September 10th, 2011, 23:03
Posts: 8,022
Threads: 37
Joined: Jan 2006
Mr. Nice Guy Wrote:Thank you for at least commenting. I'm with you on the day 2 frustration. I feel like I've put a lot of thought into my comments but I haven't received much in terms of actual commentary. Even dissenting commentary helps the village. In fact, dissenting commentary is probably better than complete agreement.
That said, I'm frustrated. I really feel like we should be pushing for one of Sareln or Injera. I've had quite a few words about why I suspect each, and to make matters worse, people have largely ignored them. I expect that if they were innocent, at least 1-2 players (maybe wolves, maybe not) would join me, in an attempt to get the zaks and Rolands of the world into a bandwagon in a villager-vs-villager day. But with either one being a wolf, I would expect to see exactly what we're seeing... a push to try and get someone else killed.
If I must, I can accept the fact that my targets won't get lynched. But I work tomorrow, so I really only have 2 hours or so to post my final vote of the day. Will it be Erebus, Catwalk, or is there any chance that one of my 2 prime targets get lynched?
Well, its certainly not my decision to make, but I could definitely be persuaded into Sareln. He's not my first choice, but he's a choice. Injera, as I said, I just don't see.
I empathize MNG. I can tell you're really giving it your all, so to that note, much appreciated.
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
September 10th, 2011, 23:10
Posts: 8,022
Threads: 37
Joined: Jan 2006
On that note, probably due a tally. I picked this up from where Sareln left off only, so if there are issues prior, I take no responsibility. 
Lynch tally:
4v: Erebus (Zakalwe, Catwalk, Gaspar, scooter)
3v: Catwalk (Erebus, Roland, Injera)
2v: Zakalwe (Serdoa)
1v: JKaen ( Sareln)
1v: Scooter (Meiz)
1v: Injera(MNG)
Not Voting (3/14): Ichabod, JKaen, Twinkletoes
History:
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
September 10th, 2011, 23:14
Posts: 1,160
Threads: 3
Joined: Jan 2010
So if you and I vote Sareln, the tally is 3-3-2-2. If I vote Erebus or Catwalk, suddenly we're looking at a 5-3-2 or a 4-4-2 situation. Since all 3 are really on my list of suspects... which is a better situation from a game theory perspective? I don't like the idea of the wolves having their choice of 4 people to vote for, but I also get nervous about being wrong on 2 suspects, as I was yesterday.
You can get a look at a t-bone by looking up the bulls ass but I'd rather take the butcher's word for it.
September 10th, 2011, 23:17
Posts: 739
Threads: 6
Joined: Sep 2004
Gaspar Wrote:On that note, probably due a tally. I picked this up from where Sareln left off only, so if there are issues prior, I take no responsibility.
Lynch tally:
4v: Erebus (Zakalwe, Catwalk, Gaspar, scooter)
3v: Catwalk (Erebus, Roland, Injera)
2v: Zakalwe (Serdoa)
1v: JKaen ( Sareln)
1v: Scooter (Meiz)
1v: Injera(MNG)
Not Voting (3/14): Ichabod, JKaen, Twinkletoes
History:
Sareln moved from Jkaen to Erebus, right after scooter does.
September 10th, 2011, 23:25
Posts: 739
Threads: 6
Joined: Sep 2004
Lynch tally:
5v: Erebus (Zakalwe, Catwalk, Gaspar, scooter, Sareln)
3v: Catwalk (Erebus, Roland, Injera)
2v: Zakalwe (Serdoa)
1v: Scooter (Meiz)
1v: Injera (MNG)
Not Voting (3/14): Ichabod, JKaen, Twinkletoes
History:
September 10th, 2011, 23:26
Posts: 8,022
Threads: 37
Joined: Jan 2006
Mr. Nice Guy Wrote:So if you and I vote Sareln, the tally is 3-3-2-2. If I vote Erebus or Catwalk, suddenly we're looking at a 5-3-2 or a 4-4-2 situation. Since all 3 are really on my list of suspects... which is a better situation from a game theory perspective? I don't like the idea of the wolves having their choice of 4 people to vote for, but I also get nervous about being wrong on 2 suspects, as I was yesterday.
Roland Wrote:Sareln moved from Jkaen to Erebus, right after scooter does.
