OK, I think as long as Grimace doesn't have nearby units in a Galley, I can take the city. It looks like as long as the first Shock Keshik to attack the Spear gets a couple hits in, the Archers become top defenders and my other Keshiks get 30% odds on them. So yeah, I should be able to take the city with 50% losses, maybe less if I get a lucky roll against one of the Archers.
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[SPOILERS] Will the Sun(rise) Ever Set on Washington, Mongolia?
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Turn 152 [1/2]:
Turn is not complete, I just went ahead and did some stuff I thought was important. Namely, the battle to capture the island city of Nevada. Grimace brought a second Trireme to the northern shores of the city to cut off my squad of 3 that had dispatched his previous Trireme last turn. I led the attack with my nearly healed C2 Trireme:  2nd Naval battle of Nevada 1: C2 Trireme vs Trireme (52%) = WIN! Basically a coin flip battle, but I'm glad that I won. It's nice to keep a promoted naval unit. Now it was the hard part. The landing force of six Keshiks needed to take the city this turn, but I was pretty confident. Battle of Nevada After that first battle, I was pretty peeved. Not quite tilted, but probably salty. Yes, let's just throw out terms and slang here. Anyway, I'm a stubborn bastard so I just kept attacking. The second battle almost made me call it quits, though. Luck saw me through the rest, and I admit I made a little prayer to the RNG before ordering the attacks, but hey, it worked out! And I only lost 2 units instead of the 3 estimated.   Not a single piece of infrastructure survived the capture, however. The RNG giveth and t he RNG taketh away, I suppose. It'll be a nice little city, though, and I'll probably plant another on the Sheep just for the trade routes once all is said and done (supposing my west stays calm). I've still some business to handle with Grimace this turn. Not only do I need to organize my attack on Yamato itself (I will surely need to recall some Keshiks from their emergency dispatch to the west), but I have to handle his naval squadron.  I'm in a bit of an awkward position. You see he has 4 Triremes (1 C1), and 2 Galleys. Units I have that can hit his this turn are 5 Triremes (1 C2, 2 C1), and 2 Galleys. I have another C2 Trireme, but it can't arrive in time to help this turn. With my promotions, I'll get 3 coin flip battles on the triremes before the last gets a defensive advantage. The galleys, likewise, would be coin flips if it comes down to it. I'm not sure how I want to proceed. One or two lucky battles in my favor would swing it, but likewise, one or two lucky battles in Grimaces favor would see him with naval dominance in this region for the next several turn. I can't really have him ripping up all my nets or blockading important cities. The two options I am currently weighing are just attacking, or consolidating all my ships on the clams. He'll either retreat, attack, or try to slip by. I mean, he might also pillage the fish nets, but anything he leaves on that tile would be dead for sure. If he attacks, I'll have the advantage, if he retreats, that's fine, and if he tries to slip by, then I can hit him with an extra trireme. I'm leaning towards the defensive positioning rather than the attack for this turn. Lastly, some scouting on the HRE front:   Those CHariots no longer look like they're in attack position. Maybe CH was just making sure I saw them? Useful to see he has some HAs, too. But yeah, wow, I missed an opportunity, I think. Just look at the defenses he has on the Roman border there. Much heavier than what he's had on my side. That'll probably change now. At least next turn I can start to produce a few maces of my own, and I may also want to make another Sentry Chariot. I probably don't want to leave that one on the forest there, that might be seen as provocative, but I'll probably want to check there now and then.
I started to run some sims for the naval combat, but after just 3 runs it's pretty clear that it's way too swingy for me to go on the attack. Best case scenario, I actually wipe him out or leave 1 boat remaining. More likely that I kill half his fleet and I lose half mine, which I think actually puts me in the worse position. I'll just have to get a few more boats into the water and dance with Grimace's fleet a little longer.
Or maybe he'll actually do me a favor and just slam his stack into mine. Yeah, right.
