[Spoiler] RB Pitboss #2 - Shaka of Rome

[Shoot the Moon]

Any opinions on my logic? Am I being too conservative with the whip? Or can I get by with a couple of emergency whips once the war starts?

The real strength of whipping comes if you time a whip to complete right before you grow. For example, let's say you are size 6 and 4 food from growing to size 7 (and thus be unhappy). If you two pop whip that turn, you drop back do size 4 and get 60 hammers (roughly 1 and 1/2 praets). The very next turn you regrow to size 5. The city can then grow back to size 6 over the ten turns it takes the unhappiness to wear off,

You are essentially trading whatever that one citizen could have worked for 10 turns for 60 hammers. I doubt any tile you have (with the exception, perhaps, of the gold tile) could be worth 60 hammers over 10 turns.

[Whosit]

The real strength of whipping comes if you time a whip to complete right before you grow. For example, let's say you are size 6 and 4 food from growing to size 7 (and thus be unhappy). If you two pop whip that turn, you drop back do size 4 and get 60 hammers (roughly 1 and 1/2 praets). The very next turn you regrow to size 5. The city can then grow back to size 6 over the ten turns it takes the unhappiness to wear off,

You are essentially trading whatever that one citizen could have worked for 10 turns for 60 hammers. I doubt any tile you have (with the exception, perhaps, of the gold tile) could be worth 60 hammers over 10 turns.

Thanks. I'll try to keep track of my hammer income to see if it would make sense to whip at any given point.

Anyway, regarding the dotmap: I am a filthy liar. Maybe later!

Here's a summary of the Coalition news: We have five participants: Jowy, Dantski, Nakor/DMOC, Athlete/Kalin, and yours truly. Korea is being shut out, and the IKZ are either uninterested or two busy to respond. We're discussing the time table right now, and how to deal with India/the Killer Angels diplomatically. Jowy believes that the K.A. are gunning for him, which could be bad. It's getting a bit hard to keep track of everything with e-mails flying in from five civilizations, so it's still a bit chaotic. I'm trying to argue for a solid objective. Ideally the elimination of Sullla, but I'm willing to shoot for something lower. I'm not certain that I've made my real point, though, which is this: We need a clear objective of SOME kind just so we know where we are going. A plan that simply reads: Attack India is probably not going to fare that well. The Ottomans are more in favor of pillaging Sullla into the last millennium, though someone else would like to take him out completely. It may be hard to eliminate them, even with 5 civilizations because we won't have siege weapons. But even if we pillage every tile and leave, they could come back to haunt us later.

Anyway, noticed that I had trade routes with Greece, so I sent Jowy this message:

Dear Jowy,

It's good to have you with the Coalition. You are north of the Killer Angels, correct? My Scout may have missed you since he is hugging the inner coast for the moment. In any case, I share your concern over India's movements. Though I will include my thoughts in the next Coalition letter, here are a few ideas I came up with: Form a Mutual Defense Pact with Dantski and publicize it in the Players Thread (assuming that K.A. has access to it). Perhaps it will make them more hesitant to start a war if it might be on two fronts. Definitely clear all forests that are directly adjacent to your cities, and make sure that you have a strong road network connecting your cities. Because Sullla and Speaker have mounted units, Spearmen will be important, but so will Axemen. Swordsmen aren't much good on defense. If you have thought of this already, then just bear with me. In the event that they do attack before our own commences, I would be happy to offer tactical advice if you think it would be of any use.

By the way, I noticed that we have a possible trade route. I imagine that you have Sailing. I have offered you Open Borders both as a gesture of good will and as a chance for us both to benefit from some foreign trade routes. The Empire would be very grateful if you accepted. Unfortunately, it does not appear that I have any spare resources to offer you, but perhaps that will change with time.

Best regards,

Whosit, Galactic Emperor

I'm connected to him, I'm guessing, because Byss is on the outer coast. I'm also 2 turns away from finally connecting Byss to the rest of the Empire via roads. Extra income from foreign trade routes would to wonders for my economy, so I'm really hoping that he'll accept.

[Whosit]

Got some more news. I may end up whipping Carida after all, though it's sad that there's no granary. Next turn, it will be 1 turn from growth, and have just enough hammers in a Praet to get in a 2-pop whip. I made quick spreadsheet, and over the next 10 turns, whipping will get me Praets a bit more quickly.

