Suboptimal IV: Indonesian Insanity

[suboptimal]

Turn 6

The interturn has brought news – a barbarian camp spawned behind our warrior. The good news is that it’s not a horse camp. I may circle back for this once Code of Laws is completed. Warrior moves east and finds a river leading NE away from the mountains. No signs of a city-state yet.

[suboptimal]

Cornflakes, I looked over your micro scenarios and crunched some numbers.  Here are the 3 scenarios to consider (all turn numbers are EoT):

Original Plan Version 1: Buy GFH and work it on Turn 8.  Tile picker takes Pearls on T10 and Sugar T21. Work sugar tile at Pop 5
Milestones: Warrior (T12), Pop 3 (T14), Pop 4 (T22), Settler (T25), Back to Pop 4 (T30), City #2 (T31), Builder (T31), 3 Improvements Complete (T36), Pop 5 (T37)
Capital Yields as of EoT42: 425, 270, 286.8, 77.2
City #2 Yields as of EoT42: 52, 44, 11.2, 4.8, 2 pop (T38), buy monument EoT 42
Total Science & Culture: 298, 82

Original Plan Version 2: Buy GFH and work it on Turn 8.  Tile picker takes Sugar on T10 and Pearls T21. Work sugar tile at Pop 5
Milestones: Warrior (T12), Pop 3 (T14), Pop 4 (T19), Settler (T25), Back to Pop 4 (T27), City #2 (T31), Builder (T30), City #2 (T31), 3 Improvements Complete (T35), Pop 5 (T36)
Capital Yields as of EoT42: 418, 289, 291, 79
City #2 Yields as of EoT42: 52, 44, 11.2, 4.8, 2 pop (T38), buy monument EoT 42
Total Science & Culture: 302, 84

New Plan: No tile buys, warrior -> builder -> settler
Milestones: Warrior (T12), Pop 3 (T19), Builder (T21), 3 Improvements Complete (T26), Settler (T29), City #2 (T35), Pop 4 (T37)
Capital Yields as of EoT42: 328, 279, 272.8, 71.2
City #2 Yields as of EoT42: 32, 24, 5.6, 18.4, 2 pop (T42), but monument on EoT42
Total Science & Culture: 278, 90

Buy the Sugar on T8, Warrior -> Settler -> Builder
Milestones: Warrior (T12), Pop 3 (T14), Pop 4 (T20), Settler (T26, stay at pop 4), City #2 (T31), Builder (T32), Pop 5 (T34), 3 Improvements Complete (T37)
Capital Yields as of EoT42: 443, 249, 301.1, 79.9
City #2 Yields as of EoT42: 52, 44, 11.2, 4.8, 2 pop (T38), buy monument EoT 42
Total Science & Culture: 312, 85


I'm half-tempted to buy the sugar over the GFH.  I think buying a tile, either the GFH or the sugar, is preferable over not doing a tile buy on T8.  Buying either tile early and working sugar late has the capital at Pop 6 by Turn 46.  The new plan is just hitting Pop 5 on Turn 44.   Thoughts?

My city spreadsheet with all four plans is attached for you to take a look at.

[Cornflakes]

Regarding border expansion, if there are no exceptions to what I learned in PBEM 6 the tile expansion order will be:

1) West half of Yosemite
2) Double science tile SW of Yosemite (6 yield goes before anything else)
3) Pearls
4) Sugar
5) GFH 2E of city center
6) Coastal science tile
7) Plains & coastal tiles.

That's so weird I would have expected Pearls/Sugar in some order > Double Science tile > GFH 2E

I am still inclined to think that the best play for us here is Holy Sites at the capital and city #2.  Buying a monument should be doable if the settler is third in the build order, since the city won't be founded until T35 in that case.  If the tile picker stays on track and I hold off as long as possible on techs I might be able to pick up that third ring spot on the cheap.

If the capital does indeed pick up the 2nd Yosemite tile allowing us to keep the costs down and spend just a single tile purchase then that makes sense.

Regarding pantheons do you have any thoughts regarding the burst faith of Goddess of the Harvest vs. the slow and steady drip of Earth Goddess?

When do you plan on using the faith? My thought is that Goddess of the Harvest would fit in nicely with a Classical era golden age > Monumentality push. If you can manage to scrape together the era points for the golden age I think that will pay off massively. Then complete as many cheap techs as you can to raise the chop value and Magnus-chop infrastructure/military while faith purchasing builders & settlers.

