WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[Lewwyn]

CMF - I'm hesitant to join this anti-lewwyn train solely on the basis of him being an early pusher for cyne. Perhaps this is a bad reason.

That's also a good point, and I should have mentioned that in my write-up. I'm not at all sure if it's just that his posting style rubs me the wrong way, or if there's actually something there. That and the Gaspar posts are hard to reconcile, and it's difficult to work out all the implications of my Rowain-Lewwyn axis theory quite yet. That's why I feel most comfortable on Adrien right now.

And once again If both Rowain and I suspect Adrien why are you voting for Adrien if you think we're wolves?

[Lewwyn]

I really don't how AdrienIer is now suddenly town with no explanation. Or how did he put it "I started thinking what if AdrienIer is town" - but no quotes, no evidence to support that shift. I really want to know why AdrienIer is suddenly town.

Whoa whoa whoa I am NOT pro Adrien town. I simply said I was considering all angles. I do not like some of the people voting for Adrien so I want to think about the what if possiblities and not get locked in.

Adrien is scummy to me
Nauf is scummy to me
Scooter is scummy to me
Comm also is suspect

Both Comm and Scooter were voting for adrien and I didn't like it, I also said in that post that early votes were early and wolves could be voting for wolves early and then be jumping off later. I'm just looking at it holistically.

But yeah dude I think Adrien is scummy, I just don't want to get locked in in the first 12 hours of a 48 hour day.

[Commodore]

Crossposted, but...

Commodore has been quiet today as well - a summary of the night, a few thoughts, and voting scooter for being "slimy." Not a lot of reasons given. I think Scooter's argument that there must be 1 or 2 wolves among the Bob voters persuasive, and I also think that of those voters, Scooter, Commodore, and Adrien are the best. Mildly in his favor, though, is that he was super anti-Gaspar yesterday, which would be dumb if you were planning on killing him and outing him as town. WIFOM, though. Weak evidence. 

scooter started silly, but his actions have largely tracked with me. He has prodded low activity players without being aggressive about starting lynch trains, had an early town read on Grillo, and generally has had to my mind solid, clear logic (contrast with Lewwyn's explosions of pixels everywhere - ie scooter's thoughts on the mathematics of catching a day one wolf in your top two vote getters and the uselessness of language analysis on posts are both things I agree with). I thought he explained his vote for Bob and his vote for Adrien well. I was already a bit suspicious of Lewwyn, and then this exchange with scooter only made me more suspicious. 

Just as a note, the reason Scooter seems off to me is that he's acted frustrated/annoyed. Scooter never gets genuinely frustrated, the man is cool as a cucumber. Back in the foolish days when we played full-diplo PBEMs he was a holy terror, because he's such a genuinely affable, friendly, cheerful guy...but also ruthless. Lewwyn's great at getting under your skin if he wants to, but I don't see any of the exchanges they've had as being nearly enough to warrant that huff Scooter feigned.

[Lewwyn]

That said, scooter was also on my day 1 suspect list. I still don't see why the sudden shift away from AdrienIer. I agree that this attack on scooter is suspect. I've seen Lewwyn do this before, when he gets someone in his sights.

Also I didn't intend to vote for Scooter, I have been poking EVERYBODY today, but scooter's first post today felt really wolfy, and then I pressed him on it and there are clear contradictions between scooter's end of the day 1 posting and that first post today. It's really scummy and I pressed the argument and I don't like his response. And then he mischaracterized and FAKE NEWSed my arguments as he peaced out, tail between his legs.

[Lewwyn]

I have to come back to this post because there's just so much inconsistentness

Commodore has been quiet today as well - a summary of the night, a few thoughts, and voting scooter for being "slimy." Not a lot of reasons given. I think Scooter's argument that there must be 1 or 2 wolves among the Bob voters persuasive, and I also think that of those voters, Scooter, Commodore, and Adrien are the best. Mildly in his favor, though, is that he was super anti-Gaspar yesterday, which would be dumb if you were planning on killing him and outing him as town. WIFOM, though. Weak evidence. 

