RB PBEM #1 - Mehmed (SPOILERS!)

[LiPing]

I guess the 'messed up' is referring to the stuff S, SW of vienna on the unroaded hill?

[sunrise089]

I've not been following things as closely as I would like, but doesn't allying with MH to kill Athlete work a lot better for you (land and location of new cities wise) than allying with Athlete to kill MH?

[Dreylin]

And a summary sent to Ruff with a request for advice:

Hey Ruff,

When you get a chance, I'd like to get your impressions on the situation in the West and how I (we) proceed against TOG.

I just received a request for Peace from mh, with what amount to Capitulation terms. He has been Drafting like crazy, and points out that with his lack of food this basically ruins his economy. He has offered:
Anyway, in the current position I am prepared to offer you that I leave my tech alliance.

I will not gift any techs to athlete or sooooo.
I will stop supplying athlete with my spare wines.
I will stop any hostile actions towards you (war, spy activities).
Furthermore I am willing to pay some reparations to your civ. However, keep in mind, that in the current state it won't amount to much and will permanently hinder me coming back on my feet.
The future cooperation/dependency is really for you to decide. At the moment I am not good to anyone tech-wise.
There is of course the possibility of you boosting my civ back on track and me becoming a valuable minor partner to your civ. But that's probably just me, up in dream land.

He also says that his:

supposedly best ally has "accidentally messed up" his troop movements at the most important point in the battle and is therefore not able to contribute in the current struggle the way I liked or hoped.

Which definitely indicates that athlete is at least considering the offers I have been making to him to switch sides and join us. The offer I sent to him this morning was:

If you switched sides and joined the attack, then I think we would definitely push to eliminate him quickly and completely. I would hope you could contribute some units, but I think I'd be able to take care of the Siege capability, at least. As you see from above, I would not be planning to keep mh's core cities myself (well maybe I'm not 100% sure about Aachen), so those would be available for you if you wanted them. I would intend to replace Vienna 1NE of the current location to provide a land corridor to his Eastern coastal cities, which I may also keep. You would be able to maintain a land corridor between Medina and Prague, or even put a city in that gap to secure it. So basically you would have access to the bulk of mh's improved lands, though I may hit you up for the odd spare resource!

So we need to decide whether we would rather ally with (trust) mh, or athlete. As I see it, this is a long term vs. short term decision:

Allying with athlete should lead to a quick defeat of mh, bring us up to tech parity almost immediately (we can steal Mil Trad), isolates sooooo technologically, but ultimately leaves athlete more powerful and more difficult to deal with.

OTOH, mh is pretty-much tapped out as a tech or military force, while athlete is unprepared for a strike against him (though he does have the money to fund upgrades to Currassier). We would still be behind in tech, however if we could take a sizeable chunk out of athlete that would reduce his teching power and again isolate sooooo.

I'll need to get the turn to see the strategic position before we commit to a final course of action, but this is really an Alliance decision.

BTW, I think I can offer you Iron next turn if you need it urgently, but I may want to squeeze out a few Pikes first if I'm going up gainst Currassiers. Of course if we go with mh, then I think we can get his spare Iron immediately.

Dreylin.

[Dreylin]

I guess the 'messed up' is referring to the stuff S, SW of vienna on the unroaded hill?

Yeah, I'm guessing that; although everything except the Cats could still have reached my stack.

I've not been following things as closely as I would like, but doesn't allying with MH to kill Athlete work a lot better for you (land and location of new cities wise) than allying with Athlete to kill MH?

As you say it would work better for me from that perspective, as well as leaving me with a much weaker neighbour than if I allied with athlete. In larger considerations though, it leaves Ruff and I still in a tech hole, and likely facing Cavalry in not too many turns. The battle with athlete would likely be a slog unless I could take take out his current troops quickly and cleanly, and would leave sooooo a tech partner for longer, so probably be longer before Ruff would be able to challenge him.

As I said to Ruff, it's really a short-term(athlete) vs. long-term(mh) decision.

[Dreylin]

Hi,
thanks for the quick response.
As for your questions:
1) Mixed. I threw in my Knights. There is only one healthy Jan left (and a HA). The rest is injured to some extent, the cannons quite badly. Iirc there should in fact be 5healthy muskets in Vienna. I am not sunrise, but I would say, there is no guarantee you will take Vienna this turn, if you attack, unless you have a stack of 2movers within striking distance.
2) No.
3) I think so, yes.
4) Currassiers require Rifling, which is not around, so no.

So you have a NAP with athlete. I will have to dig through my old eMails, but I think that is news to me.
My good relations with athlete go back to the time, were we messed up the early teching and got left behind by both researching Monarchy.
Since then we have a very close relationship, gifting techs without keeping track of beakers (which worked in athletes favour in the beginning, and more in my towards the end), me gifting him wines for free since ages, me gifting him my 10XP unit to get HE going, and planning mutual military actions.
So I am a tiny bit disappointed.
His city placements as been a bit odd in the south and his military build up a bit half hearted. But a NAP with you explains that to some extent of course.