Quick question: When a city grows, does any new production that results from growth (like a new citizen working a mine) apply the same turn of growth, or the next?

For example, if a city is producing 11 hammers per turn, and a new citizen would bring in +3 hammers, on the turn of growth, will 11 hammers go into the current item, or 14?

Also: Nakor said that plako seems to have gotten a source of Copper (he thinks that he settled ON a source), so I may want to start the offensive sooner rather than later. Hence, whip Carida, maybe whip Imperial Center, too. I can get 6 Praetorians in 3-4 turns, so, I may march on P'yongyang with that.

More in a bit.

[antisocialmunky]

Just out of curiosity, how are you planning on attacking Korea and India at the same time?

[Whosit]

Just out of curiosity, how are you planning on attacking Korea and India at the same time?

I'm not.

Since the Coalition hopes to attack India around Turn 100 (as I understand it), I will attack Korea in the next few turns, I think, hopefully dealing enough damage that I can either wrap it up by Turn 100, or at least afford to divert some troops. If the war against Korea is not going well, I'll either sue for peace, or just fight defensively for awhile.

Edit: Of course, "no plan survives contact with the enemy," so we'll see what happens. Korea in possession of Metal is going to become a problem soon.

[Whosit]

Plako hasn't been wasting time. He already has at least 3 Axemen out. 2 in P'yongyang, and 1 in Wonsan. P'yongyang currently has 2 Axemen and 3 Archers defending it. I expect 3 Axemen and 3 Archers when I attack.

It is currently turn 80. I believe that I will declare and move out on Turn 83. I will also have Sailing on T83, so that's good, since I'll most likely have to go to 100% gold once the war starts . . . .

I'm going to run some sims, though, to see what my chances are. Fortified Axemen, probably promoted Combat I, are about equal in power to my Praetorians. I will march with 7 Praetorians and 1 Axeman. Imperial Center will finish a Praetorian on T83, and I can whip another if needed, so I should be able to hold out on that front. Carida and Kuat should be safe because I'll be on the offensive on that front.

I really wish that Carida had a Granary. Hmf. Oh well, but nothing I can do about it now, and it would be a waste of resources to build one at the moment.

Things . . . could end up going really badly. I'll barely outnumber those Axemen 2 to 1, and I think that each Axeman can take 2 Praetorians to take down, unless I get really lucky. But if I wait any longer, it'll be completely hopeless. Chances are that I'll have to burn P'yongyang. The only good news is that I think I've been pretty successful at hiding my full troop strength from Korea, though they probably have a pretty good idea what I've got.

Anyway, more later. Things are going to get quite interesting.

[Whosit]

I've run a few combat sims. 10, actually. I plan to do more, especially as the next turns go by and I see if Plako has managed to stuff more troops into P'yongyang.

The first 8 tests had this scenario:
-City with 20% cultural defenses.
-2 Axemen Promoted Combat I with 25% fortification.
-1 Axeman Promoted Combat I with 10% fortification.
-3 Archers Promoted City Garrison with 25% fortification.

So far, none of my tests has ended in my defeat, although some have gone better than others. 10 is not a large number, so keep that in mind.

6 out of 10 tests have me capturing/razing the city on the first turn of actual conflict (T84). Otherwise, I have to finish it off on the next turn. In the event that it spills over to T85, I add a fresh Axeman to the city (no promotion) to indicate a whipped unit.

So far, this is what appears to be the most likely scenario:

My first to Praetorians die attacking the toughest Axemen. The third Axemen will be defeated, and the Archers are taken out without much trouble. I end up razing the city because I only have 1 unit left at the end, and it would be too dangerous to try and hold it, I think.

Alternatively, I could leave 1 unit in the city, but that poses many risks. Plako would surely reinforce the city from Seoul. I don't think that Wonsan's garrison could get there in time to help. Still, it would be better to raze the city and deny its production to plako than to wait and hope to actually capture it.

My average loss ratio seems to be about 2.5 at the moment.

For the last 2 tests, I made things harder by adding a 4th, whipped Axeman at the start. I've still won those, so far. All further tests will use these conditions, because it's better to prepare for the most difficult trials, yes?

So, unless plako really cranks out a ton more units, I think my chances of (overall) success are high. But, more tests to run.

The bad news is that I probably won't have many reinforcements for several turns, so if the city ends up being razed, I'll probably fall back to my own territory in order to heal and reconsolidate my forces. My second target would be Wonsan because Seoul is probably going to be too heavily fortified for me to capture with a wounded stack and no siege.

