[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[ljubljana]

Turn 112 - Phoenicia



Builder-wise, things are finally starting to come together over here. Linear A finishes its lighthouse and starts the next trader, finally escaping housing jail - working the fish and horses, it is set to grow in 7. Linear B hits size 3 and the housing cap, so it swaps to double lumbermill + niter to finish the lighthouse in 4. After ages sitting at 9 hpt and not growing, Hieratic is turning the corner too, with 13 hpt now and more to come from the mine + lumbermill in the next two turns. Demotic is about to hit size 4 for another hammer boost, and Abugida will get the niter in two turns to hit 12 base hammers itself. Even Runic finishes its Cothon and starts a very slow lighthouse.

I think I want to finish Mercenaries in 4 turns, which would require you to finish it for the boost in 3 - is that feasible? That will let me time the swap out of Veterancy with the two lighthouse builds completing - Hieratic, Cuneiform, and Linear B will then all start boosted quads. I may need to delay Square Rigging a turn or two to make sure I have enough quads to keep my niter low upon its completion - do you know the frequency with which my quad builds will be auto-upgraded when I hit 20 niter or when the tech comes in? It'd be fine if I do have to delay a bit, though, with Cartography now also due in 6 and (barely) guaranteed to come in before TAD can attack.



TAD/Kaiser finally tips their hand about who their target might be, at least a little bit, at least I hope so. If this is true, we'll need to think pretty carefully about whether to offer that DoF in 5 turns, which would secure us against an attack but would give TAD a totally free hand with which to try this. If TAD and CMF get bogged down in a long war or one that mostly involves Australian cities getting razed, that's worth doing to buy 20 turns of development, but if CMF collapses it probably won't be. I imagine it's probably worth it on balance, though, both because we really need to not be their target and because that frees up my soon-to-exist frigates and tiny handful of ground troops to possibly mess with the still incredibly underdefended China.

TAD also made 169 gold this turn, which, assuming no other new expenses or sources of income, would put the Cuneiform TR yields at 22 gpt each. With 88 gpt coming from TRs to me and no obvious other city to replace them, one can only hope TAD will be at least a little dissuaded from coming after us for fear of an economic crash...

Reminder to future me: you should start moving the ground troops at Writing on the Wall back to the mainland ASAP in case you do need them against China in 14t. If not, you can always move them for 5 turns now and then 5 turns back if TAD rejects the DoF extension. Maybe Lief Erickson too, although moving him away could be read by TAD as a sign of weakness.

[Woden]

I can switch to Mercenaries in 2 turns. Quads will auto upgrade to frigates once you hit 20 niter. Not sure if it is random in which city will upgrade if you have multiple builds.

I think I will send Kaiser and TAD DoFs this turn to test the waters. We can always have you offer them DoFs further down the road if we want staggered DoFs. My thinking is if we get another 30 turns and they turn on marco/CMF, then we can jump in earlier if it goes sideways between them, i.e. not letting them get 30 turns of unopposed conquering. What do you think?

Also, with the boost to berserkers, it might be a good idea for me to build a landing force. They still get a -5 CS to defense of melee attacks but still have their +10 CS to attacking and 4 MP when starting in enemy territory. That will be good for pillaging.

[ljubljana]

DoFs to TAD/Kaiser next turn sound good to me. I also like building some berserkers given ther recent buffs, especially since it’s tough for me to justify spending time on anything other than more ships for the immediate future. I’d say it depends on whether berserker builds would come at the cost of campus or other essential economic builds and the timescale on which we’d want to attack China if TAD accepts the DoF.

[ljubljana]

Turn 113 - Phoenicia



Nsibidi founded. The new city borrows the wheat from Demotic to get to size 2, then will work double lumbermills until its monument finishes to get its food supply online. I was going to have the builder from this city trek south to Oracle Bones, which needs 4 builder charges soonish and has no reasonable pathway towards making a builder itself, but now I think I'll need the charges in the core. Geneva finally finished its builder this turn; maybe after the lighthouse and walls, it will have time to make a builder for poor Oracle Bones (and to hook up its last fish). I also now have a positive faith income for what is essentially the first time all game! Just another million turns until I can combine it with Jesuit Education to buy a library somewhere .