Comm quoted this but he didn't do enough to point this out. Here CMF is pointing out that he agrees with Scooter's argument that there could be 1-2 wolves among these bob voters. The he says they are most likely Scooter, Comm and Adrien. So CMF is defending Scooter and attacking me even though I'm suspicious and attacking all 3 of these people.

I just... there's not really any consistency here. I think that whether Adrien is a wolf or not, there are a lot of wolves voting for Adrien. And I'm beginning to think CMF might be one of them. He's consistently misrepresented me multiple times and disagreed with me, but he's not going to vote for me. He just wants to try and discredit me.

I'll tell you what, I can't tell if its intentional or not yet, but its consistent.

[GeneralKilCavalry]

The naufragar dossier.

#9
Random vote on pindicator, whatever (also, right after pindi voted on rowain

#14
Tells me not to do bad thing.

#30
The post where it all began. Nauf comments on Lewwyn's vote for no apparent reason, noting he didn't mention the self-vote, when Lewwyn's post quite literally quoted it. Then the wink at the end? Then, not voting for Serdoa as well just confounded everyone. Not necessarily scummy, just off...

#37
haha funny

#38
"I was just parking a vote on a vet. I found the Serdoa self-vote more fishy than Lewwyn not mentioning it, which was barely a tease-worthy blip."
Let's read into this, before proceeding to give nauf a bit of leeway. So, parking a vote on a vet when there's a vet who's also acted suspiciously is quite off. Then he mentions the whole situation is not worth mentioning as if to dismiss it. Ok then. But for now, let's say this is just banter. NOTE - this is another interaction between rowain and nauf.

#59
"I won't vote for you because it'll look bad on me"

#95
asks me and SD for our experience level

#161
A tirade about me, segueing away from serdoa. My reason was the exact same of rowain, and i wanted to apply further pressure? There's no problem with that, this is standard behavior. Thinks I am scummy for low-effort posts, but I really didn't believe in this Day 1 exploration, at least until I saw what was transpiring around SD and some of the lower-activity players, a lynch of some of whom could have given info. Also, frankly, your ENTIRE PLAY HAS BEEN DEFENSIVE. 20 pages in and you're still rambling about Serdoa, there's stuff from today to go over, and I find this somewhere between scummy and confounding.

#191 Early parking.

#196
 votes for third choice, but makes sense. Kind of just does what Rowain says. Again, a lot of interaction between these two. It's probably just coincidence, but the interaction is strange at the very least.

#263 -
wondering why serdoa jumped on the bus, like I'm pretty sure Serdoa's entire point was to be provocative, and he felt like you jumped onto his hook lmfao. I wrote before about this post in length, but Serdoa doesn't bend over backwards to do anything. This is just your imagination.

#312 - I like the cyne vote. You jump on it 5th tho, after rowain and serdoa, so this is not exonerating.

#349 - I don't like this interaction, but not in a bad-for-nauf-way, I think that's strange of you lewwyn. That response is totally ignorant of probably 20% of the discussion this game.


#449 Absolutely BS accusation leveled at serdoa - he voted 4th, you voted 5th, like this is a non-evidence point, like you're scraping the floor, this is circumstantial at best.

These aren't all the posts, but this sums it up. I believe your behavior has not been scummy, not been towny, but absolutely confusing. Someone help out, because this side story between me, serdoa, and nauf has not been the subject of discussion, while, I believe, less important stories have been. There's a lot to dig through here.

Today, I think it's just blatantly scummy what scooter is doing. I didn't like CMF's mega-post very much either, btw - more on this later.

[Lewwyn]

Hey GKC, This post is one I've been holding in my mind:

Lewwyn, I don’t want to blow the you-Rowain molehill into a mountain, but honestly, I feel like venting. As far as I can tell, the RB meta is about past history and “tone,” which is completely crazy to me. My argument, although that’s even too strong a word, was this:

Rowain, after a series of questions that I thought were good and based on good reads, makes a pretty glaring misread. He does this after, as I said in my post where I voted for Cyneheard, I was hoping to see what happened to the bus on Bob. He moves away from Cyne to you, which puts Bob back in the lead.

