[PB25-SPOILERS] The Lunacy of the Reign of HAK Continues

[HitAnyKey]

Ok, I just logged in and doublechecked. His Axe has 25% fortify. The Archer has no fortify. So next turn it would have the 5%.
I did also just figure out how to sim it. Just make a city with the necessary unit in it for an opponent. End turn 5 times (and the AI won't move the unit out of the city...most likely). So I at least run it a few times just out of curiosity.
Btw, where's this combat calculator you are referring to? Also looking in game right now, those percentages are slightly off.

vs the 0% fort CG1 Archer:
C1 (with Shock) Axe - 61%
Chariot - 19%
C1 Chariot - 23.7%

vs the 5% fort CG1 Archer:
C1 (with Shock) Axe - 59.2%
Chariot - 17.8%
C1 Chariot - 22%

Unpromoted Axe would default against the 25% Axe - 21.3% (so can't attack first with unpromoted axe)

EDIT: Just built it in a SIM and added the percentages for having the Archer with 5% fort.

[HitAnyKey]

Just ran a few sims:

SIM 1:
Shock Axe attack Archer, C1 Chariot attack C1 Chariot, Chariot attack Axe, Axe attack Axe. Shock Axe died at his 60%, C1 chariot died at his 50%, Chariot died at his 77.7%, and then the last Axe finally killed the Axe....leaving the wounded Archer&Chariot and me with just the one Axe. That gives a possible RNG very bad outcome.

SIM 2:
C1 Chariot vs Archer (died, but wounded archer), Shock Axe won 50% coin flip against fortified Axe, Axe won 69.9% vs chariot, Chariot cleaned up by taking out the wounded Archer. Result...one dead chariot, one razed city

SIM 3:
C1 Chariot won his 22% vs archer, Shock Axe won his coin flip again, Axe won his 69.9% vs Chariot. Best possible outcome.

SIM 4:
C1 Chariot vs Archer (died, but wounded archer), Shock Axe lost 50% coin flip against fortified Axe, Axe lost 69.9% vs chariot, Chariot killed wounded Chariot. Result...2 wounded units left, me only with Chariot. Sending in Axe from Anxious (after Archer gets there) might allow for razing on following turn (depending on reinforcements and how wounded they actually are).

SIM 5:
C1 Chariot vs Archer (died, but wounded archer), Shock Axe lost 50% coin flip against fortified Axe, Axe won 69.9% vs chariot, Chariot killed wounded Archer. Result..1 wounded Axe left, me only Axe & Chariot.

SIM 6:
C1 Chariot won his 22% vs archer, Shock Axe won his coin flip again, Axe won his 69.9% vs Chariot. Best possible outcome....take 2.

SIM 7:
C1 Chariot vs Archer (died, but wounded archer), Shock Axe won 50% coin flip against fortified Axe, Axe won 69.9% vs chariot, Chariot cleaned up by taking out the wounded Archer....take 2.

And with that I'm done with SIMs for a bit as I actually got some work to do now.

Basically it seems like it's all going to come down to the coin flip of my Shock Axe vs his 25% Fortified Axe. If I lose, the city stands and I likely won't be able to get enough new units over there to finish it off before he either promotes/heals his units and/or gets more defenders in place. So yeah, this whole thing is going to be the result of a simple coin flip.
I did just realized that I only tried the order of SIM 1 that one time. The rest were all a different order of attacks with the C1 Chariot going first. Not sure exactly what the various results are if the Shock Axe actually wins against the Archer.

[MindyMcCready]

Btw, where's this combat calculator you are referring to? Also looking in game right now, those percentages are slightly off.

Tried to attach it but it's got macros.

All glory for the calculator goes to Cynehead. I'll try to find where I got it from.

[MindyMcCready]

And with that I'm done with SIMs for a bit as I actually got some work to do now.

Basically it seems like it's all going to come down to the coin flip of my Shock Axe vs his 25% Fortified Axe. If I lose, the city stands and I likely won't be able to get enough new units over there to finish it off before he either promotes/heals his units and/or gets more defenders in place. So yeah, this whole thing is going to be the result of a simple coin flip.
I did just realized that I only tried the order of SIM 1 that one time. The rest were all a different order of attacks with the C1 Chariot going first. Not sure exactly what the various results are if the Shock Axe actually wins against the Archer.