At Runic, I hook up an excess marble, which I immediately offer to swap to CMF for amber, since the new city's founding dropped a few spots below +3. It will hook up the pearls next for housing at Runic and to enable another lux trade with MPF. All else being equal, I'd rather prop up the CMF/MPF team with luxes than any of the others, since they're the least likely to cut us off via warfare and seem to be in the most danger geopolitically. I also get a lumbermill at Hieratic and fishing boats at Linear B; the Demotic builder is out of things to do there and so is embarking upon a long journey west to Linear B's unimproved plains hills.

I need to remember to check these island cities (Writing on the Wall, Geneva) to see if they're capable of even +1 campus spots. I'm not sure the +0 campus at Mitla is worth building, but I'm going to badly need campuses just about everywhere else in 25t when the age rolls over...

[Woden]

Turn 113-Vikings
My second campus completes at Odin, adding 10 to my empire (+5 adjacency, running natural philosophy). I will have 2 libraries finish in 4 turns and I finally won't be so pitiful in science (might even be above China). Here is my core...
   

Both Kaiser and TAD rejected my friendship offer, or at least TAD did. Didn't get a notification for Kaiser rejecting it. I am pretty sure TAD is gunning for us when the DoF ends. One good thing is that I doubt Kaiser will be much help to him. Our empires are relatively north-south and we are both close to TAD. Their empire looks to be east-west and Kaiser's cities are a fair distance from the battlefield. I will complete Apprenticeship and Mercenaries next turn and should have Square Rigging complete by the time war breaks out, especially with you giving me the boost. With my policy change next turn, I am thinking of swapping my eastern cities to quads while my western cities builds walls. I would like to get the harbors and lighthouses done for more trade routes but I think we will need more boats to slow down any attack from TAD. Maybe I will have Odin build its harbor and lighthouse for an extra bit of gold. We will see.

[ljubljana]

Turn 114 - Phoenicia



Domestically, nothing really happens. I hook up the second niter and make a few mines and lumbermills, shaving a turn off the Hieratic lighthouse in particular. CMF accepts my second lux swap to stave off contentedness for a few more turns. But the real news of the turn is...



TAD states their price for renewing the DoF. I reject it this turn so we can talk about it...but, unfortunately, I think we should seriously consider ultimately caving here. It could be a bluff, and, indeed, I'm not sure it actually makes much sense for TAD to attack us rather than CMF when the DoF ends other than for revenge purposes, since we will probably have no other opponents to face, we're providing half their GPT from Cuneiform trade routes, and I will have two GAs compared to CMF's zero when the DoF ends. On the other hand...it would make sense to attack me as part of a multi-game long strategy by TAD to discourage early attacks by being the game-long enemy of whoever attacks them, which seems consistent with their playstyle and is probably what I would do in a similar situation unless there was a really compelling strategic reason to attack my other neighbor instead.

TAD will definitely outnumber me in Renaissance ships due to their gold income, and their ships will win their individual matchups as well due to the Rajendra Chola buff and Oligarchic Legacy. I also do think Kaiser will be able to help TAD out, even if their reinforcements take a few turns to arrive, since they have a decent milpower and gold income and have been saving for upgrades. If TAD does come for us, I don't really see a realistic way to hold Writing on the Wall or even Geneva, and I also think there's a fair chance my navy will just get outmassed and destroyed and the game will be over.

If we concede Writing on the Wall now, we can at least preserve Geneva, which is a much stronger city, and have a fair chance to remain competitive with an attack against weak China with mass-upgraded frigates. If we stand and fight, we are calling TAD's bluff - we might save WotW if they bow to geopolitical reality and attack CMF, but if they come for us, we will probably lose WotW anyways and at the very least will be trapped in a war for survival from which we have very little to gain.

On balance, I think giving up WotW for another DoF and using it to attack China gives us the best odds to stay competitive and retain a chance to ultimately win this game. If this were an FFA, though, I would reject TAD's demands and prepare for war, not because I think it's the best play but because I need to rebut the notion that I can be bullied or intimidated into giving back cities for the sake of my competitiveness in future PBEMs. However, this is not an FFA game and you have no such perception to need to counteract. What do you think?

