar down the line and thats fine. He's entitled to try and save himself while lynching a "potential werewolf". One thing is for sure, people do not slip up often in this thread (not including MJW) so reading between the lines and between the posts is important.