[SPOILERS]Novice, Spacemanmf and Athlete4life10 are HUYANA CAPAC OF CHINA

[novice]

Turn 1 is here. Everybody settled in place on a plains hill. Spaceman, do you want to play the turn?

[spacemanmf]

Turn 1 is here. Everybody settled in place on a plains hill. Spaceman, do you want to play the turn?

Yeah will do - cheers.

Just remind me what I need to do to set up the tracker correctly...

[spacemanmf]

OK, here are the latest demographics:



And the new bit of exploration, after hitting end-turn:



1W of the marble to grab the whales and clams is a possibility.

Can we bothered to analyse the GNP to try to assess who might be going for what?

[novice]

Can we bothered to analyse the GNP to try to assess who might be going for what?

I'll give it a shot. Feel free to do the same and we can compare results.

Just remind me what I need to do to set up the tracker correctly...

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=216

[spacemanmf]

For now, I have just sent it normally. Will sort the tracker out now - thanks for the link.

OK, I have worked out our GNP... I think.

It is 22, which I think is 4 espionage + 2 culture + 16 beakers (which is 15 beakers plus the free beaker).

[spacemanmf]

Average GNP of 21 is presumably rounded down, so total GNP could be 105, 106 or 107.

Given we are 22, someone is 26, someone else is 17, I reckon the last two are probably 21 each, i.e. the same situation as us but not financial.

Ad hoc is creative so getting an extra 2 GNP for the culture. I'd guess that is the person on 26. It breaks down as 4 (espionage) + 4 (culture) + 15 (research) x pre-req bonus (1.2?), i.e. 18. Ok, that seems to work.

I'd guess ad hoc is going for a religion then, as we would expect, since otherwise the tech to go for would be mining, which has no pre-req.

Finally, the person on 17 must not be working the cottage, so presumably the rice (going for a quick population increase?). So, 4 esp + 2 cult + 11 res = 17, so no pre-req bonus.

So only one civ with a pre-req bonus and so only one civ going for a religion?

[novice]

So this is a cross-post, but that was kindof the idea.
Spaceman: Rival average does not count your GNP.

Turn 1 demographics analysis.

Everybody is landlocked, and has the same land area and life expectancy, that could mean identical starts.

I had a huge calculation done that didn't add up, and I finally found out I had based it on the mistaken assumption that one person is working the rice, whereas the others are working towns. In fact, by changing our worker to the rice, we show up as third in crop yield with 5 food, which means two players are working the rice. (We lose all ties, as illustrated by the MFG ranking.)

So, the player with the minimum GNP of 17 is working the rice and has 4 ep, 2 culture, 10 commerce and 1 free beaker. So it can't be Ad hoc who's creative, and he doesn't get a pre-req bonus so is not researching bronze working or a religion.

Rival best is 26, whereas financial us only have 22 and are ranked third. Changing our tech to Bronze Working gives us a GNP of 25 (due to Pre-Req bonus) and second place, which means noone has a GNP of 25. Our GNP when working the rice and researching Bronze Working is 19 and still ranked third, which means that two players have a GNP of 17 or 18. I don't think there's any way of getting 18, so two players are working the rice, are non-creative, and are researching a tech with no pre-req bonus.

17+17+26 = 60, and to get an average GNP of 21 we need a total of at least 84, so the last player must have a GNP of 24.

Okay, so two players are working the grassland town for 4 ep, 14 commerce and 1 free beaker, and are getting a 1.2 pre-req bonus on their 15 science for a total GNP of 4+18+culture = 22+culture. So Ad Hoc's in the lead with 26 and a non-creative player is also working the town and has 24. They're both researching something with a pre-req bonus.

Unfortunately, given Ad Hoc's starting techs of Mysticism and The Wheel, he must be researching a religion.

So what are the others researching, and who's working the rice?
TT has Hunting, Agriculture
Pegasus has Agriculture, The Wheel
Ruff_Hi has Fishing, Mysticism

Two of these are researching a base tech and working the rice. I have to say that foregoing a cottage to speed up a worker build by three turns seems like a veteran play. You would have to be pretty confident in long-term return on investment to do that. (Yes, we're n00bs!). So I'm going to guess (hope) that Ruff is working the rice and hence not researching a religion. (He would probably be researching Agriculture). TT has no meaningful second-tier tech to research, so the second-tier tech would have to be Pegasus researching Pottery.

So either Ruff is researching a religion or Pegasus is researching Pottery. What is most likely? Unfortunately, on second thought, Ruff researching a religion. He has time before his worker completes and knows he'll win a coin-flip with Ad Hoc.

Meditation should be a 7-turn tech and Polytheism a 9-turn tech. In four turns we complete Mysticism and have the option of switching over to the rice to speed up the worker by two turns. We should reassess the situation by then.

[spacemanmf]

So this is a cross-post, but that was kindof the idea.
Spaceman: Rival average does not count your GNP.

Dammit, I thought I'd done so well.

Yes, it would say that it is very unlikely that Pottery is a starting tech here with two cottages pre-grown.

Never mind, there's always Monotheism.

[novice]

I got impatient, so I played ahead to T5. We need to decide what to research next.



Just kidding, I did make a sandbox though. Here it is:
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/15215428/PBEM13/...dSwordSave

[spacemanmf]

Haha, I was about to say "hey, you can't do that!".

Hmm, I was thinking about the religions and I suspect that they will get one each (if they really want to get one, that is).

Whichever religion ruff goes for he will get because of the turn order. Ad hoc will find this out before us (I presume) and therefore can, if necessary, switch to the other religious tech and probably beat us on the turn order (I doubt our bonus commerce will be enough).

Therefore I'm beginning to think that we should focus on growth. As per your simulation, BW and the worker both take 10 turns, so we could perhaps immediately chop out another worker. Then build a warrior (or two) whilst farming the rice and wheat, before chopping out a settler. What do you think?