TheArchduke gave Earth Goddess a good showing in PBEM 11 and I think that over the long term it would result in an overall higher yield. But Goddess of the Harvest is easier to front load and run the snowball. Plus if you decide to go for a last ditch (or pre-planned) religious victory you can chop/harvest everything at some point without regard to long-term production for a mass infusion of at a critical moment.

I'll look at your Buy Sugar plan when I have a chance.

[suboptimal]

I took another look at Archduke's PBEM 11 game....he noted that a lot of his higher appeal tiles would not lose their appeal from chopping (he wasn't planning on chopping anytime soon). Here we'd lose some appeal as soon as Magnus brings out the chainsaws. One consideration in this game vs. PBEM 11 is Magnus -- IIRC his bonus also applies to the faith yields from GotH. I think Goddess of the Harvest is the way to go unless someone manages to beat us to it.

As for the faith, Monumentality would be one use for it if we get into a Golden Age. I was thinking to hoard faith until we were coming up on Mercenaries, then faith buying a pile of quadriremes for upgrades into Jongs.

Turn 7 coming up....

[suboptimal]

Turn 7

The barbarian scout has headed north, away from my capital. That’s good. Keep going in that direction. In the north the warrior moves along the open terrain by the river. Settlervision spots the 3rd ring of a city-state.




No borders are visible in the fog. Given our gameplan and assuming we get the first-meet bonus I think any city-state type here except for Industrial would be welcome.

Fog-gazing does show that there’s a river fork 2E of the warrior’s current position. I’ll move onto the mercury next turn by going NE-SE to try to uncover some of the coast as well, then into the forest to see what city-state is there. I’ll then try to cross the river north of the fork before turning SE. This would also be a good area for expansion at some point down the road.

[Cornflakes]

My inclination would be to buy the GFH over the Sugar and take the instead of food. Trade 3 turns slower to pop 5 for an extra turn quicker on the settler + builder + subsequent builds. Looking at your numbers on total yields it's pretty close. About 20 additional for 20 less when you choose the GFH. I think the production is more valuable in your position having strong science already from the NW.

Are you still in the lead for the Religious Ranking? As player #1 you should drop out of 1st position if anyone meets a religious CS. If nobody has met a religious CS by now you pretty much have a lock on 1st pantheon unless someone meets 2 religious CS very soon.

I see your micro has city 3 founded after 4-5 turns movements. If you had to settle a city based on the current information, where would you locate it? I'll jot down some thoughts on the northern river valley since those will be relevant for a 3rd/4th city site even if you find excellent terrain to the east for your 2nd city:

   

Before I jot down thoughts on specific locations, one overarching consideration is whether to plant coastal or inland. It will be difficult to produce navy on our west coast if we don't plant coastal along this river. Furthermore a beeline to shipbuilding will be very difficult if we don't plant a coastal city. With Tundra to our south and the city state to our north we either have to plant at the mouth of this river or in the non-fresh-water hills at the very north of this screenshot in order to get a coastal plant. With that in mind, pros/cons for above numbered locations:

1. Pros: Good tiles for first 2 citizens mean builder labor not required immediately, only for Dye plantation at 3rd pop. 2 forests 1st ring to chop. A couple of 2nd and 3rd ring hills for long-term decent production. Cons: Adjacent to barb camp means added danger in the short term. 7 tiles is a long walk for an early settler. Copper is stuck in 3rd ring. Not a coastal location. Blocks any potential non-fresh-water locations in the hills at the far north of the screenshot.
   
2. Compared to #1 ... Pros: brings copper and fish into 2nd ring. Could theoretically chop all adjacent tiles including banana for large yield with GotH. Cons: only 1 good tile in 1st ring. Fewer hills in all rings.
   
3. Pros: Coastal. Cons: All good tiles are 2nd ring which means monument purchase or chop is all but required. This is a very slow-starting location. Also poor long-term production with few 2nd/3rd ring hills.
   
4. Pros: Has Banana and Copper for decent tiles in the 1st ring (builder would be required soon to mine the copper). Cons: not coastal.
   
5. Pros: Coastal. Can share/steal Sugar from capital for quick growth, has GFH for 2nd pop. Several Kampung-eligible tiles. Cons: Poor long-term production potential due to few unique hills (can steal a couple from the capital). Will need a monument soon because it will quickly grow past the useful tiles. Practically orphans banana in 3rd ring
   
6. Worse than 4. Compared to 4 ... pros: 1 movement-turn closer to capital. Cons: Loses the banana to 2nd ring while picking up GFH 1st ring. Burns a forest on the city center tile instead of jungle.
   

