[PB25-SPOILERS] The Lunacy of the Reign of HAK Continues

[MindyMcCready]

But how did it get there? That's not a path that makes much sense.

But yeah, an axe + archer doesn't really convey the right message. LOL. More like, we're weak here and can't do anything about if even if we tried.

As for the library,...3 chariots might be better at holding our culture than 1 library would be. We'll revisit this, but we'll only have 10T if he's got a missionary ready.

[HitAnyKey]

He doesn't even need a missionary ready. I'm sure he'll chop out a Terrace in no time flat. Then 5 turns later it gets the first border pop. But I basically need to keep my culture output stronger than his. The sheep is 2nd ring for both cities. I already have it in my control, so he'd have to fight that first. If I can keep my culture going decently enough, I would think I should be able to hold it. At least until Cobra also starts pushing into it.
I also don't really want to enrage the beast. I'd much rather he target someone else with his knights before he thinks about coming at me. And if I raze his city, that might just antagonize him enough to want to come at me. Especially if I can't get to my UU or Longbows fast enough.

[HitAnyKey]

So got some things to think about for this turn. I haven't finished it, because want to decide what to build in Sleepy and how to manage the tiles.
First up, the demos as usual:

So one of them I know you'll instantly veto...it was just a thought since it could be done somewhat quickly....which one might that be? Can you guess? Yes...Great Wall. It was mostly clicking it to see how long it would take. I know it's not a great wonder, and as you've repeatedly stated I shouldn't be building wonders. But my having it might also help to slightly deter Commodore later on as his first target, since invading me I'd get GG's faster. But yeah, probably shouldn't bother.
Then there's building the Barracks which I do want my cities to get so I can build promoted units. And this is one of my better hammer cities with all these mines...so it's a good one to pump units out of. I can have the city set to grow in 2 turns, or work Specialists to not have it grow, or even have it grow next turn (to possibly 2-pop whip the Barracks?). Then have it regrow on a unit until we get Currency and it is able to build a Market.
Then after I took the first two screenshots, I thought of a 3rd and possibly better option....just have it build another Settler. I want to get that island settled ASAP for those IC-TRs so this is probably the best idea. I'm already building the Galley in Sore, and might whip it next turn to get a military unit over there to take a look around. I could actually 2-pop whip the Galley now...but I know it's not all that efficient. However, the settler out of Stressed will be done in 2 turns, and I'd like to ferry it over there. And I'd like to already have 1 military & 1 worker over there to get things prepped, and then when I send over the settler also have another military go with it.





This past turn in Happy I did work a Scientist. So when the GP comes, it will have a chance at either. Need to decide whether to keep the scientist going. It'll get us the GP faster. Only 19 turns at this rate (and if when the city grows in 5 turns, I could do another to get it faster), but the longer I run a scientist the more chance that we'll get a GS instead of a GM. I'm good with either GP, but if we get the GS I'd really have to weigh out whether it's worth it to bulb Alpha or better to make an Academy somewhere. Alpha is a pretty cheap tech to waste a bulb on, IMHO. Since right now I could research it in 4 turns if I really wanted.

Summary: Two main decisions to make this turn.
1. What to do in Sleepy. Both with build queue and tile management. Also forgot to mention that if I decide to set the city to not grow, I can give the Rice to Hungry to have it grow next turn (otherwise it'll grow the turn after).
2. What to do in Happy. Keep diluting the GM pool with the scientist for a greater chance of a GS or much more slowly let it work towards the GM? I'm leaning towards keeping the scientist going. Basically to get the great person that much faster. If we get a GS (the more likely chance) then probably build an Academy somewhere. If we actually get a GM, all the better...we bulb MC (or CoL).

[HitAnyKey]

Btw, if you get bored (LOL) feel free to also lurk the PBEM that's just starting up that I joined.
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthread.php?tid=7573
I'm not planning to dedicate as much planning and strategy to that one as I am this one, but we'll see.
If nothing else, maybe help me come up with a theme or naming scheme. I don't really like the one I started for this game, but it's basically too late to change it now. It all simply started because this game began right when I woke up in the morning and I played my first turn before I got my first cup of coffee...hence the first city being called Sleepy. And I think it just went downhill from there.

[MindyMcCready]

So one of them I know you'll instantly veto...

This isn't really about me vetoing,...its about mutually deciding a best course. If you think a wonder is worth it, you should be making your case just as I'll make the case that a settler is better.

Alternative: settler planted in Joey's face will near instantly double TGLH build benefit. We have 10T of enforced peace with Joey. Plant right on the stone as the most non-threatening (only for ICTR) plant possible. I know I discouraged this plant, but that was before 1. GJ drew my aggro, 2. Commodore didn't fight for it, 3. Commdore planting in our face, 4. Our landmass being settled. 5. You built TGLH.

