WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[scooter]

First off, GG Bob, Cyneheard, El Grillo, and Gaspar.


First, from a meta standpoint, I'm pretty confused as to what happened. I can piece together some of it, but I was under the impression this was a low-power game, but those results hint at quite a lot of powers out there. Either that or we just ... blew through them all at once? I'm a bit too out of date on WW roles to know more - I had to look up Hider on the wiki to have any idea what that was.


As for the actual interesting stuff... I'm not sure what to think. It's weird to me that Cyneheard was a wolf, but he kept his vote on Superdeath given how tight that vote was, and he could reasonably go with a "I'm just saving myself" vote on Bob. Superdeath isn't quite cleared, but he now seems like one of the safer town bets. I feel pretty good about the towniness of Meiz, Serdoa, and Naufrager because their votes on Cyneheard were really unnecessarily risky if they were wolves with how close it came. I'm not quite ready to ascribe the same benefit of the doubt to Lewwyn, who switched last-second when it ultimately didn't matter, which I could see both a villager or a wolf doing for different reasons.


The obvious wolf play was to vote for Bob since Cyneheard was up for a vote, but of course the wolves are not all going to do that. Clearly Cyneheard didn't. Feels nearly certain to be 1-2 wolf votes on Bob. We might reasonably guess there are no wolf votes on Cyneheard because it was close, and there were other options. There's one big caveat to that, though. If AdrienIer is a wolf, that might put them in an awkward spot of not wanting to all pile on Bob, but not wanting to get one of their own lynched if #2 and #3 were both up there. In that case, you might see them spread out a bit more and hold their breath.


I haven't gone through past posts or anything, but my current inclination based on all this is to lynch AdrienIer. He would have been my #2 choice last round, and the night actions make him look worse. Chevalier is another I'm curious about with his seeming throwaway vote, though it would be awfully sloppy for two wolves to both do that on the same target. I did think it was weird overall that we didn't coalesce onto the top 2-3 targets on Day 1, which I think is generally what you want to do as the village. Bob getting lynched with only 6/17 votes feels pretty bad.

[naufragar]

Kind of a trivial observation, but Cyne's aggression @SD makes me less suspicious of SD.

And town points to Lewwyn for starting the train on Cyneheard here. And no, Lewwyn, I'm not buttering you up.

Sorry to immediately backtrack, but if there are two scum factions, town points get revoked. (Mentioning vig and serial killer set ups but leaving aside multiple factions here isn't damning but made me reconsider.) Still, town points currently.

[Lewwyn]

Nauf what do you think of Scooter and Scooter's post here?

[Serdoa]

Kind of a trivial observation, but Cyne's aggression @SD makes me less suspicious of SD.

And town points to Lewwyn for starting the train on Cyneheard here. And no, Lewwyn, I'm not buttering you up.

Sorry to immediately backtrack, but if there are two scum factions, town points get revoked. (Mentioning vig and serial killer set ups but leaving aside multiple factions here isn't damning but made me reconsider.) Still, town points currently.

Lewwyn gets town-points;
Oh, wait he doesn't because before the post he got town-points for, he had not mentioned all possible meta-constellations;
But wait, he still gets town points for now, I guess because of the meta-uncertainty?

Covering all bases...

[Lewwyn]

My first instict is Pind scum. I think he played a classic scum day 1 game, participating and giving reads but non-committal, and avoiding aggression back from his targets. Then a concrete pinpointed attack on IMO easy target not near the lynch block (and avoiding easy badwagon on villager Bob). I said it day 1 already but his vote is perfect for Cyneheard save. Pindicator His self aware of it as well, but claiming Adrien did it :D

The adrien vote pulled people off Cyne, namely me and Rowain I think? And it let Adrien go to Bob to "save himself". Or maybe adrien is innocent and he chose Bob over Cyne?

I don't think Adrien had high hopes on starting to move people away from Cyneheard to Pind. I don't think he's persuasive enough to think that. His suspicion felt earnest, but of course I'm colored by the fact that I suspected Pind as well.

Could Adrien and Pindi both be scum? Or could both be innocent? You posted pretty quick out the gate, were you planning to vote pindi before the night results were announced?

[naufragar]

Nauf what do you think of Scooter and Scooter's post here?

I've got a meeting in literally 3 minutes, so this will be short and I'll return later (in which case it's better to shut up until I've got more time?).

The obvious wolf play was to vote for Bob since Cyneheard was up for a vote, but of course the wolves are not all going to do that. Clearly Cyneheard didn't. Feels nearly certain to be 1-2 wolf votes on Bob. We might reasonably guess there are no wolf votes on Cyneheard because it was close, and there were other options. There's one big caveat to that, though. If AdrienIer is a wolf, that might put them in an awkward spot of not wanting to all pile on Bob, but not wanting to get one of their own lynched if #2 and #3 were both up there. In that case, you might see them spread out a bit more and hold their breath.

I hate the bolded bit, even with the caveat. I said when I voted for Cyneheard that I thought that the wolves thought that the bus on Bob had gathered enough speed so they could hop off. Cyneheard, being a lynchable wolf, would be good cover if they needed brownie points later.

Serdoa, I see I'm cross posting with you. I'm sorry I can't respond immediately, and equally sorry that when I do, I'm going to say that I think you're one of the wolves that hopped from Bob to Cyneheard when he was a safe lynch. Brb.