None of those tiles jump out at me as a strong 2nd city. Forced to choose I'd probably take #3 as a 3rd city site with an immediate Monument purchase. Work the plain forest for the production while waiting to pick up the Banana > Copper > Fish tiles with the border pops. For a 2nd city site maybe 5? To take advantage of tile sharing and the GFH? I'm hoping something better will show up along the river just in the fog to the east of the capital.

[suboptimal]

I think you're right regarding buying the GFH - more production now vs. the science. We should be able to work that 6-yield tile naturally one we get near the housing cap in the mid 40's.

Regarding the religious ranking we are still first as of Turn 7.

I'm allowing 4-5 turns of movement for the settler because the only 1MP tiles in the area are the grassland directly NE of the capital, the horse to the east and the three plains on the other side of the lake and the NW. EVERYTHING else that we can see is difficult terrain until you get north of the mountains where the warrior is or (presumably) into the fog to the east. Great for defense of the core/capital, but crap to explore out of at the start of the game. Once the warrior is built it will go down to the plains tile E of the pearls (to check for a tundra city-state) then turn to the or cross the river at the tundra forest 2E of the pearls.

For City #2 I'm currently considering the location NE-E of the dyes - it's the first fresh water in that direction (riverside) and puts three resources (copper, dyes, horses) in the 2nd ring. The built warrior is going to head in that direction (moving along the tundra in the hopes that it's flatter) to scout it out. I'd put the holy site on the tile NW of the city center (though it is a plains hill) for the +2 adjacency. It's 5 turns of movement to this location, 4 if the fogged tile NE of the horses is flat.

The river in the north is exactly why we moved the capital -- there's no truly good spots. For City #3 I'm currently thinking coastal near our original start position, 2E of the pearls on the river (your plot #5 in the diagram). You cover the pros and it would be able to borrow the copper tile from City #2 if it needed production. First ring it has two hills (GFH and #6 first ring), two more second ring that could be swapped with other cities. It will be production challenged in the intermediate term. However, it allows the placement of a closer city #4 in the north (on the hill just W of the 1/3 forest). I agree that the third city must be coastal. The only thing we could hope for is for there to be enough temperate land W of Yosemite for a reasonable city. Of course, getting there is a pain without shipbuilding.

The 3/2 bananas might not wind up orphaned. The river by the warrior goes into the fog past the mountain 2SE of the warrior's current position and into the fog without ending. If the bananas is the western end of a pass there might be room for a city within that mountain range. The second warrior can check that out (or perhaps the first one, depending on what happens).

I need to sit down later tonight or tomorrow and figure out the tech plan.

[suboptimal]

Turn 8

I did a quick check this morning as I thought I overlooked something in the city micro – I had forgotten whether or not buying tiles affects the rate of cultural expansion. If it did it would have changed things around (and I’d probably be buying the sugar). As it is the rate of expansion appears unchanged, so GFH purchase it is.

The interturn has brought no interesting news except for the fact that we are the first to reach 2 population. Everyone else, despite settling a turn earlier, is still at 1 pop. I buy the GFH and the tile buy reveals a grassland to the E and marsh rice SE of the GFH. I also change techs to Mining, will change to Animal Husbandry in 3 turns.

The warrior does his jig. I think anyone coming by land is going to be coming from the east or not bothering at all. That mountain chain continues eastwards:

[Cornflakes]

I buy the GFH and the tile buy reveals a grassland to the E and marsh rice SE of the GFH

Sounds like E-E to the GFH might be best scouting moves for the new warrior? With potential for 2-move through either the grassland E or the horse NE. You mentioned above wanting to explore the plains SE of the capital for a potential tundra city but I don't think it would be helpful at this point to scout the tundra. Instead try to explore E-NE of the capital as quickly as possible around the potential 2nd city site. It'll only have about 6 or so turns to explore before you need to start returning to guard the settler.

[suboptimal]

Yep - the new warrior will go E-E to the GFH. That'll give good visibility to the edge of the capital's settlervision radius. If there's a tundra city-state along that river we should be able to see it from there. After reaching the GFH I'll head NE for the river and points E of the horses.