This is an option that would allow you a city + ICTR + GW for about the same hammers as just a straight GW build. I'm not endorsing the GW build,...just pointing out the equivalency. It's been so long since I build the GW that I'll have to look up what it actuall does. :LOL:

If you have a case, please make it. If you can't show why it's good then you shouldn't put the onerous on me to dissuade you from a suboptimal path. Bling-bling is not a reason. :LOL: Yes, I discouraged you from this path a long-time ago. Sorry for the flip-flop.

Ok,...looked up the GW. Prevents barbarians,....might have been useful ages ago but the barbs have stopped. Spy points,...GG points,...slightly useful but not worth having to start a war with Grimace over an island city for example or Borsche for a mainland city.

Your heart really isn't into rexing I can see. Repeat this sentence 10 times:
Return from resources (gained via cities) > return from almost anything else.

If you don't see any easily attainable resources, then entertain all other builds. You may notice that players far ahead of us in score haven't built these bling-bling items that keep tempting you. TGLH is one of the best which prevented my total meltdown. However, it now makes the above statement even more true.

Then there's building the Barracks which I do want my cities to get so I can build promoted units.

A barracks would be nice. Alternative: an extra city that can grow quickly and whip out units.
Barracks = 10% stronger units.
Extra city = 100% more units.

You tell me which you'd want to have more in a battle. 10 units all with C1 or 20 unpromoted units. Yes, this is an exaggeration. But over time it will converge to an approximately true statement. Repeat the above sentence and add that with TGLH your cities are virtually free. We have very little time to get these cities planted before we might have to put out fires from Griamce or GJ or Master Commodore.

I'm already building the Galley in Sore, and might whip it next turn to get a military unit over there to take a look around. I could actually 2-pop whip the Galley now...but I know it's not all that efficient. However, the settler out of Stressed will be done in 2 turns, and I'd like to ferry it over there.

If there's a tangible benefit to 2-pop whipping then by all means. Timing a settler + galley would certainly qualify in my mind especially for ICTR. We need 3 cities to fulfil all ICTR.

This past turn in Happy I did work a Scientist.

Which city would get the Academy? A +50% science boost, how much does that get us at breakeven? How many turns until the Academy exceeds the short-term beaker advantage of Alphabet? If Alphabet gets us foreign trade routes does that exceed the boost from an Academy?

Q. Is alphabet or an Academy worth it? Depends on how long until we think that Master Commodore could get Knights and be ready for an invasion.

In PB18 it looks like DTay landed Guilds on T118. I didn't really read his thread very closely. Questions:
-Oracle?
-Mao (expansive, Protective) vs Sitting Bull (Philosophical, Protective). Seems about the same leader-wise but Inca is stronger than Ethopia so we could expect earlier.
-DTay invaded with 14 Knights on T121,...so we could be looking at that time line or earlier. Wow,...that's 30T from now. That's really, really soon.

So thoughts on an Academy vs wasted Alphabet implies a timeline that we might not have. Absolutely, if we only have 30T, bulbing Alphabet is far, far, far better.

If we get a GS that delays us getting Engineering we could very easily be eaten for lunch. The Engineering tech plan *EXCLUDED HBR*. That means no War Elephants,...our only unit that has any chance of standing up to a Knight and no HA,...the only option to flank away cats/trebs that are killing our defense advantage at our chokepoint. If Master Commodore breaks our choke; we're done. Engineering is our all-or-nothing play. It also excludes all other techs,....so Alphabet might be a long way off if we don't bulb it. Can we get both a GS and GM?

So we need to come up with a plan to answer any of these questions.
A. We think that we can get Engineering. We must be absolutely focussed on this if that's our plan. A GS that disrupted our timeline could be disasterous.
B. We can't get to Engineering by T120ish. This is probably more correct at a glance, but we need to investigate because LBs are clearly inferior. It's probably doable given our hills but if our chokepoint has it's culture removed we're sitting ducks to trebs/cats + Knights. Our defense strategy would have to hinge on attacking out with a large number of cats and then elephants or deterring with endless LBs.

IF you post your best sandbox on Friday,...I'll try to determine if Engineering is possible and/or if we can get 2GP by that time. It'll take me a few days so I expect to post on Monday. Until then, we can certainly work scientists,...BUT our real planning should be around getting a market as soon as currency is done and then working 2 merchants.

[MindyMcCready]

2. What to do in Happy. Keep diluting the GM pool with the scientist for a greater chance of a GS or much more slowly let it work towards the GM? I'm leaning towards keeping the scientist going. Basically to get the great person that much faster. If we get a GS (the more likely chance) then probably build an Academy somewhere. If we actually get a GM, all the better...we bulb MC (or CoL).

I'm taking a look at this specifically, give me a few minutes.

[MindyMcCready]

Currency

{
Construction (522b)
AND/OR
Iron Working (?) --> UU needs Iron. No iron or vulnerable iron and Feudalism becomes a must have.
AND/OR
COL (522b) (GM BULB)
}

Metal Casting (448b) (GM BULB)
-workshops

Machinery (1046b)
-Trebs
-LM, Windmill, watermill

Engineering (1495b)
-REQ: Machinery & Construction
-Castle
-NotreDame
-3road movement
-UU

The above plan, if doable means that we shouldn't be putting GPP into a scientist. If we bulbed a low odds GS we'd land the next GP by around T120 or whatever,...meaning that we'd be starting on Machinery at that point,...DOOOOOOMMMM!

