WW39. Escape from the Congo.

[zakalwe]

Sorry for being AWOL most of the day, was busy at a conference. Zak, for pretending like anyone would have actually cared that he "faked a posting restriction". Surely he doesn't think he would have actually earned votes for that reason with this (small) crowd, and hence his post was a meaningless belch of hot air masquerading as particularly meager analysis, even by D1 standards.

I did think I would earn votes for throwing out two premature town leans. I didn't think the fake post restriction would help, but like Novice says, that wasn't the main burp of the belch.

What was the point? That he was trying to provoke reactions with a customary D1 First Post Joke Post? Why would he expect to derive any useful intelligence that way?

Yes, I wanted to provoke reactions. Is that not helpful? As noted, I wasn't quite sure what to expect, but if I should hit two townies with my town leans then scum might be stressed out and feel the need to subvert my process of elimination before it got too far.

I'm not sure if Rowain's vote fits the bill, as it's more of a direct attack, and doesn't criticize the actual town reads:

A nice setup .

I would vote Lewwyn for voting me right from the start but revengevotes aren't usefull. So I prefer zakalwe for handing out townpoints already and budding up to novice and Lewwyn. (that he votes for me is purely coincidence ).

Gazglum's vote for Rowain comes a little closer, perhaps. He picks my side, while trying to gently undermine my town read on Novice. This is more along the lines of what I envisioned:

Farmer Glum checking in from Kentish countryside! Yes, chatty novice is usually nice novice, though I assume he will eventually notice this tell and change his style. In the meantime, rowain for not handing out enough town points.

AdrienIer just wanted more opinions, which is noncommittal, appeals to authority, and could be construed as scummy:

Almost 24h in, 3 people missing (Gazglum said he'd be away today), only events are Zak's town lean stuff and novice's activity and comments about role PMs and stuff, being pretty enthusiastic about everything. About the former, baiting in your first posts is not a bad way to start the day for town and I'd be willing to give Zak a tiny town lean on that. About the latter Zak says novice wouldn't be enjoying himself so much if he was scum, do the other vets agree ?

Of course, Novice and/or Lewwyn could be scum, which means that all of the above is just noise. Or it could be noise, regardless. But still I got the ball rolling, and maybe others can spot something that I missed.

I was on to them early on, actually.

[Gazglum]

Zak, why can't you construct a logical pairing and back it up with argument? You keep honing in on individuals: Adrien > Mattimeo > Zak, and each time appealing for others to join you on that person. You've bounced all over the place today. It is ludicrous sir! Ludicrous!

[Gazglum]

But the main point against you today, in my eyes, is that you switched from Adrien to Mattimeo, because Mattimeo voted you, even though Adrien was doing the same thing.

[Gazglum]

Obviously the above should Adrien > Mattimeo > Gaz. You are not taking the honourable seppuku.

[zakalwe]

You and AdrienIer make sense, and failing that I guess Mattimeo and Shadeun make sense.

Mattimeo/AdrienIer was my theory for a while but the voting pattern makes it less likely.

The rest of you keep eliminating pairs arbitrarily to support your conclusions. How is that better?

[zakalwe]

But the main point against you today, in my eyes, is that you switched from Adrien to Mattimeo, because Mattimeo voted you, even though Adrien was doing the same thing.

I didn't switch. Mattimeo was my first vote today. And I was discussing Matt/AdrienIer as a pair from the start of the day.

[Mattimeo]

We must plan how to find these werewolf scum!

[Gazglum]

The rest of you keep eliminating pairs arbitrarily to support your conclusions. How is that better?

Because eliminating impossible pairs allows us to hone in on the truth.

Again, I draw your attention to this:

Why is Shadeun + AdrienIer not feasible based on D1? Seems eminently feasible to me, and he wasn't very townish on D1.

Shadeun and Adrien is ABSOLUTELY unfeasible based on Day 1, because Shadeun would have been delivering what looked like a COMPLETELY UNNECESSARY killing blow on his partner right out of the gate. Thinking about the state of the game as a whole would have told you that immediately. The only way Cheradenine Zakalwe brings this up as a possible pair is because he is scum looking to muddy the waters.

[zakalwe]

I finally have some time to sit down with this again.

I wasn't so certain that Novice was innocent, so in that sense I'm glad he's dead. Shadeun was a stronger town lean for me. Need to reassess that now, of course.