If things continue to go well and I capture or destroy Wonsan, I'll probably devote some forces to pillaging Seoul. I'm not sure what plako would do at that point, but I imagine that he might just whip out units until the end of time. It would make it too hard to capture the city, but at least he would drown himself in unit expenses. This, of course, is still the best-case scenario.

On the other hand, it's possible that he'd got his entire military forces in Wonsan and P'yongyang . . . . I've had trouble tracking production numbers lately, but he probably has 7-8 Archers total, and 6 are in his outlying cities, as are all of his Axemen, I think. So it's possible that Seoul's defenses will be relatively thin if I can take out his other cities. Of course, it will have a much higher cultural defense . . . .

Well, just keeping you all in the loop . . . you'll soon get to see your blood, of one sort or another.

[Whosit]

I would like to direct your attention to exhibit A:



I was curious to see exactly which tiles the Koreans were able to see, so I put this together in the World Builder. I hope that it's accurate. I'm pretty sure none of you can attest to that without revealing spoilers. It doesn't quite make sense to me, but if it's true . . .



It would make this possible. Now, I thought of this just out of curiosity. Honestly, bypassing P'yongyang is probably not a good idea. As much fun as it would be to march directly to Seoul, I imagine that the resistance there would be much fiercer than in P'yonyang, simply because plako would have more time to reinforce and whip. Still, I want to move 1E of P'yongyang just to give myself that option. If I'm really lucky, plako might think that my plan IS to go for his capital, and may fall back. Unlikely, but possible.

If nothing else, I could wait until I'm the last civ up before moving my soldiers to the cows, then declaring war, but it doesn't seem very sporting to do that.

I'll probably try crunching some numbers on what Seoul might have. It probably has a couple of Archers and Warriors right now, maybe even an Axeman. If I marched for it, I bet that most of Wonsan's garrison would head for Seoul. The only advantage would be that they would not have a high fortification bonus once I got there.

[Whosit]

Ho ho ho, I've been slacking off lately, haven't I? I haven't even been posting every day. Sorry about that; things are about to kick off, but it's been almost slow for the last few turns. Just waiting for everything to fall into place, really.

Here's a couple e-mails between me and the Ottomans:

Dear Athlete and Kalin,

Thank you for the well wishes of the New Year. I apologize that I was unable to reply earlier, but I hope that this New Year brings favor to you both.

As you requested, I will let you know if I see any additional Iron in your land. As a guess, you may have Iron in your first ring, based on what I have seen at some other locations, but I cannot be sure.

Here are some more details on my attack plan. I will be bringing seven Praetorians and one Axeman to bear on Korea. I plan to attack P'yongyang, their northernmost city and one that is fairly well-developed. All of my units have one promotion available, in addition to their basic Combat I promotion. Korea currently has two Axemen and 3 Archers in the city. All will have 20% defenses from the city, and 25% fortification bonuses. I expect an additional Axemen by the time I attack (turn 84), perhaps even two more. All Korean units have promotions available, and I expect the Archers to be given City Garrison and the Axemen Combat I. Unless I am extremely luck in my attack rolls, it will probably take me two turns to take the city. I hope to capture it, but I will raze it if I do not think that I can hold it. P'yongyang can be reinforced from Seoul in two turns, so it's possible that, if the battle spills over to Turn 85, that I will face an additional Axeman or two, as well as two Archers, perhaps. However, none will have fortfication bonuses if they were built/whipped or just moved into the city. On the other hand, plako and Broker33 may not reinforce, since that would leave Seoul with little defenses. Honestly, I do not think that I can accurately predict their response, but I am planning for the worst. Based on my projections so far, I will probably lose 2-3 Praetorians on Turn 84, but the remaining ones will have earned a new promotion, and should probably be able to defeat the weakened and unfortified units still in the city.

On another tactical note, I will move my stack one tile east of P'yongyang, which will give me the option bypass it and head for Seoul, but I don't see that as a very good option, since Seoul could be reinforced from Wonsan (which currently has an Axeman and 3 Archers in it).

