RB PBEM #1 - Mehmed (SPOILERS!)

[Dreylin]

t106 - greeted by the University of Sankore movie.

Istanbul starts Cannon
Konya finishes Cannon, continues with Jannissary.

Next turn I'll have 6 Cannon, 6 Janns, 5Cats, 3HA, & assorted other units available at Bursa.

Nat in 1t; -82g @ 100%, or -64g @ 90%. 137g in the bank, so at 90% that leaves me enough to pay the 71g to upgrade the Spearman in Bursa to Pike. Seems prudent with mh now fielding knights.

Tile flips have taken place at Bursa, so a passle of Workers move in to reconnect he irrigation chain that will allow the city to grow properly. A couple of Janns are placed on protection detail to ensure mh does't get any ideas about deleting my Workers cheaply.

[Dreylin]

An exchange with Ruff; I'd been wanting to confirm that athlet's forces were not massing just West of Zapotec, and asked Ruff's Scout to take a look:

you asked about me checknig 2 tiles E of Kufah for athlete' units - did it, nothing.

He's definitely got them stashed somewhere I cannot see, his cities only have Longbows in them right now, andI know he had a selection of HAs & Camel Archers. At least I can see that all his builds are infrastructure.

have you asked him? Let me know if you want me to peek into any other nooks or crannies.

No, haven't asked. He's pressing me for an answer to his Spy plan; fortunately, he'd promised me a response to some other questions I'd asked (about whether we could get him into our trading circle rather than the mh/Sooooo conglomerate) and never actually given them, so I just turned the question back onto him.

BTW, I forgot to request your gold this turn to fund my research next turn. Nat is complete, and I'm currently running at ~90g/t expenses, so if you could offer that on your turn that would be useful.

Ruff & I have agree that he would fund me to research PP while he finishes off his Unis & Oxford, then he'll kick off a GA and I'll feed him gold to research RP&Rifling, while I slowly research Feud & Guilds with Sankore & what's left.

[Dreylin]

Message back from athlete; pretty-much what I'd expected on the trading-bloc side of things:

Hey Andy,

Let me preface this by saying I've kept our conversations private and apart from you possibly sharing some info with Ruff (whom I don't have contact with) I would expect you to not have revealed any of my discussion with you to MH and/or Soooo.

That said, sorry I didn't realize the spy stuff was contingent on the other stuff. I suppose for the time being (the current duration of my nap with MH and your self- T125) I shall have to stay with the MH-Soooo-Athlete trading block. However, judging by the build up on the borders I expect their may be some conflict between you two either before that turn or shortly thereafter. I also believe you were correct (hindsight is 20/20) when stating it was a mistake for me to make NAP's with the both of you so come the end of our NAP's I will need to choose one side or the other, no more sitting on the fence. Also there are inherent benefits for me going to war with both sides, so it's not a simple decision (atleast not for me). I'll leave it at that for now as that has answered your question about the trading opportunities for the near future, however I shall try and state my views on upcoming war, the sides, and the pros/cons for my civ in an upcoming e-mail over the next couple of days which should allow you some insight into where I am at.

I don't want to make any promises but I don't want to burn any bridges at this point (if I haven't done so already).

Taylor

Well he's a bit off-base with the timing of the conflict; it should be all-but over by the time our NAP expires in 20t, and I guess we'll see what decision he's made then (and whether it still matters).

Taylor,

Rest assured, I have not communicated about this (or anything else) with either mh or sooooo. Seems like the two of us may be the only ones "speaking over the fences".

I wouldn't go as far as to say that the EP/Spy discussions we've been having were contingent on our potential future trade relations, however that has certainly been a part of my considerations when evaluating your proposed deal.

In all honesty, you do keep landing on the opposite side of the afformentioned fence from me, and while you're trading with "them" and not "us", the value of visibility goes way up. For example; knowing that your cities are all on infrastructure builds reassures me that a military build-up is not underway, however the "disappearance" of your offensive armed forces (HAs & CAs which I have seen in past turns) makes me wonder whether your aim is to merely conceal their numbers & make-up, or have another motive in their concealment.

Having said that (and meaning nothing by it other than as illustration), I think the main issue with your proposal which I've been pondering over is the timing: both length of time to be carried out, and what is also occurring. As you've noticed, things are coming to a head with mh and I'm really not certain that I can afford to divert the resources towards your plan which are required for me to take full advantage of it. If there were more time available or I had any spies already in place, then I do think we could have reached an agreement.

