Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Ichabod]

I'll definitely elaborate.

I don't think it is a contradiction, as such. MJW indicated that if he was a villager, he would fake role claim to stay alive.
In this game, there is a wolf voider role. A villager who fake claims a power role might distract the voider.
If MJW was a villager and followed through on his (IMO dubious) tactic, then there would be some gameplay advantage.

He hasn't role claimed though. Which doesn't really prove anything about his ultimate loyalties one way or another, except for the rather tenuous thread that he never said he would fake role claim if he was a wolf.

Either way, he is still a little vexing to play with. The thing I wanted to happen didn't, but he is probably as likely as anyone to be a wolf and I don't think he would be an asset as a villager. So I'm happy with my vote.

This is post 194. You said you gave your reasons to lynch MJW in it.

You posted this moments ago:

"A lot of guff is being talked about "The majority of MJW voters thought he was a villager and were just annoyed at him" That wasn't my reason. I thought there was a good chance he was a wolf".

But here's what you said on post 194:

"The thing I wanted to happen didn't, but he is probably as likely as anyone to be a wolf and I don't think he would be an asset as a villager. So I'm happy with my vote".

Seems a bit contradictory to me.



And about this:

"A planned cover post for what? I bring up the issue about new players, in order to cover and defend myself from an argument about new players?"

What I was trying to say that you could have used this whole "directed to the wolves" thing as a way to show that you are not playing on the same team as the wolves. The same thing bob did when talking about the seer.

That's what I meant with planned cover. Bad choice of words, I'm sorry.



But I have to give a look onto everything again. Try to get a clearer perspective on the whole cenary. It's a shame I probably won't be able to do it before the second day ends. But I try to give other suggestions later.

Will keep my vote for now, though.

[scooter]

Okay, my vote has to go for Irgy. Allow me to explain. First was the obvious one that has been covered, which to me was just TOO blatant for me to ignore:

Ok, losing the seer really sucks. Let's just hope the wolves screw up. Which is already looking a bit desperate, given that as best we can tell we've done everything right so far.

That wasn't enough for me to want to lynch him, but it made him my top suspect, as this just screams of a wolf slip. Obviously I wasn't the first to notice this, but I couldn't just dismiss this like some seemed to be able to. Moving along in the same post:

Bob, you've clearly acted too much like a seer, and the wolves have seen through it.

Keep this quote in mind. This came directly after - by directly I mean two straight Irgy posts:

Oh and novice, how can you possibly say "worst baner ever" with such a strong candidate for that title in WW2? Our current baner is hopefully protecting himself, which is exactly what he should be doing and nothing else.

This bothered me too... I actually don't agree with this. Baner protecting himself is actually stupid, because the wolves have a role blocker, so if they get lucky and guess baner, he's dead anyways. Since the seer is dead, the only person to role block is the baner, which means the wolves will likely role block and kill the same person on the same night. Because of this, it actually makes a lot more sense for the baner to protect someone ELSE, and this post by Irgy screams of a subtle attempt to get the baner to leave other people alone, so that the wolves can take a shot at a more obvious target (like novice if he's not a werewolf). At this point I feel pretty strongly about Irgy, and after wrapping my head around this, I decided to vote for him. I glanced at a few more of his posts, and found this one later on:

Again though Bob, don't take any of this criticism to heart, you were really just unlucky.

This is a direct contradiction to what was posted by Irgy just a few hours before, where Irgy said the wolves obviously figured out that Bob must have been the seer because Bob acted like one too much. Now he insists that the wolves got totally lucky. Which is it, Irgy? I mean, you should know, right? And how DO you know so much about the wolves thought process?

[scooter]

Here I was thinking I had a good post, and then I cross-post with Mardoc who posts a fascinating theory. Here's the thing you should consider Mardoc... I really doubt ALL the wolves would be that obvious... That said, what you might very well be seeing is some wolves "attaching" themselves to villagers, kind of like what I tried in WW2 - where my plan always hinged on Serdoa being lynched first, which would possibly validate me. My guess is that you might have spotted 2, maybe 3 wolves (guessing 2 at the most though), and they have attached themselves to villagers with similar ideas. The hard part is figuring out which are legit and which are sneaky wolves.