Responding to your other e-mail, Imperial Center is not coastal, so it is not directly under amphibious threat. Korea does have at least one Galley, so I will be watching for it. Byss is coastal, but is to the east of Imperial Center, so I will see any attack coming many turns in advance. I also have enough line of sight from Imperial Center that I should be able to whip out additional units if necessary. I expect to have two Praetorians guarding my capital, which should be sufficient to deflect a counter-attack, based on Korea's troop strength and distribution. I am fairly certain that the bulk of Korea's army is in their border towns (which I have visibility into) and that Seoul and their fourth city have relatively light defenses.

My window of opportunity is small since I will also have to prepare for the attack on Sullla and Speaker, but hopefully I will be able to win a couple of decisive victories and continue the fight against Korea at a later date.

Hopefully that is enough information.

I'll keep you updated once hostilities have officially commenced.

Best regards,

Whosit, Galactic Emperor

That should give you all a better idea about my plan. I swear, this would be so much easier if they didn't get Copper at the eleventh hour like this. At least the Ottomans think my plan is good.

Dear Whosit,

Your plan seems well thought out and your force seems appropriate.
It's indeed unlucky that Korea got metal, but I think you are in a
very good position. Only fully fortified axemen will get odds on your
praetorians, so you should be ok. I think that once you start the
action the most important thing is to stay focused until you achieve
your objectives, even though you may suffer a bit short term.

I'll try and comment a bit more later, time has been a bit short
lately unfortunately.

Kalin for Team A/K of the Ottomans

The biggest problem I see with the situation is: After P'yongyang, then what? I'll need at least 4-5 turns to reconsolidate my forces. Much as I'd hate to burn it, it might be better to raze P'yongyang, since it will lose a lot of tiles to Seoul while the capital still stands.

P'yongyang's infrastructure (that I could keep) is: Barracks, Granary. I could build those in a new city pretty quickly, and the improvements plako put down should still be there (wheat farm, mines). I might be better off if I raze the city, pull back, and hit Wonsan, then push towards Seoul.

The real tricky part is the plans with the Coalition. Basically, due to the distance, I'd have to ship off my troops just as the war with Korea is heating up. Bad timing. I don't want to be a bad partner in the Coalition, but now that Korea can make Axemen, things won't go as quickly as I had hoped. Still, if they lose P'yongyang, and especially if I can manage to take out Wonsan, hill and all, I can probably just outproduce their capital and take it down . . .

I am definitely going to have Byss produce a pair of Galleys so that I can try and blockade Korea's coastal cities and cut off their Copper (I presume they are getting it from overseas, somewhere). I'll chop a forest into one, and I might even whip to get 'em out, too. I'd hate to, but the city just doesn't have a lot of production right now. Kuat will also have to go on Naval production for the sake of the Coalition, but I might hold off on that in order to get enough land forces to overwhelm Korea.

Maximum projected losses for the attack on P'yongyang are four Preatorians. That would leave me with three (promoted) Praetorians and an Axeman. Wonsan will be tougher to crack because it is on a hill, and I'll probably need a dozen units to take it down, lacking catapults. There's a very small chance that I can take P'yongyang with no losses, so I'll pray for that outcome.

[Whosit]

Holy smoke, lookit this!



They've moved the Axemen out of the city! Why? Where are they going? Are they going to come back? And even better, it looks like the Worker that was on the southern mine left without finishing the road. Just when I think they've got their act together, they go and perplex me. Or, in the words of Raditz:

Aha! Attacking an opponent roughly four times your strength in a one-on-one battle: A cunning strategy! . . . No, no not cunning. What's the opposite of that?

Anyway, if they do leave, it will definitely make the first stage of the war a lot easier. Pretty please go away?

Here's some current shots of my cities, in case that interests you guys.









And here's that ol' dotmap I was working on five minutes ago. Pardon the mess.



There's still a lot of blanks that need to be filled in. Are there coastal resources by the eastern sheep? And that strip of fog going up the middle of the landmass. I hope to send a spare Axeman or something out that way sometime in the future.

The middle dot of the first "ring," I think I'll move 1NE of the sign. The sign gets no resources and a few hills it could feed. Moving it loses me a plains hill, but gains a grassland Iron (and Sheep) which more than makes up for it. Red squares are tiles that will not be used (wasted). I want to minimize wasted tiles, but not at the cost of a good site.

It's still a bit early to figure out when/where I'll expand, but I think that I will actually try to prioritize the Globe site and the old Zulu capital. That way, I should be able to stake my claim out that far. If the Inca try to settle in between, I'll have justifiable cause to evict them.