WW33 - Walking Dead [GAME THREAD]

[zakalwe]

Yes sir, I agree sir, and I think it's an excellent strategy, sir.

Now let's go nail that unvote guy, he's been shady all game anyway.

Hashoosh, the known priors here are that four of the rolls were DDVV. If you want to go down that route, you have to calculate the odds that the other rolls were, say, CCV. Calculating the odds of starting from scratch and rolling DDVVCCV is NOT the way to do it, as those odds will indeed be minuscule.

Q is confirmed, Catwalk explained it pretty well. He can't be the only power role who is lying, and at the same time, there can't be more than one power role who is lying.

[Jabbz]

Your vote was T DD V X X X :P Shouldn't have put those in red.

[Jabbz]

We didn't know there was at least a 1sV, there could have been a full V at that point. I slipped there. What we couldn't have was a 1sv + v AND an sk. The only possible options at that point, as I could understand them, were 1sV + sk, or 1sv + V. The first day shot was bad, and yes, so was mine. I find it unlikely however that both of us would make stupid mistakes on the first night, especially as, from what I can see, he isn't new to this game. The odds of a 1sv + SK are lower than the odds of a 1sv +sk. Everything he claims would apply to an SK. So really easy question for you. Does an SK HAVE to kill every night? More to the point, is there any reason a SK wouldn't fire on night 2? We only had two deaths on night two, and Qg claimed one. If the answer to the first question is yes, then I can't be the SK. If the answer to the second is no, then I can't be the SK. I'll give you a hint, I'm not the Sk.

The following are possible reasons for only two kills last night:
- You are a 1 shot Vig and we have no SK
- Several kills doubled up, i.e. two people targeted Rowain
- A bullet-proof SK was the scums target
- Either the SK or the scum chose not to kill.

Last shot at you, because I think it is counter-productive for tonight, but there is also the -I am 1 shot Vig, and we HAVE an SK.

Anyway, on to people who are actually worth lynching tonight.

[Qgqqqqq]

Jabbz, if I (and no other PR) is lying then the setup is:
V DD CC TT
Which has no SK.

If I and Catwalk are lying then the setup is:
V DD TTTT
Which is impossible as there is no SK.

If I and you are lying the the setup is:
DD CC TTT
Which does have a SK, but no vigs and thus is impossible because there is no way that setup can yield 3 kills. (And besides, you know that you aren't lying).

Therefore, we know that I cannot be a SK. Catwalk has already done the math on why I cannot be scum.

[Jabbz]

Yes sir, I agree sir, and I think it's an excellent strategy, sir.

Now let's go nail that unvote guy, he's been shady all game anyway.

Hashoosh, the known priors here are that four of the rolls were DDVV. If you want to go down that route, you have to calculate the odds that the other rolls were, say, CCV. Calculating the odds of starting from scratch and rolling DDVVCCV is NOT the way to do it, as those odds will indeed be minuscule.

Q is confirmed, Catwalk explained it pretty well. He can't be the only power role who is lying, and at the same time, there can't be more than one power role who is lying.

I would go along with the joke of voting for unvote, but doing so would actually hurt you Zak, and I don't think you are scum, so I wont do that.

[Jabbz]

Have to take off for a while, BBL with my "Matt is a scary bad persion... or is he" exclusive report.

[Jabbz]

Jabbz, if I (and no other PR) is lying then the setup is:
V DD CC TT
Which has no SK.

If I and Catwalk are lying then the setup is:
V DD TTTT
Which is impossible as there is no SK.

If I and you are lying the the setup is:
DD CC TTT
Which does have a SK, but no vigs and thus is impossible because there is no way that setup can yield 3 kills. (And besides, you know that you aren't lying).

Therefore, we know that I cannot be a SK. Catwalk has already done the math on why I cannot be scum.

When I have time I'll try to break that down. You won't have my vote today anyway, so no hurry on that. Got to go, getting yelled at by wife.

[Hashoosh]

Oh ffs. unvote

Serial Killer: requires T

T + DDV + X + X + X

4 scum, 2 docs, 1 vig, +5 vanilla survivors. 12 roles.

T + DD + VV + CC is possible here.
If that's the case, 4 scum + 2 docs + 1 vig + 1 cop = 8. 5 vanilla survivors. Meaning Jabbz as a likely SK, Zak and Matt as the scum. Q as V, and Cat as C, and me as townie.

T + DDDD + VV is also possible, if a little odd.
If that's the case, 4 scum + 3 docs + 1 vig = 8. This means we've got a doctor lying about their role, and Catwalk could be doing that for some reason. Or he's scum with Zak and Matt as the other scum.

Any other possibilities with TDDV?

[zakalwe]

Take note of when Jabbz' last post was on day 2. 4 hours before the deadline. Well before the Goreripper vote picked up momentum.

Completely missing my point. I said a LONG time in advance that I would be voting for Azarius over Rowain, if it came to that. By keeping his vote on Rowain, Jabbz was in effect locking in the lynch so that it would come down to either Rowain or Azarius.

[Qgqqqqq]

I don't see a scenario in which Jabbz is scum. Therefore we have two to draw from Mattimeo, Catwalk, Zakalwe and Hasoosh. (I'm not sure why Hasoosh is assuming Catwalk is telling the truth.)

Lets look at combos then. Firstly, combos with Hasoosh:
Z/H - Hasoosh has been pushing for Zakalwe to swing all day, and Zak hasn't exactly buddied him. Whilst it is possible that some extreme bandwagoning was under way, I consider this very unlikely.
M/H - More plausible. Whilst Hasoosh has held him up as an eventual swing candidate, he has pushed Zakalwe much more - for no obvious reason - and the scum only need the one mislynch. Post 304 is in favor of this as Hasoosh is undecided on Gore (a good position to be in to jump off or on the wagon) and Matt as towny so he spreads his fellows a bit. Probably prejudices a little away from Catwalk. Odd how he doesn't mention Zakalwe. Mattimeo had been solidly on Goreripper for a very long time though, and would have had the hardest time jumping plausibly.
C/H - Most plausible. Catwalk has after all been pushing Zakalwe all day, Hasoosh for some reason jumped to the assumption of Catwalks innocence in one of his meta posts and in general the two have avoided one another. Their Day 2 spat is also a little odd, especially given post 296 where Catwalk says he only has a slight scum read on Hasoosh despite voting him for ages. The Goreripper push is also very fishy, given it happens so late in the day, C/H expressed it only as a slight suspicion and in general seemed quite open to jumping.

Now Catwalk on his own:
M/C - Possible. I don't know if we've seen any interaction here at all and certainly neither have been up for lynching all day. Neither seem to have had much suspicion on the other.
Z/C - Really quite unlikely, unless we assume big-time bandwagoning. I mean, it is possible that Catwalk planned to jump the wagon later or something, and he certainly pushed me more then Zakalwe in the middle because of the whole multi/single-shot thing, but I find it unlikely.

And Mattimeo:
Z/M - really little interaction. Opposite sides of the Rowain/Gore lynch. Doesn't seem paticularly likely or unlikely, no interaction tells to speak of. Matt had pushed Gore for ages which makes it seem pretty unlikely.

So C/H>M/H>M/C=M/Z>Z/C>Z/H. Hmm...