Still sticking with my Irgy vote, as I feel I've nailed one here. I'm absolutely willing to listen to where I might be wrong, but I feel like he's trapped himself with his words here.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Mardoc, that was a really good summary post, and it really makes sense. I haven't yet put much time into this game, as you can guess because of real life. Last weekend was inventory and I'm still catching up at work. Hopefully come this weekend the 12 hour days will stop and I will be able to catch up on this game --- not to mention sleep, family time, bills, etc.

Until then, I read a GES post that made me question why I'd vote for him. And Mardoc's post made me reconsider entirely. And given your list, I'd tend to be most afraid of Novice, given the extra power he has within the village.

[Gold Ergo Sum]

Gold Ergo Sum?

My lynch cherry was broken.

Until then, I read a GES post that made me question why I'd vote for him. .

And just like that, I was whole again, but my innocence forever stolen.


That was a seriously huge post Mardoc. I am not sure I follow all your logic though. Several of the quotes you dug up struck me as fairly innocuous. That said, I agree with you that the whole run on Cull, and the response of Lewwyn remains the strangest thing to happen so far.

One thing that is bothering me, though, in terms of strategy, is how often (presumed) villagers are willing to point out strategies that help the wolves that they might not have noticed. I put together a post with some statistical analysis a little earlier and ended up choosing not to post it out of fear of providing advice to the wolves. At what point does being a little too clever in a post become a liability to the village?

[Roland]

... STUFF ...

That has got to be one of the most straw-reaching posts I've seen in any of the three WW games - and I should know, because I think I made a few of my own. :neenernee

I'm not saying I don't suspect one or two people on your list Mardoc, but your whole argument is so circumstantial it's just flat-out full of holes.

I applaud you for your efforts, but honestly, I can't say I find your supporting "evidence" any stronger than a house of cards.

[Roland]

This bothered me too... I actually don't agree with this. Baner protecting himself is actually stupid, because the wolves have a role blocker, so if they get lucky and guess baner, he's dead anyways. Since the seer is dead, the only person to role block is the baner, which means the wolves will likely role block and kill the same person on the same night. Because of this, it actually makes a lot more sense for the baner to protect someone ELSE, and this post by Irgy screams of a subtle attempt to get the baner to leave other people alone, so that the wolves can take a shot at a more obvious target (like novice if he's not a werewolf).

Actually, if my understanding of the Void Wolf is correct, it won't matter who the Baner protects. If the 'Wolves find him, when they role block him his protection will fail, no matter who it falls on. Of course, if they truly think they've found the Baner they probably will use the Void Wolf on him to secure the kill. I don't see the point of them using it on anyone else at this point, except for randomly trying to hit a second person, although that doesn't actually accomplish anything that I can see.

Anyway, I think you're #1 reason for suspecting Irgy is complete trash, in all honesty. That said, I won't say he should be completely without suspicion - just not over semantics. As for his Baner comment, I think he was just generally upset at novice for his snide comment, not realizing it was more sarcastic than anything else. Besides, as I said it really doesn't matter who the Baner protects so long as the Void Wolf is alive - if they find the Baner, his chances of survival are 0%.

As for the comments about Bob, I'd say it's pretty accurate to say they got immensely lucky, although maybe I'm biased - I didn't peg Bob as the Seer at all. Even reading what people quoted I still don't see it. I honestly think it was just a lucky shot in the dark, but maybe I'm simply terrible at reading Seers - I don't think I figured out Fire & Ice was the Seer in WW1 until he was killed. :P

[scooter]

Actually, if my understanding of the Void Wolf is correct, it won't matter who the Baner protects. If the 'Wolves find him, when they role block him his protection will fail, no matter who it falls on. Of course, if they truly think they've found the Baner they probably will use the Void Wolf on him to secure the kill. I don't see the point of them using it on anyone else at this point, except for randomly trying to hit a second person, although that doesn't actually accomplish anything that I can see.

I agree with this, maybe I was unclear.

Anyway, I think you're #1 reason for suspecting Irgy is complete trash, in all honesty. That said, I won't say he should be completely without suspicion - just not over semantics.

I think the slipup alone is weak, but the slipup, combined with the contradictions, combined with giving advice that would only benefit the wolves... Combine those three together and it's definitely not an airtight case, but it's sure better than anything else proposed today. Honestly if it's trash, what are you proposing instead? I'm not being sarcastic, it's a completely serious question, because past Irgy, I have no idea honestly. The more I think about it, the more the Mardoc post is actually a bit more loony than I even realized after my first read through, so that's hardly solid to me either. Honestly if I was allowed to, I'd go back and edit my previous post, because after giving it serious thought, it's a worse theory than I originally thought. So on the basis of all that... This stuff on Irgy sounds a lot more convincing than anything else I've read in day 2. So do you have an alternative?