Yes, we need average or better luck on our side.

If the first chariot fails to damage the Archer,....well I think that we have to back off, resort to giving bad looks and or preventing GJ from hooking up his corn. The outcome of this battle will do a lot to determine the rest of the game,...so make sure that you breathe deep and maybe go for a walk before you make a big play.

We'll need the city axe to back up of course. I thought that your archer was overkill but I'm really glad you built it right now.

[HitAnyKey]

Had a few minutes, so did a couple more SIMs of Shock Axe going first (against the Archer)....since I had only tried that one once so far:

SIM 1: Shock Axe won 59.2% vs Archer, C1 Chariot kills C1 Chariot in coin flip, Chariot won 77.7% vs Axe. City Razed

SIM 2: Shock Axe won 59.2% vs Archer, C1 Chariot kills C1 Chariot in coin flip, Chariot lost 77.7% vs Axe, Axe then kills Axe. City Razed

SIM 3: Shock Axe won 59.2% vs Archer, C1 Chariot lost to C1 Chariot in coin flip, Chariot won 77.7% vs Axe, Axe then kills Chariot. City Razed

SIM 4: Shock Axe won 59.2% vs Archer, C1 Chariot lost to C1 Chariot in coin flip, Chariot won 80.5% vs Chariot, Axe cannot attack this turn because enemy Chariot was not wounded enough by C1 Chariot for next Chariot to default against enemy Axe at 21.3% odds. Need to wait for next turn for Chariot to kill Axe to raze city.

SIM 5: Shock Axe lost 59.2% vs Archer, C1 Chariot lost to C1 Chariot in coin flip, Chariot won 77.7% vs Axe, Axe then kills Chariot. Archer remaining at 0.3 health to be hopefully killed next turn.

SIM 6: Shock Axe won 59.2% vs Archer, C1 Chariot lost to C1 Chariot in coin flip(dealing no damage), Chariot won 32.2% vs Axe, Axe cannot attack. City razing has to wait.

SIM 7: Shock Axe lost 59.2% vs Archer, C1 Chariot won to C1 Chariot in coin flip, Chariot won 77.7% vs Axe, Axe then kills Archer. City Razed.

SIM 8: Shock Axe won 59.2% vs Archer, C1 Chariot kills C1 Chariot in coin flip, Chariot won 77.7% vs Axe. City Razed (same as SIM 1)

SIM 9: Shock Axe lost 59.2% vs Archer, C1 Chariot lost to C1 Chariot in coin flip, Chariot won 77.7% vs Axe, Axe then kills Chariot. Archer still alive to fight another turn with CG2 promotion. In this SIM my Axe was not wounded and was able to promote to City Attack for 63.7% odds. It still died, and the remaining Chariot cleaned up. So I lost 2 Axes and 1 Chariot to raze the city. And that's only assuming no new defenders.

SIM 10: Shock Axe won 59.2% vs Archer, C1 Chariot kills C1 Chariot in coin flip, Chariot lost 77.7% vs Axe. Axe won 87.2% vs wounded Axe. City Razed

So out of 10 run-throughs (11 if I include the one from the last post) of Axe vs Archer first, I was able to raze the city 6 times. And at least 2 of the others had the remaining units so wounded that it would be an easy cleanup without any reinforcements. Only 1 or 2 were complete disasters due to RNG.
Basically if I go C1 Chariot first, the Axe vs Axe is a coin flip. If I got Axe first, the C1 Chariot vs C1 Chariot is a coin flip. But the Chariot first is near suicide just to wound the archer, whereas the Axe first actually has decent odds of killing the archer. So if next turn he has just those 3 units in the city and did not try to attack out at me, that is what I'll be doing.
Now to just wait for retap to buy a new PC and for GJ to play his turn.

[HitAnyKey]

Hmmm.....something I just noticed while looking at my posts....

Look at those two images. The first one shows a forest 1W of his city....the second one the forest is gone. Which means he just finished a chop....which likely means a chop into a defender, likely an Archer.
Which basically means there is no way I can take the city next turn, and if my Shock Axe dies attacking the first Archer I'll need to stop right there and retreat, asking for peace. I think no matter what I should still try to attack with the Axe....maybe?
Or do we just call this a failed attempt and hope he accepts peace with us? And we just send our settler to that hill the barb spear is currently standing on. That would certainly save us lots of immediate death and destruction. Also means we then won't be able to attack him again until Catapults.

