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oledavy Wrote:Figured out this particular game mechanic just a couple turns ago, it's rather nifty, I gotta say. Very fortunately for me, Darrell does not seem aware of it. Cool. 
oledavy Wrote:Do you know what calculations go into a bombing run on a tile improvement? I asked a few posts back but no one answered. I tried bombing forts in WB with various aircraft/guided missiles, but couldn't divine any method to the madness. A friend of mine did work it out with me a while back. For some unfathomable reason, it's hidden away in the back of the XML and has an unnecessarily confusing formula. Forts are among the most hardy of improvements; others (such as plantations and mines) are much more easily destroyed. Very roughly, I think it works out as Fighters having about a 1 in 4 chance of destroying a Fort. Cruise Missiles have slightly better than 1 in 2 odds, something like 60-70% as I recall. I can't remember the exact numbers for the other units, but I can look it up and post the hard numbers sometime.
It's definitely one of those things that is ridiculously tricky to find and work out though. I have no idea why they didn't just include the percentage in a display in the game - I guess bombing improvements comes fairly late and isn't used that frequently in SP games, so they just didn't think of it.
oledavy Wrote:Also, a land unit on the tile improvement/fort does lower the chance of it being destroyed? No, it has no effect if the tile is devoid of land units or if it has 100 (or 1000). It does not effect the calculation.
oledavy Wrote:Always heard you wanted to use drill when you were ahead technologically - now I know why. Thanks for the explanation  No worries. By the way, I edited that post to include a bit more detail on the reasoning since you last looked at it.
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To go into a little more detail on bombing improvements for anyone interested, this is how I recall it working:
- Each improvement has a "defence" number associated with it. Something like 5, 10, and 20... lower numbers for the more common improvements. Forts are 20 as I recall. (Numbers might be a bit off but the principle should be right.)
- Each fighter/bomber/missile has an "attack improvement" number associated with it. Can't recall exactly what the range is, but for this example let's say our Fighter has a value of 10 here.
- When an improvement is attacked, it draws a random number from 1 (or maybe 0) up to its maximum allowed value. So for instance for a Fort, it will draw a random "defence" number from 1-20. Maybe it gets 12. Meanwhile the attacker similarly draws a random number - in the Fighter's case, this would be 1-10. Maybe it gets 8.
- The "attack" number is compared with the "defence" number. If attack > defence, the improvement is destroyed. If not, it remains and the bombing run fails. (I think it also fails if the numbers are equal, but can't be sure.)
- So in this example, where you have a defence number randomly drawn from 1-20 and an attack number randomly drawn from 1-10, it works out as something like 25% odds of victory (not exactly, I'm being a bit lazy with my maths).
Once again, I don't guarantee the numbers are right, but I'm pretty sure this is the general principle of how it works. I could have been a bit more detailed and exact if I'd spent an hour or so on it, but I'm feeling lazy so that'll have to do for now. 
In any event, you can see how it's tricky to work out exact odds: you have to first work out what numbers you're dealing with for both the unit you're using to bomb and the improvement you're attacking, and then calculate the odds of one number randomly exceeding the other from that.
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Lord Parkin Wrote:- Each improvement has a "defence" number associated with it. Something like 5, 10, and 20... lower numbers for the more common improvements. Forts are 20 as I recall. (Numbers might be a bit off but the principle should be right.)
- Each fighter/bomber/missile has an "attack improvement" number associated with it. Can't recall exactly what the range is, but for this example let's say our Fighter has a value of 10 here.
- When an improvement is attacked, it draws a random number from 1 (or maybe 0) up to its maximum allowed value. So for instance for a Fort, it will draw a random "defence" number from 1-20. Maybe it gets 12. Meanwhile the attacker similarly draws a random number - in the Fighter's case, this would be 1-10. Maybe it gets 8.
- The "attack" number is compared with the "defence" number. If attack > defence, the improvement is destroyed. If not, it remains and the bombing run fails. (I think it also fails if the numbers are equal, but can't be sure.)
- So in this example, where you have a defence number randomly drawn from 1-20 and an attack number randomly drawn from 1-10, it works out as something like 25% odds of victory (not exactly, I'm being a bit lazy with my maths).