[Meiz]

My first instict is Pind scum. I think he played a classic scum day 1 game, participating and giving reads but non-committal, and avoiding aggression back from his targets. Then a concrete pinpointed attack on IMO easy target not near the lynch block (and avoiding easy badwagon on villager Bob). I said it day 1 already but his vote is perfect for Cyneheard save. Pindicator His self aware of it as well, but claiming Adrien did it :D

The adrien vote pulled people off Cyne, namely me and Rowain I think? And it let Adrien go to Bob to "save himself". Or maybe adrien is innocent and he chose Bob over Cyne?

I don't think Adrien had high hopes on starting to move people away from Cyneheard to Pind. I don't think he's persuasive enough to think that. His suspicion felt earnest, but of course I'm colored by the fact that I suspected Pind as well.

Could Adrien and Pindi both be scum? Or could both be innocent? You posted pretty quick out the gate, were you planning to vote pindi before the night results were announced?

I'd say either one of them is wolf or both are innocent in which case my scum radar needs fixing. I think I might be giving a vibe where I think Adrien is sure town but that's not the case. Out of the two, Pind is my clear preference at the moment and it doesn't seem to me that they'd be together. Both have plenty of time today to do scum hunting to convince otherwise. But yeah, my top suspect was Pind already before the night results, and especially looking to see what Gaspar would do as I suspected he wasn't seriously willing to vote Pind yesterday (being silent on deadline). But that's a moot point now.

[Serdoa]

Nauf what do you think of Scooter and Scooter's post here?

The obvious wolf play was to vote for Bob since Cyneheard was up for a vote, but of course the wolves are not all going to do that. Clearly Cyneheard didn't. Feels nearly certain to be 1-2 wolf votes on Bob. We might reasonably guess there are no wolf votes on Cyneheard because it was close, and there were other options. There's one big caveat to that, though. If AdrienIer is a wolf, that might put them in an awkward spot of not wanting to all pile on Bob, but not wanting to get one of their own lynched if #2 and #3 were both up there. In that case, you might see them spread out a bit more and hold their breath.

I hate the bolded bit, even with the caveat. I said when I voted for Cyneheard that I thought that the wolves thought that the bus on Bob had gathered enough speed so they could hop off. Cyneheard, being a lynchable wolf, would be good cover if they needed brownie points later.

Serdoa, I see I'm cross posting with you. I'm sorry I can't respond immediately, and equally sorry that when I do, I'm going to say that I think you're one of the wolves that hopped from Bob to Cyneheard when he was a safe lynch. Brb.

So, should I comment now or do you come back later with actually anything that is not - yet again - misconstrued? Because what you ... forget ... to mention - not to say deliberately left out - is that I had gone through all Bob posts, voted him with good reasoning AND then 11 minutes later voted Cyneheard. At that point, Bob had 9 votes and in my post voting for Cyneheard I expressly mention that my vote on Bob does not change anything, that I would rather have you lynched but it doesn't seem likely to happen and so I want to pressure Cyneheard in some answers.

Basically: How can I be one of the wolves hopping from Bob to Cyneheard because Bob became a safe lynch, when I literally was on Bob for 11 minutes while he had already 8 votes and was clearly leading?

And just let me mention that as well: My vote put Cyneheard at 4, equal to SD. Without that vote, or one on you or SD instead, there would have been likely no discussion about Cyneheard, but rather if it is better to lynch a quiet newbie or an unwilling vet. So, would you like to accuse me for

a) trying to drive discussion?
b) voting for a wolf when he was not in a dangerous position?
b) voting for a wolf and putting him in a dangerous position?

[Commodore]

Okay, so if understand ElGrillo's role correctly, he hid behind either Cyneheard or Gaspar (both fine choices for scumminess IMO) and when his shield got gacked, so too did he. Logically, the other explanation is that we have three killing role/factions, which...is not a conclusion I like. Tough luck there ElGrillo.

Cyneheard's death makes sense as a vig kill; he was a lynch target with a legit train. His death definitely accelerates our process. So, good shot, vig. A serial killer is possible but I feel like the meta for a SK is that he wants to help the wolves more early, and the shot was pure village help.

Gaspar baffles me a bit as a target, he was definitely lynchable...I was going to vote for him. Unless it's a hilariously high-energy effort on a wolf-Lewwyn's part to clear himself? Or the wolves cottoned on to Gaspar's potential for a power-role? He needs to be examined. Good game Gaspar, you played well enough to get nightkilled.

I actually had the thought over the night that the low-switching end of Day 1 might mean we didn't have any wolves on the block at all, but that's clearly not the case.

The final tally of day 1 with colors:
Bob (6): Commodore,scooter,El Grillo, SD,GKC,AdrienIer
Cyneheard (5): Gaspar,Meiz,Serdoa,naufragar,Lewwyn
AdrienIer (3): pindi,Charriu,Rowain
SD (2): CMF,Cyneheard
Lewwyn (1):  Bob

My crazed pegboard self *really* wants to say that Lewwyn is still Gaspar's scum-buddy, but I'm worried about WIFOM on that one. Of the people who voted to lynch Bob, ElGrillo is blue, my PM is blue, and Superdeath's early clumsy play makes me lean town strongly on him. GKC is still giving me town leans, so William of Occam says we should start with Scooter or AdrienIer.

[Lewwyn]

What do you say about nauf, comm?