Depending on how we're doing tech wise, we might have to skip over COL.

If we grow the city,...then whip out the market and work double merchants we get a 100% GM on T111. So between now and T111:
0. Finish Currency
1. Tech IW. Determine if Engineering is feasiable.
2. Tech Construction
3. Save gold.
3A. Tech COL if possible.
4. Bulb Metal Casting on T111
5. Tech Machinery.
6. Tech Engineering.

IF we don't think that we're on target for T120 then we'll need to do wealth builds. However, I'd imagine that 75H markets or 60H minus 75% maintenance Rathuses would be much more efficient over the medium term. Will we live to the medium term.

Both power deterrant and tech deterrant will determine if Master Commodore tries to eat us. Power deterrant we achieve by landing more cities and having more whippable population. Tech deterrant we achieve by focussing hard on only what is necessary.

[MindyMcCready]

HAK,...I'd like you to double check my tech path, assumptions and feasiblity when you have a chance. I'll also do so over the weekend if you post your sandbox.

If we can pull this off there's some nice synergy here:
1. Beat Grimace to those islands for our own ICTR. Don't need alphabet so badly.
2. Land on GJ's island for our stone plant. If he makes no move against us I will undertake the challenge of changing our foreign policy towards him. Probably I will feel foolish later for trying to have peaceful relations with him.
3. Stone + Engineering = Notre Dame. For you,... a Wonder.

What will Master Commodore do? Showing him a Crossbow will be a big deterrant for him. He'll know that we're 1 tech away from dragging him through the grinder by whipping our pop away into super-pikes. He won't sweep a continent if that happens.

[HitAnyKey]

If there's a tangible benefit to 2-pop whipping then by all means. Timing a settler + galley would certainly qualify in my mind especially for ICTR. We need 3 cities to fulfil all ICTR.

Doing a quick reply to this to get my question out there before you disappear for the rest of the day. Or a lurker can answer since it's just a game mechanics thing and doesn't matter if you are spoiled.
This is where my lack of experience with paying much attention to numbers or specifics all that much. Usually at this point of a game, I'm just playing along making decisions turn by turn and only doing minor planning ahead (hence why I keep losing LOL).

What do you mean by the above needing 3 cities? Do you mean we need 3 cities on an island (or islands) in order for all our cities to get more than 1gpt in trade route income? So meaning we would need to get 1 city on Battle Island (ie. on the Stone...man I hate doing that, but agree it would be the least aggressive towards GJ) and then 2 on the SE island? What if I can only get 1 on the SE island if Grimace gets a city there before we can cover it all? How would that change things?

[MindyMcCready]

If there's a tangible benefit to 2-pop whipping then by all means. Timing a settler + galley would certainly qualify in my mind especially for ICTR. We need 3 cities to fulfil all ICTR.

What do you mean by the above needing 3 cities? Do you mean we need 3 cities on an island (or islands) in order for all our cities to get more than 1gpt in trade route income? So meaning we would need to get 1 city on Battle Island (ie. on the Stone...man I hate doing that, but agree it would be the least aggressive towards GJ) and then 2 on the SE island? What if I can only get 1 on the SE island if Grimace gets a city there before we can cover it all? How would that change things?

You get 100% ICTR bonus. Each city on the mainland will get that bonus.
Right now each non-costal city only has 1 trade route so 1 island city will do.
Each waterside city as 2 TRs so that's where you need a second non-continent city.
When you get currency we'll gain 1TR in each city meaning that your waterside cities would get maximum benefit from having that 3rd city.

If we get those we can relax about OB. OB would still be better since you get bonus for 'not-us' civs if you've been at peace long enough. I think that that bonus was 100% or 150%. I don't recall if those bonuses are exclusive or stack. I think that they're exclusive so you either get 100% ICTR or 150% long-term peace. Not sure.

With these bonuses in mind you can see why TGLH wasn't an amazing play or at least not a strictly superior one:
-we could have achieved the equivalent or better with a single city on an island. 2X the trade route value but half the trade routes. Same effect, 100H less.
-With currency we'd need a second settler on another island. That's your second 100H and the equivalent effect has been generated.
-To get 'better than the alternative' requires us to either have 1. OB with a long-time friend not on our contient. GJ,...um nope. Grimace if he lands those islands -can't move against him. Borsche I don't think that we have a path to yet and will require us to not move against him. Elkad,...yes so long as both we have a 3-way OB that should work; us-ot-GJ, GH-to-Elkad and us-to-Elkad. We might be able to go through other lands with the map having been traded so freely.

That's about all I know about trade routes which is no better than 1/2 of what there is to know I'm sure.

This also explains why Alphabet is not a waste by any stretch. If we have no island cities,...it probably hands down beats having an academy.