Posts: 2,534
Threads: 22
Joined: Jan 2012
No shit. I'm saying you go from being at most a 10% chance to win your early war with WCs or Impis, to a 2% chance of winning it solely because your target has an extra couple of turns to prepare. Early war is extremely difficult to win. If you want an example, look at Lewwyn and Bigger's spoiler in Pitboss 8. They attacked their close neighbour, who had no metal, no horses, no Archery on Turn 65. It wasn't until turn 180 that they were able to make some actual gains from that war, because the defender traded for horses, whipped out 3-5 chariots in the 2 turns he had to prepare, and the rush fell into a heap. 115 turns of stalemate before the superior economy eventually won out, and by that time there were 3 or 4 civs who'd gone well past them.
It's an extremely high risk maneuver even if you have a strong, quick UU like a War Chariot. It's even riskier if you don't have strong economic techs as backup. It's suicide if you have neither.