Turn 152 [2/2]
Shuffled units around, trying to get more guys into Preston. Geography here is a pain, because although Yamato isn't that far away in a straight line, it's a slow slog by land, and it'll take a lot of boats to ferry enough units over, though I might actually try that. Wary as ever of CH, we'll see what happens. He hasn't played yet. I'm now #1 in power by virtue of the Zulu losing a chunk in their war against Rome (they did take a couple cities it seems). Everyone except the dying Koreans actually have power ratings pretty close, which is interesting. Some, however, can no doubt afford that large military better than I can. Also, really running out of things for workers to do. They'll probably end up sitting idle in a few more turns..... I wonder how quickly Elum is moving on the attack. God, it's probably going to be at least 10 turns before I can even try to take Yamato. Way too long.
FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK! I am a FUCKING idiot! Grimace burned one of my cities. of COURSE there were troops on those galleys! I had noticed that 4 elephants vanished from that stack of his but I didn't put the pieces together! I lost 42 points, so that's probably.... I don't know, it's probably Dipper that burned. Could be Pacifica. I don't know what's wrong with me. Either way, I guess Grimace gets his moment to gloat, and I'll have to replant, regrow, and rebuild a mature city. So fuck me.
Yeah, it was Dipper. Damn it. I could have saved the city (and also defended Pacifica) if I had just whipped an extra unit in either city, or reinforced from somewhere. Now there's 2 towns and 2 villages sitting idle, all that time and infrastructure lost, and just damn. I mean, cooler heads, I'd congratulate Grimace on finding that chink in my defense and taking advantage of it, but I think the reason I'm so upset isn't at the loss of the city but because it was so obviously preventable.
Also, Golden Age ended, and now I see just how bad the economy is. Unit costs, city costs, and other maintenance is overwhelming the empire. We are losing money at 20% science, and barely making anything at 10%. Pacifica will still generate another Merchant in a couple of turns, and honestly, I think I might just burn that and the Artist sitting around on another Golden Age. Might be better uses for them, surely better uses, but I think I need to shut off unit production, kill Grimace with what I have, and use a second Golden Age for a round of infrastructure and wealth builds. Every city needs a courthouse, some cities could use Forges. I'd love to get Grocers in, but we're so far away from Guilds it's not funny. Just another Whosit empire with a bloated score and army, but no economy to back it.
Oh, and I wiped out Grimace's fleet. Only lost a Trireme and a Galley in the process. So that was nice, I guess. I'll be able to take out that WE next turn, no units could reach it this time.
At least I should have uncontested mastery of the seas for the rest of this war.
I should probably take a page out of Commodore's book and chill, knowing that the game has been long over from me. I learned a thing. I gotta think more critically about the information I have. I learned some more about how to build a strong economy/prioritizing the land I settle. Now I'll just try to enjoy the slog through Grimace's army, take as much of his land as I can, burn everything else, and then hunker down for as long as I can. Or something like that.
The game is never over until you're dead. If you don't think you can win anymore, oh well, set yourself some new goals. The fun is in achieving what is possible, not worrying about what is impossible.
Played: Pitboss 18 - Kublai Khan of Germany Somalia | Pitboss 11 - De Gaulle of Byzantium | Pitboss 8 - Churchill of Portugal | PB7 - Mao of Native America | PBEM29 Greens - Mao of Babylon
Yeah, that's what I meant. I don't think I can win, and I don't think it's just pessimism talking. My new set of short-term goals is to finish the war with Grimace for good, take what I can, and do my best to fix my economy. Maybe I can keep enough semi-modern units in my army to deter a major attack from my more powerful neighbors. With my slow tech rate, capturing the GLH should give me a nice little econ boost for a while, and even though Grimace's core looks kinda ugly to me, I think the economy gains outweigh the costs of the new cities and land. Anyway, I've talked about that before. I'm not throwing in the towel, I'm just trying to talk myself down. Sometimes I focus too much on winning when that's not a productive focus.
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