The lesson as always, is I'm an idiot. Fixed tally at end of this post.
And MNG, its too early to tell. 4 candidates is really no candidates but typically we're not really into the business end of the day until the Euros wake up tomorrow and do their shuffling about. I'm intending to stay on Erebus for the time being since I believe there was something concrete there, but as you well know, I consider my vote fluid. I would like to hear some Sareln comments on something other than whether or not he sucks at Werewolf in the meantime, though. 
Lynch:
5v: Erebus (Zakalwe, Catwalk, Gaspar, scooter, Sareln)
3v: Catwalk (Erebus, Roland, Injera)
1v: Zakalwe (Serdoa)
1v: Scooter (Meiz)
1v: Injera(MNG)
Not Voting (3/14): Ichabod, Jkaen, Twinkletoes89
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
September 10th, 2011, 23:39
Posts: 1,160
Threads: 3
Joined: Jan 2010
Gaspar Wrote:Lynch:
5v: Erebus (Zakalwe, Catwalk, Gaspar, scooter, Sareln)
3v: Catwalk (Erebus, Roland, Injera)
1v: Zakalwe (Serdoa)
1v: Scooter (Meiz)
1v: Injera(MNG)
Not Voting (3/14): Ichabod, Jkaen, Twinkletoes89
So my suspects, in this order:
*Injera
*Erebus
*Sareln
*Catwalk
*Scooter
*Twinkletoes
My top two suspects are together voting for my #4 suspect. My #3-#5 suspects are voting for my #2 suspect. And I'm feeling like if my vote is on anyone else, it may get wasted. What to do, what to do? Gaspar, Roland, if you're still around now, you have dissenting opinions. I'll re-read both of their posts for quotes and other suspicious things to tip the balance. Any particular quotes or posts I should read?
You can get a look at a t-bone by looking up the bulls ass but I'd rather take the butcher's word for it.
September 11th, 2011, 00:09
Posts: 1,160
Threads: 3
Joined: Jan 2010
Erebus summary:
- Votes Gaspar mayor. Not too serious post.
- Votes zak for lynch on the grounds that he wanted to get uberfish vig-killed. Actually a sensible post when I take off my zak-is-villager glasses.
- Wants to see if TT+uber is a wolfy combination. Decides lynching uberfish is worth the information, votes to lynch uberfish.
- Explains (well, I believe) his previous two votes, and moves his vote to TT. He's previously expressed interest in TT, and lists his reason as TT being hypocritical. Not a bad reason at this point in the game.
- Explains why lynching uberfish is a bad idea. The uberfish move, he says, was high-risk high-reward for a villager, but high-risk low-reward for a wolf. Therefore, uberfish was a villager.
- Comments on bad vigilantes, and votes on JKaen for not behaving as Erebus would have expected, and being quiet. Assumes that Rowain was the vig-target. That gets him suspected, but even on the re-read I have trouble catching how suspicious that comment was.
- Explains previous vigilante comments. Pretty straightforward, I find, because I never did see anything terribly suspicious about his earlier "slip".
- Comments on his list of innocents/guilty parties. Somehow leaves me off all lists?
 
- Posts his "fake edit" post. Shows frustration having to continually defend his "slip". This post feels "fake" not just for the "edit" but for the overall tone. Where Gaspar, Roland, and zak have all shown frustration this game, Erebus here demonstrated frustration but didn't sell me on it, if that makes sense.
- Moves his vote to Catwalk (where it has stayed since). Catwalk was previously listed as "neutral" but he is listed as "flip-flopping lately" Since I'll also be looking at Catwalk in a few minutes, this was post # 439. Will be interesting to see if Catwalk has been flip-flopping.
- Discusses "fake-edit": wanted to out the (presumed) vigilante. Then claims to not be the vigilante.
- Tally post
- Again with the not wanting to out the vigilante.
- Again with the correcting of the tally
- Again with the not wanting to out the vigilante.
- And for emphasis, one more time with the not wanting to out the vigilante. But this time, there's more! Outing the vigilante would get the wolves to kill him and to save Erebus
- And again with the correcting of the tally.
- And again with the not wanting to out the vigilante. And... he'll be around later, maybe.
I'm guessing if Erebus comes around again tonight, it will be to either correct a tally, or explain why he didn't want to out the baner.