Interesting, I guess I didn't realise that he and athlete had quite such a close relationship ... or that athlete had been playing both sides for so long.

Hi again,

Ouch, that's a bit worse than I was expecting from your forces ... but then I had half-expected athlete to be attacking as well, so I guess it's not all bad! Sounds like you're right about my not being able to take Vienna this turn.

It's Cavalry that require Rifling; Currassiers just require Military Tradition and Gunpowder, though I'm not sure how much it costs to upgrade a Knight or Camel Archer.

One more question:

I'm not sure about reparations, but would you gift me your Iron as part of our settlement? That would at least reassure me that you weren't building up a secret force of Currassier or Cavalry in the depths of your Civ.

Dreylin.

[Dreylin]

Got this just before the turn arrived:

Hi,
you are of course right about Cuirassiers.
What confused me, is the fact that I request RP from athlete and MT from soooo the turn before, apparently never checked whether I got it, but only saw I could not build Cuirassiers, therefore assuming Rifling is required.
There is a chance I somehow screwed up the tech request a couple of turns back, but there is also a chance both denied my request.
I tend to think it is the former.
So to clarify, I do not have RP and MT as of last turn, but can get it this turn. So Cuirassiers are closer at hand than I thought (should spend more time with the game, really).
Nevertheless, my offer stands. And no I have not seen any athlete Cuirassiers.


Regards
mh

[Dreylin]

And an ongoing chat with Ruff:

Ruff.Hi: I have the turn
anything to discuss?

me: Hmmm
you mean other than whether to accept mh's peace proposal?

Ruff.Hi: yeah - which way are you leaning

me: I really don't know

Ruff.Hi: who do you trust?

me: neither of them

Ruff.Hi: one more than the other?

me: maybe
exchanged a couple more e-mails with mh

Ruff.Hi: well - I certainly trust one more than the other
just wondering if we are leaning in the same way

me: he says that he didn't know about athlete & my NAP

Ruff.Hi: do you need to make a decision this turn?

me: & it sounds like his and athlete's agreement included a mutual-defense

Ruff.Hi: oh - and what is the turn order ... you, ath, mh or the other way around?

me: I can probably hold off for 1t

Ruff.Hi: I trust mh much more than athlete

me: mh counter-attacked and my stack is injured
need to see how much, but I don't think I can take Vienna this turn

Ruff.Hi: do you have compass?

me: no
but you can't trade it anyway

Ruff.Hi: well - I popped it and cannot trade it
stupid game mechanics

me: meh
anyway
I tend to agree with your assessment
athlete has clearly been hedging his bets for a while

Ruff.Hi: I would give it 1 more turn ... basically give athlete some rope to hang himself with
I have a sneaking feeling that he will attack you

me: He should have done it last turn

Ruff.Hi: and if he does, NAP is gone and you can team up with mh and turn on athlete

me: However, if I don't sign Peace with mh this turn
and athlete does attack, will mh still be willing to sign peace next turn now his ally has joined in

Ruff.Hi: good pt

me: What is athlete's cash reserve like?
he had 300-400g last turn
iirc

Ruff.Hi: 508
he is buring about 80 per turn
I need to talk pesky dog for walk
but I haven't finished my turn yet

me: Oh, does mh have RP yet?
athlete should have finished it, but I don't know if it'd have been handed over yet
508g means that athlete hasn't upgraded anything to Currassier

Ruff.Hi: doesn't say
but he can tech rifling
he has mil trad

me: Can mh reserach RP?
or Rifling?

Ruff.Hi: mh can researech RP
sooooo can research RP

me: OK, so i hasn't changed hands yet

Ruff.Hi: athlete can research rifling
could be on its way around
sooooo is on compass

me: indeed

Ruff.Hi: you just finished PP?

me: will this turn
you will get it not next turn, but one after
So this turn and next you save gold
turn after start teching
& I feed gold as needed

Ruff.Hi: you put a big dent in mh power
I think that you should take the mh offer
athlete power is lowest

me: 93,000 soldier points

Ruff.Hi: who gets to keep Vienna?

me: mh
his offer is conditional on that

Ruff.Hi: if he gives that up, he is totally shielded from athlete

me: plus I stop killing his doods

Ruff.Hi: and you ask him to trade me iron
then we can start preparing for an athlete and sooooo war

me: I've actualy asked him to trade me his Iron as part of settlement

Ruff.Hi: ok
ok - need to go for walk
will forward the turn when I get back

me: OK

[Dreylin]

t111 - OK, so let's see what's up with the turn.