As for the comments about Bob, I'd say it's pretty accurate to say they got immensely lucky, although maybe I'm biased - I didn't peg Bob as the Seer at all.

I agree with this too honestly, it was probably crazy luck, but I guess we'll never know until the end. What caught my attention was not that Irgy made the comment about it being lucky, but rather that he contradicted himself.

[Bruindane]

So I think it may be healthy to post the people we do suspect. I was a little disconcerted when Lewwyn posted the people he trusted, as the wolves will just pick off those people first, but posting suspects saves time and gives us something to work with if people die.

My top 5 are Irgy, Mr Nice Guy, Selrahc, Gold Ergo Sum, and Sandover.

[Irgy]

Well, Selrahc is getting very frustrated. The one most frustrating thing in the game is when you're a wolf, and get called out for reasons that are incorrect. Although it's only slightly different from the angry frustration of a villager who's getting accused of things that don't make any sense to him. So if Selrahc is a bit of an easily frustrated person then it doesn't mean anything, but something I'll keep in mind anyway.

Suppose a werewolf has a "real life". Mr Nice Guy voted for MJW (twice in fact) using a reason that precluded MJW's werewolfiness. The fact you are defending him for not posting, while saying there must be a MJW wolf is myopic.

I'm not defending anyone for not posting. I'm arguing that one particular band of the activity-list is a better than another one. I don't claim it to be conclusive. Being able to appreciate the existence of separate evidence both for and against the same person is the opposite of being "short sighted" if anything.

I think I've picked out the werewolf team: novice, Meiz, Pocketbeetle, Cull, Lewwyn.

It's an interesting theory. What I don't like about it though is that it involves a list of the most controvertial names in the game. These are exactly the sorts of people that will fit well into this sort of theory. Do you understand what I mean? If someone was going to hallucinate (not exactly the word I'm after but you get the point) such a theory, it would involve names like this.

Whereas I'd be willing to bet that at least two if not three or four of the wolves are under the radar. Like my current vote, JKaen. The silence in response to my suggestion with him has been deafening. It's like no-one knows anything about him, nor is the least bit interested in him. It's mostly that people are too busy with their own theories, but it's still interesting. I'll have to take a look at what exactly it is he's been saying that's had such startlingly little impact on anyone.

My question for you is this: How much of your theory relies on the entire set being wolves? If you take two or three out, does it hold together in part or come crashing down in a heap? If it really only makes sense with at least four of the five members then we can put it on hold for the moment really, because if it's right we can successfully recover by returning to it very late in the game.

That wasn't enough for me to want to lynch him, but it made him my top suspect, as this just screams of a wolf slip. Obviously I wasn't the first to notice this, but I couldn't just dismiss this like some seemed to be able to. Moving along in the same post:

Yeah, until my change of heart on the whole subject through having done just such a thing myself as a villager I'd probably consider this pretty suspicious too.

This bothered me too... I actually don't agree with this. Baner protecting himself is actually stupid, because the wolves have a role blocker, so if they get lucky and guess baner, he's dead anyways. Since the seer is dead, the only person to role block is the baner, which means the wolves will likely role block and kill the same person on the same night.

It's the old "someone has a different opinion to me, and my opinion is right and everyone should think the same, therefore they must be a wolf intentionally speaking rubbish" falacy.

In this case though you're right about the actual issue. I forgot about the role blocker completely. So if the baner self-protects, the wolf counter-strategy is to target the same player with both kill and role-block every night. So, the baner has to play a guessing game instead. I'll leave it up to them to figure out the best strategy for that then.

If I was a wolf I probably wouldn't have forgotten about the voider

This is a direct contradiction to what was posted by Irgy just a few hours before, where Irgy said the wolves obviously figured out that Bob must have been the seer because Bob acted like one too much. Now he insists that the wolves got totally lucky. Which is it, Irgy? I mean, you should know, right? And how DO you know so much about the wolves thought process?

What bollocks. I said in the first post that I criticised him "but don't take it to heart". I said in the second post that I criticised him "but don't take it to heart". And you tell me I'm inconsistent for criticising him in one post and saying he was unlucky in another.

My point was that he's obviously, almost by definition, done everything completely wrong-in-hindsight. But being wrong-in-hindsight doesn't make you a bad player.