All that is eyebrow raising, but you don’t call him out, so Serdoa and I, and maybe others, find that strange. You claim that you laugh at him instead of calling him out, but when questioned by Serdoa, you don’t call it a misread. You explain that it was a misread, but the aggression you’ve displayed this game is absent. I was surprised by Rowain, confused by you.

Nothing in the above is based on nebulous tone or past history.

You come back at me with 1) some unverifiable stories about the good old days and how you can read people that way and 2) you wonder if I’m trying to buddy up with Serdoa and swing on you and Rowain, despite me saying the exact opposite. “Yes you "hated" doing it. That makes it feel more "genuine" and more impactful because you're stressing that you are going against your early reads.” This is tone BS. I laid out what I thought was weird. You don’t like that I didn’t do it in an appropriate voice.

This is a pretty good comeback but its funny because this RB meta attacking RB meta. This feels like a vet wolf told nauf how to respond to me. I didn't respond to it at the time because I just couldn't spare the tiime during that hectic end of the day, but this smells like wolf coaching to me.

[scooter]

I think I've cooled off a bit.

The post above, though, is a great example of what I'm talking about. Lewwyn misintreprets Scooter's argument here, and I'm not sure if it's wilful or not. scooter wasn't saying "If Bob is a wolf, 100% chance L is, mathematical certainty," he was saying that Bob and Lewwyn's wolfiness was linked in his mind - ie, if Bob was a wolf, Lewwyn almost certainly was also, in his mind. Then, he throws in some subtle insinuations - "the fact that you exaggerate my play to make your stance seem more reasonable is telling." Telling of what? scooter thinking Lewwyn was loudly off the Bob train is scummy? I dunno, this is an aside, but I never like eyebrow waggling in posts. I prefer to be direct about my beliefs, think its' more helpful for all. 

Then he continues to misinterpet - "You are still saying that those reads and thinking about a players post matter. This is a bit contradictory wouldn't you say?...You're seemingly arguing that in the end it doesn't matter what we do on Day 1 which is just perposterous." Not how I read scooter at all - scooter is saying that on Day 1, who gets lynched is mostly a matter of randomness, because there's no hard data. The arguments and posts on Day 1 aren't pointless, though, because they're grist for the mill on Day 2 as data starts to come in. That seems...pretty elementary. 

Thank you. I was beginning to think I was crazy or somehow failing at the English language spectacularly to cause someone to not understand a lot of simple logic. I feel better. Pretty much every sentence of this is a perfect explanation for what I was trying to say. I genuinely don't know if Lewwyn just sees/reads this game so differently from me that he doesn't understand this, or if he's purposely misunderstanding me for some other reason, but this is summary is accurate from my perspective. I'm going to leave this stuff be and temporarily ignore Lewwyn for now because it's like 6 posts past productive. I'm going to keep my vote on him for now. It was an emotional vote and not a brain vote. I don't know which to follow right now, so I'll let others who are less invested decide what they think about Lewwyn's play so far this day. I'm torn between my head which says Lewwyn wolf would be surprising versus the feeling like I'm being trolled by a wolf who spies an easy mislynch target.

Just as a note, the reason Scooter seems off to me is that he's acted frustrated/annoyed. Scooter never gets genuinely frustrated, the man is cool as a cucumber. Back in the foolish days when we played full-diplo PBEMs he was a holy terror, because he's such a genuinely affable, friendly, cheerful guy...but also ruthless. Lewwyn's great at getting under your skin if he wants to, but I don't see any of the exchanges they've had as being nearly enough to warrant that huff Scooter feigned.

In general you aren't wrong, and I take a lot of this as a compliment... But there's something about this game that gets under my skin way more easily. You'll notice if you look at the pbemlist that I played a bunch of the first 13 WW games, and then 0 after that. I had a good winning record too, so I had a knack for it, but man it bothered me in a way Civ diplo never did. Fun fact: I told Brick privately pre-game that if one of two people joined, I was backing out. That's right, I have my own The List. All the cool kids have one. Anyway, the difference is that in this game, I don't know motivations. I can understand why someone is being a dick in a Civ game because I can identify their win conditions and motivations. Here if someone is being a dick, it's impossible to know if they're arguing in good faith or if they are literally trolling you because that benefits their game. Or if they're unintentionally arguing in bad faith because they've already made up their mind. Same reason I bowed out of the politics thread here. People behave a lot more rationally in Civ games despite some of the more spectacular blowups we've seen on rare occasion.