And over on the east, I noticed that Grimace put a Chariot/Worker on the hill 1W of his horses. I'm hoping the Chariot is there just as defensive protection for his worker, for the worker to mine the hill. Will see what the worker starts doing next turn. If Grimace figures out I'm at war with GJ (don't think they've met yet though), that might be enough for him to try something. Though Sore has it's Walls and will get another Axe when the turn rolls, such that it will have 2 Axes, 2 Archers, and 1 Spear at the city.

[MindyMcCready]

Wow, good eye. I think that pretty much means that it's time to call off the attack. No use wasting a shock axe. Any unit in there and we're done. It's remotely possible that the hammers already went into infrastrucutre so I guess we'll see. But barring that low odds possibility, Anxious is our new choke point and not a very good one at that. We'll have to be careful with the defending axe in the event that it's an impi that could try to raze Anxious.

I'm more than a little bitter and don't see any reason for peace. At the bottom of the scoreboard we have a lot less to lose than the #2 position. It's not satisfying enough really, but it'll help if we can turn that city into a money pit for him. Maybe rip up a fishing net or two as well while we wait to have another go at him when we get cats. I also think that I would get some satisfaction by using a chariot to rip up the farm in the event that he does manage to farm the corn. And then trade some units. We'll have to be open to entertainment options. :LOL:

A settler to that hill is inadvisable. We'll be stuck between GJ and Borsche with no safe way to reinforce. I'm afraid that we'll have to look to our alternatives. Borsche is also going to be a fact of life for us. IDK,...part of me thinks that the wet corn is worth it even if all the city every does is whip defenders until the end of time. But,...getting a permanent size 8+city with low military requiement is probalby better. I don't have a real opinion on that quite yet. Maybe we get 10T of peace with GJ so that we can settle that hill,...then rip up his farm and trade units.

As for Grimace,...I'm sure that he's debating attacking. Wouldn't he have met through maps? Regardless, we have to assume that he knows about our war. Probably kicking himself that he didn't whip out those G3s already. Why tech IW otherwise?

With 4 units in the city, it's not worth it on a rational level to keep attacking that city. We'd be better off REXing it up to stay safe from the burgenoining Master Commodore while doing what we can to make sure that the #2 player has no chance to win. Yeah,...I'm a little bit bitter since he really has no reason to plant 1 city on our land and cause us this much grief. Unless it's for our destruction of course meaning that we should vigorously pursue his. He could have easily focussed on our mutual long-term problem but he had to go make himself our short-term (now med-term) problem. BITTER,...Want to kill him,...but rationality means that we shouldn't. Maybe with swords.

IDK,...I really want to make this guy lose. I say that we send nice signals to Master Commodore indicating our support for his victory over the fiendish GJ. Good job to you on pursuing his destruction. [EDIT, despite the outcome]

[HitAnyKey]

Busy weekend for me, which worked out for retap having to keep the game paused while he searched for a new computer.
Anyway, we're rolling again...logged in to find a Peace Treaty offer from GJ. Declined it for now to take a look first:


As I guessed, that chop went into an Archer so not there is too much defense for me to easily take the city. And he sent his Galley eastward which could threaten my interior.
I'm going to get my coffee, think about some things, and then I'm 99% sure I'll offer the peace treaty back to him. I made an attempt to take the city, the timing didn't work, so now it's time to refocus on REXing and building up.
I'll also be sending the Settler to the Cows spot south of Stressed, and military down to the barb city to start working on that. Though I do see even halfway through your post you started considering the settling of that hill south of Anxious as being a good option again too. So I'll wait on moving the settler for a bit as well.

[HitAnyKey]

FYI, will be heading off to the chriropractor in a few minutes. So take your time offering any of your thoughts. I'll be back in about an hour to read them and then play the turn.
I really am actually tnrn right now between settling the hill south of Anxious or settling the Cow city south of Stressed. I'll probably have another settler from Hungry in about 6 or 7 turns, so it may not matter a whole lot either way. But certainly some things to think about.

[MindyMcCready]

I'm responding right now. Don't do anything quite yet please.