Istanbul, Edirne, Konya, Gaziantep & Sarmatian complete builds and are set to Research for now.

mh's counter-attack ran:
Knight vs. Jann @ 30% - loses
Knight vs. Jann @ 30% - wins unscathed (ouch!) - 4 units flanked
Knight vs. Jann @ 30% - loses
Knight vs. Jann @ 30% - loses
I get a GG in Samsun.
Knight vs. Cann @ 33% - loses
Musket vs. Cann @ 24% - loses
Knight vs. Cann @ 68% - wins - 3 units flanked
mh gets a GG in Nuremburg.

So we both get a GG; I lose a Cannon & a Janissary, while he lost 4 Knights and a Musket.

Vienna now contains:
GG Musketman (CG3, Drill1, Pinch, Morale)
3x Musketmen (CG1, D1 uninjured)
Musketman (CG1, D1 - 1.8/9)
Knight (C1, uninjured)
Knight (C1, Pinch - 4.3/10)
Landsknecht (C1 - 1.4/6)

My forces:
4x Cannon (all nearly dead)
7x Janns (1 uninjured, 5 slightly injured, 1 half-health)
3x HA (1 near-dead, 2 uninjured)
5x Cats (2 slightly injured, 3 half-health)
Pike (half-health)
Chariot (uninjured)

With no Cannons, the best odds I can get are a 20% withdrawal from a HA, or a 3.7% victory chance from an uninjured C1, Pinch Jannissary. Nice GG.

Athlete's forces are all over the shop. His obsolete stack is now sitting completely useless on the unroaded hill 1W of Vienna, while his CAs are on the hill 3S of Vienna. Ahhhhh, I think I see the plan!

He has just roaded the tile NE of that location (3W, 1N of Bursa). Next turn he can road 2W of Bursa and give himself a route to attack the city with 4x Camel Archers. OK, soI have to ensure that Bursa contains sufficient units to prevent that plan without it being too obvious.

Oh, and <someone> has kindly cut off my irrigation again! <Sigh>

OK, so I start by moving the new and already in-transit units forward - most of them heading via the Southern route to Bursa in order to keep them close to Zapotec. Also move the Spy into Zapotec.

Workers do their thing in the background, and the Confucian Missionary from Edirne moves to storage in Ankara since Izmir got a natural spread.

I won't be able to get the GG to the front this turn (even with mh's morale trick), so I just move it as far forward as possible to leave my options open for next turn.

I leave a CG2 Jannissary in Bursa, along with a Cannon - that's 4 units. Much as I want to draw athlete into an attack, losing Bursa would be a disaster. The four units now present plus the Cannon due to complete will ensure it cannot fall.

Konya drafts, and the Jann boards the new Galley, which moves towards Mainz. Grab a second Draft from Samsun, and a first from Edirne.

Istanbul starts a 1t Theatre, Edirne a Courthouse, and Konya, Gaziantep & Samatian Conf Monasteries.

Research is set to 40% (+4gpt) to complete PP.

I offer Peace to mh.

[Dreylin]

mh,

I have decided to accept your Peace proposal, and offered it in-game. I did move my reinforcements up to join the main stack, however I did not attack any of your units - even the annoying Scout! The terms you offered were as follows:

Anyway, in the current position I am prepared to offer you that I leave my tech alliance.
I will not gift any techs to athlete or sooooo.
I will stop supplying athlete with my spare wines.
I will stop any hostile actions towards you (war, spy activities).
Furthermore I am willing to pay some reparations to your civ. However, keep in mind, that in the current state it won't amount to much and will permanently hinder me coming back on my feet.
The future cooperation/dependency is really for you to decide. At the moment I am not good to anyone tech-wise.
There is of course the possibility of you boosting my civ back on track and me becoming a valuable minor partner to your civ. But that's probably just me, up in dream land.

As far as your offer of repartions is concerned; I will be content with just your spare Wine and your spare Iron for the minimum 10t, and we can negotiate for a continuation after that. I would also like to suggest a map exchange.

I do note however that that there is no duration attached to the NAP - at least I'm assuming you want the no hostile actions to be mutual and not just one-sided! I suggest that we put an indefinite NAP in place with a 10t cooling-off period, to last at minimum through to t140. I would also like to include a clause preventing aiding a third party at war with either of us - e.g. no ROP for offensive units, not supplying additional forces if either of us ended up in a war with athlete.

I will take your acceptance of the in-game Peace as an agreement to these terms - I don't think that they are too unreasonable, and are not intended to try to drag your civ further down. In fact Ruff and I have talked and we would like to explore how the three of us could cooperate in the future ... if you're interested?

Dreylin II.

[Cyneheard]

That was a quick war.

I like the reparations: Free for MH, but they benefit you+Ruff immensely.

Assuming MH says yes, what are your intentions for athlete?
And your GG: is he going to make a Medic III unit?