I look forward to hearing any further thoughts you may have, and you needn't worry about burning bridges with me ... except maybe if those CA's show up wearing Yellow... 9-)

Regards,

Andy.

Maybe a bit blunt, but although he hasn't chosen a side in the coming conflict, I think he needs to see that the side he keeps chosing in the research arena affects how I'm seeing all our potential agreements.

[Dreylin]

Oh, I just ran a quick simulation of what could happen if I moved my stack next to Vienna ... practically nothing. His 4 Cats lose pretty effectively to the top 4 Cannon, and although theres some collateral to the Jannssaries, it doesn't seem that it would be sufficient to give any of his units better than 30-ish% odds, and he doesn't have enough to make that worthwhile. Unfortunately, I notice that he has just discovered Gunpowder, though Muskets will have to be built (or Drafted) from scratch.

I don't have the forces in place to make the attack next turn, so it will have to be the turn after that the first wave moves forward.

[Dreylin]

Well I've finally told athlete that I don't think I'll be taking him up on his tech-stealing deal; said I couldn't afford to divert the resources right now. He basically said that he's one of TOG at least until his NAPs expire on t125. Which is a shame, since that means they'll have Cavs running around shortly - mh just got Gunpowder, Sooooo - Music, and athlete is on RP.

I'll be attacking mh turn-after next unless things change radically. I should have sufficient forces in place to weather any counter-attack (Cats vs. Cannon is not a great proposition) and the following troops should let me take Vienna - though maybe not in a single turn. I can cut mh's access road with a Spy though todelay any reinforcements arriving, and he shouldn't have a chance to build many Muskets.

On the down side, I have a suspicion that athlete may be giving the Economics GM to mh (it is headed in that direction) at which point a Golden Age with civics swap and Drafting would be problematic. OTOH, it may just be that the fastest route East from athlete to us travels through Vienna - the road links between him & mh, and him & me are pretty bad.

Anyway, nothing we can do about that now.

Dreylin.

[Dreylin]

t107 - Ruff offers his gold stash, & I hand over Nationalism.

Start research on Printing Press; 4t @ 100%

Edirne: Cannon - Conf. Missionary
Bursa: Cannon - Cannon
Konya: Jannisary - Cannon
Gaziantep: Cannon - Jannissary
Diyarbakir: Jann - Jann (will whip)

Army marches towards the front. Workers ensure that Bursa is groing again.

mh is now in Nationalism ... so drafted Muskets can be expected.

[Dreylin]

Oh this isn't good:

Hey Andy,

As noted I do currently find myself on the "opposite side of the fence" and as such your arguments/points are both fair and valid. I'll let you know my "offensive" stack you were referring to is currently 2E of my capital (show of good faith here :-)) though I would have thought you could see that. I was under the impression your degree of espionage allowed you an eye into all my civ just not my cities. Care to clarify what exactly you can do/see? It really is a small stack compared to what you and MH have. I will move it soon in between Medina and Damascus as I'd like it closer to the front in a "just in case" measure.

If timing really is the largest issue maybe we can work on that. Say have 2 attempts done by T120? or T125? At that point the tech must be given to me? You will be allowed to continue your attempts up to 4 at your leisure? Of course we run into the problem of the NAP expiring by that piont which would allow you to do it anyways so perhaps there isn't a solution here...

Anyways, I'm not certain how soon things between you and MH might explode but due to the quickness of the game I don't believe I can put this email off. It will be expectant of me to immediately come to MH's aid. I will have 1-2 turns at most I would think to get my stack in place and "strategically" strike. I tell you this as if it happens sooner than later it would break our NAP which I'm loathe to do but in a situation like this I might have to. However I tell you this also in that here's your chance to speak your case as to why I should break it with MH and have me flip and fight with you. Again hindsight is 20/20 and I really see I shouldn't have made an NAP with both of you. :-(

To make it easier here's my take on on the situation. Anything you have to add is great but I've been thinking about this possibility for a while so I can be ready to make the decision when the time comes.

Flipping doesn't earn me anything in terms of trading power, I still only have 2 partners. However these partners are both ahead of me in terms of research power and raw power where I am not far off the pace of Soooo (I think) it almost feels MH is starting to fall behind. By switching though I've alienated those I've been longtime friends with and joined yourself whom I think we would immediately begin workign closely with but Ruff is a ? for me. I would assume because I would flip he would be on board with it but I would love to hear your thoughts on it.