[Woden]

If you think it is worth it, go for it. It might be, especially if you don't think you can hold it from an attack from TAD. It does open up access to the rest of your empire for future invasions but it still might be worth it if we can make gains against China.

There is no guarantee he will extend the DoF and just seeing if he can bully you into giving him a city for free before he attacks. Tough call. I do think we will be in better shape down the road and the city is not really that good except for its position on the map. I also think that is why TAD will go after us. The city is not only the gateway to your empire but the gateway to his. He can't let us get stronger and have that doorway open to launch an attack on him. In the end, I think it is more important for him that it is to us, since it is right off his coast.

I would prefer to build a bit more and get stronger. If I have to go into full war mode, I am going to lose any gains I have made over the last 10 turns because I will need to build ships instead of harbors and lighthouses. In 15 -20 turns, I could have 7 trade routes going to your capital at 22 gold a piece but not if I have to build ships.

In the end, it might be better to redirect TAD elsewhere.

[ljubljana]

Yeah, ugh, I don't know. I do think TAD is more likely to attack CMF than us in the abstract because it will be much easier for them to make gains there. Do we want to secure that by giving up a city, though? I think it depends on a) how likely we think it is that TAD will come for us if we don't and b) whether we actually think we can realistically use the DoF to make gains against China. I do think we could take a few Chinese cities if they don't see it coming or don't have the money and resources to counter it, but as to whether we could hold them against loyalty pressure, I'm not entirely sure. We'll probably have 6-8 frigates and a handful of caravels when our DoFs lapse...do you think that's enough with the GA boost to really make a dent in China, enough so that taking the chance to go after them is worth giving up a city to TAD? I'm really not sure...if this were a land war the answer would be "of course not" for loyalty reasons, but if we can take 2-3 cities quickly with frigates, maybe that will give enough of a loyalty buffer that we'd be able to actually hold onto them. It's kind of hard to see that play ending in a complete conquest of China and Indonesia, though, since even if we can take 4-5 Chinese cities, I doubt we'd be able to finish their team off before the others are freed up to attack us again. That's not really the kind of slam-dunk conquest that's likely to be worth giving up a city for, and if we're just giving up the city to get more time to develop, I think we'll fall behind TAD anyways when they use the 30t to make major gains against CMF. Not to mention the lurkers will never let me live it down if I give up a city for free without a clear plan for how to benefit from it, nor will anyone take me seriously as a credible military threat in future PBEMs .

If we do decide to give up WotW, I guess the thing to do would be to have you re-propose DoFs on your turn and have me offer the city on mine. They might take the city and ignore the DoF, but surely they will anticipate that a response like that can only provoke eternal war from us for the rest of the game. I don't think they'd win the game if that happened, since CMF will grow very strong in the meantime and conquering us will be nontrivial and will take some time, so hopefully the prospect of that would dissuade them from stabbing us like that.

[ljubljana]

What if I offer to sell Writing on the Wall to TAD for like 600 gold or so? Is that an insane idea? If accepted it would defuse the biggest sticking point between us, free up gold for badly-needed upgrades on my end, and defuse a substantial portion of the force TAD might use to go after us on the other end. I can also ask for 1 diplo favor for 1 diplo favor and have you re-offer the DoF on the same turn to try to imply that I view the extension as part of the deal as well. Maybe 600 is too much for there to actually be a reasonable chance of them taking it though...

[Woden]

TAD will come after us if we don't accept the deal. No reason not too. CMF is not that far ahead that it would warrant leaving us alone. Another 9 turns of gold from your capital will give him enough for 10 frigates, so he won't need to continue with the trade routes and Kaiser could be working to get a similar type city going right now to compensate for the lost gold.

The question is "Do you want to fight TAD or do you want to attack China?" I don't think he would accept the offer to buy the city when he could just conquer it in a few turns. I am pretty sure he would rather go after CMF but can't let you having the city left unchecked. This is basically a threat, the city or war.

I think we will be better off going after China but can understand not wanting to give up a city without any shots fired.