That was painful. I hope Catwalk isn't that painful, else I'll vote Erebus just to save myself another one of these re-reads.
You can get a look at a t-bone by looking up the bulls ass but I'd rather take the butcher's word for it.
September 11th, 2011, 00:17
Posts: 739
Threads: 6
Joined: Sep 2004
Mr. Nice Guy Wrote:So my suspects, in this order:
*Injera
*Erebus
*Sareln
*Catwalk
*Scooter
*Twinkletoes
My top two suspects are together voting for my #4 suspect. My #3-#5 suspects are voting for my #2 suspect. And I'm feeling like if my vote is on anyone else, it may get wasted. What to do, what to do? Gaspar, Roland, if you're still around now, you have dissenting opinions. I'll re-read both of their posts for quotes and other suspicious things to tip the balance. Any particular quotes or posts I should read?
Well, my opinion on Injera really hasn't changed much throughout - I think he's a helpful Villager who happens to be a newbie to WW. I think the fact that he's new has led some to believe his behavior is 'Wolfish, instead of merely inexperienced, but overall I get a strong helpful vibe from him.
Erebus... I'm torn on. He's somewhat tough to read, despite how I think he is making an effort. I think his latest stunt - and the one that's landed him in hot water - has actually showcased his innocence more than his guilt, but that's a gut feeling and it's about 52% innocent / 48% guilty. I get the feeling he's a newbie Villager who panicked at the first sign of real pressure, and because of that he's got a tough road to travel in order to convince some of our more... tenacious players that he's not a 'Wolf. I could go either way on him, but as I said for the moment he's ringing more innocent than guilty (shades of uberfish's situation abound), and seeing how quickly he's risen to the top of people's suspect list I'm inclined to buck the trend and focus my efforts elsewhere.
Sareln is an enigma to me. Nothing concrete to signify his guilt or his innocence, just a slew of little things that make him seem suspicious. If I wasn't more convinced of Catwalk's guilt I'd probably be pushing against him harder, but right now I have stronger feelings about others, so that's where I'm pushing. Depending on how today goes, I may or may not be focusing on him much more afterwards.
Catwalk, as I'm sure you could guess, is my primary suspect. Plenty of things about him make me suspect him. I don't think I need to rehash it too much - it's well documented throughout my conversations with him.
scooter initially was raising some alarm bells, but his more recent posts coupled with his explanation about reduced time (and being signed up for the game accidentally) make me less inclined to label him a 'Wolf instead of just noncommittal. I'm keeping a sharp eye on him, but Sareln ranks higher in my list than he does. I don't see scooter trying to manipulate people like I have in the past, and that's something I'd expect a 'Wolf scooter to do - stir the hornet's nest and turn people against one another.
Twinkletoes... I'm undecided. Not clearly innocent, but giving more vibes towards that than guilty. Part of his problem is his admitted lack of time (too many of these people in this game for my tastes, but I understand RL things come up unexpectedly, so it's not a criticism towards anyone in particular), which makes him more difficult to read. Another one to keep my eye on, but not someone I'm going to be driving for - unless something changes, obviously.
As expected, I think you're on the right track with some people, and on the wrong track with others. That's going to happen - no two people are going to agree 100% on anything, least of all in this game (and if they do there's something wrong :neenernee). My advice? Go with what you feel is best. I'm not going to tell you where to put your vote; only you can decide that. You asked my opinions, I've given them. Above all else, though, I encourage you to think for yourself, using the observations of others as a tool to see things you might not otherwise - regardless of whether you agree with the person in the end.
September 11th, 2011, 00:35
Posts: 8,022
Threads: 37
Joined: Jan 2006
Probably my last post for the night - sadly my last sitting at my computer post for the day, actually as I'll be working all day tomorrow though I smoke a lot, so I'll check in frequently.
Anyway, I think what you're doing is quite useful MNG - though I suppose it all boils down to your own gut. As Roland stated, you can certainly make an argument that Erebus's pulling a MJW from WW2 where he panicked under some early pressure. MJW nearly got himself lynched there and it would have been bad for the village. Still, Erebus isn't in his first rodeo here so I'm inclined to think he's hiding something and with wolf being the most common power role left that's where my instinct lies.
I intend to see what the Euros come up with today, of course, but I feel pretty good about my vote right now.
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
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