Certainly aligning myself with 2 more powerful civs is better in the short term as better protection for me, secures my southern border, and provides a united spearheaded attack into MH land which I do covet for several reasons. Land is land, Buddhist holy city are just 2. However the quality of land is better where you are (more green, is my definition of better).

Long term thinking if I'm with either group of 2 I believe I am around until there are 3 left. Then it becomes well who's the next to go? Considering where I am at this juncture, it will most likely be a similar picture in the future though maybe I'd survive longer if MH were around then? I don't know but as you can tell I am still more leaning to sticking then changing. I will say that I am open to the possibility I just need convincing. I am definitely interested in hearing on how we might split the conquests if I do join forces with you and we combine to take MH as well as anything else you might have to say on the matter.

Things are getting serious I guess :-).

Taylor

[Dreylin]

Well, let's see if this works...

Taylor,

Things are getting serious indeed!

I certainly appreciate your candidness, as well as how much you have revealed to me here. Sadly, it appears that I'm going to be making things difficult for you, since I do not think that I can afford to wait much longer before moving against mh.

So I'd better start trying to sell you on the merits of turning over to our side, hadn't I? (without trying to sound too desperate)

Starting with trading power; yes, you'd still only have two partners, however you start at somewhat of an advantage since you have several techs we do not, and vice versa. So in addition to those you have picked up in trade from mh & sooooo, you'd be able to trade the same techs of yours for additional techs of ours - probably leaving you infront of us all.

As far as division of land goes, I'm certain that we could come to an arrangement that you would find satisfactory. I don't have much interest in acquiring a lot of land - just a few strategic places & access to resources - so I would have no problem ceding the bulk to you (including mh's Capital, the Buddhist Holy city).

Ruff would definitely be on-board with your joining our side; but as you say either way eventually there would just be 3 remaining. Your defensive position now is very strong with just two access points to you core lands; however I would suggest that any division of my land which you could agree to with mh would leave you in a much more vulnerable position (with an elongated front, and potentially a second against Ruff or sooooo), than any agreement we reached.

I would also point out that our NAP was signed before your agreement with mh, therefore it could be argued that ours outweighs any mutual(?) defense clause that was written into the later agreement....

As far as EPs go, I did have one additional idea that could clear the plate; if you did join us obviously we would be trading techs and stealing yours would be out of the question, however I could make a full-expense attempt (i.e. not accrue stationary bonuses, etc.) to steal something that mh or sooooo had researched and that should all-but remove my city visibility. If that did not prove to be enough, one way to guarantee taking it out of the picture would be for me to repeatedly steal your treasury, and then return it afterwards. You've made it clear that clearing out my EPs would have to be part of a deal, and I'm happy with that; this is where I've got with ideas.

I think that's my piece said, and obviously I hope that you choose to side with against mh rather than against me. Let me know if there's anything you want to follow up on.

Cheers,

Andy.

[Cyneheard]

Another option (he'd have to tell you exactly where you can and can't do it) is to foment unhappiness and/or poison water in any smaller cities he might have. Probably more complicated than it's worth, but has some comic value as you explain why this poisoning WASN'T malicious, because it actually wasn't. Also, they're not that expensive (Base cost is 120. That's the base cost of stealing 40 gold).

[Dreylin]

t108 - Ruff hands over his gold; I've got enough now for 1.5t, but my expenses will be going up this turn....

Istanbul: Cannon - Cannon (2t)
Ankara: Cannon - Jann (3t)
Samsun: Jann - Cannon (3t)

Ruff wants his Stone back; deal cn't be cancelled for another 5t, and I don't seem to be getting the option in the trade screen to han it back. Oh dear.

Move all the Workers & back-line troops before looking at the front. I mentioned last turn that mh had revolted to Nationhood, but forgot to mention that he also switched out of Slavery (to Caste) & adopted Mercantilism. I can see his 3 drafted Muskets; one in Vienna and the other two on their way. I think that I will also have to be able to draft to keep up in this war, so time to look at civics. Ah, I'll have to wait another turn because of my recent revolt to Theocracy. OK, Nationhood next turn.

Whip the Cannon at Konya, and the Jannissary at Diyarbakir to finish next turn before the revolt.

Time for the attack, I guess.

Spy attempts to cut mh's access road - success!

Troops move in.

You can see from the screenshot how cutting the road adds 1-2 turns to any reinforcements reaching Vienna. There are two Workers in the area which can move to re-road turn after next, and if that's not long enough, I have a second Spy able to re-cut.