I also really want to hear scooter's non-Lewwyn thoughts.

So, let's try this. Chevalier's post makes a lot of sense to me. Perhaps I was slightly biased by the fact that it started with him defending me, but also it's clear we think the game the same. I'm trying to not let that be a blind spot, but I think his analysis has been really good. That said, I do have a question for him:


Chevalier, Any particular reason you voted for and kept your vote on Superdeath? The vote basically had 3 camps. Bob's vote was a villager mad at Lewwyn. Sounds familiar. Cyneheard was a wolf throwing his vote down on an off-target. Chevalier is the only other outlier we don't have an explanation for. Do you think your vote was good still?


I have to confess that I've been assuming in my head Meiz is a villager for meta reasons. The fact that he was on the right person in the vote has sort of "confirmed" that in my head, even if it shoudn't. I think wolves would have convinced thrawn to stick around. Maybe I should drop that line of thinking, because it's not necessarily true. Just feels like a good bet, and he's given me no reason to suspect otherwise yet.


Rowain has felt suspect to me, but I don't have a good reason for it, and I'm doubting that gut instinct because I remember playing with him in the past and always felt he was a bit of an enigma whose style I never really followed. So that may just be clashing of styles. That said, it feels like a good chance there's a wolf on Adrien, and gun to my head, I'd guess him. For the other two on him, I don't really have a read on you (pindicator) one way or another. Charriu should not be allowed to play with that avatar, because I find it difficult to suspect someone who writes calm, rational posts while sporting a smiley stick figure avatar. Nothing he's said has ever raised my eyebrows, but he's got a very calm personality, so maybe he could pull it off.


I'd like to see AdrienIer's reactions to the night phase. I could of course move my vote back onto him, but I don't see much point until he gives his thoughts on what it all means and what's next.

[GeneralKilCavalry]

Hey GKC, This post is one I've been holding in my mind:

Lewwyn, I don’t want to blow the you-Rowain molehill into a mountain, but honestly, I feel like venting. As far as I can tell, the RB meta is about past history and “tone,” which is completely crazy to me. My argument, although that’s even too strong a word, was this:

Rowain, after a series of questions that I thought were good and based on good reads, makes a pretty glaring misread. He does this after, as I said in my post where I voted for Cyneheard, I was hoping to see what happened to the bus on Bob. He moves away from Cyne to you, which puts Bob back in the lead.

All that is eyebrow raising, but you don’t call him out, so Serdoa and I, and maybe others, find that strange. You claim that you laugh at him instead of calling him out, but when questioned by Serdoa, you don’t call it a misread. You explain that it was a misread, but the aggression you’ve displayed this game is absent. I was surprised by Rowain, confused by you.

Nothing in the above is based on nebulous tone or past history.

You come back at me with 1) some unverifiable stories about the good old days and how you can read people that way and 2) you wonder if I’m trying to buddy up with Serdoa and swing on you and Rowain, despite me saying the exact opposite. “Yes you "hated" doing it. That makes it feel more "genuine" and more impactful because you're stressing that you are going against your early reads.” This is tone BS. I laid out what I thought was weird. You don’t like that I didn’t do it in an appropriate voice.

This is a pretty good comeback but its funny because this RB meta attacking RB meta. This feels like a vet wolf told nauf how to respond to me. I didn't respond to it at the time because I just couldn't spare the tiime during that hectic end of the day, but this smells like wolf coaching to me.

Why would you accuse Nauf of buddying up with Serdoa?

[Charriu]

That fallout between Lewwyn and scooter is really illuminating. I have to say that both don't look so good there, both with good and bad points. All in all this makes me distrusting both of them more. I especially don't like that attack by Lewwyn against Chevalier, who made a good and sensible case about what is happened. I'm observing how this continues and reserve a final judgement for later.