Zak, I know you're bored of my questions, but here you mention scum pairs you suspect:

Since everybody has switched to discussing scum pairs I guess I will do the same. I think AdrienIer + Novice makes a lot of sense holistically speaking, closely followed by AdrienIer + Gazglum. Maybe AdrienIer + Shadeun works too, but I'm not getting scum vibes from Shadeun today.

You don't mention Rowain here. Does this mean you don't see him in a scum pair?

But then you say,

If AdrienIer flips innocent then I would likely turn back to Rowain and Shadeun. Gazglum and Novice could still be scum, but I mainly suspect them as AdrienIer's buddy.

So with Adrien innocent, what is the Rowain scenario?

Starting to slip my mind by now what exactly I was thinking, but yeah, I don't think I had Rowain paired with anyone specific in my mind. Just someone to reexamine if AdrienIer flipped town.

Zak's mistake

In a matter of 5 minutes, coming from asking novice to vote for me and not Bob

Why not AdrienIer?

to letting me live by switching to Bob

Took you long enough. Bob.

is actually more damning than the vote alone (which I can't complain about, I'm alive thanks to that).

Therefore I call this post during the night complete BS :

Rowain, I was waiting for AdrienIer to give me options by moving his vote. I didn't think anyone stood out as a clear mislynch so I wasn't willing to take so many chances. As for why I was still willing to move my vote, I didn't have a ton of confidence in any of my fellow AdrienIer voters

I think you wanted a clear majority of people on me (would have been 5/2/1/1 if novice had joined you and I hadn't moved last minute) to leave less trace. Because novice moving to me would have clearly reduced your options. Then, realizing that it wasn't going to happen you decided to keep me as easy meat for D2. Zak

This is a bad attack, which pushed me up into the lead quite opportunistically. Pretty much the only way you could take my "Why not AdrienIer?" question as a renewed push to lynch AdrienIer is if you're just diving back to skim for quotes that you can use without actually considering their context. And the conclusion is a stretch and a half. I couldn't get a clear enough majority (4:3) on AdrienIer so I decided to switch to make it 4:3 on Bob instead? Because AdrienIer is easy meat? Compared to Bob?

So yeah, AdrienIer continues to stand out for bad attacks, I think. AdrienIer/Gazglum still seems logical, and Gazglum was quick to get his vote in today. AdrienIer is also back to voting for Mattimeo, though. His illogical attack on day 1 was against Mattimeo, so it's possible the reason it didn't actually make sense is that he was just fudging the logic while attacking his buddy. Not sure why he would turn on his buddy at that particular time, though. But something was off there, and sticking his neck out just to grab towncred by defending Bob would also be kind of arbitrary.

Following that thread, Mattimeo was up to a big lead in the middle of day 2, and when pushed into committing to something he launched an attack on AdrienIer and me. And towards the end of the day, Rowain was set to hang, but AdrienIer had sudden doubts and put his vote back on Matt. And then Matt appeared with this:

I was all set to start agreeing with you, Gaz, but then Adrien showed his true colours

I have a bad feeling about this. Matt

current:
3 votes: Rowain (novice, Shadeun, Gazglum)
2 votes: AdrienIer (zakalwe, Mattimeo)
1 vote: Mattimeo (AdrienIer)
1 vote: novice (Rowain)

So essentially, he's saying that "I'm ready to lynch Rowain, just give me one moment to reaffirm my suspicion against AdrienIer first".

AdrienIer, what gave you the bad feeling about lynching Rowain?

Who do you think had a stronger motive for killing Novice? If nobody did, then it's a null tell.

I re-examined your infamous post 43 on my readthrough (not done yet). It's more compatible with you+Mattimeo than what I remembered. Your attack on Mattimeo is conditioned on Bob flipping as town, so that needs to happen first before it brings any heat to your buddy. Meanwhile you're saying "this must be the kind of thing Zak was looking for" as a way to encourage me to push back on Bob. Trying to set up a Zak/Bob confrontation.

And actually, you were moving your vote OFF Mattimeo in that post. You started the day pressuring him for lurking. When he eventually did post, it was a post that you strongly disagreed with, and yet you moved your vote.

[Gazglum]

Well, clearly we're into trolltown now anyway. If we're wrong Zak, we're wrong, and its been a super fun game for me.

Ms Glum informs me that it is time to watch Game of Thrones and 'are you STILL writing those posts?'. So I shall read along, but I will not be doing more big posts. I'm happy to wait for the writeup, happy to get a quick response too, whatever others want.