![[Image: JackieChan.jpg]](http://i1211.photobucket.com/albums/cc432/numismatist93/PBEM17%20Pictures/JackieChan.jpg)
The details of that mechanic just seem a tad convoluted and unnecessarily enigmatic. What were the programmers at Firaxis were thinking when they designed it?
Nonetheless, thanks for the explanation LP It's really helpful to know.
I take it then, that the rough order of increasing odds against tile improvements would be something akin to:
Fighter
Bomber
Stealth Bomber
Jet Fighter
Guided Missile
Or something like that 
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Most improvements: 5
Mine/quarry/well/offshore platform: 10
Fort/Forest Preserve: 20
Fighter: 8
Jet Fighter: 12
Bomber, Guided Missile: 16
Stealth bomber: 20
The bombing unit's value is prorated according to their current HP.
The bombing unit's random number needs to equal or exceed the improvement's random number.
Weird!
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oledavy Wrote:
The details of that mechanic just seem a tad convoluted and unnecessarily enigmatic. What were the programmers at Firaxis were thinking when they designed it? No idea. 
SevenSpirits Wrote:Most improvements: 5
Mine/quarry/well/offshore platform: 10
Fort/Forest Preserve: 20
Fighter: 8
Jet Fighter: 12
Bomber, Guided Missile: 16
Stealth bomber: 20
The bombing unit's value is prorated according to their current HP.
The bombing unit's random number needs to equal or exceed the improvement's random number.
Weird! Ah, that's right. Thanks for that, saved me some effort. I presume I was right about it being random from 1-x as well... or was it 0-x? (Only a slight difference in the resulting odds either way, but may as well be complete.)
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oledavy Wrote:Always heard you wanted to use drill when you were ahead technologically - now I know why. Thanks for the explanation
Yeah. "Modern war" for a CFC strategist means something like tanks against rifles, where any single lost tank is a travesty against justice and the RNG. When you're at equal tech levels, Drill is easily inferior to Combat or more specific promotions.
Theoretically, Drill might be useful on defense, to allow a single strong defender to beat several attackers without getting damaged. This doesn't really pan out, since mounted units up to Cuirs are immune to first strikes, and modern war includes artillery and air power to damage such a unit.
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I had a dream last night that Darrell was attacking me with amphibious modern armor 
Then I woke up this morning and remembered armored units can't get the amphibious promotion. 
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oledavy Wrote:I had a dream last night that Darrell was attacking me with amphibious modern armor
Then I woke up this morning and remembered armored units can't get the amphibious promotion.
Nightmare averted!
Edit: On the other hand CR3 Modern armor are about equally effective.
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Quote:[COLOR="Green"]Sure what the hell, I'll loan you the gold. If Darrell or Nospace asks, I agreed to this yesterday (1/1/12) though.
In regards to Darrell and Nospace, it appears they only wanted to prevent me going for Apollo; they seemed to think my researching rocketry was for that reason. Anyway I just signed a new NAP with them that cancels if I ever build Apollo. One stipulation is that I stop supporting you however (they said any reasonable pre-existing deals for the next turn or two they could look past, hence the gold gift/loan, but do tell them it is a loan and was pre-existing to my new NAPs if they ask). In the scheme of things having an NAP which I essentially get to decide when/if to cooldown isn't actually that terrible, except for that they get first strike because of turn order which kinda sucks but oh well can just hit enter if I want I guess.
Shoot[/COLOR]
And, what will probably be my last diplomatic email of the game:
Quote:[COLOR="DarkOrange"]Thanks dude, if you ever find yourself in Arkansas/Louisiana, I owe you a drink.
Best of luck pursuing space/pressing enter, whichever you may choose.
Dave[/COLOR]
World War III is going to stay limited to the three of us. Historians will always wonder what might have happened, had Shoot chosen to take a more active international role in the waning years of the game. Shoot hasn't been interested in this game for a long time, so I expect he'll just press enter until it's all over. Though, a last ditch run at Space from him would definitely make things more interesting.
In the meantime, this email means my inevitable doom, if that wasn't certain already. The Covenant can now focus all their attention and military might on me. But as long as there is a Dutch city standing, the war will continue. So, Novice, Spaceman & Darrell, I got four words for you guys:
![[Image: ComeAtMeBro-1.jpg]](http://i1211.photobucket.com/albums/cc432/numismatist93/PBEM17%20Pictures/ComeAtMeBro-1.jpg)
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